New England Patriots
American Football NFL Highmark Stadium Sun 5 Oct 20:20
Buffalo Bills
  1. Prediction
  2. Bet Builder
  3. Odds
  4. Player Props
  5. Stats
  6. Live Stream
  7. Team News
  8. Lineups
  9. Injuries
  10. Standings

NFL Betting Preview: Patriots vs Bills

The New England Patriots clash with the Buffalo Bills in this NFL Week 5 matchup at Highmark Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 20:20 on Sunday 5 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, updated betting odds, head-to-head stats and the latest team news, including injuries.

Our Best Bet is Bills on the Spread

We’re backing the Bills against the spread when they face the Patriots. It could be shrewd to bet on them to cover the appealing -8.5 line, with odds of -108 on offer.

Feeling good about our ATS pick? Grab the best BetMGM promo code and check out our comprehensive site review before you jump in.

7 Wins for Bills in Last 10 H2H Matchups

New England Patriots claimed a victory in their previous game. A 42-13 home win occurred against Carolina Panthers at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots put up 307 yards, split between 203 passing and 104 rushing yards. The offense managed 16 first downs and reached the end zone 6 times, 2 via the pass and 3 on the ground.

Buffalo Bills won their last game 31-19, making it four victories on the bounce. This was a home win at Highmark Stadium against New Orleans Saints. The Bills generated 356 total yards, made up of 191 passing and 165 rushing yards. They converted for 20 first downs and produced 4 touchdowns, with 2 through the air and 2 on the ground.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Patriots won the most recent matchup between these teams. A 23-16 victory was registered against the Bills at Gillette Stadium. The Bills have won seven of the past 10 games that these teams have played.

Quarterbacks

Patriots vs Bills Prediction & Picks

Get the full betting picture for Patriots vs Bills, including a key match prediction, our best correct score selection, top player prop picks and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

We are confident that the Bills will cover the spread in this NFL matchup. -8.5 seems a generous line and you can get -108 that the favorites will win by a bigger margin.

Sportsgambler.com brings strong NFL expertise, built on knowing the team news as soon as it’s confirmed. Recent form plays a big part in our predictions and we always back it up with the most relevant stats.

Key Patriots vs Bills stats:

  • The -8.5 line has been covered by Bills in 3 consecutive games.
  • The -8.5 line has been covered by Bills in 6 of their last 10 games at home.
  • The -8.5 line has been covered by Bills in 11 of their last 20 games at home.

Bills -8.5 Probability

If you go by the top betting sites, there’s a 51.8% likelihood of our pick landing a return. However, our in-depth research has found that the actual probability is between 55-60%. This is why we can recommend this bet.

Looking for Bigger Odds?

If you’re in pursuit of bigger odds, then a Bet Builder could be a way forward. Take the Bills to cover the line with additional selections until you’re satisfied with the price.

Start your betting journey with value. Our guide features the best free bets and sign-up bonuses available today.

Best Bet

Bills -8.5 @ -108 Watch Live Bet Now BetMGM logo
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Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.
Published 02:26, 04 October 2025

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Josh Allen Over 225.5 Passing Yards -114 BetMGM logo

Josh Allen (Bills) is available at -114 to record more than 225.5 passing yards. We believe it makes sense to stick with him on the Over and bettors can be confident in this QB Passing Yards pick.

Latest Josh Allen Player Prop Odds

Keon Coleman Anytime TD +170 BetMGM logo

Keon Coleman (Bills) is priced at +170 to hit the end zone. We’re happy to take the odds that he’ll score at least one touchdown in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.

Latest Keon Coleman Player Prop Odds

Same Game Parlay Picks

Spread Bills -8.5
Totals Over 49.5
Passing Yards Josh Allen Over 225.5

Try out our same game parlay pick which starts with Bills -8.5. We’ve also gone for Over 49.5 points and Josh Allen (Bills) to go Over 225.5 passing yards.

The same game parlay option is great for bettors wanting a personalised multi-leg wager on the same football game. It’s especially good if you have a strong view on the likely outcomes and the odds for each pick are combined.

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Correct Score Prediction

Patriots Patriots logo 17 - 35 Bills logo Bills

There are stacks of correct score lines on offer and we’re looking at the Bills to achieve a winning scoreline of 35-17 where a huge potential return is on the cards.

