Patriots vs Bills Prediction, Picks & Odds | 05 Oct 2025

NFL Betting Preview: Patriots vs Bills

The New England Patriots clash with the Buffalo Bills in this NFL Week 5 matchup at Highmark Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 20:20 on Sunday, October 5. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, updated betting odds, head-to-head stats and the latest team news, including injuries.

We’re backing the Bills against the spread when they face the Patriots. It could be shrewd to bet on them to cover the appealing -8.5 line, with odds of -108 on offer.

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New England Patriots claimed a victory in their previous game. A 42-13 home win occurred against Carolina Panthers at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots put up 307 yards, split between 203 passing and 104 rushing yards. The offense managed 16 first downs and reached the end zone 6 times, 2 via the pass and 3 on the ground.

Buffalo Bills won their last game 31-19, making it four victories on the bounce. This was a home win at Highmark Stadium against New Orleans Saints. The Bills generated 356 total yards, made up of 191 passing and 165 rushing yards. They converted for 20 first downs and produced 4 touchdowns, with 2 through the air and 2 on the ground.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Patriots won the most recent matchup between these teams. A 23-16 victory was registered against the Bills at Gillette Stadium. The Bills have won seven of the past 10 games that these teams have played.

Quarterbacks

Drake Maye

226.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Josh Allen

226.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Patriots vs Bills Prediction & Picks

Get the full betting picture for Patriots vs Bills, including a key match prediction, our best correct score selection, top player prop picks and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

We are confident that the Bills will cover the spread in this NFL matchup. -8.5 seems a generous line and you can get -108 that the favorites will win by a bigger margin.

Sportsgambler.com brings strong NFL expertise, built on knowing the team news as soon as it’s confirmed. Recent form plays a big part in our predictions and we always back it up with the most relevant stats.

Key Patriots vs Bills stats:

• The -8.5 line has been covered by Bills in 3 consecutive games.
• The -8.5 line has been covered by Bills in 6 of their last 10 games at home.
• The -8.5 line has been covered by Bills in 11 of their last 20 games at home.

Bills -8.5 Probability

If you go by the top betting sites, there’s a 51.8% likelihood of our pick landing a return. However, our in-depth research has found that the actual probability is between 55-60%. This is why we can recommend this bet.

If you’re in pursuit of bigger odds, then a Bet Builder could be a way forward. Take the Bills to cover the line with additional selections until you’re satisfied with the price.

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Our Game Prediction

Bills -8.5 @ -108 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Josh Allen Over 225.5 Passing Yards -114

Josh Allen (Bills) is available at -114 to record more than 225.5 passing yards. We believe it makes sense to stick with him on the Over and bettors can be confident in this QB Passing Yards pick.

Latest Josh Allen Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

-100

First

+650

Passing Yards

Over 226.5

-112

Under 226.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 30.5

-112

Under 30.5

-112

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Keon Coleman Anytime TD +170

Keon Coleman (Bills) is priced at +170 to hit the end zone. We’re happy to take the odds that he’ll score at least one touchdown in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.

Latest Keon Coleman Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+185

First

+1100

Receiving Yards

Over 39.5

-112

Under 39.5

-112

Correct Score Prediction

Patriots 17 - 35 Bills

There are stacks of correct score lines on offer and we’re looking at the Bills to achieve a winning scoreline of 35-17 where a huge potential return is on the cards.

Patriots vs Bills Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

According to the Moneyline betting odds, Buffalo Bills are red-hot -400 favorites with the sportsbooks and that means a 80% chance of winning this game. New England Patriots are the underdogs at +310 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

The current spread is 8.5 and the total points line is 46.5. There are many ways to bet on the NFL including the Totals. If you fancy Under 46.5, then the odds are -110.

You’ll find a huge variety of game lines and team props for every matchup. The top NFL sportsbooks provide an impressive mix of pre-game and in-game options to suit your betting style.

Moneyline

Patriots

+310

Bills

-400

Point Spread

Patriots +8.5

-110

Bills -8.5

-110

Total Points

Under 46.5

-110

Over 46.5

-110

The First TD Scorer favorite is James Cook at +370. Similar odds can be found if you’re interested in this player to register the last touchdown.

