Commanders vs Dolphins Prediction, Picks & Odds | 16 Nov 2025

NFL Madrid Betting Preview: Commanders vs Dolphins

The NFL heads to Spain as the Washington Commanders go up against the Miami Dolphins at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid, with kickoff scheduled for 09:30 on Sunday, November 16.

The Dolphins at -2.5 could be the best bet to have on the spread. Odds of -120 are available and our prediction is a solid win when the Fins go up against the Commanders.

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Washington Commanders have been defeated in five straight games. They were recently beaten at home to Detroit Lions by a 44-22 scoreline at Northwest Stadium. The Commanders moved the ball for 288 yards, including 195 passing and 93 rushing yards. They picked up 14 first downs and produced 3 TD's, including 2 passing scores and a rushing touchdown.

Miami Dolphins won their last game, beating Buffalo Bills at home. It was a 30-13 win at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins moved the ball for 370 yards, made up of 173 through the air and 197 on the ground. The offense managed 19 first downs and found the end zone 4 times.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Dolphins won the last matchup between the pair. Enjoying a 45-15 triumph when facing the Commanders at Northwest Stadium.

Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota

202.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Tua Tagovailoa

233.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Commanders vs Dolphins Prediction & Picks

Our Commanders vs Dolphins betting guide delivers expert insight, including a main match pick, scoreline advice, standout player props and bet builder recommendations. Dive into each section below for more.

Game Prediction

Get with the Dolphins with a -2.5 spread. We’re backing the favorites at odds of -120 to enjoy a solid win in the NFL Madrid showdown.

Our NFL handicappers study recent form and take injuries into account when assessing each matchup. Before delivering a verdict, we combine that insight with the latest stats to strengthen our analysis.

Key Commanders vs Dolphins stats:

• The +2.5 line hasn’t been covered by Commanders in 4 consecutive games.
• The +2.5 line hasn’t been covered by Commanders in 6 of their last 10 games.

Dolphins -2.5 Probability

According to the latest betting odds, our pick has a 54.6% chance of winning. However, our cappers think that the probability is close to 60% taking all factors into consideration. This wager can therefore be backed with confidence.

Selling points can be a great alternative and allows bettors to enjoy a bigger return on the same selection. For a more conservative spread pick, you can alternatively buy points.

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Our Game Prediction

Dolphins -2.5 @ -120 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Over 233.5 Passing Yards -114

You can place a bet on Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) at -114 to reach over 233.5 passing yards. We’re confident in taking him to cover the QB Passing Yards line and bettors can back this pick with conviction.

Latest Tua Tagovailoa Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+2200

First

+10000

Passing Yards

Over 233.5

-112

Under 233.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 1.5

-108

Under 1.5

-118

Correct Score Prediction

Commanders 24 - 30 Dolphins

Correct score betting might be tough to predict but there’s a huge potential return if you get it right. We’ll try the Dolphins to achieve a 30-24 victory at monster odds.

Commanders vs Dolphins Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

With the sportsbooks giving them a 37% probability of winning this game, Miami Dolphins might be a popular parlay pick. That is reflected in their +170 Moneyline betting odds. At -204, Washington Commanders are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

The current spread is 4.5 and the total points line is 48.5. Having a wager on the Totals is one of the most popular NFL bets. There’s the chance to back Under 48.5 at -110.

When it comes to the National Football League, the best sportsbooks deliver a wide variety of game lines and team props. With so many options available, it’s worth taking your time to find the bet that fits your view of the matchup.

Moneyline

Commanders

-204

Dolphins

+170

Point Spread

Commanders -4.5

-110

Dolphins +4.5

-110

Total Points

Under 48.5

-110

Over 48.5

-110

De'Von Achane is the market leader to be First TD Scorer at +370. Alternatively, there’s the chance to back him to register a touchdown at any stage at -169.

