Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction, Picks & Odds | 14 Sep 2025

NFL Betting Preview: Patriots vs Dolphins

The New England Patriots face off against the Miami Dolphins in this NFL Week 2 matchup at Hard Rock Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, September 14. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, updated betting odds, head-to-head stats and the latest team news, including injuries.

We are going to bet against the Patriots with our betting prediction. The best way of doing this is by siding with their opponents and we really like the -130 about the Dolphins winning on the Moneyline.

If you're picking Dolphins, don’t place that bet just yet — grab the latest BetMGM promo code and check out our in-depth review for key insights first.

New England Patriots were beaten 20-13 at Gillette Stadium in their previous game, being turned over at home to Las Vegas Raiders. The Patriots recorded 336 yards, with 276 through the air and 60 on the ground. The offense managed 18 first downs along with one touchdown pass.

Miami Dolphins lost on the road in their last game. Indianapolis Colts won 33-8 at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Dolphins moved the ball for 211 yards, with 133 through the air and 78 on the ground. The offense converted for 12 first downs and scored one passing TD.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Dolphins had the edge in the most recent matchup between these teams. At Hard Rock Stadium, they recorded a 34-15 win over the Patriots. We’ve seen eight Dolphins wins in the past 10 meetings between the teams.

Quarterbacks

Drake Maye

221.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Tua Tagovailoa

235.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction & Picks

Approach Patriots vs Dolphins fully prepared with our expert match prediction, likely score outcome, standout player prop picks and a hand-picked bet builder.

Game Prediction

The Patriots look opposable on the Moneyline, so we’re going to make the home team our pick for this NFL matchup. You can currently get -130 for this selection which looks value.

We use the latest team news and injury updates to help shape the best possible NFL picks. You’ll also notice we take a stats-led approach by factoring in the key numbers that truly make a difference.

Key Patriots vs Dolphins stats:

• Dolphins have won 4 consecutive games at home.
• Dolphins have won 14 of their last 20 games at home.
• Dolphins have won 6 of their last 10 games.
• Patriots have lost 8 of their last 10 games.
• Patriots have lost 16 of their last 20 games.
• Patriots have lost their last 3 games on the road.
• Dolphins have won the last 4 games between these teams.

Dolphins Moneyline Probability

The best betting apps imply that our pick has a 56.5% chance of winning. After careful examination, our cappers have this probability somewhere between 60-65%. This bet can therefore be backed with confidence.

Those looking for a bigger price about a victory for the Dolphins can check out the Result & Total lines. You can combine this moneyline pick with an Over / Under prediction for more juice.

Don’t miss out on extra value. Our comprehensive guide features a wide range of free bets and sign-up bonuses for new bettors.

Our Game Prediction

Dolphins Moneyline @ -130 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (19:26, 12 September 2025). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: De'Von Achane Anytime TD -125

De'Von Achane (Dolphins) is available at -125 to score a TD. We’ll have a play on this Anytime Touchdown Scorer bet, which could hopefully result in him taking it to the house.

Latest De'Von Achane Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

-120

First

+490

Receiving Yards

Over 29.5

-112

Under 29.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 62.5

-112

Under 62.5

-112

---

Drake Maye Over 221.5 Passing Yards -114

Drake Maye (Patriots) can be backed at -114 to exceed 221.5 passing yards. The line for QB Passing Yards looks attractive and we’re confident of securing a return.

Latest Drake Maye Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+370

First

+1800

Passing Yards

Over 221.5

-112

Under 221.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 23.5

-112

Under 23.5

-112

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Patriots 20 - 30 Dolphins

There's a speculative wager that can be enjoyed on the Dolphins when it comes to the correct score lines. Taking them to triumph 30-20 should provide some entertainment.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Patriots vs Dolphins Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

You can back Miami Dolphins at -130 to win against New England Patriots, with the latter trading at +110. This means the top sportsbooks give the road team a 48% chance of winning.

The spread is 2.5 and the total points line is currently 43.5. The advantage of the Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. If you want to bet Under 43.5, there are odds of -112.

You’ll find a huge variety of game lines and team props for every matchup. The top NFL sportsbooks provide an impressive mix of pre-game and in-game options to suit your betting style.

Moneyline

Patriots

+110

Dolphins

-130

Point Spread

Patriots +2.5

-115

Dolphins -2.5

-105

Total Points

Under 43.5

-112

Over 43.5

-108

The First Touchdown Scorer favorite is De'Von Achane at +490. Similar odds can be found if you’re interested in this player to register the final TD.

