New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 19 Sep 2025
WNBA Betting Preview: Liberty vs Mercury
The New York Liberty face the Phoenix Mercury in this WNBA matchup at PHX Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 21:00 on Friday, September 19. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.
Mercury Could Prove Too Strong
We can’t resist going for the Mercury on the Moneyline, with our prediction made with confidence and there is -145 on offer that they get the better of the Liberty.
Backing Mercury for the win? Make sure you’ve got the BetMGM promo code and our comprehensive site review in your corner.
Mercury 86-60 to the Good in Previous H2H
When Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty met on Wednesday night, Mercury claimed a 86-60 win. Each franchise has landed five wins in the previous 10 games between these teams.
| WNBA | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4
Mercury
|
27 | 17 | 3643 | 3525 | 118 | 15-7 | 12-10 | 3L |
5
Liberty
|
27 | 17 | 3713 | 3534 | 179 | 17-5 | 10-12 | 3W |
New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks
Take in the full New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury betting outlook — from our expert match prediction and correct score pick to player prop insights and a bet builder tailored for value.
Game Prediction
There’s a generous -145 that Mercury are able to get the better of their opponents. This pick can be wagered on the Moneyline for this WNBA contest.
We’re always on top of team news and when combined with recent form, it helps us uncover the best value. Our WNBA handicappers also take a data-led approach, using key stats to back every pick.
Key Liberty vs Mercury stats:
Mercury Moneyline Probability
Based on the latest odds from the top betting apps, our pick has a 59.2% chance of winning. However, our analysts in-depth research has found that the actual probability is between 65-70%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this WNBA bet.
There’s a chance to back the Mercury at bigger odds against the spread. The sportbooks will create a series of lines and you can choose the one that makes the most appeal.
Looking for the best betting offers? Our expert guide includes a wide range of welcome bonuses and free bets just for you.
Best Bet
Mercury Moneyline @ -145
Player Prop Picks
Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) can be wagered to score Under 17.5 points at -130. We’re expecting her to fall short when it comes to Player Points as the line looks high enough.
Latest Sabrina Ionescu Player Prop Odds
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Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) can be wagered to have Under 9.5 rebounds at -114. We’re pretty confident that this Player Rebounds wager will end up falling short of the line.
Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds
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Same Game Parlay Picks
We’ve loaded up a same game parlay with the combined picks of Mercury on the moneyline, Under 156 and Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) to score Under 17.5 points.
A same game parlay allows basketball bettors to place a multiple wager on the same game. You can go through the available betting lines and choose the outcomes that you think will happen. The odds for each selection are then combined together.
Correct Score Prediction
75
-
78
Mercury
There might not be too much between these teams, with our correct score prediction being a 78-75 win for the Mercury. There are enormous odds available when it comes to this pick.
New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Odds
The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.
Mercury Likely to Win According to Latest Odds
The sportsbooks have Phoenix Mercury at -141 when it comes to the Moneyline betting, implying the favorites are 58% likely to win this game according to the latest odds. New York Liberty are the underdogs at +114 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.
The spread currently stands at 2.5 and the total points line is 155.5. A wager on the Totals allows basketball bettors to use the latest data to good effect. If you want to bet Under 155.5, there are odds of -108.
The best betting sites offer a huge selection of team props and game lines when it comes to most women's basketball matchups. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.
Sabrina Ionescu Favorite to Score the Most Baskets
The favorite to score most points is Sabrina Ionescu. You can get -100 that she scores Over 17.5 points or -130 that she goes Under.
Last 5 & H2H
- WNBA: 18/09 2025 Mercury 86 Liberty 60
- WNBA: 14/09 2025 Liberty 76 Mercury 69
- WNBA: 31/08 2025 Liberty 63 Mercury 80
- WNBA: 26/07 2025 Mercury 76 Liberty 89
- WNBA: 28/06 2025 Liberty 91 Mercury 106
- WNBA: 20/06 2025 Mercury 89 Liberty 81
- WNBA: 27/08 2024 Liberty 84 Mercury 70
- WNBA: 19/06 2024 Liberty 93 Mercury 99
- WNBA: 30/05 2024 Mercury 78 Liberty 81
- WNBA: 19/08 2023 Liberty 85 Mercury 63
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
New York Liberty Stats
Phoenix Mercury Stats
- 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
- 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- +2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
- +2.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road
- -2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
- -2.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 148.80 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 158.20 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 156: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
- Over 156 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 73.90 pts and allowed 74.90 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 78.40 pts and allowed 79.80 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 159.50 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 155.00 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 156: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
- Over 156 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 81.30 pts and allowed 78.20 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 80.70 pts and allowed 74.30 pts in the last 10 home games
WNBA Table Select Season
| Team | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
Lynx
|
34 | 10 | 3787 | 3373 | 414 | 20-2 | 14-8 | 1W |
2
Aces
|
30 | 14 | 3680 | 3552 | 128 | 17-5 | 13-9 | 16W |
3
Dream
|
30 | 14 | 3712 | 3378 | 334 | 16-6 | 14-8 | 6W |
|
4
Mercury
|
27 | 17 | 3643 | 3525 | 118 | 15-7 | 12-10 | 3L |
|
5
Liberty
|
27 | 17 | 3713 | 3534 | 179 | 17-5 | 10-12 | 3W |
6
Fever
|
24 | 20 | 3734 | 3586 | 148 | 13-9 | 11-11 | 3W |
7
Storm
|
23 | 21 | 3614 | 3524 | 90 | 10-12 | 13-9 | 1W |
8
Valkyries
|
23 | 21 | 3420 | 3359 | 61 | 14-8 | 9-13 | 3L |
9
Sparks
|
21 | 23 | 3769 | 3882 | -113 | 9-13 | 12-10 | 1L |
10
Mystics
|
16 | 28 | 3394 | 3589 | -195 | 10-12 | 6-16 | 10L |
11
Sun
|
11 | 33 | 3337 | 3782 | -445 | 7-15 | 4-18 | 2L |
12
Sky
|
10 | 34 | 3335 | 3777 | -442 | 6-16 | 4-18 | 4L |
13
Wings
|
10 | 34 | 3594 | 3871 | -277 | 6-16 | 4-18 | 1W |
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