Patriots vs Broncos Prediction, Picks & Odds | 25 Jan 2026

NFL Playoff Betting Preview: Patriots vs Broncos

No. 2 New England Patriots square off against No. 1 Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship game at Empower Field at Mile High, with kickoff scheduled for 16:00 on Sunday, January 25.

Based on our totals projection model and key indicators like offensive efficiency, pace and recent scoring trends, the Broncos and Patriots look capable of pushing this game past the number. That’s why we like Over 42.5 as a value bet at -115. The main concern is the weather, but if the wind stays manageable, the Over looks like the best angle.

The New England Patriots (14-3, 1st in AFC East) come into this matchup having won eight straight road games, and they are fresh off a 28–16 home victory over the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium in the Divisional Round.

New England racked up 248 total yards against Houston, with 143 through the air and 105 on the ground. They also recorded 13 first downs and found the end zone four times.

The Denver Broncos (14-3, 1st in AFC West) advanced to the Conference Finals after a 33–30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills at Empower Field at Mile High, making it three straight victories.

Denver recorded 349 yards, with 279 through the air and 70 on the ground. The offense converted 22 first downs and produced three touchdowns, all of them passing scores.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Pats triumphed 26–23 the last time they faced the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High, a regular-season matchup on December 24, 2023.

Quarterbacks

Drake Maye

223.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Jarrett Stidham

208.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Patriots vs Broncos Prediction & Picks

Our expert Patriots vs Broncos tips include betting advice on all fronts — from a main match prediction and player prop guidance to a correct score selection and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

The total line looks a little low at 42.5. There’s a strong chance these AFC rivals do enough to push it past the number, so we like the Over at -115.

Incoming team news often impacts the betting lines and odds in significant ways. Our NFL handicappers factor this in alongside recent form, while key stats are also carefully weighed to strengthen each pick.

Key Patriots vs Broncos stats:

• The 42.5 line has been covered in the last 11 Patriots games on the road.
• The 42.5 line has been covered in 15 of the 19 Patriots games this season.
• The 42.5 line has been covered in 15 of the last 20 Patriots games.
• The 42.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Broncos games.

Over 42.5 Probability

The top NFL sportsbooks make it a 53.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, we have this figure at close to 60% based on our in-depth research. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.

Want more juice from your Over bet on the Totals? Bigger odds can be found if you move the line and go for a riskier wager. You can choose from a wide range of options.

Check out our latest betting offers guide — packed with top free bet deals and exclusive welcome bonuses.

Our Game Prediction

Over 42.5 Points @ -115 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jan 23, 22:25). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: RJ Harvey Anytime TD +120

RJ Harvey (Broncos) is available at +120 to score a TD. The Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds look attractive based on the evidence, and we’ll back him to take it to the house.

Latest RJ Harvey Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+140

First

+700

Receiving Yards

Over 21.5

-112

Under 21.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 37.5

-112

Under 37.5

-112

---

Drake Maye Over 223.5 Passing Yards -114

Drake Maye (Pats) is available at -114 to go beyond over 223.5 passing yards. He looks capable of covering the line and that leads us to taking this QB Passing Yards bet.

Latest Drake Maye Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+310

First

+1500

Passing Yards

Over 223.5

-112

Under 223.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 28.5

-112

Under 28.5

-112

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Patriots 28 - 21 Broncos

If you want to achieve a big return from your stake, then it’s worth checking out the correct score lines. The Pats to claim a 28-21 victory is available at huge odds.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Patriots vs Broncos Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

New England have the shortest price to win this game, with the sportsbooks giving them a 67% probability due to their -200 Moneyline betting odds. Denver are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back the Broncos at +168.

The current spread is 3.5 and total points is 43.5. There is no denying the popularity of betting on the Totals. If you're keen on Over 43.5, this selection is available at -104.

If you’re betting on the National Football League, we recommend visiting the top betting apps and scanning through the many team props and game lines. There’s the opportunity to wager pre-game and in-game.

Moneyline

Patriots

-200

Broncos

+168

Point Spread

Patriots -3.5

-110

Broncos +3.5

-110

Total Points

Under 43.5

-118

Over 43.5

-104

The First TD Scorer favorite is Rhamondre Stevenson at +650. Similar odds can be found if you’re interested in this player to register the last touchdown.

