Patriots vs Broncos Prediction, Picks & Odds | 25 Jan 2026

NFL Playoff Betting Preview: Patriots vs Broncos

No. 2 New England Patriots square off against No. 1 Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship game at Empower Field at Mile High, with kickoff scheduled for 15:00 on Sunday, January 25.

The Broncos and the Patriots are certainly capable of exceeding the set points total line which leads us to predict Over 42.5 as a value bet at -115.

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The New England Patriots (14-3, 1st in AFC East) come into this matchup having won eight straight road games, and they are fresh off a 28–16 home victory over the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium in the Divisional Round.

New England racked up 248 total yards against Houston, with 143 through the air and 105 on the ground. They also recorded 13 first downs and found the end zone four times.

The Denver Broncos (14-3, 1st in AFC West) advanced to the Conference Finals after a 33–30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills at Empower Field at Mile High, making it three straight victories.

Denver recorded 349 yards, with 279 through the air and 70 on the ground. The offense converted 22 first downs and produced three touchdowns, all of them passing scores.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Pats triumphed 26–23 the last time they faced the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High, a regular-season matchup on December 24, 2023.

Quarterbacks

Drake Maye

223.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Jarrett Stidham

200.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Patriots vs Broncos Prediction & Picks

Our expert Patriots vs Broncos tips include betting advice on all fronts — from a main match prediction and player prop guidance to a correct score selection and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

The total line looks to be on the low side at 42.5. There’s a strong chance that the NFL rivals will conspire to go above the line and we’re backing Over at -115.

Incoming team news often impacts the betting lines and odds in significant ways. Our NFL handicappers factor this in alongside recent form, while key stats are also carefully weighed to strengthen each pick.

Key Patriots vs Broncos stats:

• The 42.5 line has been covered in the last 11 Patriots games on the road.
• The 42.5 line has been covered in 15 of the last 19 Patriots games this season.
• The 42.5 line has been covered in 15 of the last 20 Patriots games.
• The 42.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Broncos games.

Over 42.5 Probability

The top NFL sportsbooks make it a 53.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, we have this figure at close to 60% based on our in-depth research. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.

Want more juice from your Over bet on the Totals? Bigger odds can be found if you move the line and go for a riskier wager. You can choose from a wide range of options.

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Our Game Prediction

Over 42.5 Points @ -115 Watch Live Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: RJ Harvey Anytime TD +120

RJ Harvey (Broncos) is available at +120 to score a TD. The Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds look attractive based on the evidence, and we’ll back him to take it to the house.

Latest RJ Harvey Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+115

First

+650

Receiving Yards

Over 20.5

-114

Under 20.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 40.5

-114

Under 40.5

-114

---

Drake Maye Over 223.5 Passing Yards -114

Drake Maye (Pats) is available at -114 to go beyond over 223.5 passing yards. He looks capable of covering the line and that leads us to taking this QB Passing Yards bet.

Latest Drake Maye Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+290

First

+1500

Passing Yards

Over 223.5

-114

Under 223.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 29.5

-114

Under 29.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

Patriots 28 - 21 Broncos

If you want to achieve a big return from your stake, then it’s worth checking out the correct score lines. The Pats to claim a 28-21 victory is available at huge odds.

Patriots vs Broncos Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

New England Patriots have the shortest price to win this game, with the sportsbooks giving them a 69% probability due to their -227 Moneyline betting odds. Denver Broncos are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +188.

The current spread is 4.5 and total points is 42.5. There is no denying the popularity of betting on the Totals. If you're keen on Over 42.5, this selection is available at -118.

If you’re betting on the National Football League, we recommend visiting the top betting apps and scanning through the many team props and game lines. There’s the opportunity to wager pre-game and in-game.

Moneyline

Patriots

-227

Broncos

+188

Point Spread

Patriots -4.5

-102

Broncos +4.5

-120

Total Points

Under 42.5

-104

Over 42.5

-118

The First TD Scorer favorite is Rhamondre Stevenson at +600. Similar odds can be found if you’re interested in this player to register the last touchdown.

