Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 09 Jul 2025

Expect a Tight Affair

Considering the +5.5 that is available for the Mercury, our prediction is that they will cover the spread against the Lynx. The underdogs can stay in the game and -110 is on offer.

9 of Last 10 Matchups Have Been Lynx Wins

Minnesota Lynx won their previous game which was at home. It was a 80-75 triumph at Target Center against Chicago Sky.

Phoenix Mercury were winners last time out. It was a 102-72 home victory against Dallas Wings at Footprint Center.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Lynx had the edge in the most recent matchup between these teams. At Target Center, they recorded a 88-65 win over the Mercury. It’s been six victories on the bounce for the Lynx when playing the Mercury. On the head-to-head front, they have won 9 of the past 10.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	30	7	3209	2834	375	18-1	12-6	2W
4  Mercury	23	14	3077	2963	114	12-6	11-8	2W

View Full Standings

Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

We’re confident that Mercury can produce a strong performance in this WNBA showdown. Our pick is that they’ll cover the spread of +5.5 and you can currently get -110.

The expert basketball handicappers at Sportsgambler.com always keep close tabs on team news. We also use a form guide for our WNBA predictions along with checking out the stats that are going to help inform our final decision.

Key Lynx vs Mercury stats:

• The +5.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 4 consecutive games at home.
• The +5.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 9 of their last 10 games at home.
• The +5.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 15 of their last 20 games.
• The -5.5 line hasn’t been covered by Lynx in 3 consecutive games on the road.
• The -5.5 line hasn’t been covered by Lynx in 6 of their last 10 games on the road.

Mercury +5.5 Probability

According to the sportsbooks, our pick has a 52.4% chance of winning. However, our cappers research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. This bet can therefore be backed with confidence.

If you want to land bigger odds, you might be interested to know that you can move the betting line. There’s extra juice depending on how risky you want your wager to be.

Best Bet

Mercury +5.5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 Assists -100

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) can be wagered to register Over 8.5 assists at -100. We think it makes sense to stick with her when it comes to Overs and bettors can be confident with this Player Assists pick.

Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 14.5

-110

Under 14.5

-118

Assists

Over 8.5

-116

Under 8.5

-111

Rebounds

Over 8.5

-109

Under 8.5

-119

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Sami Whitcomb Over 12.5 Points -135

Sami Whitcomb (Mercury) is available at -135 to score Over 12.5 points. There’s an opportunity to wager on Player Points and the total looks attractive for this player.

Latest Sami Whitcomb Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 12.5

-114

Under 12.5

-114

Rebounds

Over 3.5

+117

Under 3.5

-152

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Correct Score Prediction

Lynx 86 - 84 Mercury

The Lynx are available at huge odds to register a 86-84 victory and they might have the edge. This should be a close contest and there won’t be much between the teams.

Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Books Have Lynx as Favorites

For this WNBA game, the sportsbooks’ Moneyline betting odds mean Minnesota Lynx are -278 favorites to win and that means a 74% chance of landing a victory. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +220 about Phoenix Mercury.

7 is the spread and 159.5 is the total points line. There are many ways to wager on basketball including the Totals. If you’re wanting to back Over 159.5, the odds are -112.

The betting sites offer a wide range of game lines and team props when it comes to most basketball contests. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Moneyline

Lynx

-278

Mercury

+220

Point Spread

Lynx -7

-108

Mercury +7

-112

Total Points

Under 159.5

-108

Over 159.5

-112

Napheesa Collier Favorite to Score the Most Baskets

The favorite to land the most baskets is Napheesa Collier. Odds of -122 can be found for her scoring Over 21.5 points and there is -106 for her to go Under.

Napheesa Collier (Lynx)

Over 21.5

-122

Under 21.5

-106

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-110

Under 14.5

-118

Kayla McBride (Lynx)

Over 14.5

+110

Under 14.5

-143

Sami Whitcomb (Mercury)

Over 12.5

-114

Under 12.5

-114

Courtney Williams (Lynx)

Over 12.5

-103

Under 12.5

-125

Monique Akoa Makani (Mercury)

Over 9.5

-120

Under 9.5

-108

Alanna Smith (Lynx)

Over 9.5

-111

Under 9.5

-116

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-116

Under 8.5

-111

Courtney Williams (Lynx)

Over 5.5

-111

Under 5.5

-116

Napheesa Collier (Lynx)

Over 3.5

+110

Under 3.5

-143

Kayla McBride (Lynx)

Over 3.5

+118

Under 3.5

-154

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-109

Under 8.5

-119

Napheesa Collier (Lynx)

Over 7.5

-143

Under 7.5

+110

Alanna Smith (Lynx)

Over 5.5

-102

Under 5.5

-127

Courtney Williams (Lynx)

Over 4.5

-132

Under 4.5

+102

Sami Whitcomb (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+117

Under 3.5

-152

Micro Betting

Micro betting provides a rollercoaster ride for basketball bettors. It can be great to enjoy the live lines, with the opportunity to wager on the Next Field Goal. Watch the live action before deciding which way to go.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Minnesota Lynx Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -5.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -5.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +5.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• +5.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 155.80 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 157.20 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 162.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 162.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 83.40 pts and allowed 72.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 80.10 pts and allowed 77.10 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 172.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 167.10 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 162.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 162.5 at Home: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 90.30 pts and allowed 82.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 86.70 pts and allowed 80.40 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 20252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	30	7	3209	2834	375	18-1	12-6	2W
2  Aces	26	14	3308	3263	45	14-5	12-9	12W
3  Dream	24	14	3154	2930	224	12-6	12-8	1L
4  Mercury	23	14	3077	2963	114	12-6	11-8	2W
5  Liberty	23	15	3253	3097	156	15-5	8-10	1W
6  Fever	20	18	3242	3137	105	11-9	9-9	1W
7  Valkyries	19	18	2898	2872	26	10-7	9-11	1W
8  Storm	20	19	3207	3128	79	8-10	12-9	1L
9  Sparks	17	19	3108	3190	-82	7-11	10-8	1L
10  Mystics	16	22	2991	3076	-85	10-10	6-12	4L
11  Sun	10	28	2906	3248	-342	6-12	4-16	1W
12  Sky	9	28	2809	3191	-382	5-15	4-13	2L
13  Wings	9	30	3191	3424	-233	5-16	4-14	6L