Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Prediction, Picks & Odds | NBA Saturday

NBA Betting Preview: Thunder vs Heat

The Oklahoma City Thunder take the floor against the Miami Heat in this NBA clash. Our betting preview features expert NBA predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, player stats, team news and confirmed starting lineups.

The line makes plenty of appeal considering it’s set at +8.5 and our prediction is that the Heat will cover this against the Thunder. There is -110 available for this outcome.

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Oklahoma City Thunder have won five on the spin, triumphing 111-91 in their previous game. This was on the road against Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander poured in 20 points, with Chet Holmgren contributing 18 and Ajay Mitchell adding 17.

Miami Heat were defeated last time out. Kaseya Center saw them beaten at home to Boston Celtics by a 119-114 scoreline. Offensively, Norman Powell led the charge with 26, while Bam Adebayo contributed 22 and Tyler Herro 22.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The scoreline was 124-112 in favor of the Thunder when they last played the Heat, with the matchup taking place at Paycom Center. It’s been five victories on the bounce for the Thunder when playing the Heat. On the head-to-head front, they have won 5 of the past 10.

NBA	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	35	7	0.833	121.1	107.7	13.4	20-3	15-4	7-2	28-6	8-2	5W
Heat	21	20	0.512	119.4	117.8	1.6	14-7	7-13	3-3	12-12	5-5	1L

View Full Standings

The Thunder have 8 wins and 2 losses in the past 10 games. They are averaging 119.7 points, 42.3 rebounds, 25.2 assists, 10.1 steals and 7.8 blocks while shooting 47.8% from the field and 82.3% from the free-throw line. The opposition have an average of 109.2 points and 48.8 rebounds per matchup.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27.4 points, Chet Holmgren 9.1 rebounds and Jalen Williams 6.2 assists, while Luguentz Dort averages 1.7 (33.3%) 3-pointers made.

The Heat have won 5 and lost 5 of their last 10 contests. Averaging 119.3 points, 44.3 rebounds, 28.8 assists, 10.0 steals and 4.1 blocks per game while shooting 46.7% from the field and 80.6% from the free-throw line. Their opponents have averaged 119.1 points and 46.5 rebounds.

Norman Powell is averaging 21.9 points and 3.1 (44.9%) 3-pointers made. Bam Adebayo has an average of 8.6 rebounds and Davion Mitchell 6.3 assists.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Prediction & Picks

Be fully equipped for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat with our betting guide, offering a key match prediction, a correct score recommendation, top player prop picks and a bet builder tailored for value.

Game Prediction

Our best wager is for Heat to cover the spread. +8.5 at -110 look more than generous and we’re happy to back the underdogs in this NBA contest.

The handicappers at Sportsgambler.com always keep close tabs on team news as it develops. We also rely on recent form and key NBA stats to help shape our basketball predictions and guide the final call.

Key Thunder vs Heat stats:

• The +8.5 line has been covered by Heat in 4 of their last 5 games at home.
• The +8.5 line has been covered by Heat in 15 of their last 20 games at home.
• The +8.5 line has been covered by Heat in 3 consecutive games at home.
• The -8.5 line hasn’t been covered by Thunder in 3 of their last 5 games on the road.
• The +8.5 line has been covered by Heat in 8 of their last 10 games against Thunder.

Heat +8.5 Probability

According to the latest odds, our pick has a 52.4% chance of winning. Our analysts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be closer to 60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.

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Our Game Prediction

Heat +8.5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Norman Powell Over 20.5 Points -116

Norman Powell (Heat) has an average of 26.6 points in the past 5 home games. We will therefore place a bet that he is able to cover the line for this Player Points wager which is available at odds of -116.

Latest Norman Powell Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 20.5

-116

Under 20.5

-110

Assists

Over 2.5

-161

Under 2.5

+122

Rebounds

Over 3.5

-112

Under 3.5

-118

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Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 Assists +112

Bam Adebayo (Heat) has covered the 3.5 assists total in 5 straight games at home. We can therefore place a Player Assists bet at +112 with confidence, with our pick expected to cover the line.

Latest Bam Adebayo Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 15.5

-123

Under 15.5

-104

Assists

Over 3.5

+112

Under 3.5

-147

Rebounds

Over 10.5

-111

Under 10.5

-118

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Correct Score Prediction

Thunder 118 - 113 Heat

Should you want a bet that can land a monster return, then look no further than the correct score lines. Back the Thunder to win 118-113 and leverage a huge payout if this happens.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Sportsbooks’ favorites Oklahoma City Thunder are regarded as likeliest victors for this NBA game and the -370 about them triumphing means a 79% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. The market suggests that Miami Heat are least likely to win at +295.

There is a spread of 9 and total points has a line of 234.5. A Total wager is always available and can often provide value selections. If you’re going for Under 234.5, this outcome can be backed at -110.

If you’re planning to place a basketball bet, visit the best betting sites and check out the hundreds of available team props and game lines. Find the lines which are the most attractive.