Touchdown

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

First TD

+600

Anytime TD

+120

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

First TD

+650

Anytime TD

+115

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

First TD

+850

Anytime TD

+175

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

First TD

+900

Anytime TD

+200

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+250

Jaleel McLaughlin (Broncos)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+250

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+230

Courtland Sutton (Broncos)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+280

Drake Maye (Patriots)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+290

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+420

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+420

Jarrett Stidham (Broncos)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+400

Evan Engram (Broncos)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+500

Pat Bryant (Broncos)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+460

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+500

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+700

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+850

Adam Trautman (Broncos)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+1000

Lil'Jordan Humphrey (Broncos)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+1100

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1500

Lucas Krull (Broncos)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1600

Tyler Badie (Broncos)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1600

D'Ernest Johnson (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

Nate Adkins (Broncos)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

Jack Westover (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Adam Prentice (Broncos)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Elijah Moore (Broncos)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

Receiving Yards

Courtland Sutton (Broncos)

Over 46.5

-114

Under 46.5

-114

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

Over 44.5

-114

Under 44.5

-114

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 41.5

-114

Under 41.5

-114

Pat Bryant (Broncos)

Over 34.5

-114

Under 34.5

-114

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

Over 29.5

-114

Under 29.5

-114

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

Over 27.5

-114

Under 27.5

-114

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

Over 20.5

-114

Under 20.5

-114

Evan Engram (Broncos)

Over 20.5

-114

Under 20.5

-114

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 17.5

-114

Under 17.5

-114

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 5.5

-114

Under 5.5

-114

Adam Trautman (Broncos)

Over 5.5

-114

Under 5.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 50.5

-114

Under 50.5

-114

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

Over 40.5

-114

Under 40.5

-114

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 35.5

-114

Under 35.5

-114

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 29.5

-114

Under 29.5

-114

Jaleel McLaughlin (Broncos)

Over 24.5

-114

Under 24.5

-114

Jarrett Stidham (Broncos)

Over 14.5

-114

Under 14.5

-114

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

Over 2.5

+106

Under 2.5

-141

Passing Yards

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 223.5

-114

Under 223.5

-114

Jarrett Stidham (Broncos)

Over 200.5

-114

Under 200.5

-114

Broncos Have Picked Up Nine Wins in Past Ten at Home

The Broncos have a 9-1 record in their last 10 home games, scoring 26.30 points per contest and conceding 19.00.

The Patriots have rattled off eight road wins in a row. They have eight wins and two losses in the last 10 games on the road, posting 27.40 points per contest while yielding 21.00.

In their most recent matchup at Empower Field at Mile High, the Pats got the better of the Broncos 26-23.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O42.5	U42.5
Broncos Home Stats		9-1	45.30	26.30	19.00	5	5
Patriots Away Stats		8-2	48.40	27.40	21.00	10	0

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O42.5 = Games Over 42.5 Points
• U42.5 = Games Under 42.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

New England Patriots Stats

Denver Broncos Stats

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• -4.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games
• +4.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 46.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 48.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 42.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 42.5 on the Road: Covered in the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 29.70 pts and allowed 17.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 27.40 pts and allowed 21.00 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 41.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 45.30 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 42.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 42.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 22.70 pts and allowed 19.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 26.30 pts and allowed 19.00 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 392.20 Yds. Allowed 277.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 143.10 Yds. Allowed 118.50 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 249.10 Yds. Allowed 159.10 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.50 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.60. Allowed 17.30
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 3.70. Committed by opponents 5.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 42.10 Yds. Gained 39.70 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 331.90 Yds. Allowed 292.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 98.60 Yds. Allowed 97.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 233.30 Yds. Allowed 195.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.30 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.00. Allowed 18.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.90. Committed by opponents 5.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 48.00 Yds. Gained 43.60 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 380.10 Yds. Allowed 330.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 119.00 Yds. Allowed 119.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 261.10 Yds. Allowed 211.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.30 TD. Allowed 2.20 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 1.00 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.40. Allowed 19.00
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.90. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.10. Committed by opponents 7.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 51.90 Yds. Gained 53.60 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 364.90 Yds. Allowed 289.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 117.70 Yds. Allowed 97.90 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 247.20 Yds. Allowed 191.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.90 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.20. Allowed 17.70
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.20. Committed by opponents 1.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.90. Committed by opponents 8.40
• Penalty Yards: Lost 58.50 Yds. Gained 64.90 Yds

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