Patriots vs Bills Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Bills Heavy Favorites in Eyes of the Books

According to the Moneyline betting odds, Buffalo Bills are red-hot -400 favorites with the sportsbooks and that means a 80% chance of winning this game. New England Patriots are the underdogs at +320 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

The current spread is 8.5 and the total points line is 49.5. There are many ways to bet on the NFL including the Totals. If you fancy Under 49.5, then the odds are -110.

You’ll find a huge variety of game lines and team props for every matchup. The top NFL sportsbooks provide an impressive mix of pre-game and in-game options to suit your betting style.

James Cook Favorite to Score First TD

The First TD Scorer favorite is James Cook at +340. Similar odds can be found if you’re interested in this player to register the last touchdown.

Touchdown

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)
Over 47.5
-114
Under 47.5
-114
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Khalil Shakir (Bills)
Over 43.5
-114
Under 43.5
-114
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Hunter Henry (Patriots)
Over 40.5
-114
Under 40.5
-114
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Rushing Yards

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)
Over 32.5
-114
Under 32.5
-114
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Drake Maye (Patriots)
Over 29.5
-114
Under 29.5
-114
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Passing Yards

Best Betting Offers
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Bills Keep Cashing In at Home

The Bills have ten wins and zero loss in the last 10 home games, posting 32.00 points per contest while yielding 20.50.

The Patriots have gone 3-7 across their last 10 road games, posting 17.00 points per contest while yielding 23.40.

When the teams last met at Highmark Stadium, the Bills beat the Patriots 24-21. Over the last 7 head-to-head meetings at Highmark Stadium, the Bills have claimed five wins compared to the Patriots who have two.

Last 10 Games W-L P PF PA O49.5 U49.5
Bills logo Bills Home Stats 10-0 52.50 32.00 20.50 7 3
Patriots logo Patriots Away Stats 3-7 40.40 17.00 23.40 1 9
  • W-L = Wins-Losses
  • P = Avg. Points
  • PF = Avg. Points For
  • PA = Avg. Points Against
  • O49.5 = Games Over 49.5 Points
  • U49.5 = Games Under 49.5 Points
Team Stats

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

New England Patriots logo New England Patriots Stats
Buffalo Bills logo Buffalo Bills Stats
Moneyline
  • 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
  • 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
Moneyline
  • 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
  • 10 wins and 0 defeats in the last 10 home games
Point Spread
Point Spread
Total Points
Total Points
Game Stats
Last 10 Games
Game Stats
Last 10 Games
Last 10 Games on the Road
Last 10 Home Games

Live Streaming

You can watch and bet on NFL games thanks to the live streaming service that’s available. This is only available to eligible sportsbook customers and is subject to geo-restrictions.

You can log into your betting account on a daily basis and enjoy the chance to access high quality streams.

Team News

New England Patriots Injuries

Type
Name
Info
K'Lavon Chaisson
Knee
Carlton Davis
Illness
Marcellas Dial
Knee - ACL
Yasir Durant
Undisclosed
Isaiah Iton
Hip
Brock Lampe
Undisclosed
Lan Larison
Foot
Deneric Prince
Undisclosed
Layden Robinson
Undisclosed
Jaquelin Roy
Undisclosed
Wes Schweitzer
Undisclosed
Jahlani Tavai
Calf
Milton Williams
Ankle

Buffalo Bills Injuries

Type
Name
Info
Tyler Bass
Hip
Spencer Brown
Calf
DeWayne Carter
Achilles
Tylan Grable
Concussion
Maxwell Hairston
Knee
Michael Hoecht
Suspension
Cameron Johnston
Foot
Matt Milano
Pectoral
Larry Ogunjobi
Suspension
Ed Oliver
Ankle
Wande Owens
Undisclosed
T.J. Sanders
Knee
Dorian Strong
Neck
Dorian Williams
Knee

Previous New England Patriots Lineups

28 Sep NFL
Panthers 13-42 Patriots
21 Sep NFL
Steelers 21-14 Patriots
14 Sep NFL
Patriots 33-27 Dolphins
07 Sep NFL
Raiders 20-13 Patriots
05 Jan NFL
Bills 16-23 Patriots
28 Dec NFL
Chargers 40-7 Patriots
22 Dec NFL
Patriots 21-24 Bills
15 Dec NFL
Patriots 17-30 Cardinals
01 Dec NFL
Colts 25-24 Patriots
24 Nov NFL
Patriots 15-34 Dolphins