Touchdown

De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

First TD

+370

Anytime TD

-169

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins)

First TD

+600

Anytime TD

+115

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+180

Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Commanders)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+175

Zach Ertz (Commanders)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+190

Malik Washington (Dolphins)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+210

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+190

Marcus Mariota (Commanders)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+270

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Dolphins)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+430

Greg Dulcich (Dolphins)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+450

Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+450

Jaylin Lane (Commanders)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+420

Chase Edmonds (Commanders)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+440

Jeremy McNichols (Commanders)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+440

Treylon Burks (Commanders)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+440

Julian Hill (Dolphins)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+550

Robbie Chosen (Commanders)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+650

John Bates (Commanders)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+1000

Jaylen Wright (Dolphins)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+1000

Tahj Washington (Dolphins)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1000

Dee Eskridge (Dolphins)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1000

Chris Moore (Commanders)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1000

Ben Sinnott (Commanders)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1700

Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Dolphins)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1600

Colson Yankoff (Commanders)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1500

Alec Ingold (Dolphins)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1600

Hayden Rucci (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Jack Jones (Dolphins)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Receiving Yards

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins)

Over 76.5

-112

Under 76.5

-112

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders)

Over 47.5

-112

Under 47.5

-112

Zach Ertz (Commanders)

Over 44.5

-112

Under 44.5

-112

De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

Over 36.5

-112

Under 36.5

-112

Malik Washington (Dolphins)

Over 28.5

-112

Under 28.5

-112

Greg Dulcich (Dolphins)

Over 22.5

-112

Under 22.5

-112

Robbie Chosen (Commanders)

Over 22.5

-112

Under 22.5

-112

Jaylin Lane (Commanders)

Over 21.5

-112

Under 21.5

-112

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Dolphins)

Over 14.5

-112

Under 14.5

-112

John Bates (Commanders)

Over 9.5

-112

Under 9.5

-112

Rushing Yards

De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

Over 81.5

-112

Under 81.5

-112

Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Commanders)

Over 40.5

-112

Under 40.5

-112

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders)

Over 29.5

-112

Under 29.5

-112

Marcus Mariota (Commanders)

Over 26.5

-112

Under 26.5

-112

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)

Over 1.5

-108

Under 1.5

-118

Passing Yards

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)

Over 233.5

-112

Under 233.5

-112

Marcus Mariota (Commanders)

Over 202.5

-112

Under 202.5

-112

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Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Washington Commanders Stats

Miami Dolphins Stats

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• +2.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -2.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 50.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 52.20 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 47.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 47.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 22.30 pts and allowed 28.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 23.50 pts and allowed 28.70 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 46.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 50.20 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 47.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 47.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 21.00 pts and allowed 25.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 27.30 pts and allowed 22.90 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 325.30 Yds. Allowed 394.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 135.20 Yds. Allowed 134.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 190.10 Yds. Allowed 260.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.90 TD. Allowed 3.30 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 2.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.30. Allowed 21.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.20. Committed by opponents 0.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.20. Committed by opponents 7.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 61.20 Yds. Gained 59.90 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 299.30 Yds. Allowed 346.90 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 107.20 Yds. Allowed 139.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 192.10 Yds. Allowed 207.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.40 TD. Allowed 2.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.20. Allowed 20.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.70. Committed by opponents 1.00
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.30. Committed by opponents 7.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 52.30 Yds. Gained 58.30 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 329.00 Yds. Allowed 390.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 117.00 Yds. Allowed 146.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 212.00 Yds. Allowed 243.50 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.80 TD. Allowed 3.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.90 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.80. Allowed 22.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.40. Committed by opponents 7.60
• Penalty Yards: Lost 53.10 Yds. Gained 61.00 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 356.10 Yds. Allowed 361.50 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 111.30 Yds. Allowed 108.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 244.80 Yds. Allowed 252.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.90 TD. Allowed 2.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.00. Allowed 20.00
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.10
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.30. Committed by opponents 8.50
• Penalty Yards: Lost 37.90 Yds. Gained 67.00 Yds

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