Commanders vs Falcons Prediction, Picks & Odds | 28 Sep 2025

NFL Betting Preview: Commanders vs Falcons

The Washington Commanders face the Atlanta Falcons in this NFL Week 4 matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, September 28. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, updated betting odds, head-to-head stats and the latest team news, including injuries.

We’re expecting Over 43.5 points to be scored by the Falcons and the Commanders combined. There’s an attractive -110 for our prediction and we’re anticipating that the scoreboard will tick over.

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Washington Commanders won their previous game which was at home. It was a 41-24 triumph at Northwest Stadium against Las Vegas Raiders. The Commanders moved the ball for 400 yards, made up of 199 through the air and 201 on the ground. The offense picked up 17 first downs and crossed the goal line 5 times.

Atlanta Falcons were beaten last game and this was on the road at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina Panthers claimed a 30-0 win. The Falcons put up 332 total yards, made up of 201 through the air and 131 on the ground. They managed 17 first downs and allowed 15.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last matchup between the Commanders and the Falcons saw the former win. It was a 30-24 (OT) scoreline at Northwest Stadium. In the past 4 H2H games, the Commanders have won every time.

Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota

201.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Michael Penix Jr.

216.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Commanders vs Falcons Prediction & Picks

Head into Commanders vs Falcons with expert betting insights, including our main match prediction, expected scoreline, key player prop picks and a thoughtfully built bet builder.

Game Prediction

Over 43.5 points seems like a realistic outcome for this NFL matchup. We’re taking odds of -110 considering that the total line looks to be too low here.

We closely track recent form and look for patterns that may impact the outcome. The same goes for injuries to key players. When combined with the most relevant stats, this gives us a strong foundation for accurate NFL predictions.

Key Commanders vs Falcons stats:

• The 43.5 line has been covered in 4 of the last 5 Commanders games.
• The 43.5 line has been covered in 15 of the last 20 Commanders games.
• The 43.5 line has been covered in the last 3 Commanders games on the road.

Over 43.5 Probability

The best betting apps imply that our pick has a 52.4% chance of winning. Our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this bet.

There are many ways to increase the odds if you’re wanting to bet on Overs and one of them is wagering on the Result & Total lines where you also predict a franchise to win.

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Our Game Prediction

Over 43.5 Points @ -110 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (19:26, 26 September 2025). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Michael Penix Jr. Over 219.5 Passing Yards -114

The odds for Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons) to rack up over 219.5 passing yards are -114. The line for him on the Overs looks attractive and bettors can get plenty of juice from this QB Passing Yards wager.

Latest Michael Penix Jr. Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+650

First

+2700

Passing Yards

Over 216.5

-112

Under 216.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 5.5

-112

Under 5.5

-112

---

Deebo Samuel Sr. Anytime TD +145

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders) can be backed at +145 to record a TD. We’re happy to take the odds that he’ll score at least one touchdown in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.

Latest Deebo Samuel Sr. Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+155

First

+950

Receiving Yards

Over 54.5

-112

Under 54.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 7.5

-127

Under 7.5

-102

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Commanders 30 - 23 Falcons

Let’s roll the dice and try the Commanders to enjoy a 30-23 winning scoreline here. There are massive odds for this potential outcome and it’s a fun type of wager to enjoy.

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Commanders vs Falcons Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

There’s the opportunity to back Atlanta Falcons at -159 on the Moneyline although Washington Commanders are priced up at betting odds of +134. If you want to know the probability of the road team winning this game, it’s 43% according to the most popular sportsbooks.

The spread is calculated to be 2.5, while total points comes in at 43.5. Having a wager on the Totals is one of the most popular NFL bets. If you're keen on Over 43.5, this selection is available at -112.

Whether you're placing bets before kickoff or during the game, the best NFL sportsbooks delivers a massive range of game lines and team props. The betting sites give you endless ways to get involved with plenty of exciting alternatives.

Moneyline

Commanders

+134

Falcons

-159

Point Spread

Commanders +2.5

-102

Falcons -2.5

-120

Total Points

Under 43.5

-108

Over 43.5

-112

There is -196 available that Bijan Robinson scores a TD at any stage. He is available at +320 to record the first touchdown which makes him favorite.

