Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Picks & Odds | 15 May 2025

Back Thunder to Get the Job Done

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14, 32-8 Away) face No. 4 Denver Nuggets (50-32, 26-15 at Home) in game 6 of this NBA Playoffs Western Conference Semifinal matchup at Ball Arena. The Thunder lead the series 3-2.

The Thunder should be taken against the spread at -5 with our prediction being for them to achieve a comfortable margin of victory over the Nuggets. Back the favorites at the -110 that's available.

112-105 Win for Thunder in Last H2H Battle

Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets clashed two nights ago, with the Thunder winning 112-105 at Paycom Center.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way for the Thunder with 31 points, while Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein scored 18 and 15. Nikola Jokic racked up 44 points and 15 rebounds for the Nuggets, with Jamal Murray recording 28 points and Aaron Gordon 13.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Thunder have triumphed in six of the previous 10 clashes between these teams.

NBA Reg. Season	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Nuggets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Thunder	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

View Full Standings

8 wins and 2 losses in the past 10 games. The Thunder are averaging 117.1 points, 47.6 rebounds, 24.5 assists, 9.8 steals and 6.4 blocks while shooting 44.5% from the field and 79.7% from the free-throw line. The opposition average 103.4 points and 47.2 rebounds per contest.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 25.2 points and 6.0 assists, while Chet Holmgren averages 8.5 rebounds and Luguentz Dort 1.8 (28.6%) 3-pointers made.

The Nuggets have won 5 and lost 5 of their previous 10 contests. Averaging 107.2 points, 45.6 rebounds, 22.3 assists, 7.3 steals and 4.9 blocks per game while shooting 44.8% from the field and 76.2% from the free-throw line. Their opponents average 111.9 points and 43.9 rebounds.

Nikola Jokic is averaging 26.3 points, 13.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists, while Jamal Murray has an average of 2.4 (35.8%) 3-pointers made.

Confirmed Starting Lineups

Oklahoma City Thunder lineup: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein.

Denver Nuggets lineup: Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Picks

We’re bullish about Thunder on the spread at -5. They should be able to win this NBA matchup by a comfortable margin and you can get -110.

We always have a keen eye on team news, while our expert NBA handicappers have their finger on the pulse by knowing the latest form. You will also find a compendium of stats which provide some valuable pointers ahead of the action.

Key Thunder vs Nuggets stats:

• The -5 line has been covered by Thunder in 15 of their last 20 games.
• The -5 line has been covered by Thunder in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The -5 line has been covered by Thunder in 2 consecutive games.
• The -5 line has been covered by Thunder in 2 consecutive games against Nuggets.

Thunder -5 Probability

According to the sportsbooks, there’s a 52.4% likelihood of our pick landing a return. Based on our in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be 55-60%. This is why we can recommend this wager.

It’s good to explore all avenues and you might prefer bigger odds about the selection you want to make. Go ahead and move the line until you’re happy with the price.

Best Bet

Thunder -5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 28.5 Points -108

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) has recorded an average of 20.4 points in the past 5 home games. It’s anticipated that he might once again fall short of the mark and this Player Points wager is available at -108.

Latest Nikola Jokic Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 28.5

-125

Under 28.5

-108

Assists

Over 8.5

-104

Under 8.5

-128

Rebounds

Over 13.5

-132

Under 13.5

-100

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Jamal Murray Over 3.5 Rebounds -128

Jamal Murray (Nuggets) has covered the 3.5 rebounds total in 9 of the past 10 games. The stats suggest that he can oblige with our Overs bet and we’re more than happy to take the -128 available.

Latest Jamal Murray Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 19.5

-122

Under 19.5

-109

Assists

Over 5.5

+105

Under 5.5

-139

Rebounds

Over 3.5

-128

Under 3.5

-104

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Correct Score Prediction

Thunder 110 - 103 Nuggets

The Thunder might be able to claim a win and we’re siding with a 110-103 scoreline in their favor. A small stake can provide a big return and there are tasty odds available.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Books Make Thunder Moneyline Favorites

The Oklahoma City Thunder odds have been priced up by the sportsbooks and they are -196 betting favorites to land victory in this NBA game which means a 66% chance of winning. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, Denver Nuggets are trading at +166.

The spread is calculated to be 5, while total points comes in at 217. A Total wager is always available and can often provide value selections. Those that want to back Under 217 can find odds of -112 available.

Whether you are betting pre-game or in-game, you can feast on hundreds of game lines and team props. The selections are practically endless and it’s great to have so many options.

Moneyline

Thunder

-196

Nuggets

+166

Point Spread

Thunder -5

-108

Nuggets +5

-112

Total Points

Under 217

-112

Over 217

-108

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Favorite to Score the Most Points

In terms of scoring most points, favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is available at -118 to rack up Over 29.5 points. If you want to go Under, then -114 is available.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 29.5

-118

Under 29.5

-114

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 28.5

-125

Under 28.5

-108

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 20.5

-115

Under 20.5

-115

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 19.5

-122

Under 19.5

-109

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 16.5

-115

Under 16.5

-115

Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Over 14.5

-114

Under 14.5

-118

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 12.5

-108

Under 12.5

-123

Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)

Over 11.5

-108

Under 11.5

-123

Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets)

Over 10.5

-122

Under 10.5

-109

Russell Westbrook (Nuggets)

Over 10.5

-103

Under 10.5

-130

Luguentz Dort (Thunder)

Over 8.5

-123

Under 8.5

-108

Alex Caruso (Thunder)

Over 8.5

-104

Under 8.5

-128

Aaron Wiggins (Thunder)

Over 5.5

-127

Under 5.5

-105

Cason Wallace (Thunder)

