Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 05 Aug 2025

WNBA Betting Preview: Sun vs Mercury

The Connecticut Sun square off against the Phoenix Mercury in this WNBA matchup at Footprint Center, with tip-off scheduled for 22:00 on Tuesday, August 5. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.

Mercury to Outclass Sun

The Mercury can finish well clear of the Sun and that means we’re going for them against the spread. There is -110 on offer that the favorites are able to cover a -15 line.

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7 Wins in Previous 10 H2H Matchups for Sun

Connecticut Sun lost when they last took to the court. At Mohegan Sun Arena, they were turned over 87-78 at home to New York Liberty.

Phoenix Mercury won their last game 83-67. This was a road victory at Wintrust Arena against Chicago Sky.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Mercury won the last matchup between the pair. Enjoying a 83-75 triumph when facing the Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena. In the past 10 H2H meetings, the Sun have won seven.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
4  Mercury	27	17	3643	3525	118	15-7	12-10	3L
11  Sun	11	33	3337	3782	-445	7-15	4-18	2L

View Full Standings

Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

Get ahead of the game with our Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury betting rundown, featuring our trusted match prediction, likely score outcome, standout player prop plays and a fully loaded bet builder.

Game Prediction

There’s a case to be made for Mercury on the spread in this WNBA matchup. Our prediction is that the betting favorites can cover the -15 line at odds of -110 considering they should be superior.

The handicappers at Sportsgambler.com always keep close tabs on team news as it develops. We also rely on recent form and key WNBA stats to help shape our basketball predictions and guide the final call.

Key Sun vs Mercury stats:

• The +15 line hasn’t been covered by Sun in 7 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The +15 line hasn’t been covered by Sun in 3 of their last 5 games on the road.

Mercury -15 Probability

According to the latest odds, our pick has a 52.4% chance of delivering a return. However, our cappers think that the probability sits between 55-60% taking all factors into consideration. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

It’s possible to move the line for your selection and this allows bettors to get increasingly bigger odds. If you’re looking for more juice, then this option could tick the boxes.

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Best Bet

Mercury -15 @ -110 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Satou Sabally Under 6.5 Rebounds -164

Satou Sabally (Mercury) is available at -164 to have Under 6.5 rebounds. It stands to reason that she will fall short of the line which looks generous for this Player Rebounds bet.

Latest Satou Sabally Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 15.5

-102

Under 15.5

-127

Rebounds

Over 6.5

+120

Under 6.5

-156

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Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 Assists -135

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) can be backed to rack up Over 8.5 assists at -135. The total is attractive when it comes to betting on Player Assists and we’re confident of landing a return.

Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 15.5

-103

Under 15.5

-125

Assists

Over 8.5

-127

Under 8.5

-102

Rebounds

Over 8.5

-123

Under 8.5

-105

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Correct Score Prediction

Sun 72 - 90 Mercury

Let’s roll the dice and try the Mercury to enjoy a 90-72 winning scoreline here. There are massive odds for this potential outcome and it’s a fun type of wager to enjoy.

Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Mercury Big Favorites With the Books

At betting odds of -1250 with the sportsbooks, Phoenix Mercury are regarded as 93% likely to win this WNBA game. Connecticut Sun are the underdogs at +680 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

The spread is currently 14.5, with the total points line at 170. The beauty of the Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. If you’re going for Under 170, this outcome can be backed at -110.

Consider every angle when placing your women's basketball bets. The best sportsbooks have hundreds of team props and game lines and it’s all about finding a wager which matches your prediction of the game.

Moneyline

Sun

+680

Mercury

-1250

Point Spread

Sun +14.5

-106

Mercury -14.5

-114

Total Points

Under 170

-110

Over 170

-110

Kahleah Copper Favorite to Score the Most Points

The favorite to score most points is Kahleah Copper. You can get +102 that she scores Over 17.5 points or -132 that she goes Under.

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 17.5

+102

Under 17.5

-132

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 15.5

-103

Under 15.5

-125

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 15.5

-102

Under 15.5

-127

Tina Charles (Sun)

Over 14.5

-123

Under 14.5

-104

Marina Mabrey (Sun)

Over 13.5

-108

Under 13.5

-120

Aneesah Morrow (Sun)

Over 9.5

+108

Under 9.5

-141

Monique Akoa Makani (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-118

Under 8.5

-110

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-127

Under 8.5

-102

Marina Mabrey (Sun)

Over 3.5

-109

Under 3.5

-119

Monique Akoa Makani (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+155

Under 3.5

-204

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-123

Under 8.5

-105

Aneesah Morrow (Sun)

Over 7.5

-143

Under 7.5

+110

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 6.5

+120

Under 6.5

-156

Tina Charles (Sun)

Over 5.5

-152

Under 5.5

+116

Marina Mabrey (Sun)

Over 4.5

+120

Under 4.5

-156

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+115

Under 3.5

-149

Monique Akoa Makani (Mercury)

Over 2.5

-127

Under 2.5

-102

Micro Betting

Instead of focusing on the overall outcome, some basketball bettors prefer to look at the micro betting lines. As the name suggests, it means placing short-term in-game wagers and this might include Next Field Goal, with the options being for a two-pointer or a three-pointer.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Connecticut Sun Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 1 win and 9 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +15 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• +15 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -15 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -15 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 165.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 161.10 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 167.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 167.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 81.30 pts and allowed 84.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 69.40 pts and allowed 91.70 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 164.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 168.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 167.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 167.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 82.40 pts and allowed 81.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 86.80 pts and allowed 81.70 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 20252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	34	10	3787	3373	414	20-2	14-8	1W
2  Aces	30	14	3680	3552	128	17-5	13-9	16W
3  Dream	30	14	3712	3378	334	16-6	14-8	6W
4  Mercury	27	17	3643	3525	118	15-7	12-10	3L
5  Liberty	27	17	3713	3534	179	17-5	10-12	3W
6  Fever	24	20	3734	3586	148	13-9	11-11	3W
7  Storm	23	21	3614	3524	90	10-12	13-9	1W
8  Valkyries	23	21	3420	3359	61	14-8	9-13	3L
9  Sparks	21	23	3769	3882	-113	9-13	12-10	1L
10  Mystics	16	28	3394	3589	-195	10-12	6-16	10L
11  Sun	11	33	3337	3782	-445	7-15	4-18	2L
12  Sky	10	34	3335	3777	-442	6-16	4-18	4L
13  Wings	10	34	3594	3871	-277	6-16	4-18	1W