Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction, Picks & Odds | 04 Jan 2026

NFL Betting Preview: Dolphins vs Patriots

The Miami Dolphins go up against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 16:25 on Sunday, January 4.

The Dolphins look capable of avoiding a heavy defeat against the Patriots and we’re happy to bet them against the spread. The underdogs can comfortably cover +11.5 and this can be backed at -115.

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Miami Dolphins previous game saw them claim a 20-17 home win over Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins totaled 298 yards, split between 153 passing and 145 rushing yards. The offense moved the chains 13 times along with two touchdowns.

New England Patriots won last time out by a 42-10 scoreline. On the road against New York Jets at MetLife Stadium, they made it back-to-back wins. The Patriots generated 440 total yards, made up of 285 passing and 155 rushing yards. The offense picked up 28 first downs along with 6 touchdowns.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Patriots won the most recent matchup between these teams. A 33-27 victory was registered against the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. We’ve seen eight Dolphins wins in the past 10 meetings between the teams.

Quarterbacks

Quinn Ewers

196.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Drake Maye

246.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction & Picks

We cover the essential Dolphins vs Patriots betting angles, featuring our main match prediction, correct score pick, top player prop plays and a carefully crafted bet builder.

Game Prediction

We’ll take a chance on the Dolphins at +11.5 to outrun their odds on the spread. The underdogs are a good shout at -115 to stay relatively close to their opponents in this NFL matchup.

The NFL handicappers at Sportsgambler.com start by analyzing recent form and staying on top of injury news before making any predictions. From there, we interpret the story the stats are telling to help shape our picks.

Key Dolphins vs Patriots stats:

• The +11.5 line has been covered by Dolphins in 14 of their last 20 games.
• The +11.5 line has been covered by Dolphins in 11 of their last 16 games this season.
• The -11.5 line hasn’t been covered by Patriots in 16 of their last 20 games at home.
• The -11.5 line hasn’t been covered by Patriots in 10 of their last 16 games this season.
• The -11.5 line hasn’t been covered by Patriots in 10 consecutive games against Dolphins.

Dolphins +11.5 Probability

Based on the odds from the top NFL betting sites, there’s a 53.5% likelihood of our pick delivering a return. After careful examination, our cappers have this probability close to 60%. This wager can therefore be backed with confidence.

If you’re hunting for tastier odds, then a Bet Builder could be the perfect way to go. Combine the Dolphins to cover the line with other picks until you’re happy with the overall price.

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Our Game Prediction

Dolphins +11.5 @ -115 Watch Live Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Quinn Ewers Over 196.5 Passing Yards -114

Quinn Ewers (Dolphins) is priced at -114 to surpass 196.5 passing yards. The line for him on the Overs is highly appealing, with QB Passing Yards bettors able to get plenty of juice.

Latest Quinn Ewers Player Prop Odds

Passing Yards

Over 196.5

-114

Under 196.5

-114

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Rhamondre Stevenson Over 32.5 Rushing Yards -114

The odds for Rhamondre Stevenson (Dolphins) to go beyond 32.5 rushing yards stand at -114. We feel confident that he’ll cover the Player Rushing Yards line, which looks generous.

Latest Rhamondre Stevenson Player Prop Odds

Rushing Yards

Over 32.5

-114

Under 32.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

Dolphins 21 - 27 Patriots

A 27-21 victory for the Patriots is clearly a risky wager although this could be an exciting correct score pick where there’s the chance to enjoy a huge potential return.

Dolphins vs Patriots Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

The latest Moneyline betting odds give New England Patriots a 87% chance of winning this game which means they’re overwhelming -667 favorites with the sportsbooks. Miami Dolphins are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +480.

The spread currently stands at 11.5 and the total points line is 45.5. There is no denying the popularity of betting on the Totals. Those who wager Under 45.5 can get -120.

National Football League fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of game lines and team props which are available for every game on the coupon. Visit the top betting apps and find the best value wagers.

Moneyline

Dolphins

+480

Patriots

-667

Point Spread

Dolphins +11.5

-115

Patriots -11.5

-105

Total Points

Under 45.5

-120

Over 45.5

-102

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

Over 52.5

-114

Under 52.5

-114

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 46.5

-114

Under 46.5

-114

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

Over 29.5

-114

Under 29.5

-114

Rushing Yards

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 58.5

-114

Under 58.5

-114

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 32.5

-114

Under 32.5

-114

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

Passing Yards

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 246.5

-114

Under 246.5

-114

Quinn Ewers (Dolphins)

Over 196.5

-114

Under 196.5

-114

Patriots Have Won Six of Their Last Ten Home Games

The Patriots are 6-4 in their last 10 home games, putting up 24.60 points on average and giving up 21.00.

The Dolphins own a 3-7 mark in their past 10 road games, averaging 19.40 points scored and 22.50 points allowed.

In their most recent matchup at Gillette Stadium, the Dolphins got the better of the Patriots 15-10. In the last 6 head-to-head matchups at Gillette Stadium, the Dolphins have notched four victories, while the Patriots have recorded two.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O45.5	U45.5
Patriots Home Stats		6-4	45.60	24.60	21.00	5	5
Dolphins Away Stats		3-7	41.90	19.40	22.50	3	7

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O45.5 = Games Over 45.5 Points
• U45.5 = Games Under 45.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Miami Dolphins Stats

New England Patriots Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +11.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +11.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -11.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -11.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 41.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 41.90 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 45.5: Covered in 1 of the previous 10 games
• Over 45.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 20.30 pts and allowed 21.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 19.40 pts and allowed 22.50 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 49.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 45.60 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 45.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 45.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 30.20 pts and allowed 19.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 24.60 pts and allowed 21.00 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 319.90 Yds. Allowed 313.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 143.30 Yds. Allowed 99.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 176.60 Yds. Allowed 213.90 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.10 TD. Allowed 2.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.90 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.80. Allowed 18.40
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.40. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.60. Committed by opponents 5.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 47.30 Yds. Gained 44.20 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 397.60 Yds. Allowed 290.40 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 139.90 Yds. Allowed 116.50 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 257.70 Yds. Allowed 173.90 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.50 TD. Allowed 2.40 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.00. Allowed 17.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.90. Committed by opponents 1.00
• Total Penalties: Committed 4.20. Committed by opponents 5.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 39.10 Yds. Gained 37.80 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 277.40 Yds. Allowed 299.00 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 103.00 Yds. Allowed 121.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 174.40 Yds. Allowed 178.00 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.20 TD. Allowed 2.60 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.80. Allowed 18.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.70. Committed by opponents 1.00
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.70. Committed by opponents 6.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 56.80 Yds. Gained 50.30 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 337.10 Yds. Allowed 293.90 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 117.30 Yds. Allowed 108.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 219.80 Yds. Allowed 185.50 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.80 TD. Allowed 2.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.90. Allowed 18.40
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 0.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.80. Committed by opponents 5.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 48.10 Yds. Gained 43.50 Yds

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