Touchdown

Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

First TD

+320

Anytime TD

-196

Drake London (Falcons)

First TD

+750

Anytime TD

+155

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders)

First TD

+950

Anytime TD

+155

Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Commanders)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+280

Zach Ertz (Commanders)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+240

Tyler Allgeier (Falcons)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+290

Darnell Mooney (Falcons)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+300

Kyle Pitts (Falcons)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+330

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+270

Marcus Mariota (Commanders)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+380

Ray-Ray McCloud III (Falcons)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+460

Jaylin Lane (Commanders)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+490

Luke McCaffrey (Commanders)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+550

Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+650

Jeremy McNichols (Commanders)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+550

Chris Moore (Commanders)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+750

Ben Sinnott (Commanders)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1000

Casey Washington (Falcons)

First TD

+6500

Anytime TD

+1400

Jamal Agnew (Falcons)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1700

Charlie Woerner (Falcons)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1700

David Sills V (Falcons)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1700

Feleipe Franks (Falcons)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1700

Colson Yankoff (Commanders)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Teagan Quitoriano (Falcons)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3300

Carlos Washington Jr. (Falcons)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

Receiving Yards

Drake London (Falcons)

Over 61.5

-112

Under 61.5

-112

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders)

Over 54.5

-112

Under 54.5

-112

Darnell Mooney (Falcons)

Over 44.5

-112

Under 44.5

-112

Zach Ertz (Commanders)

Over 41.5

-112

Under 41.5

-112

Kyle Pitts (Falcons)

Over 38.5

-112

Under 38.5

-112

Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

Over 26.5

-112

Under 26.5

-112

Chris Moore (Commanders)

Over 22.5

-112

Under 22.5

-112

Luke McCaffrey (Commanders)

Over 21.5

-112

Under 21.5

-112

Jaylin Lane (Commanders)

Over 21.5

-112

Under 21.5

-112

Ray-Ray McCloud III (Falcons)

Over 16.5

-112

Under 16.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

Over 79.5

-112

Under 79.5

-112

Marcus Mariota (Commanders)

Over 34.5

-112

Under 34.5

-112

Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Commanders)

Over 32.5

-112

Under 32.5

-112

Tyler Allgeier (Falcons)

Over 30.5

-112

Under 30.5

-112

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders)

Over 29.5

-112

Under 29.5

-112

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders)

Over 7.5

-127

Under 7.5

-102

Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons)

Over 5.5

-112

Under 5.5

-112

Passing Yards

Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons)

Over 216.5

-112

Under 216.5

-112

Marcus Mariota (Commanders)

Over 201.5

-112

Under 201.5

-112

Among the various options for wagering on the NFL, you will find that micro betting is provided. It focuses on short-term in-game outcomes such as whether a touchdown will be scored within the next 10 minutes.

Commanders Lead Recent Head-to-Head Results at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

The Falcons have a 4-6 record in their last 10 home games, putting up 23.50 points on average and giving up 24.00.

The Commanders have six wins and four losses in the last 10 games away from home, scoring 26.20 points per contest and conceding 26.30.

When the teams last met at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Commanders beat the Falcons 24-16. Over the last 3 head-to-head matchups at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Commanders have claimed victory in all of them.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O43.5	U43.5
Falcons Home Stats		4-6	47.50	23.50	24.00	5	5
Commanders Away Stats		6-4	52.50	26.20	26.30	7	3

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O43.5 = Games Over 43.5 Points
• U43.5 = Games Under 43.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Washington Commanders Stats

Atlanta Falcons Stats

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• +2.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -2.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 53.80 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 52.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 43.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 43.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 28.00 pts and allowed 25.80 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 26.20 pts and allowed 26.30 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 43.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 47.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 43.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 43.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 19.30 pts and allowed 24.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 23.50 pts and allowed 24.00 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 361.80 Yds. Allowed 355.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 141.50 Yds. Allowed 138.90 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 220.30 Yds. Allowed 216.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.60 TD. Allowed 3.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 2.10 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.10. Allowed 21.60
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.20. Committed by opponents 1.00
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.50. Committed by opponents 6.80
• Penalty Yards: Lost 62.40 Yds. Gained 51.10 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 355.40 Yds. Allowed 302.20 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 139.00 Yds. Allowed 104.60 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 216.40 Yds. Allowed 197.60 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 3.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.10. Allowed 18.00
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.60. Committed by opponents 1.30
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.60. Committed by opponents 6.80
• Penalty Yards: Lost 43.60 Yds. Gained 55.60 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 338.20 Yds. Allowed 383.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 117.40 Yds. Allowed 163.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 220.80 Yds. Allowed 219.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.10 TD. Allowed 3.30 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.30. Allowed 23.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.70. Committed by opponents 1.00
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.70. Committed by opponents 5.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 45.20 Yds. Gained 52.10 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 367.30 Yds. Allowed 313.70 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 112.60 Yds. Allowed 115.30 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 254.70 Yds. Allowed 198.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.70 TD. Allowed 2.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.50. Allowed 19.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.60. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.10. Committed by opponents 6.40
• Penalty Yards: Lost 47.60 Yds. Gained 53.30 Yds

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