Touchdown

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

First TD

+650

Anytime TD

+135

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

First TD

+700

Anytime TD

+140

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

First TD

+950

Anytime TD

+200

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+220

Courtland Sutton (Broncos)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+240

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+280

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+320

Jaleel McLaughlin (Broncos)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+300

Drake Maye (Patriots)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+310

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+330

Pat Bryant (Broncos)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+370

Jarrett Stidham (Broncos)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+460

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+500

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+500

Evan Engram (Broncos)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+550

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+800

Adam Trautman (Broncos)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+1000

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+800

Lil'Jordan Humphrey (Broncos)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+1100

Nate Adkins (Broncos)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1500

Lucas Krull (Broncos)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1600

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

Tyler Badie (Broncos)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1700

D'Ernest Johnson (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+4000

Jack Westover (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+4000

Adam Prentice (Broncos)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Elijah Moore (Broncos)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Michael Bandy (Broncos)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Receiving Yards

Courtland Sutton (Broncos)

Over 48.5

-112

Under 48.5

-112

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

Over 44.5

-112

Under 44.5

-112

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 40.5

-112

Under 40.5

-112

Pat Bryant (Broncos)

Over 34.5

-112

Under 34.5

-112

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

Over 31.5

-112

Under 31.5

-112

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

Over 27.5

-112

Under 27.5

-112

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

Over 23.5

-112

Under 23.5

-112

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

Over 21.5

-112

Under 21.5

-112

Evan Engram (Broncos)

Over 20.5

-112

Under 20.5

-112

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 17.5

-112

Under 17.5

-112

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

Over 12.5

-112

Under 12.5

-112

Lil'Jordan Humphrey (Broncos)

Over 10.5

-112

Under 10.5

-112

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

Over 9.5

-102

Under 9.5

-123

Adam Trautman (Broncos)

Over 5.5

-112

Under 5.5

-112

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 4.5

-102

Under 4.5

-123

Rushing Yards

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 49.5

-112

Under 49.5

-112

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

Over 37.5

-112

Under 37.5

-112

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 33.5

-112

Under 33.5

-112

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 28.5

-112

Under 28.5

-112

Jaleel McLaughlin (Broncos)

Over 23.5

-112

Under 23.5

-112

Jarrett Stidham (Broncos)

Over 14.5

-112

Under 14.5

-112

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

Over 2.5

-112

Under 2.5

-112

Passing Yards

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 223.5

-112

Under 223.5

-112

Jarrett Stidham (Broncos)

Over 208.5

-112

Under 208.5

-112

Micro betting provides a rollercoaster ride for NFL bettors. It can be great to enjoy the live lines, with the opportunity to wager on the Next Scoring Play. Watch the live action before deciding which way to go.

Broncos Have Picked Up Nine Wins in Past Ten at Home

The Broncos have a 9-1 record in their last 10 home games, scoring 26.30 points per contest and conceding 19.00.

The Patriots have rattled off eight road wins in a row. They have eight wins and two losses in the last 10 games on the road, posting 27.40 points per contest while yielding 21.00.

In their most recent matchup at Empower Field at Mile High, the Pats got the better of the Broncos 26-23.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O42.5	U42.5
Broncos Home Stats		9-1	45.30	26.30	19.00	5	5
Patriots Away Stats		8-2	48.40	27.40	21.00	10	0

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O42.5 = Games Over 42.5 Points
• U42.5 = Games Under 42.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

New England Patriots Stats

Denver Broncos Stats

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• -4.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games
• +4.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 46.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 48.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 42.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 42.5 on the Road: Covered in the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 29.70 pts and allowed 17.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 27.40 pts and allowed 21.00 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 41.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 45.30 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 42.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 42.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 22.70 pts and allowed 19.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 26.30 pts and allowed 19.00 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 392.20 Yds. Allowed 277.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 143.10 Yds. Allowed 118.50 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 249.10 Yds. Allowed 159.10 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.50 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.60. Allowed 17.30
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 3.70. Committed by opponents 5.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 42.10 Yds. Gained 39.70 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 331.90 Yds. Allowed 292.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 98.60 Yds. Allowed 97.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 233.30 Yds. Allowed 195.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.30 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.00. Allowed 18.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.90. Committed by opponents 5.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 48.00 Yds. Gained 43.60 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 380.10 Yds. Allowed 330.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 119.00 Yds. Allowed 119.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 261.10 Yds. Allowed 211.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.30 TD. Allowed 2.20 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 1.00 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.40. Allowed 19.00
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.90. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.10. Committed by opponents 7.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 51.90 Yds. Gained 53.60 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 364.90 Yds. Allowed 289.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 117.70 Yds. Allowed 97.90 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 247.20 Yds. Allowed 191.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.90 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.20. Allowed 17.70
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.20. Committed by opponents 1.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.90. Committed by opponents 8.40
• Penalty Yards: Lost 58.50 Yds. Gained 64.90 Yds

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