Commanders vs Chiefs Prediction, Picks & Odds | 27 Oct 2025

NFL Betting Preview: Commanders vs Chiefs

The Washington Commanders lock horns with the Kansas City Chiefs in this NFL Week 8 Monday Night Football matchup at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 19:15 on Monday, October 27. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, updated betting odds, head-to-head stats and the latest team news, including injuries.

The Commanders might be the underdogs but +11.5 looks too big on the spread. We’re very keen to snap up the -105 that the betting line is covered against the Chiefs.

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Washington Commanders have been defeated in back-to-back games. On the road, they recently suffered a 44-22 loss against Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. The Commanders put up 341 total yards, made up of 205 through the air and 136 on the ground. They picked up 18 first downs and found the end zone 3 times.

Kansas City Chiefs have enjoyed three consecutive home wins at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Last time out, Las Vegas Raiders were beaten 31-0. The Chiefs moved the ball for 434 yards, split between 282 passing and 152 rushing yards. They picked up 30 first downs to go with 4 trips to the end zone.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Chiefs beat the Commanders when the teams last met. It was a 31-13 scoreline at Northwest Stadium.

Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota

198.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Patrick Mahomes

271.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Commanders vs Chiefs Prediction & Picks

Be ready for Commanders vs Chiefs with our in-depth betting tips, featuring a key match prediction, our expected scoreline, best player prop picks and a value-focused bet builder.

Game Prediction

The Commanders can avoid a big loss in this NFL showdown, with bettors able to back them against the spread. The underdogs should be able to cover +11.5 which have been made available at -105.

Our team of expert NFL handicappers track current injuries closely. Combined with recent form, this helps us identify the best value odds. A data-led approach backed by key stats and the latest team news keeps our analysis sharp.

Key Commanders vs Chiefs stats:

• The +11.5 line has been covered by Commanders in 18 of their last 20 games.
• The +11.5 line has been covered by Commanders in 6 of their last 7 games this season.
• The -11.5 line hasn’t been covered by Chiefs in 15 of their last 20 games at home.
• The -11.5 line hasn’t been covered by Chiefs in 7 of their last 10 games at home.

Commanders +11.5 Probability

According to the best NFL sportsbooks, our pick has a 51.3% chance of winning. Based on our analysts research, we calculate the actual probability to be closer to 60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this wager.

The Winning Margin lines allow you to bet on the Commanders to claim a victory by a certain number of points. It’s a different wager and a viable alternative to the spread.

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Our Game Prediction

Commanders +11.5 @ -105 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Marcus Mariota Over 195.5 Passing Yards -114

The odds for Marcus Mariota (Commanders) to record more than 195.5 passing yards are -114. We can back him in the QB Passing Yards market and hope the Over hits.

Latest Marcus Mariota Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+300

First

+1800

Passing Yards

Over 198.5

-112

Under 198.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 30.5

-112

Under 30.5

-112

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Jacory Croskey-Merritt Anytime TD +190

The odds for Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) to make it to the end zone are +190. Attractive odds are available for this Anytime Touchdown Scorer wager, and we believe it's a value proposition for him to take it to the house.

Latest Jacory Croskey-Merritt Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+175

First

+1000

Receiving Yards

Over 5.5

-112

Under 5.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 51.5

-112

Under 51.5

-112

Correct Score Prediction

Commanders 20 - 30 Chiefs

Let’s roll the dice and try the Chiefs to enjoy a 30-20 winning scoreline here. There are massive odds for this potential outcome and it’s a fun type of wager to enjoy.

Commanders vs Chiefs Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

According to the Moneyline betting odds, Kansas City Chiefs are red-hot -192 favorites with the sportsbooks and that means a 66% chance of winning this game. Washington Commanders are the underdogs at +160 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

The spread is calculated to be 3.5, while total points comes in at 48.5. The Totals offers NFL fans an alternative way of getting involved. There’s the chance to back Under 48.5 at -110.

National Football League fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of game lines and team props which are available for every game on the coupon. Visit the top betting apps and find the best value wagers.

Moneyline

Commanders

+160

Chiefs

-192

Point Spread

Commanders +3.5

-105

Chiefs -3.5

-115

Total Points

Under 48.5

-110

Over 48.5

-110

Rashee Rice can be backed to score a touchdown at anytime at -100. He is the favorite to score the first TD at odds of +600.

