Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds | WNBA, 15 Aug 2025

We Think Under 168.5 is the Value Bet

The -108 about Under 168.5 points makes plenty of appeal and represents value in our eyes. We’re not sure if the Aces and the Mercury can combine to reach that total.

Aces Have 8 Wins in Last 10 H2H Battles

Las Vegas Aces claimed a home victory in their previous game. A 83-77 win occurred against New York Liberty at Michelob Ultra Arena.

Phoenix Mercury were defeated last time out. Footprint Center saw them beaten at home to Atlanta Dream by a 74-66 scoreline.

The Aces won the last matchup between the pair. Enjoying a 84-81 triumph when facing the Mercury at Footprint Center. In the past 10 H2H meetings, the Aces have won eight.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
4  Mercury	19	12	2577	2465	112	11-5	8-7	1L
5  Aces	19	14	2708	2730	-22	11-5	8-9	5W

View Full Standings

Expert WNBA Analysis

Tracking injury updates is a big part of our analysis and team news plays a major role in shaping our basketball predictions. We combine this with recent form and the most important WNBA stats to get a complete picture.

Key Aces vs Mercury stats:

• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in 14 of the last 20 Aces games on the road.
• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Aces games on the road.
• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Aces games on the road.
• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 5 Mercury games.
• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Mercury games.
• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in 14 of the last 20 Mercury games at home.
• The 168.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 games between these teams.

Aces vs Mercury Prediction

We’re not sure that the two teams will collectively reach a certain points threshold. Our pick is to take the -108 that there are Under 168.5 points in this WNBA game.

If you’re wanting bigger odds for your Under bet, then there’s a way of changing the line and shooting for a lower points total in the hope of a better return.

Under 168.5 Probability

Based on the latest betting odds from the best basketball sportsbooks, our pick carries a 51.8% chance of winning. Based on our cappers in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be closer to 60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

Our Pick

Under 168.5 Points @ -108 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 Assists +110

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) can be backed to total Under 8.5 assists at +110. Taking everything into consideration, we can feel confident that she will fall short of the line.

Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 14.5

-112

Under 14.5

-115

Assists

Over 8.5

-143

Under 8.5

+110

Rebounds

Over 9.5

+102

Under 9.5

-132

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Satou Sabally Under 14.5 Points -130

Satou Sabally (Mercury) can be backed to total Under 14.5 points at -130. We’re happy to take this selection when it comes to her failing to cover the total on Player Points.

Latest Satou Sabally Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 14.5

-111

Under 14.5

-116

Rebounds

Over 5.5

-130

Under 5.5

+101

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Correct Score Prediction

Aces 78 - 87 Mercury

We’re going for the Mercury to achieve a 87-78 win and the good news is that there are massive odds for this outcome. A small stake can return a potentially large amount.

Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Latest Odds Suggest Mercury Win

Sportsbooks’ favorites Phoenix Mercury are regarded as likeliest victors for this WNBA game and the -200 about them triumphing means a 67% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. Las Vegas Aces are the underdogs at +160 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

4.5 is where the spread lies, with total points being 168.5 right now. A Total wager is always available and can often provide value selections. If you want to bet Under 168.5, there are odds of -108.

If you’re planning to place a women's hoops wager, visit the best basketball sportsbooks and check out the huge selection of available team props and game lines. Find the lines which are the most attractive.

Betting Lines & Odds

Moneyline

Aces

+160

Mercury

-200

Point Spread

Aces +4.5

-110

Mercury -4.5

-110

Total Points

Under 168.5

-108

Over 168.5

-112

A'ja Wilson Favorite to Score the Most Points

The favorite to hit the most buckets is A'ja Wilson. Odds of -102 can be found for her scoring Over 22.5 points and there is -127 for her to go Under.

Player Points

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 22.5

-102

Under 22.5

-127

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 16.5

-100

Under 16.5

-130

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 15.5

+102

Under 15.5

-132

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-112

Under 14.5

-115

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-111

Under 14.5

-116

Jewell Loyd (Aces)

Over 12.5

-100

Under 12.5

-130

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 9.5

-114

Under 9.5

-114

Player Assists

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-143

Under 8.5

+110

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 5.5

+117

Under 5.5

-152

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 4.5

-156

Under 4.5

+121

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 3.5

+128

Under 3.5

-167

Player Rebounds

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 11.5

+104

Under 11.5

-135

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 9.5

+102

Under 9.5

-132

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 5.5

-130

Under 5.5

+101

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 4.5

+117

Under 4.5

-152

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

-100

Under 3.5

-130

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 3.5

+104

Under 3.5

-135

Micro Betting

Micro betting provides a rollercoaster ride for basketball bettors. It can be great to enjoy the live lines, with the opportunity to wager on the Next Field Goal. Watch the live action before deciding which way to go.

Last 5 & H2H

Team Stats

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

WNBA Table Select Season 20252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	27	5	2783	2420	363	16-1	11-4	5W
2  Dream	21	11	2697	2497	200	10-4	11-7	6W
3  Liberty	21	12	2860	2688	172	13-4	8-8	1L
4  Mercury	19	12	2577	2465	112	11-5	8-7	1L
5  Aces	19	14	2708	2730	-22	11-5	8-9	5W
6  Fever	18	15	2790	2689	101	10-7	8-8	1L
7  Valkyries	17	15	2492	2474	18	10-5	7-10	3W
8  Storm	16	17	2697	2640	57	8-9	8-8	6L
9  Sparks	15	17	2760	2827	-67	6-10	9-7	1L
10  Mystics	14	18	2520	2584	-64	9-7	5-11	1L
11  Wings	9	24	2692	2854	-162	5-12	4-12	1W
12  Sky	8	24	2413	2749	-336	5-11	3-13	3L
13  Sun	6	26	2392	2764	-372	5-11	1-15	1W

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