Over 5.5

+104

Under 5.5

-135

Peyton Watson (Nuggets)

Over 4.5

-100

Under 4.5

-133

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 8.5

-104

Under 8.5

-128

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 7.5

+102

Under 7.5

-135

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 5.5

+105

Under 5.5

-139

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 4.5

-139

Under 4.5

+105

Russell Westbrook (Nuggets)

Over 3.5

-118

Under 3.5

-114

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 2.5

-175

Under 2.5

+130

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 2.5

-108

Under 2.5

-123

Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)

Over 2.5

-175

Under 2.5

+128

Alex Caruso (Thunder)

Over 2.5

+108

Under 2.5

-143

Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Over 1.5

-109

Under 1.5

-119

Cason Wallace (Thunder)

Over 1.5

-125

Under 1.5

-103

Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets)

Over 0.5

-152

Under 0.5

+117

Luguentz Dort (Thunder)

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

+152

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 13.5

-132

Under 13.5

-100

Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Over 9.5

+105

Under 9.5

-139

Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)

Over 9.5

-106

Under 9.5

-125

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 6.5

-120

Under 6.5

-109

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 5.5

-125

Under 5.5

-106

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 5.5

-133

Under 5.5

+102

Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets)

Over 5.5

-123

Under 5.5

-108

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 4.5

-123

Under 4.5

-108

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 3.5

-128

Under 3.5

-104

Russell Westbrook (Nuggets)

Over 3.5

+107

Under 3.5

-143

Luguentz Dort (Thunder)

Over 2.5

-175

Under 2.5

+128

Alex Caruso (Thunder)

Over 2.5

-152

Under 2.5

+114

Aaron Wiggins (Thunder)

Over 2.5

+110

Under 2.5

-143

Cason Wallace (Thunder)

Over 2.5

+126

Under 2.5

-164

Micro Betting

For those looking to enjoy a thrilling in-game wager, basketball micro betting could be up your street. You are now able to wager on the Next Field Goal, with the options being for a two-pointer or a three-pointer.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Oklahoma City Thunder Stats

Denver Nuggets Stats

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• -5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 220.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 222.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 216.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 216.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 117.10 pts and allowed 103.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 114.70 pts and allowed 107.70 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 219.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 226.10 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 216.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 216.5 at Home: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 107.20 pts and allowed 111.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 114.70 pts and allowed 111.40 pts in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 29.70 (54%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 12.30 (31%)
• Free Throws Made: 20.80 (79.69%)
• Rebounds: Total 47.6, Offensive 13.10, Defensive 34.50
• Assists: 24.50
• Blocks: 6.40
• Steals: 9.80
• Turnovers : 10.90
• Personal Fouls: 21.40

Last 10 Games on the Road

• 2-Pointers Made: 28.80 (54%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 12.80 (34%)
• Free Throws Made: 18.70 (78.57%)
• Rebounds: Total 45.5, Offensive 11.00, Defensive 34.50
• Assists: 25.30
• Blocks: 4.90
• Steals: 9.30
• Turnovers : 11.30
• Personal Fouls: 21.00

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 26.80 (51%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 12.10 (35%)
• Free Throws Made: 17.30 (76.21%)
• Rebounds: Total 45.6, Offensive 11.90, Defensive 33.70
• Assists: 22.30
• Blocks: 4.90
• Steals: 7.30
• Turnovers : 14.10
• Personal Fouls: 21.20

Last 10 Home Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 30.00 (55%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 11.60 (34%)
• Free Throws Made: 19.90 (73.43%)
• Rebounds: Total 47.9, Offensive 10.50, Defensive 37.40
• Assists: 26.40
• Blocks: 4.30
• Steals: 8.00
• Turnovers : 13.20
• Personal Fouls: 18.80

Team News

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets Confirmed Lineup

0 Christian Braun

1 Michael Porter Jr.

15 Nikola Jokic

27 Jamal Murray

32 Aaron Gordon

Oklahoma City Thunder Confirmed Lineup

2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

5 Luguentz Dort

7 Chet Holmgren

8 Jalen Williams

55 Isaiah Hartenstein

NBA Regular Season Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Division Conference League

East Atlantic	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Celtics	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Nets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Knicks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
76ers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Raptors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

East Central	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Bulls	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pistons	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pacers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Bucks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

East Southeast	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Hawks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Hornets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Heat	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Magic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Wizards	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

West Northwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Nuggets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Timberwolves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Thunder	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Trail Blazers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

West Pacific	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Warriors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Clippers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Lakers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Suns	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Kings	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

West Southwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Mavericks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Rockets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Grizzlies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pelicans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Spurs	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

Eastern Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Celtics	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Nets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Knicks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
76ers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Raptors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Bulls	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pistons	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pacers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Bucks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Hawks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Hornets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Heat	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Magic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Wizards	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

Western Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Nuggets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Timberwolves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Thunder	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Trail Blazers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Warriors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Clippers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Lakers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Suns	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Kings	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Mavericks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Rockets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Grizzlies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pelicans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Spurs	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

NBA	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Hawks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Celtics	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Nets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Hornets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Bulls	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Mavericks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Nuggets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pistons	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Warriors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Rockets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pacers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Clippers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Lakers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Grizzlies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Heat	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Bucks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Timberwolves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Pelicans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Knicks	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Thunder	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Magic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
76ers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Suns	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Trail Blazers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Kings	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Spurs	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Raptors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-
Wizards	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	-	-

• W = Wins
• L = Losses
• PCT = Winning Percentage
• PPG = Points Per Game
• OPP PPG = Opponent Points Per Game
• DIFF = Average Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Road = Away Record
• Div = Division Record
• Conf = Conference Record
• Last 10 = Record last 10 games
• Strk = Current Streak