Touchdown

Rashee Rice (Chiefs)

First TD

+600

Anytime TD

-100

Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

First TD

+600

Anytime TD

-105

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs)

First TD

+850

Anytime TD

+155

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+170

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+175

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+260

Zach Ertz (Commanders)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+270

Marquise Brown (Chiefs)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+320

Marcus Mariota (Commanders)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+300

Terry McLaurin (Commanders)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+310

Brashard Smith (Chiefs)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+350

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+360

Kareem Hunt (Chiefs)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+320

Noah Gray (Chiefs)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+500

JuJu Smith-Schuster (Chiefs)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+650

Tyquan Thornton (Chiefs)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+750

Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Commanders)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+800

Jaylin Lane (Commanders)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+900

Jeremy McNichols (Commanders)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1000

Luke McCaffrey (Commanders)

First TD

+7500

Anytime TD

+1000

Chris Moore (Commanders)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1100

Nikko Remigio (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3300

Ben Sinnott (Commanders)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1800

Robert Tonyan (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

Colson Yankoff (Commanders)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1800

John Bates (Commanders)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1300

Jalen Royals (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Jared Wiley (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

Receiving Yards

Rashee Rice (Chiefs)

Over 67.5

-112

Under 67.5

-112

Terry McLaurin (Commanders)

Over 45.5

-112

Under 45.5

-112

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

Over 45.5

-112

Under 45.5

-112

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders)

Over 44.5

-112

Under 44.5

-112

Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

Over 40.5

-112

Under 40.5

-112

Zach Ertz (Commanders)

Over 30.5

-112

Under 30.5

-112

Marquise Brown (Chiefs)

Over 22.5

-112

Under 22.5

-112

Brashard Smith (Chiefs)

Over 16.5

-112

Under 16.5

-112

JuJu Smith-Schuster (Chiefs)

Over 12.5

-112

Under 12.5

-112

Jaylin Lane (Commanders)

Over 11.5

-112

Under 11.5

-112

Jeremy McNichols (Commanders)

Over 10.5

-112

Under 10.5

-112

Noah Gray (Chiefs)

Over 8.5

-112

Under 8.5

-112

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs)

Over 7.5

-112

Under 7.5

-112

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders)

Over 5.5

-112

Under 5.5

-112

Tyquan Thornton (Chiefs)

Over 1.5

-130

Under 1.5

+102

Rushing Yards

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders)

Over 51.5

-112

Under 51.5

-112

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs)

Over 49.5

-112

Under 49.5

-112

Marcus Mariota (Commanders)

Over 30.5

-112

Under 30.5

-112

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Over 21.5

-112

Under 21.5

-112

Kareem Hunt (Chiefs)

Over 18.5

-112

Under 18.5

-112

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders)

Over 6.5

-118

Under 6.5

-108

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

Over 4.5

-100

Under 4.5

-128

Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Over 271.5

-112

Under 271.5

-112

Marcus Mariota (Commanders)

Over 198.5

-112

Under 198.5

-112

Micro betting provides a rollercoaster ride for NFL bettors. It can be great to enjoy the live lines, with the opportunity to wager on the Next Scoring Play. Watch the live action before deciding which way to go.

Chiefs Building a Fortress at Home

The Chiefs have won three straight at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. They have nine wins and one loss in the last 10 games at home, posting 25.10 points per matchup while yielding 16.70.

The Commanders have five wins and five losses in the last 10 games away from home, putting up 24.60 points on average and giving up 28.50.

The last time the Chiefs faced the Commanders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, they won 24-14.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O47.5	U47.5
Chiefs Home Stats		9-1	41.80	25.10	16.70	2	8
Commanders Away Stats		5-5	53.10	24.60	28.50	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O47.5 = Games Over 47.5 Points
• U47.5 = Games Under 47.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Washington Commanders Stats

Kansas City Chiefs Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +11.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• +11.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -11.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• -11.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 54.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 53.10 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 47.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 47.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 27.10 pts and allowed 27.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 24.60 pts and allowed 28.50 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 47.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 41.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 47.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 47.5 at Home: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 26.30 pts and allowed 20.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 25.10 pts and allowed 16.70 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 359.60 Yds. Allowed 381.40 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 140.50 Yds. Allowed 141.30 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 219.10 Yds. Allowed 240.10 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.30 TD. Allowed 3.30 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.70. Allowed 21.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.20. Committed by opponents 0.90
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.10. Committed by opponents 7.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 54.00 Yds. Gained 58.40 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 344.90 Yds. Allowed 301.70 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 109.80 Yds. Allowed 117.10 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 235.10 Yds. Allowed 184.60 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.10 TD. Allowed 2.30 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 1.00 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.70. Allowed 17.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.60. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.30. Committed by opponents 6.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 51.30 Yds. Gained 47.30 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 329.40 Yds. Allowed 390.50 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 120.30 Yds. Allowed 154.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 209.10 Yds. Allowed 235.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.90 TD. Allowed 3.40 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.20. Allowed 22.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.00
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.50. Committed by opponents 7.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 52.10 Yds. Gained 56.40 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 334.70 Yds. Allowed 297.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 102.80 Yds. Allowed 107.90 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 231.90 Yds. Allowed 189.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.90 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.10. Allowed 17.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.20. Committed by opponents 0.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 4.50. Committed by opponents 6.60
• Penalty Yards: Lost 34.10 Yds. Gained 56.10 Yds

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