Previous Buffalo Bills Lineups

28 Sep NFL
Saints 19-31 Bills
18 Sep NFL
Dolphins 21-31 Bills
14 Sep NFL
Bills 30-10 Jets
07 Sep NFL
Ravens 40-41 Bills
26 Jan NFL Playoffs
Bills 29-32 Chiefs
19 Jan NFL Playoffs
Ravens 25-27 Bills
12 Jan NFL Playoffs
Broncos 7-31 Bills
05 Jan NFL
Bills 16-23 Patriots
29 Dec NFL
Jets 14-40 Bills
22 Dec NFL
Patriots 21-24 Bills

NFL Standings Select Season

AFC East W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Bills 4 0 0 1.000 133 90 43 3-0-0 1-0-0 2-0-0 3-0-0 4-0-0 4W
Patriots 2 2 0 0.500 102 81 21 1-2-0 1-0-0 1-0-0 1-2-0 2-2-0 1W
Dolphins 1 3 0 0.250 83 118 -35 1-1-0 0-2-0 1-2-0 1-3-0 1-3-0 1W
Jets 0 4 0 0.000 90 120 -30 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-3-0 0-4-0 4L
AFC North W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Steelers 3 1 0 0.750 96 98 -2 1-1-0 2-0-0 0-0-0 2-0-0 3-1-0 2W
Bengals 2 2 0 0.500 61 119 -58 1-0-0 1-2-0 1-0-0 2-1-0 2-2-0 2L
Ravens 1 3 0 0.250 131 133 -2 1-1-0 0-2-0 1-0-0 1-2-0 1-3-0 2L
Browns 1 3 0 0.250 56 102 -46 1-1-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 1-3-0 1L
AFC South W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Colts 3 1 0 0.750 123 83 40 2-0-0 1-1-0 1-0-0 3-0-0 3-1-0 1L
Jaguars 3 1 0 0.750 96 72 24 2-0-0 1-1-0 1-0-0 1-1-0 3-1-0 2W
Texans 1 3 0 0.250 64 51 13 1-1-0 0-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 1-3-0 1W
Titans 0 4 0 0.000 51 120 -69 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-3-0 0-4-0 4L
AFC West W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Chargers 3 1 0 0.750 88 71 17 2-0-0 1-1-0 3-0-0 3-0-0 3-1-0 1L
Chiefs 2 2 0 0.500 97 76 21 1-1-0 1-1-0 0-1-0 1-1-0 2-2-0 2W
Broncos 2 2 0 0.500 96 67 29 2-0-0 0-2-0 0-1-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 1W
Raiders 1 3 0 0.250 77 99 -22 0-2-0 1-1-0 0-1-0 1-1-0 1-3-0 3L
NFC East W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Eagles 4 0 0 1.000 108 88 20 2-0-0 2-0-0 1-0-0 3-0-0 4-0-0 4W
Commanders 2 2 0 0.500 107 91 16 2-0-0 0-2-0 1-0-0 1-2-0 2-2-0 1L
Cowboys 1 2 1 0.250 114 132 -18 1-0-1 0-2-0 1-1-0 1-2-1 1-2-1 1D
Giants 1 3 0 0.250 73 101 -28 1-1-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 1-3-0 1W
NFC North W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Lions 3 1 0 0.750 137 88 49 2-0-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 3-1-0 3W
Packers 2 1 1 0.500 104 84 20 2-0-0 0-1-1 1-0-0 2-0-1 2-1-1 1D
Vikings 2 2 0 0.500 102 80 22 1-1-0 1-1-0 1-0-0 1-1-0 2-2-0 1L
Bears 2 2 0 0.500 101 117 -16 1-1-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 1-2-0 2-2-0 2W
NFC South W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Buccaneers 3 1 0 0.750 97 97 0 1-1-0 2-0-0 1-0-0 1-1-0 3-1-0 1L
Falcons 2 2 0 0.500 76 86 -10 1-1-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 1W