Moneyline

Thunder

-370

Heat

+295

Point Spread

Thunder -9

-114

Heat +9

-106

Total Points

Under 234.5

-110

Over 234.5

-110

The favorite to score most points is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. You can get -118 that he scores Over 30.5 points or -109 that he goes Under.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 30.5

-118

Under 30.5

-109

Norman Powell (Heat)

Over 20.5

-116

Under 20.5

-110

Tyler Herro (Heat)

Over 18.5

-120

Under 18.5

-105

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 18.5

-112

Under 18.5

-114

Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Over 18.5

-105

Under 18.5

-120

Bam Adebayo (Heat)

Over 15.5

-123

Under 15.5

-104

Andrew Wiggins (Heat)

Over 13.5

-125

Under 13.5

-102

Ajay Mitchell (Thunder)

Over 13.5

-101

Under 13.5

-127

Pelle Larsson (Heat)

Over 9.5

-122

Under 9.5

-104

Luguentz Dort (Thunder)

Over 7.5

-116

Under 7.5

-110

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 6.5

+111

Under 6.5

-147

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 5.5

+106

Under 5.5

-139

Tyler Herro (Heat)

Over 4.5

-110

Under 4.5

-119

Bam Adebayo (Heat)

Over 3.5

+112

Under 3.5

-147

Ajay Mitchell (Thunder)

Over 3.5

+119

Under 3.5

-156

Pelle Larsson (Heat)

Over 3.5

-127

Under 3.5

-104

Norman Powell (Heat)

Over 2.5

-161

Under 2.5

+122

Andrew Wiggins (Heat)

Over 2.5

-149

Under 2.5

+114

Bam Adebayo (Heat)

Over 10.5

-111

Under 10.5

-118

Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Over 9.5

-135

Under 9.5

+104

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 5.5

+105

Under 5.5

-139

Andrew Wiggins (Heat)

Over 5.5

-128

Under 5.5

-103

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 4.5

-120

Under 4.5

-109

Tyler Herro (Heat)

Over 4.5

-110

Under 4.5

-120

Norman Powell (Heat)

Over 3.5

-112

Under 3.5

-118

Ajay Mitchell (Thunder)

Over 3.5

-104

Under 3.5

-127

Pelle Larsson (Heat)

Over 3.5

-125

Under 3.5

-105

Luguentz Dort (Thunder)

Over 3.5

-118

Under 3.5

-111

The Heat have five wins and five losses in the last 10 games at home, averaging 120.80 points on offense and surrendering 117.80 on defense.

The Thunder have seven wins and three losses in the last 10 road games, averaging 120.30 points scored and 109.10 points allowed.

The Thunder defeated the Heat 104-97 the last time they played at Kaseya Center. In the past 7 head-to-head matchups at Kaseya Center, the Thunder have four wins while the Heat have three.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O234.5	U234.5
Miami Heat Home Stats		5-5	238.60	120.80	117.80	6	4
Oklahoma City Thunder Away Stats		7-3	229.40	120.30	109.10	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O234.5 = Games Over 234.5 Points
• U234.5 = Games Under 234.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Oklahoma City Thunder Stats

Miami Heat Stats

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -8.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -8.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +8.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +8.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 228.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 229.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 234.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 234.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 119.70 pts and allowed 109.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 120.30 pts and allowed 109.10 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 238.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 238.60 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 234.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 234.5 at Home: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 119.30 pts and allowed 119.10 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 120.80 pts and allowed 117.80 pts in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 31.70 (59%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 11.80 (32%)
• Free Throws Made: 20.90 (82.28%)
• Rebounds: Total 42.3, Offensive 8.70, Defensive 33.60
• Assists: 25.20
• Blocks: 7.80
• Steals: 10.10
• Turnovers : 10.80
• Personal Fouls: 19.10

Last 10 Games on the Road

• 2-Pointers Made: 30.00 (58%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 14.30 (40%)
• Free Throws Made: 17.40 (80.56%)
• Rebounds: Total 40.8, Offensive 7.30, Defensive 33.50
• Assists: 26.10
• Blocks: 6.10
• Steals: 8.10
• Turnovers : 11.60
• Personal Fouls: 20.40

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 30.00 (53%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 14.10 (38%)
• Free Throws Made: 17.00 (80.57%)
• Rebounds: Total 44.3, Offensive 11.80, Defensive 32.50
• Assists: 28.80
• Blocks: 4.10
• Steals: 10.00
• Turnovers : 15.10
• Personal Fouls: 19.60

Last 10 Home Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 30.10 (55%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 14.40 (38%)
• Free Throws Made: 17.40 (79.09%)
• Rebounds: Total 43.2, Offensive 11.90, Defensive 31.30
• Assists: 27.80
• Blocks: 4.40
• Steals: 10.20
• Turnovers : 13.30
• Personal Fouls: 18.90

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of tip-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

NBA Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Division Conference League

