Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 08 Oct 2025
WNBA Betting Preview: Aces vs Mercury
The Las Vegas Aces face off against the Phoenix Mercury in Game 3 of this WNBA Finals matchup at PHX Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 20:00 on Wednesday, October 8. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.
Aces to Give Mercury a Hard Time
Considering the +3.5 that is on offer for the Aces, our prediction is that the underdogs will cover the spread against the Mercury. They can stay in the game and odds of -104 is available.
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8 Triumphs for Aces in Previous 10 H2H Matchups
The Las Vegas Aces took a 2–0 series lead after beating the Phoenix Mercury 91–78 at home at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Sunday. The Aces have enjoyed five consecutive victories against the Mercury, earning eight wins from the past ten head-to-head matchups.
| WNBA | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2
Aces
|
30 | 14 | 3680 | 3552 | 128 | 17-5 | 13-9 | 16W |
4
Mercury
|
27 | 17 | 3643 | 3525 | 118 | 15-7 | 12-10 | 3L |
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks
Our Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury betting guide delivers expert insight, including a main match pick, scoreline advice, standout player props and bet builder recommendations. Dive into each section below for more.
Game Prediction
We are happy to get with Aces against the spread in this WNBA matchup. -104 is available that the underdogs are able to cover +3.5 and that looks very reasonable.
To deliver the best possible basketball predictions, we start by locking in the team news and taking time to review the latest form. There’s also no shortage of data to crunch from the most up-to-date WNBA stats available.
Key Aces vs Mercury stats:
Aces +3.5 Probability
If you go by the top basketball sportsbooks, our pick has a 51% chance of delivering a return. After careful examination, our team calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.
Want bigger odds when it comes to your wager? Never fear, you are able to head to the sportsbooks and move the line until you’re happy with the price.
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Best Bet
Aces +3.5 @ -104
Player Prop Picks
Chelsea Gray (Aces) can be wagered to register Under 6.5 assists at -114. We can feel confident that she might fall short on the Player Assists front as the total looks too high.
Latest Chelsea Gray Player Prop Odds
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A'ja Wilson (Aces) can be wagered to finish with Under 3.5 assists at -161. She might struggle to reach the Player Assists line this time around, with this pick looking really appealing.
Latest A'ja Wilson Player Prop Odds
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Same Game Parlay Picks
We’ve compiled a same game parlay that includes Aces +3.5 on the spread, combined with Over 163.5 and Chelsea Gray (Aces) to have Under 6.5 assists.
A same game parlay is a fantastic way of cheering on different selections within the same basketball game. You can predict a number of outcomes and get bigger odds than a single bet. The odds can combine to great effect.
Correct Score Prediction
85
-
83
Mercury
We’ll throw a dart when it comes to the Aces landing a 85-83 win. This correct score prediction is available at tasty odds and could be an entertaining wager to place.
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Odds
The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.
Books Think Mercury Likeliest to Win
Phoenix Mercury are regarded as having a 65% chance of winning this WNBA game according to the latest betting odds. The sportsbooks have priced them up at -185. The market suggests that Las Vegas Aces are least likely to win at +148.
3.5 is the spread and 163.5 is the total points line. A wager on the Totals allows basketball bettors to use the latest data to good effect. There’s an opportunity to bet Over 163.5 at -115.
Women's hoops fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the huge selection of team props and game lines which are available for every matchup on the coupon. Head to the top basketball sportsbooks and find the best value picks.
A'ja Wilson Favorite to Score the Most Baskets
A'ja Wilson is the favorite to score most points. She is priced at -119 to score Over 24.5 points. Alternatively, you can back Under at -109.
Last 5 & H2H
- WNBA: 05/10 2025 Mercury 78 Aces 91
- WNBA: 04/10 2025 Mercury 86 Aces 89
- WNBA: 22/08 2025 Mercury 61 Aces 83
- WNBA: 16/08 2025 Aces 86 Mercury 83
- WNBA: 30/06 2025 Aces 84 Mercury 81
- WNBA: 16/06 2025 Mercury 76 Aces 70
- WNBA: 01/09 2024 Aces 97 Mercury 79
- WNBA: 14/06 2024 Aces 103 Mercury 99
- WNBA: 22/05 2024 Mercury 98 Aces 88
- WNBA: 15/05 2024 Mercury 80 Aces 89
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Las Vegas Aces Stats
Phoenix Mercury Stats
- 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
- 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- +3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
- +3.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games on the road
- -3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
- -3.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 169.30 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 163.90 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 163.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
- Over 163.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 87.60 pts and allowed 81.70 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 85.70 pts and allowed 78.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 161.00 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 158.60 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 163.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
- Over 163.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 80.20 pts and allowed 80.80 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 81.30 pts and allowed 77.30 pts in the last 10 home games
WNBA Table Select Season
| Team | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
Lynx
|
34 | 10 | 3787 | 3373 | 414 | 20-2 | 14-8 | 1W |
|
2
Aces
|
30 | 14 | 3680 | 3552 | 128 | 17-5 | 13-9 | 16W |
3
Dream
|
30 | 14 | 3712 | 3378 | 334 | 16-6 | 14-8 | 6W |
|
4
Mercury
|
27 | 17 | 3643 | 3525 | 118 | 15-7 | 12-10 | 3L |
5
Liberty
|
27 | 17 | 3713 | 3534 | 179 | 17-5 | 10-12 | 3W |
6
Fever
|
24 | 20 | 3734 | 3586 | 148 | 13-9 | 11-11 | 3W |
7
Storm
|
23 | 21 | 3614 | 3524 | 90 | 10-12 | 13-9 | 1W |
8
Valkyries
|
23 | 21 | 3420 | 3359 | 61 | 14-8 | 9-13 | 3L |
9
Sparks
|
21 | 23 | 3769 | 3882 | -113 | 9-13 | 12-10 | 1L |
10
Mystics
|
16 | 28 | 3394 | 3589 | -195 | 10-12 | 6-16 | 10L |
11
Sun
|
11 | 33 | 3337 | 3782 | -445 | 7-15 | 4-18 | 2L |
12
Sky
|
10 | 34 | 3335 | 3777 | -442 | 6-16 | 4-18 | 4L |
13
Wings
|
10 | 34 | 3594 | 3871 | -277 | 6-16 | 4-18 | 1W |
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