Panthers 1 3 0 0.250 75 95 -20 1-0-0 0-3-0 1-0-0 1-1-0 1-3-0 1L
Saints 0 4 0 0.000 66 121 -55 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-0-0 0-3-0 0-4-0 4L
NFC West W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
49ers 4 1 0 0.800 106 98 8 1-1-0 3-0-0 3-0-0 4-0-0 4-1-0 1W
Seahawks 3 1 0 0.750 111 67 44 1-1-0 2-0-0 1-1-0 2-1-0 3-1-0 3W
Rams 3 2 0 0.600 123 107 16 2-1-0 1-1-0 0-1-0 0-2-0 3-2-0 1L
Cardinals 2 2 0 0.500 82 74 8 1-1-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 2L
AFC Conference W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Bills 4 0 0 1.000 133 90 43 3-0-0 1-0-0 2-0-0 3-0-0 4-0-0 4W
Chargers 3 1 0 0.750 88 71 17 2-0-0 1-1-0 3-0-0 3-0-0 3-1-0 1L
Steelers 3 1 0 0.750 96 98 -2 1-1-0 2-0-0 0-0-0 2-0-0 3-1-0 2W
Colts 3 1 0 0.750 123 83 40 2-0-0 1-1-0 1-0-0 3-0-0 3-1-0 1L
Jaguars 3 1 0 0.750 96 72 24 2-0-0 1-1-0 1-0-0 1-1-0 3-1-0 2W
Bengals 2 2 0 0.500 61 119 -58 1-0-0 1-2-0 1-0-0 2-1-0 2-2-0 2L
Chiefs 2 2 0 0.500 97 76 21 1-1-0 1-1-0 0-1-0 1-1-0 2-2-0 2W
Broncos 2 2 0 0.500 96 67 29 2-0-0 0-2-0 0-1-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 1W
Patriots 2 2 0 0.500 102 81 21 1-2-0 1-0-0 1-0-0 1-2-0 2-2-0 1W
Raiders 1 3 0 0.250 77 99 -22 0-2-0 1-1-0 0-1-0 1-1-0 1-3-0 3L
Texans 1 3 0 0.250 64 51 13 1-1-0 0-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 1-3-0 1W
Ravens 1 3 0 0.250 131 133 -2 1-1-0 0-2-0 1-0-0 1-2-0 1-3-0 2L
Dolphins 1 3 0 0.250 83 118 -35 1-1-0 0-2-0 1-2-0 1-3-0 1-3-0 1W
Browns 1 3 0 0.250 56 102 -46 1-1-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 1-3-0 1L
Jets 0 4 0 0.000 90 120 -30 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-3-0 0-4-0 4L
Titans 0 4 0 0.000 51 120 -69 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-3-0 0-4-0 4L
NFC Conference W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Eagles 4 0 0 1.000 108 88 20 2-0-0 2-0-0 1-0-0 3-0-0 4-0-0 4W
49ers 4 1 0 0.800 106 98 8 1-1-0 3-0-0 3-0-0 4-0-0 4-1-0 1W
Lions 3 1 0 0.750 137 88 49 2-0-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 3-1-0 3W
Buccaneers 3 1 0 0.750 97 97 0 1-1-0 2-0-0 1-0-0 1-1-0 3-1-0 1L
Seahawks 3 1 0 0.750 111 67 44 1-1-0 2-0-0 1-1-0 2-1-0 3-1-0 3W
Rams 3 2 0 0.600 123 107 16 2-1-0 1-1-0 0-1-0 0-2-0 3-2-0 1L
Packers 2 1 1 0.500 104 84 20 2-0-0 0-1-1 1-0-0 2-0-1 2-1-1 1D
Falcons 2 2 0 0.500 76 86 -10 1-1-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 1W
Vikings 2 2 0 0.500 102 80 22 1-1-0 1-1-0 1-0-0 1-1-0 2-2-0 1L
Cardinals 2 2 0 0.500 82 74 8 1-1-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 2L
Bears 2 2 0 0.500 101 117 -16 1-1-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 1-2-0 2-2-0 2W
Commanders 2 2 0 0.500 107 91 16 2-0-0 0-2-0 1-0-0 1-2-0 2-2-0 1L
