Steelers vs Patriots Prediction, Picks & Odds | 21 Sep 2025

NFL Betting Preview: Steelers vs Patriots

The Pittsburgh Steelers clash with the New England Patriots in this NFL Week 3 matchup at Gillette Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, September 21. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, updated betting odds, head-to-head stats and the latest team news, including injuries.

Our betting prediction is that there will be home-field advantage when the Patriots face the Steelers. You can currently get +102 about this happening which look like great odds.

Backing Patriots to come through? Be sure to grab the exclusive BetMGM promo code and check out our sportsbook review before placing your bet.

Pittsburgh Steelers were beaten 31-17 at Acrisure Stadium in their previous game, being turned over at home to Seattle Seahawks. The Steelers finished with 267 total yards, made up of 195 through the air and 72 on the ground. They produced 13 first downs and scored a touchdown through the air.

New England Patriots triumphed in their last game. It was on the road where Miami Dolphins were beaten 33-27 at Hard Rock Stadium. The Patriots put up 333 yards, including 211 passing and 122 rushing yards. The offense picked up 18 first downs and crossed the goal line 4 times.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Patriots had the edge in the most recent matchup between these teams. At Acrisure Stadium, they recorded a 21-18 win over the Steelers. The Patriots have a 100% win record when it comes to the previous 3 H2H meetings.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers

230.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Drake Maye

224.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Steelers vs Patriots Prediction & Picks

Discover the top Steelers vs Patriots betting angles — from our trusted match prediction and likely score to the best prop plays and a customized bet builder.

Game Prediction

We can’t resist going for the Patriots on the Moneyline, with our pick made with confidence and there is +102 available that they win this NFL matchup.

Our NFL predictions are built after tracking the latest team news and reviewing recent form. We also dive into up-to-date stats, which often serve as a solid barometer for how the action might unfold.

Key Steelers vs Patriots stats:

• Steelers have lost 4 of their last 5 games.
• Steelers have lost 7 of their last 10 games.
• Patriots have won the last 3 games between these teams.

Patriots Moneyline Probability

According to the latest betting odds, our pick has a 49.5% chance of winning. Our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. This is why we can recommend this bet.

If you’re looking for greater odds, the Patriots can be backed at a bigger price against the spread. Also consider the option of looking at the Result & Total and Double Result lines.

Before your next bet, explore our betting offers guide filled with top bonuses, the latest promotions, and free bet deals.

Our Game Prediction

Patriots Moneyline @ +102 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Drake Maye Over 221.5 Passing Yards -114

You can back Drake Maye (Patriots) at -114 to go beyond 221.5 passing yards. He looks capable of covering the line and that leads us to taking this QB Passing Yards bet.

Latest Drake Maye Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+360

First

+1700

Passing Yards

Over 224.5

-112

Under 224.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 26.5

-112

Under 26.5

-112

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Stefon Diggs Over 43.5 Receiving Yards -114

The odds for Stefon Diggs (Patriots) to go beyond 43.5 receiving yards are -114. We can place a Player Receiving Yards bet with confidence, as we expect him to cover the line.

Latest Stefon Diggs Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+220

First

+1200

Receiving Yards

Over 43.5

-112

Under 43.5

-112

Correct Score Prediction

Steelers 20 - 28 Patriots

The Patriots will be chasing down a victory and a winning scoreline of 28-20 might be along the right lines. There are enormous odds available about this bet.

Steelers vs Patriots Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

When you consider the latest Moneyline odds, you can find New England Patriots at -102 whereas Pittsburgh Steelers are -116. The leading sportsbooks give the hosts a 51% chance of success.

1.5 is the spread and 44.5 is the total points line. A bet on the Totals allows fans to use the latest NFL data to good effect. Those expecting a low total can back Under 44.5 at -114.

Every matchup offers a deep selection of team props and game lines and the top NFL betting sites deliver excellent pre-game and in-game wagering opportunities. It’s all about finding the bets that match your game plan.

Moneyline

Steelers

-116

Patriots

-102

Point Spread

Steelers -1.5

-106

Patriots +1.5

-114

Total Points

Under 44.5

-114

Over 44.5

-106

Those interested in favorite Jaylen Warren to score the first touchdown are able to get +550. If the Anytime TD angle makes appeal, then this is -105.