Touchdown

De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

First TD

+490

Anytime TD

-120

Tyreek Hill (Dolphins)

First TD

+800

Anytime TD

+145

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

First TD

+950

Anytime TD

+185

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

First TD

+950

Anytime TD

+195

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+210

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+250

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+280

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+300

Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+330

Drake Maye (Patriots)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+370

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+400

Malik Washington (Dolphins)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+500

Tanner Conner (Dolphins)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+650

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Dolphins)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+700

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+700

Julian Hill (Dolphins)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+800

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+800

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

First TD

+6500

Anytime TD

+1700

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

First TD

+6500

Anytime TD

+1700

Jeff Wilson Jr. (Dolphins)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1700

Antonio Gibson (Patriots)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1500

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1700

Dee Eskridge (Dolphins)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1900

Alec Ingold (Dolphins)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+2000

Jack Westover (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+4500

Receiving Yards

Tyreek Hill (Dolphins)

Over 64.5

-112

Under 64.5

-112

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins)

Over 50.5

-112

Under 50.5

-112

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

Over 43.5

-112

Under 43.5

-112

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

Over 42.5

-112

Under 42.5

-112

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 36.5

-112

Under 36.5

-112

De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

Over 29.5

-112

Under 29.5

-112

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

Over 28.5

-112

Under 28.5

-112

Malik Washington (Dolphins)

Over 23.5

-112

Under 23.5

-112

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 18.5

-112

Under 18.5

-112

Tanner Conner (Dolphins)

Over 10.5

-112

Under 10.5

-112

Rushing Yards

De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

Over 62.5

-112

Under 62.5

-112

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 37.5

-112

Under 37.5

-112

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 36.5

-112

Under 36.5

-112

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 23.5

-112

Under 23.5

-112

Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins)

Over 17.5

-112

Under 17.5

-112

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)

Over 2.5

-112

Under 2.5

-112

Passing Yards

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)

Over 235.5

-112

Under 235.5

-112

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 221.5

-112

Under 221.5

-112

Micro betting provides a rollercoaster ride for NFL bettors. It can be great to enjoy the live lines, with the opportunity to wager on the Next Scoring Play. Watch the live action before deciding which way to go.

Dolphins Have Won the Previous Five Head-to-Head Matchups at Hard Rock Stadium

The Dolphins have rattled off four consecutive victories at Hard Rock Stadium. They own a 6-4 mark in their past 10 home games, putting up 23.40 points per contest and giving up 22.50.

The Patriots have dropped three road games in a row. They own a 2-8 mark in their past 10 games on the road, putting up 15.80 points on average and giving up 23.40.

The previous meeting at Hard Rock Stadium saw the Dolphins defeat the Patriots 34-15. Looking at the last 6 head-to-heads at Hard Rock Stadium, the Dolphins have tallied five victories, with the Patriots winning once.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O43.5	U43.5
Dolphins Home Stats		6-4	45.90	23.40	22.50	5	5
Patriots Away Stats		2-8	39.20	15.80	23.40	5	5

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O43.5 = Games Over 43.5 Points
• U43.5 = Games Under 43.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

New England Patriots Stats

Miami Dolphins Stats

Moneyline

• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games
• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• +2.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -2.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 41.80 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 39.20 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 43.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 43.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 17.80 pts and allowed 24.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 15.80 pts and allowed 23.40 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 43.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 45.90 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 43.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 43.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 22.90 pts and allowed 21.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 23.40 pts and allowed 22.50 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 321.20 Yds. Allowed 336.50 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 114.00 Yds. Allowed 122.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 207.20 Yds. Allowed 214.10 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 2.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.20. Allowed 20.30
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.60. Committed by opponents 0.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.10. Committed by opponents 6.50
• Penalty Yards: Lost 57.40 Yds. Gained 47.30 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 314.50 Yds. Allowed 333.70 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 80.30 Yds. Allowed 95.90 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 234.20 Yds. Allowed 237.90 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.30 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 0.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.30. Allowed 19.70
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.50. Committed by opponents 1.00
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.80. Committed by opponents 7.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 42.90 Yds. Gained 63.90 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 281.60 Yds. Allowed 333.40 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 104.40 Yds. Allowed 128.90 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 177.20 Yds. Allowed 204.50 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 2.60 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 1.00 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.90 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 16.80. Allowed 19.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.80. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.60. Committed by opponents 5.90
• Penalty Yards: Lost 43.70 Yds. Gained 43.70 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 344.50 Yds. Allowed 333.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 103.30 Yds. Allowed 99.50 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 241.20 Yds. Allowed 233.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.30 TD. Allowed 2.40 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.90. Allowed 19.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.70. Committed by opponents 1.00
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.80. Committed by opponents 7.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 46.20 Yds. Gained 55.00 Yds

Top American Football Pages