NFL Betting Preview: Commanders vs Falcons

The Washington Commanders face the Atlanta Falcons in this NFL Week 4 matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday 28 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, updated betting odds, head-to-head stats and the latest team news, including injuries.

Going Over the Total Points Makes Sense

We’re expecting Over 43.5 points to be scored by the Falcons and the Commanders combined. There’s an attractive -110 for our prediction and we’re anticipating that the scoreboard will tick over.

Going with our Totals selection? Make sure you’ve locked in the latest BetMGM promo code and checked out our full review before placing your wager.

Previous H2H Was Commanders Overtime Win

Washington Commanders won their previous game which was at home. It was a 41-24 triumph at Northwest Stadium against Las Vegas Raiders. The Commanders moved the ball for 400 yards, made up of 199 through the air and 201 on the ground. The offense picked up 17 first downs and crossed the goal line 5 times.

Atlanta Falcons were beaten last game and this was on the road at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina Panthers claimed a 30-0 win. The Falcons put up 332 total yards, made up of 201 through the air and 131 on the ground. They managed 17 first downs and allowed 15.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last matchup between the Commanders and the Falcons saw the former win. It was a 30-24 (OT) scoreline at Northwest Stadium. In the past 4 H2H games, the Commanders have won every time.

Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota

Michael Penix Jr.

Commanders vs Falcons Prediction & Picks

Head into Commanders vs Falcons with expert betting insights, including our main match prediction, expected scoreline, key player prop picks and a thoughtfully built bet builder.

Game Prediction

Over 43.5 points seems like a realistic outcome for this NFL matchup. We’re taking odds of -110 considering that the total line looks to be too low here.

We closely track recent form and look for patterns that may impact the outcome. The same goes for injuries to key players. When combined with the most relevant stats, this gives us a strong foundation for accurate NFL predictions.

Key Commanders vs Falcons stats:

The 43.5 line has been covered in 4 of the last 5 Commanders games.
The 43.5 line has been covered in 15 of the last 20 Commanders games.
The 43.5 line has been covered in the last 3 Commanders games on the road.

Over 43.5 Probability

The best betting apps imply that our pick has a 52.4% chance of winning. Our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this bet.

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Best Bet

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Published 19:26, 26 September 2025

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Michael Penix Jr. Over 219.5 Passing Yards -114

The odds for Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons) to rack up over 219.5 passing yards are -114. The line for him on the Overs looks attractive and bettors can get plenty of juice from this QB Passing Yards wager.

Latest Michael Penix Jr. Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Passing Yards

Deebo Samuel Sr. Anytime TD +145

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders) can be backed at +145 to record a TD. We’re happy to take the odds that he’ll score at least one touchdown in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.

Latest Deebo Samuel Sr. Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Receiving Yards

Same Game Parlay Picks

Totals Over 43.5

Spread Commanders +2.5

Passing Yards Michael Penix Jr. Over 219.5

Our same game parlay pick is Over 43.5, Commanders +2.5 on the spread and Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons) to go Over 219.5 passing yards.

There are lots of options when you place a same game parlay. You can go through the football lines and identify your favorite picks before combining the odds on the bet slip. Personalised wagering doesn’t come any better.

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Correct Score Prediction

Commanders Commanders logo

30 - 23 Falcons logo

Falcons

Let’s roll the dice and try the Commanders to enjoy a 30-23 winning scoreline here. There are massive odds for this potential outcome and it’s a fun type of wager to enjoy.

Commanders vs Falcons Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Tight Clash on the Cards According to the Books

There’s the opportunity to back Atlanta Falcons at -123 on the Moneyline although Washington Commanders are priced up at betting odds of +106. If you want to know the probability of the road team winning this game, it’s 49% according to the most popular sportsbooks.

The spread is calculated to be 2.5, while total points comes in at 43.5. Having a wager on the Totals is one of the most popular NFL bets. If you're keen on Over 43.5, this selection is available at -110.

Whether you're placing bets before kickoff or during the game, the best NFL sportsbooks delivers a massive range of game lines and team props. The betting sites give you endless ways to get involved with plenty of exciting alternatives.

Moneyline

Point Spread

Total Points

Bijan Robinson Favorite to Score First TD

There is -179 available that Bijan Robinson scores a TD at any stage. He is available at +340 to record the first touchdown which makes him favorite.

Touchdown

Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

Drake London (Falcons)

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders)

Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Commanders)

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Receiving Yards

Drake London (Falcons)

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders)

Darnell Mooney (Falcons)

Zach Ertz (Commanders)

View More View Less

Rushing Yards

Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

Marcus Mariota (Commanders)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders)

Passing Yards

Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons)

Marcus Mariota (Commanders)

Best Betting Offers

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Commanders Lead Recent Head-to-Head Results at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

The Falcons have a 4-6 record in their last 10 home games, putting up 23.50 points on average and giving up 24.00.