Touchdown

Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

First TD

+550

Anytime TD

-105

DK Metcalf (Steelers)

First TD

+850

Anytime TD

+150

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

First TD

+850

Anytime TD

+170

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+230

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+220

Kenneth Gainwell (Steelers)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+270

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+260

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+270

Calvin Austin III (Steelers)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+310

Jonnu Smith (Steelers)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+340

Drake Maye (Patriots)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+360

Pat Freiermuth (Steelers)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+420

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+550

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+500

Antonio Gibson (Patriots)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+800

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+800

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+1300

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+1300

Darnell Washington (Steelers)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+1100

Roman Wilson (Steelers)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+1300

Kaleb Johnson (Steelers)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1400

Ben Skowronek (Steelers)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1500

Trey Sermon (Steelers)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1400

Aaron Rodgers (Steelers)

First TD

+7500

Anytime TD

+1500

Scott Miller (Steelers)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+2200

Connor Heyward (Steelers)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+2200

Jack Westover (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+5500

Receiving Yards

DK Metcalf (Steelers)

Over 60.5

-112

Under 60.5

-112

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

Over 43.5

-112

Under 43.5

-112

Calvin Austin III (Steelers)

Over 37.5

-112

Under 37.5

-112

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 36.5

-112

Under 36.5

-112

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

Over 34.5

-112

Under 34.5

-112

Jonnu Smith (Steelers)

Over 29.5

-112

Under 29.5

-112

Pat Freiermuth (Steelers)

Over 24.5

-112

Under 24.5

-112

Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

Over 19.5

-112

Under 19.5

-112

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 17.5

-112

Under 17.5

-112

Kenneth Gainwell (Steelers)

Over 15.5

-112

Under 15.5

-112

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 13.5

-112

Under 13.5

-112

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

Over 10.5

-112

Under 10.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

Over 58.5

-112

Under 58.5

-112

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 40.5

-112

Under 40.5

-112

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 26.5

-112

Under 26.5

-112

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 22.5

-112

Under 22.5

-112

Kenneth Gainwell (Steelers)

Over 22.5

-112

Under 22.5

-112

Passing Yards

Aaron Rodgers (Steelers)

Over 230.5

-112

Under 230.5

-112

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 224.5

-112

Under 224.5

-112

Among the various options for wagering on the NFL, you will find that micro betting is provided. It focuses on short-term in-game outcomes such as whether a touchdown will be scored within the next 10 minutes.

Patriots Have Suffered Eight Losses in Past Ten at Home

The Patriots own a 2-8 mark in their past 10 home games, putting up 16.80 points on average and giving up 24.70.

The Steelers own a 5-5 mark in their past 10 games on the road, putting up 23.80 points on average and giving up 25.60.

The last Gillette Stadium meeting saw the Patriots beat the Steelers 33-3.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O44.5	U44.5
Patriots Home Stats		2-8	41.50	16.80	24.70	5	5
Steelers Away Stats		5-5	49.40	23.80	25.60	6	4

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O44.5 = Games Over 44.5 Points
• U44.5 = Games Under 44.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Pittsburgh Steelers Stats

New England Patriots Stats

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 48.80 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 49.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 44.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 44.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 21.20 pts and allowed 27.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 23.80 pts and allowed 25.60 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 44.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 41.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 44.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 44.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 19.40 pts and allowed 24.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 16.80 pts and allowed 24.70 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 300.80 Yds. Allowed 375.40 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 95.30 Yds. Allowed 136.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 205.50 Yds. Allowed 238.60 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.30 TD. Allowed 3.40 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.10. Allowed 22.70
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 1.70
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.10. Committed by opponents 6.40
• Penalty Yards: Lost 41.90 Yds. Gained 50.70 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 325.00 Yds. Allowed 332.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 115.20 Yds. Allowed 111.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 209.80 Yds. Allowed 220.50 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 2.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.00. Allowed 19.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 0.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.50. Committed by opponents 6.50
• Penalty Yards: Lost 59.10 Yds. Gained 47.10 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 317.70 Yds. Allowed 352.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 107.10 Yds. Allowed 132.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 210.60 Yds. Allowed 220.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.70 TD. Allowed 3.10 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.90 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.20. Allowed 21.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.90. Committed by opponents 1.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.40. Committed by opponents 6.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 52.80 Yds. Gained 54.60 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 289.60 Yds. Allowed 341.90 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 117.50 Yds. Allowed 131.20 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 172.10 Yds. Allowed 210.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 2.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 1.00 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.30. Allowed 20.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.20. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.00. Committed by opponents 5.50
• Penalty Yards: Lost 60.40 Yds. Gained 45.30 Yds

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