Saints vs Falcons Prediction, Picks & Odds | 04 Jan 2026

NFL Betting Preview: Saints vs Falcons

The New Orleans Saints go up against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, January 4.

Our betting prediction is that the Saints will cover the line and prove to be competitive. It’s currently set at +3 against the Falcons and that makes lots of appeal, with odds of -100 available.

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New Orleans Saints have triumphed in their previous four games. The latest was on the road where Tennessee Titans were beaten 34-26 at Nissan Stadium. The Saints moved the ball for 423 yards, split between 320 passing and 103 rushing yards. They produced 16 first downs along with 4 touchdowns.

Atlanta Falcons were winners for the third straight time in their last game. Landing a 27-24 home victory against Los Angeles Rams at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons totaled 345 yards, with 126 through the air and 219 on the ground. They produced 15 first downs and found the end zone 3 times, 1 via the pass and 1 on the ground.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was the Falcons who came out on top when they last played the Saints. At Caesars Superdome, a 24-10 win was recorded. The Saints have won six of the past 10 games that these teams have played.

Quarterbacks

Tyler Shough

231.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Kirk Cousins

217.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Saints vs Falcons Prediction & Picks

Our Saints vs Falcons betting tips provide expert coverage of all major angles, including our main match prediction, top player prop picks, correct score recommendation and best bet builder insights.

Game Prediction

Considering the +3 that is available for the Saints, our pick is that the underdogs will cover the spread in this NFL battle. They can stay in the game and odds of -100 is available.

The NFL handicappers at Sportsgambler.com start by analyzing recent form and staying on top of injury news before making any predictions. From there, we interpret the story the stats are telling to help shape our picks.

Key Saints vs Falcons stats:

• The +3 line has been covered by Saints in 4 consecutive games.
• The -3 line hasn’t been covered by Falcons in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The -3 line hasn’t been covered by Falcons in 10 of their last 16 games this season.
• The -3 line hasn’t been covered by Falcons in 8 of their last 10 games against Saints.

Saints +3 Probability

The top NFL sportsbooks make it a 50% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. Based on our in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be closer to 60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this wager.

It’s good to explore all avenues and you might prefer bigger odds about the spread pick you want to make. Go ahead and move the line until you’re happy with the price.

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Our Game Prediction

Saints +3 @ -100 Watch Live Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Tyler Shough Over 231.5 Passing Yards -114

The odds for Tyler Shough (Saints) to exceed 231.5 passing yards stand at -114. The line for him on the Overs is highly appealing, with QB Passing Yards bettors able to get plenty of juice.

Latest Tyler Shough Player Prop Odds

Passing Yards

Over 231.5

-114

Under 231.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

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Kyle Pitts Over 46.5 Receiving Yards -114

The odds for Kyle Pitts (Falcons) to record more than 46.5 receiving yards are -114. We believe it makes sense to stick with him on the Over and bettors can be confident in this Player Receiving Yards pick.

Latest Kyle Pitts Player Prop Odds

Receiving Yards

Over 46.5

-114

Under 46.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

Saints 24 - 23 Falcons

We’ll roll the dice and go for the Saints to enjoy a 24-23 victory. We don’t think that there will be too much between the teams and we’re happy to take the massive odds.

Saints vs Falcons Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Sportsbooks’ favorites Atlanta Falcons are regarded as likeliest victors for this game and the -179 about them triumphing means a 64% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. The market suggests that New Orleans Saints are least likely to win at +150.

The current spread is 3 and total points is 44.5. The Totals offers NFL fans an alternative way of getting involved. If you want to bet Under 44.5, there are odds of -115.

If a National Football League wager is on your mind, visit the top sportsbooks and check out the huge selection of available game lines and team props. Find the betting odds and lines which are the most appealing.

Moneyline

Saints

+150

Falcons

-179

Point Spread

Saints +3

-100

Falcons -3

-122

Total Points

Under 44.5

-115

Over 44.5

-105

Receiving Yards

Chris Olave (Saints)

Over 67.5

-114

Under 67.5

-114

Drake London (Falcons)

Over 59.5

-114

Under 59.5

-114

Juwan Johnson (Saints)

Over 57.5

-114

Under 57.5

-114

Kyle Pitts (Falcons)

Over 46.5

-114

Under 46.5

-114

Kevin Austin (Saints)

Over 43.5

-114

Under 43.5

-114

Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

Over 40.5

-114

Under 40.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

Over 82.5

-114

Under 82.5

-114

Audric Estime (Saints)

Over 49.5

-114

Under 49.5

-114

Tyler Shough (Saints)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

Passing Yards

Tyler Shough (Saints)

Over 231.5

-114

Under 231.5

-114

Kirk Cousins (Falcons)

Over 217.5

-114

Under 217.5

-114

Falcons Home Results Include Six Losses From Last Ten Games

The Falcons own a 4-6 mark in their past 10 home games, putting up 23.60 points per contest and giving up 25.70.

The Saints are 3-7 in their last 10 games away from home, putting up 16.70 points per contest and giving up 27.00.

The Falcons earned a 26-24 win over the Saints the last time they played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Over the last 6 head-to-head meetings at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Saints have claimed four wins compared to the Falcons who have two.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O44.5	U44.5
Falcons Home Stats		4-6	49.30	23.60	25.70	5	5
Saints Away Stats		3-7	43.70	16.70	27.00	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O44.5 = Games Over 44.5 Points
• U44.5 = Games Under 44.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

New Orleans Saints Stats

Atlanta Falcons Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• +3 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -3 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 38.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 43.70 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 44.5: Covered in 1 of the previous 10 games
• Over 44.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 17.80 pts and allowed 20.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 16.70 pts and allowed 27.00 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 48.80 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 49.30 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 44.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 44.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 22.40 pts and allowed 26.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 23.60 pts and allowed 25.70 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 315.90 Yds. Allowed 292.40 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 83.80 Yds. Allowed 131.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 232.10 Yds. Allowed 160.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.30. Allowed 17.30
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.80. Committed by opponents 1.10
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.20. Committed by opponents 5.90
• Penalty Yards: Lost 51.80 Yds. Gained 49.20 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 326.70 Yds. Allowed 362.20 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 127.10 Yds. Allowed 129.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 199.60 Yds. Allowed 232.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.50 TD. Allowed 2.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.20. Allowed 21.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.00. Committed by opponents 5.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 54.70 Yds. Gained 40.30 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 291.20 Yds. Allowed 340.90 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 94.50 Yds. Allowed 153.60 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 196.70 Yds. Allowed 187.30 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 2.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.10. Allowed 20.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.50. Committed by opponents 0.90
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.80. Committed by opponents 6.50
• Penalty Yards: Lost 56.90 Yds. Gained 50.30 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 363.40 Yds. Allowed 324.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 138.60 Yds. Allowed 109.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 224.80 Yds. Allowed 215.30 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 2.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 0.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 2.20 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.00. Allowed 18.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.20. Committed by opponents 1.10
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.00. Committed by opponents 6.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 44.80 Yds. Gained 52.00 Yds

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