Touchdown

James Cook (Bills)

First TD

+370

Anytime TD

-189

Josh Allen (Bills)

First TD

+650

Anytime TD

-100

Keon Coleman (Bills)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+185

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+200

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+240

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+220

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+220

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+240

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+250

Drake Maye (Patriots)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+330

Antonio Gibson (Patriots)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+450

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+490

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+390

Dawson Knox (Bills)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+650

Curtis Samuel (Bills)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+650

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+700

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+750

Ty Johnson (Bills)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+750

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+900

Jackson Hawes (Bills)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+1100

Ray Davis (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+700

Tyrell Shavers (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1100

Elijah Moore (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1100

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1800

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1800

Jack Westover (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Reggie Gilliam (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+4500

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

Over 48.5

-112

Under 48.5

-112

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

Over 44.5

-112

Under 44.5

-112

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 40.5

-112

Under 40.5

-112

Keon Coleman (Bills)

Over 39.5

-112

Under 39.5

-112

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

Over 31.5

-112

Under 31.5

-112

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

Over 26.5

-112

Under 26.5

-112

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

Over 17.5

-112

Under 17.5

-112

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 16.5

-112

Under 16.5

-112

James Cook (Bills)

Over 15.5

-112

Under 15.5

-112

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

Over 14.5

-112

Under 14.5

-112

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 12.5

-112

Under 12.5

-112

Dawson Knox (Bills)

Over 10.5

-112

Under 10.5

-112

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

Over 8.5

-112

Under 8.5

-112

Rushing Yards

James Cook (Bills)

Over 72.5

-112

Under 72.5

-112

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 32.5

-112

Under 32.5

-112

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 30.5

-112

Under 30.5

-112

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 30.5

-112

Under 30.5

-112

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 24.5

-112

Under 24.5

-112

Passing Yards

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 226.5

-112

Under 226.5

-112

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 226.5

-112

Under 226.5

-112

Micro betting provides a rollercoaster ride for NFL bettors. It can be great to enjoy the live lines, with the opportunity to wager on the Next Scoring Play. Watch the live action before deciding which way to go.

Bills Keep Cashing In at Home

The Bills have ten wins and zero loss in the last 10 home games, posting 32.00 points per contest while yielding 20.50.

The Patriots have gone 3-7 across their last 10 road games, posting 17.00 points per contest while yielding 23.40.

When the teams last met at Highmark Stadium, the Bills beat the Patriots 24-21. Over the last 7 head-to-head meetings at Highmark Stadium, the Bills have claimed five wins compared to the Patriots who have two.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O49.5	U49.5
Bills Home Stats		10-0	52.50	32.00	20.50	7	3
Patriots Away Stats		3-7	40.40	17.00	23.40	1	9

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O49.5 = Games Over 49.5 Points
• U49.5 = Games Under 49.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

New England Patriots Stats

Buffalo Bills Stats

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 10 wins and 0 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +8.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +8.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -8.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -8.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 45.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 40.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 49.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 on the Road: Covered in 1 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 20.90 pts and allowed 25.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 17.00 pts and allowed 23.40 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 51.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 52.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 49.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 30.00 pts and allowed 21.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 32.00 pts and allowed 20.50 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 321.60 Yds. Allowed 330.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 110.60 Yds. Allowed 113.10 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 211.00 Yds. Allowed 217.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.50 TD. Allowed 2.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.00. Allowed 20.30
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.50. Committed by opponents 0.70
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.50. Committed by opponents 6.60
• Penalty Yards: Lost 61.40 Yds. Gained 46.80 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 366.50 Yds. Allowed 313.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 155.70 Yds. Allowed 136.20 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 210.80 Yds. Allowed 177.60 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.60 TD. Allowed 2.60 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.30. Allowed 20.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.20. Committed by opponents 1.50
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.50. Committed by opponents 6.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 47.30 Yds. Gained 48.80 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 285.50 Yds. Allowed 341.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 106.30 Yds. Allowed 122.30 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 179.20 Yds. Allowed 218.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 2.60 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.00. Allowed 19.60
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.40. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.60. Committed by opponents 6.50
• Penalty Yards: Lost 49.20 Yds. Gained 47.00 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 369.20 Yds. Allowed 317.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 147.40 Yds. Allowed 143.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 221.80 Yds. Allowed 174.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.90 TD. Allowed 2.60 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.80. Allowed 20.40
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.40. Committed by opponents 1.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.90. Committed by opponents 6.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 42.00 Yds. Gained 49.70 Yds

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