The Commanders have six wins and four losses in the last 10 games away from home, scoring 26.20 points per contest and conceding 26.30.

When the teams last met at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Commanders beat the Falcons 24-16. Over the last 3 head-to-head matchups at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Commanders have claimed victory in all of them.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O43.5	U43.5
Falcons Home Stats		4-6	47.50	23.50	24.00	5	5
Commanders Away Stats		6-4	52.50	26.20	26.30	7	3

W-L = Wins-Losses
P = Avg. Points
PF = Avg. Points For
PA = Avg. Points Against
O43.5 = Games Over 43.5 Points
U43.5 = Games Under 43.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

All
Home
Away

Last 5 Games

Commanders

NFL: 21/09 Raiders24 Commanders 41
NFL: 12/09 Commanders18 Packers 27
NFL: 07/09 Giants6 Commanders 21
NFL Playoffs: 26/01 Commanders23 Eagles 55
NFL Playoffs: 19/01 Commanders45 Lions 31

Falcons

NFL: 21/09 Falcons0 Panthers 30
NFL: 15/09 Falcons22 Vikings 6
NFL: 07/09 Buccaneers23 Falcons 20
NFL: 05/01 Panthers44 Falcons 38
NFL: 30/12 Falcons24 Commanders 30

Head to Head

Commanders vs Falcons

NFL: 30/12 2024 Falcons 24 Commanders 30
NFL: 15/10 2023 Commanders 24 Falcons 16
NFL: 27/11 2022 Falcons 13 Commanders 19
NFL: 03/10 2021 Commanders 34 Falcons 30

Team Stats

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Washington Commanders Stats

Atlanta Falcons Stats

Moneyline

8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

+2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
+2.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

-2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
-2.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

Game Totals: An average of 53.80 pts in the previous 10 games
Game Totals on the Road: An average of 52.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
Over 43.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
Over 43.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 28.00 pts and allowed 25.80 pts in the last 10 games
Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 26.20 pts and allowed 26.30 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

Game Totals: An average of 43.90 pts in the previous 10 games
Game Totals at Home: An average of 47.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
Over 43.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
Over 43.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 19.30 pts and allowed 24.60 pts in the last 10 games
Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 23.50 pts and allowed 24.00 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

Total Yards: Gained 361.80 Yds. Allowed 355.10 Yds
Rushing Yards: Gained 141.50 Yds. Allowed 138.90 Yds
Passing Yards: Gained 220.30 Yds. Allowed 216.20 Yds
Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.60 TD. Allowed 3.00 TD
Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
Passing Touchdowns: Scored 2.10 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.10. Allowed 21.60
Total Turnovers: Committed 1.20. Committed by opponents 1.00
Total Penalties: Committed 7.50. Committed by opponents 6.80
Penalty Yards: Lost 62.40 Yds. Gained 51.10 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

Total Yards: Gained 355.40 Yds. Allowed 302.20 Yds
Rushing Yards: Gained 139.00 Yds. Allowed 104.60 Yds
Passing Yards: Gained 216.40 Yds. Allowed 197.60 Yds
Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 3.00 TD
Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.10. Allowed 18.00
Total Turnovers: Committed 1.60. Committed by opponents 1.30
Total Penalties: Committed 5.60. Committed by opponents 6.80
Penalty Yards: Lost 43.60 Yds. Gained 55.60 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

Total Yards: Gained 338.20 Yds. Allowed 383.10 Yds
Rushing Yards: Gained 117.40 Yds. Allowed 163.40 Yds
Passing Yards: Gained 220.80 Yds. Allowed 219.70 Yds
Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.10 TD. Allowed 3.30 TD
Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.30. Allowed 23.20
Total Turnovers: Committed 0.70. Committed by opponents 1.00
Total Penalties: Committed 5.70. Committed by opponents 5.70
Penalty Yards: Lost 45.20 Yds. Gained 52.10 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

Total Yards: Gained 367.30 Yds. Allowed 313.70 Yds
Rushing Yards: Gained 112.60 Yds. Allowed 115.30 Yds
Passing Yards: Gained 254.70 Yds. Allowed 198.40 Yds
Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.70 TD. Allowed 2.50 TD
Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.50. Allowed 19.20
Total Turnovers: Committed 1.60. Committed by opponents 0.80
Total Penalties: Committed 6.10. Committed by opponents 6.40
Penalty Yards: Lost 47.60 Yds. Gained 53.30 Yds