Cowboys 1 2 1 0.250 114 132 -18 1-0-1 0-2-0 1-1-0 1-2-1 1-2-1 1D
Panthers 1 3 0 0.250 75 95 -20 1-0-0 0-3-0 1-0-0 1-1-0 1-3-0 1L
Giants 1 3 0 0.250 73 101 -28 1-1-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 1-3-0 1W
Saints 0 4 0 0.000 66 121 -55 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-0-0 0-3-0 0-4-0 4L
NFL Team W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Bills 4 0 0 1.000 133 90 43 3-0-0 1-0-0 2-0-0 3-0-0 4-0-0 4W
Eagles 4 0 0 1.000 108 88 20 2-0-0 2-0-0 1-0-0 3-0-0 4-0-0 4W
49ers 4 1 0 0.800 106 98 8 1-1-0 3-0-0 3-0-0 4-0-0 4-1-0 1W
Lions 3 1 0 0.750 137 88 49 2-0-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 3-1-0 3W
Colts 3 1 0 0.750 123 83 40 2-0-0 1-1-0 1-0-0 3-0-0 3-1-0 1L
Jaguars 3 1 0 0.750 96 72 24 2-0-0 1-1-0 1-0-0 1-1-0 3-1-0 2W
Chargers 3 1 0 0.750 88 71 17 2-0-0 1-1-0 3-0-0 3-0-0 3-1-0 1L
Steelers 3 1 0 0.750 96 98 -2 1-1-0 2-0-0 0-0-0 2-0-0 3-1-0 2W
Seahawks 3 1 0 0.750 111 67 44 1-1-0 2-0-0 1-1-0 2-1-0 3-1-0 3W
Buccaneers 3 1 0 0.750 97 97 0 1-1-0 2-0-0 1-0-0 1-1-0 3-1-0 1L
Packers 2 1 1 0.500 104 84 20 2-0-0 0-1-1 1-0-0 2-0-1 2-1-1 1D
Rams 3 2 0 0.600 123 107 16 2-1-0 1-1-0 0-1-0 0-2-0 3-2-0 1L
Cardinals 2 2 0 0.500 82 74 8 1-1-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 2L
Falcons 2 2 0 0.500 76 86 -10 1-1-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 1W
Bears 2 2 0 0.500 101 117 -16 1-1-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 1-2-0 2-2-0 2W
Bengals 2 2 0 0.500 61 119 -58 1-0-0 1-2-0 1-0-0 2-1-0 2-2-0 2L
Broncos 2 2 0 0.500 96 67 29 2-0-0 0-2-0 0-1-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 1W
Chiefs 2 2 0 0.500 97 76 21 1-1-0 1-1-0 0-1-0 1-1-0 2-2-0 2W
Vikings 2 2 0 0.500 102 80 22 1-1-0 1-1-0 1-0-0 1-1-0 2-2-0 1L
Patriots 2 2 0 0.500 102 81 21 1-2-0 1-0-0 1-0-0 1-2-0 2-2-0 1W
Commanders 2 2 0 0.500 107 91 16 2-0-0 0-2-0 1-0-0 1-2-0 2-2-0 1L
Cowboys 1 2 1 0.250 114 132 -18 1-0-1 0-2-0 1-1-0 1-2-1 1-2-1 1D
Ravens 1 3 0 0.250 131 133 -2 1-1-0 0-2-0 1-0-0 1-2-0 1-3-0 2L
Panthers 1 3 0 0.250 75 95 -20 1-0-0 0-3-0 1-0-0 1-1-0 1-3-0 1L
Browns 1 3 0 0.250 56 102 -46 1-1-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 1-3-0 1L
Texans 1 3 0 0.250 64 51 13 1-1-0 0-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 1-3-0 1W
Raiders 1 3 0 0.250 77 99 -22 0-2-0 1-1-0 0-1-0 1-1-0 1-3-0 3L
Dolphins 1 3 0 0.250 83 118 -35 1-1-0 0-2-0 1-2-0 1-3-0 1-3-0 1W
Giants 1 3 0 0.250 73 101 -28 1-1-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 1-3-0 1W
Saints 0 4 0 0.000 66 121 -55 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-0-0 0-3-0 0-4-0 4L
Jets 0 4 0 0.000 90 120 -30 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-3-0 0-4-0 4L
Titans 0 4 0 0.000 51 120 -69 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-3-0 0-4-0 4L