Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Picks & Odds | 18 May 2025

Thunder Against the Spread Look the Value Pick

No. 4 Denver Nuggets (50-32, 24-17 Away) play No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14, 35-6 at Home) in game 7 of this NBA Playoffs Western Conference Semifinal series at Paycom Center.

There’s a strong case for backing the Thunder against the spread when they play the Nuggets. The line looks really appealing considering you can get -108 when it comes to the favorites at -8.5.

Nuggets Claimed 119-107 Victory in Last H2H

When Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder met on Thursday night, there was a 119-107 victory at Ball Arena for the Nuggets.

Nikola Jokic had 29 points and 14 rebounds for the Nuggets, Jamal Murray scored 25 points, while Christian Braun registered 23 points and 11 rebounds. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander racked up 32 points for the Thunder, Chet Holmgren totaled 19 points and 11 rebounds, with Alex Caruso scoring 10 points.

Head-to-Head Statistics

There has been five wins apiece in the past 10 H2H meetings.

NBA Reg. Season	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Nuggets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Thunder	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

View Full Standings

Confirmed Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets lineup: Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon.

Oklahoma City Thunder lineup: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein.

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction & Picks

We are confident that the favorites will cover the spread in this NBA contest. -8.5 seems a generous line and you can get -108 that Thunder will win by a bigger margin.

Team news plays a valuable role and we’re always monitoring the players who have an injury concern. We’ve also got a handle on the form guide, with lots of data provided which puts you in the picture in terms of stats.

Key Nuggets vs Thunder stats:

• The -8.5 line has been covered by Thunder in 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• The -8.5 line has been covered by Thunder in 15 of their last 20 games at home.

Thunder -8.5 Probability

According to the sportsbooks, there’s a 51.8% likelihood of our pick landing a return. After careful examination, our analysts have this probability close to 60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this bet.

As a betting alternative, you can choose to buy or sell points when it comes to your spread pick. Buy if you want a safer wager and sell to get more juice from the line.

Best Bet

Thunder -8.5 @ -108 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Nikola Jokic Under 8.5 Assists -139

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) has failed to cover the 8.5 assists total in 9 of the past 10 games. Based on this stat, it could be that he doesn’t cover the line and this Player Assists wager is available at -139.

Latest Nikola Jokic Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 30.5

-108

Under 30.5

-123

Assists

Over 8.5

+105

Under 8.5

-139

Rebounds

Over 14.5

-112

Under 14.5

-120

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Isaiah Hartenstein Over 10.5 Points -108

Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder) has racked up Over 10.5 points in 3 straight games at home. It makes sense to bet on him to cover the line and there are odds of -108 available for this Player Points wager.

Latest Isaiah Hartenstein Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 10.5

-112

Under 10.5

-120

Assists

Over 2.5

-123

Under 2.5

-108

Rebounds

Over 8.5

-137

Under 8.5

+102

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Correct Score Prediction

Nuggets 104 - 115 Thunder

A 115-104 win for the Thunder is clearly a risky wager although this could be an exciting correct score option where there’s the chance to enjoy a huge potential return.

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Thunder Win on the Cards According to the Books

Sportsbooks’ favorites Oklahoma City Thunder are regarded as likeliest victors for this NBA game and the -323 about them triumphing means a 76% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. At +265, Denver Nuggets are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

The current spread is 8.5 and total points is 214.5. The beauty of the Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. If you're keen on Over 214.5, this selection is available at -110.

Whether you are betting pre-game or in-game, you can feast on hundreds of game lines and team props. The selections are practically endless and it’s great to have so many options.

Moneyline

Nuggets

+265

Thunder

-323

Point Spread

Nuggets +8.5

-110

Thunder -8.5

-110

Total Points

Under 214.5

-110

Over 214.5

-110

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Favorite to Score the Most Baskets

In terms of landing the most baskets, favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is available at -110 to rack up Over 31.5 points. If you want to go Under, then -120 is available.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 31.5

-110

Under 31.5

-120

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 30.5

-108

Under 30.5

-123

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 22.5

-109

Under 22.5

-122

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 19.5

-118

Under 19.5

-114

Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Over 14.5

-125

Under 14.5

-108

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 13.5

-120

Under 13.5

-112

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 13.5

-118

Under 13.5

-114

Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets)

Over 10.5

-127

Under 10.5

-105

Russell Westbrook (Nuggets)

Over 10.5

-125

Under 10.5

-106

Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)

Over 10.5

-112

Under 10.5

-120

Luguentz Dort (Thunder)

Over 9.5

-100

Under 9.5

-132

Alex Caruso (Thunder)

Over 7.5

-130

Under 7.5

-103

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 8.5

+105

Under 8.5

-139

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 6.5

-143

Under 6.5

+108

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 5.5

-154

Under 5.5

+115

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 4.5

-147

Under 4.5

+110

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 3.5

+120

Under 3.5

-159

Russell Westbrook (Nuggets)

Over 3.5

-135

Under 3.5

+102

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 2.5

-119

Under 2.5

-109

Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)