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Team News

Washington Commanders Injuries

Type

Name

Info

John Bates

Groin

Noah Brown

Groin

Percy Butler

Hip

Sam Cosmi

Knee - ACL

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Knee

Jayden Daniels

Knee

Austin Ekeler

Achilles

Will Harris

Leg

Tyree Jackson

Undisclosed

Jonathan Jones

Hamstring

Terry McLaurin

Quadriceps

Lucas Niang

Knee - ACL

Deatrich Wise

Quadriceps

Atlanta Falcons Injuries

Type

Name

Info

Troy Andersen

Knee

Nathan Carter

Hamstring

Jordan Fuller

Knee

Ta'Quon Graham

Undisclosed

KhaDarel Hodge

Groin

Emory Jones

Concussion

Kaleb McGary

Leg

Storm Norton

Ankle

A.J. Terrell

Hamstring

Bralen Trice

Knee

Malik Verdon

Undisclosed

Tyrone Wheatley

Undisclosed

Previous Washington Commanders Lineups

21 Sep NFL

Raiders 24-41 Commanders

AFC East	W	L	PCT	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 5	Strk
Bills	3	0	1.000	102	71	31	2-0-0	1-0-0	2-0-0	3-0-0	3-0-0	3W
Patriots	1	2	0.333	60	68	-8	0-2-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	1-2-0	1-2-0	1L
Jets	0	3	0.000	69	93	-24	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	0-2-0	0-3-0	3L
Dolphins	0	3	0.000	56	97	-41	0-1-0	0-2-0	0-2-0	0-3-0	0-3-0	3L

AFC North	W	L	PCT	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 5	Strk
Bengals	2	1	0.667	58	91	-33	1-0-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	2-0-0	2-1-0	1L
Steelers	2	1	0.667	72	77	-5	0-1-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	2-0-0	2-1-0	1W
Ravens	1	2	0.333	111	96	15	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	1-2-0	1L
Browns	1	2	0.333	46	68	-22	1-1-0	0-1-0	0-2-0	0-2-0	1-2-0	1W

AFC South	W	L	PCT	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 5	Strk
Colts	3	0	1.000	103	56	47	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	3-0-0	3-0-0	3W
Jaguars	2	1	0.667	70	51	19	2-0-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	2-1-0	1W
Texans	0	3	0.000	38	51	-13	0-1-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	0-3-0	3L
Titans	0	3	0.000	51	94	-43	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	0-2-0	0-3-0	3L

AFC West	W	L	PCT	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 5	Strk
Chargers	3	0	1.000	70	50	20	2-0-0	1-0-0	3-0-0	3-0-0	3-0-0	3W
Raiders	1	2	0.333	53	74	-21	0-1-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	1-2-0	2L
Broncos	1	2	0.333	68	64	4	1-0-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	1-2-0	1-2-0	2L
Chiefs	1	2	0.333	60	56	4	0-1-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	1-2-0	1W

NFC East	W	L	PCT	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 5	Strk
Eagles	3	0	1.000	77	63	14	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	2-0-0	3-0-0	3W
Commanders	2	1	0.667	80	57	23	2-0-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	2-1-0	1W
Cowboys	1	2	0.333	74	92	-18	1-0-0	0-2-0	1-1-0	1-2-0	1-2-0	1L
Giants	0	3	0.000	52	83	-31	0-1-0	0-2-0	0-2-0	0-2-0	0-3-0	3L

NFC North	W	L	PCT	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 5	Strk
Packers	2	1	0.667	64	44	20	2-0-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	2-0-0	2-1-0	1L
Vikings	2	1	0.667	81	56	25	1-1-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	2-1-0	1W
Lions	2	1	0.667	103	78	25	1-0-0	1-1-0	1-1-0	1-1-0	2-1-0	2W
Bears	1	2	0.333	76	93	-17	1-1-0	0-1-0	0-2-0	1-2-0	1-2-0	1W

NFC South	W	L	PCT	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 5	Strk
Buccaneers	3	0	1.000	72	66	6	1-0-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	3-0-0	3W
Panthers	1	2	0.333	62	53	9	1-0-0	0-2-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	1-2-0	1W
Falcons	1	2	0.333	42	59	-17	0-1-0	1-1-0	0-2-0	1-2-0	1-2-0	1L
Saints	0	3	0.000	47	90	-43	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-0-0	0-3-0	0-3-0	3L

NFC West	W	L	PCT	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 5	Strk
49ers	3	0	1.000	59	49	10	1-0-0	2-0-0	2-0-0	3-0-0	3-0-0	3W
Cardinals	2	2	0.500	82	74	8	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-2-0	2-2-0	2-2-0	2L
Seahawks	3	1	0.750	111	67	44	1-1-0	2-0-0	1-1-0	2-1-0	3-1-0	3W
Rams	2	1	0.667	73	61	12	1-0-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	2-1-0	1L

NFL Betting Preview: Commanders vs Falcons

Head-to-Head Statistics

Commanders vs Falcons Prediction & Picks

Game Prediction

Over 43.5 Probability

Best Bet

Player Prop Picks

Same Game Parlay Picks

Correct Score Prediction

Commanders vs Falcons Odds

Last 5 & H2H

Live Streaming

Team News

Washington Commanders Injuries

Atlanta Falcons Injuries

Previous Washington Commanders Lineups

Previous Atlanta Falcons Lineups

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