Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 15 Aug 2025

WNBA Betting Preview: Aces vs Mercury

The Las Vegas Aces square off against the Phoenix Mercury in this WNBA matchup at Footprint Center, with tip-off scheduled for 22:00 on Friday, August 15. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.

We Think Under 168.5 is the Value Bet

The -108 about Under 168.5 points makes plenty of appeal and represents value in our eyes. We’re not sure if the Aces and the Mercury can combine to reach that total.

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Aces Have 8 Wins in Last 10 H2H Battles

Las Vegas Aces claimed a home victory in their previous game. A 83-77 win occurred against New York Liberty at Michelob Ultra Arena.

Phoenix Mercury were defeated last time out. Footprint Center saw them beaten at home to Atlanta Dream by a 74-66 scoreline.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Aces won the last matchup between the pair. Enjoying a 84-81 triumph when facing the Mercury at Footprint Center. In the past 10 H2H meetings, the Aces have won eight.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
2  Aces	30	14	3680	3552	128	17-5	13-9	16W
4  Mercury	27	17	3643	3525	118	15-7	12-10	3L

View Full Standings

Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

From our key match prediction to correct score pick, top player prop insights and a builder tailored for value — our Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury betting tips covers it all.

Game Prediction

We’re not sure that the two teams will collectively reach a certain points threshold. Our pick is to take the -108 that there are Under 168.5 points in this WNBA game.

Tracking injury updates is a big part of our analysis and team news plays a major role in shaping our basketball predictions. We combine this with recent form and the most important WNBA stats to get a complete picture.

Key Aces vs Mercury stats:

• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in 14 of the last 20 Aces games on the road.
• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Aces games on the road.
• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Aces games on the road.
• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 5 Mercury games.
• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Mercury games.
• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in 14 of the last 20 Mercury games at home.
• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 games between these teams.

Under 168.5 Probability

Based on the latest betting odds from the best basketball sportsbooks, our pick carries a 51.8% chance of winning. Based on our cappers in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be closer to 60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

If you’re wanting bigger odds for your Under bet, then there’s a way of changing the line and shooting for a lower points total in the hope of a better return.

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Best Bet

Under 168.5 Points @ -108 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 Assists +110

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) can be backed to total Under 8.5 assists at +110. Taking everything into consideration, we can feel confident that she will fall short of the line.

Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 14.5

-119

Under 14.5

-109

Assists

Over 8.5

-152

Under 8.5

+117

Rebounds

Over 9.5

+102

Under 9.5

-132

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Satou Sabally Under 14.5 Points -130

Satou Sabally (Mercury) can be backed to total Under 14.5 points at -130. We’re happy to take this selection when it comes to her failing to cover the total on Player Points.

Latest Satou Sabally Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 15.5

-108

Under 15.5

-120

Rebounds

Over 5.5

-152

Under 5.5

+116

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Correct Score Prediction

Aces 78 - 87 Mercury

We’re going for the Mercury to achieve a 87-78 win and the good news is that there are massive odds for this outcome. A small stake can return a potentially large amount.

Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Latest Odds Suggest Mercury Win

Sportsbooks’ favorites Phoenix Mercury are regarded as likeliest victors for this WNBA game and the -192 about them triumphing means a 66% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. Las Vegas Aces are the underdogs at +156 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

4.5 is where the spread lies, with total points being 168.5 right now. A Total wager is always available and can often provide value selections. If you want to bet Under 168.5, there are odds of -112.

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Moneyline

Aces

+156

Mercury

-192

Point Spread

Aces +4.5

-110

Mercury -4.5

-110

Total Points

Under 168.5

-112

Over 168.5

-108

A'ja Wilson Favorite to Score the Most Points

The favorite to hit the most buckets is A'ja Wilson. Odds of -120 can be found for her scoring Over 22.5 points and there is -108 for her to go Under.

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 22.5

-120

Under 22.5

-108

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 16.5

+110

Under 16.5

-143

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 15.5

-119

Under 15.5

-109

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 15.5

-108

Under 15.5

-120

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-119

Under 14.5

-109

Jewell Loyd (Aces)

Over 11.5

-114

Under 11.5

-114

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 9.5

-115

Under 9.5

-112

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-152

Under 8.5

+117

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 5.5

+122

Under 5.5

-159

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 4.5

-156

Under 4.5

+120

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 3.5

+105

Under 3.5

-135

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 11.5

+104

Under 11.5

-135

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 9.5

+102

Under 9.5

-132

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 5.5

-152

Under 5.5

+116

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 4.5

+113

Under 4.5

-147

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+118

Under 3.5

-154

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 3.5

-105

Under 3.5

-123

Micro Betting

Micro betting provides a rollercoaster ride for basketball bettors. It can be great to enjoy the live lines, with the opportunity to wager on the Next Field Goal. Watch the live action before deciding which way to go.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Las Vegas Aces Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -3 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +3 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 169.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 165.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 163.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 163.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 86.40 pts and allowed 82.80 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 85.80 pts and allowed 79.60 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 161.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 159.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 163.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 163.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 81.40 pts and allowed 80.10 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 81.80 pts and allowed 77.70 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 20252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	34	10	3787	3373	414	20-2	14-8	1W
2  Aces	30	14	3680	3552	128	17-5	13-9	16W
3  Dream	30	14	3712	3378	334	16-6	14-8	6W
4  Mercury	27	17	3643	3525	118	15-7	12-10	3L
5  Liberty	27	17	3713	3534	179	17-5	10-12	3W
6  Fever	24	20	3734	3586	148	13-9	11-11	3W
7  Storm	23	21	3614	3524	90	10-12	13-9	1W
8  Valkyries	23	21	3420	3359	61	14-8	9-13	3L
9  Sparks	21	23	3769	3882	-113	9-13	12-10	1L
10  Mystics	16	28	3394	3589	-195	10-12	6-16	10L
11  Sun	11	33	3337	3782	-445	7-15	4-18	2L
12  Sky	10	34	3335	3777	-442	6-16	4-18	4L
13  Wings	10	34	3594	3871	-277	6-16	4-18	1W