Over 2.5

-123

Under 2.5

-108

Alex Caruso (Thunder)

Over 2.5

-143

Under 2.5

+110

Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Over 1.5

+102

Under 1.5

-133

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 14.5

-112

Under 14.5

-120

Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Over 9.5

-114

Under 9.5

-118

Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)

Over 8.5

-137

Under 8.5

+102

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 6.5

-104

Under 6.5

-128

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 6.5

-118

Under 6.5

-112

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 5.5

-109

Under 5.5

-122

Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets)

Over 5.5

-147

Under 5.5

+110

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 4.5

+110

Under 4.5

-147

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 4.5

-156

Under 4.5

+117

Russell Westbrook (Nuggets)

Over 4.5

+112

Under 4.5

-149

Alex Caruso (Thunder)

Over 3.5

+134

Under 3.5

-175

Luguentz Dort (Thunder)

Over 2.5

-156

Under 2.5

+117

Micro Betting

Micro betting is something that’s really popular with bettors, with basketball fans essentially being able to wager in-game when it comes to score, team and player props. Check out the two-way lines where you can bet whether the next shot will be a Two-pointer or a Three-pointer.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Denver Nuggets Stats

Oklahoma City Thunder Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +8.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games
• +8.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -8.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -8.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 221.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 225.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 213.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 213.5 on the Road: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 110.80 pts and allowed 110.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 109.10 pts and allowed 116.30 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 221.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 234.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 213.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 213.5 at Home: Covered in 9 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 116.30 pts and allowed 105.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 126.00 pts and allowed 108.80 pts in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 27.20 (52%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 12.60 (36%)
• Free Throws Made: 18.60 (77.82%)
• Rebounds: Total 47, Offensive 11.90, Defensive 35.10
• Assists: 23.00
• Blocks: 5.20
• Steals: 7.70
• Turnovers : 13.90
• Personal Fouls: 20.70

Last 10 Games on the Road

• 2-Pointers Made: 29.10 (53%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 11.10 (36%)
• Free Throws Made: 17.60 (78.57%)
• Rebounds: Total 44.7, Offensive 12.30, Defensive 32.40
• Assists: 24.20
• Blocks: 4.70
• Steals: 6.40
• Turnovers : 14.30
• Personal Fouls: 19.40

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 29.70 (54%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 12.50 (32%)
• Free Throws Made: 19.40 (77.6%)
• Rebounds: Total 46.4, Offensive 12.10, Defensive 34.30
• Assists: 25.40
• Blocks: 6.40
• Steals: 10.10
• Turnovers : 11.00
• Personal Fouls: 21.70

Last 10 Home Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 30.60 (54%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 15.50 (40%)
• Free Throws Made: 18.30 (80.62%)
• Rebounds: Total 45.4, Offensive 11.10, Defensive 34.30
• Assists: 27.50
• Blocks: 7.00
• Steals: 10.10
• Turnovers : 10.10
• Personal Fouls: 19.40

Team News

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Oklahoma City Thunder Confirmed Lineup

2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

5 Luguentz Dort

7 Chet Holmgren

8 Jalen Williams

55 Isaiah Hartenstein

Denver Nuggets Confirmed Lineup

0 Christian Braun

1 Michael Porter Jr.

15 Nikola Jokic

27 Jamal Murray

32 Aaron Gordon

NBA Regular Season Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Division Conference League

East Atlantic	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Celtics	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Nets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Knicks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
76ers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Raptors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

East Central	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Bulls	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pistons	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pacers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Bucks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

East Southeast	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Hawks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Hornets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Heat	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Magic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Wizards	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

West Northwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Nuggets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Timberwolves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Thunder	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Trail Blazers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

West Pacific	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Warriors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Clippers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Lakers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Suns	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Kings	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

West Southwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Mavericks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Rockets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Grizzlies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pelicans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Spurs	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

Eastern Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Celtics	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Nets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Knicks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
76ers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Raptors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Bulls	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pistons	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pacers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Bucks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Hawks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Hornets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Heat	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Magic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Wizards	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

Western Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Nuggets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Timberwolves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Thunder	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Trail Blazers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Warriors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Clippers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Lakers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Suns	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Kings	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Mavericks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Rockets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Grizzlies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pelicans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Spurs	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

NBA	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Hawks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Celtics	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Nets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Hornets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Bulls	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Mavericks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Nuggets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pistons	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Warriors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Rockets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pacers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Clippers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Lakers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Grizzlies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Heat	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Bucks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Timberwolves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pelicans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Knicks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Thunder	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Magic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
76ers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Suns	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Trail Blazers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Kings	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Spurs	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Raptors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Wizards	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

• W = Wins
• L = Losses
• PCT = Winning Percentage
• PPG = Points Per Game
• OPP PPG = Opponent Points Per Game
• DIFF = Average Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Road = Away Record
• Div = Division Record
• Conf = Conference Record
• Last 10 = Record last 10 games
• Strk = Current Streak