East Atlantic	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Celtics	25	15	0.625	116.7	110.2	6.5	12-7	13-8	6-4	18-9	6-4	1W
Knicks	25	16	0.61	118.9	115.1	3.8	16-4	9-12	5-3	18-11	3-7	2L
Raptors	25	18	0.581	114	112.3	1.7	13-10	12-8	4-8	22-12	6-4	1L
76ers	22	18	0.55	116.8	115.7	1.1	10-11	12-7	8-4	17-15	6-4	2L
Nets	12	27	0.308	108.9	113.8	-4.9	6-15	6-12	3-7	9-16	2-8	1W

East Central	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Pistons	29	10	0.744	117.6	111.1	6.5	16-4	13-6	7-3	20-6	6-4	1W
Cavaliers	24	19	0.558	120	117.4	2.6	14-10	10-9	7-3	16-13	7-3	2W
Bulls	19	22	0.463	117.3	120.7	-3.4	12-9	7-13	3-7	13-15	4-6	1L
Bucks	17	24	0.415	112.4	115.8	-3.4	9-10	8-14	5-4	13-14	5-5	3L
Pacers	10	32	0.238	111	118.3	-7.3	8-16	2-16	2-7	7-20	4-6	1W

East Southeast	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Magic	23	18	0.561	116.3	114.9	1.4	14-7	9-11	5-4	15-14	6-4	2W
Heat	21	20	0.512	119.4	117.8	1.6	14-7	7-13	3-3	12-12	5-5	1L
Hawks	20	23	0.465	117.9	118.9	-1	7-11	13-12	4-3	10-15	5-5	2L
Hornets	15	26	0.366	116.6	116.7	-0.1	7-12	8-14	4-4	11-18	4-6	1W
Wizards	10	30	0.25	112.6	124	-11.4	6-13	4-17	2-4	7-18	3-7	5L

West Northwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	35	7	0.833	121.1	107.7	13.4	20-3	15-4	7-2	28-6	8-2	5W
Nuggets	28	13	0.683	122.6	117.2	5.4	11-6	17-7	4-1	18-7	6-4	3W
Timberwolves	27	15	0.643	120	114.5	5.5	15-6	12-9	4-4	14-11	7-3	1L
Trail Blazers	20	22	0.476	115.9	118.4	-2.5	11-10	9-12	4-4	16-14	7-3	1W
Jazz	14	27	0.341	119.3	127.4	-8.1	9-12	5-15	0-8	8-19	2-8	2L

West Pacific	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Lakers	24	15	0.615	116.5	116.9	-0.4	11-8	13-7	4-5	18-10	5-5	1L
Suns	24	17	0.585	114.6	112	2.6	14-5	10-12	8-4	20-13	6-4	2L
Warriors	23	19	0.548	115.8	113.2	2.6	15-6	8-13	5-3	15-12	7-3	2W
Clippers	18	23	0.439	112.5	113.4	-0.9	11-9	7-14	4-4	10-14	8-2	5W
Kings	12	30	0.286	110.6	120.6	-10	9-13	3-17	2-7	8-24	4-6	4W

West Southwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Spurs	28	13	0.683	117.6	112.5	5.1	14-5	14-8	7-1	15-11	5-5	1W
Rockets	24	15	0.615	117.1	110.7	6.4	13-3	11-12	2-4	13-14	5-5	1W
Grizzlies	17	23	0.425	114.8	116.2	-1.4	9-11	8-12	5-3	14-13	3-7	1L
Mavericks	16	26	0.381	113.6	117	-3.4	12-11	4-15	3-6	9-18	4-6	1W
Pelicans	10	34	0.227	115	122.3	-7.3	7-18	3-16	3-6	4-24	2-8	1L

Eastern Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Pistons	29	10	0.744	117.6	111.1	6.5	16-4	13-6	7-3	20-6	6-4	1W
Celtics	25	15	0.625	116.7	110.2	6.5	12-7	13-8	6-4	18-9	6-4	1W
Knicks	25	16	0.61	118.9	115.1	3.8	16-4	9-12	5-3	18-11	3-7	2L
Raptors	25	18	0.581	114	112.3	1.7	13-10	12-8	4-8	22-12	6-4	1L
Magic	23	18	0.561	116.3	114.9	1.4	14-7	9-11	5-4	15-14	6-4	2W
Cavaliers	24	19	0.558	120	117.4	2.6	14-10	10-9	7-3	16-13	7-3	2W
76ers	22	18	0.55	116.8	115.7	1.1	10-11	12-7	8-4	17-15	6-4	2L
Heat	21	20	0.512	119.4	117.8	1.6	14-7	7-13	3-3	12-12	5-5	1L
Hawks	20	23	0.465	117.9	118.9	-1	7-11	13-12	4-3	10-15	5-5	2L
Bulls	19	22	0.463	117.3	120.7	-3.4	12-9	7-13	3-7	13-15	4-6	1L
Bucks	17	24	0.415	112.4	115.8	-3.4	9-10	8-14	5-4	13-14	5-5	3L
Hornets	15	26	0.366	116.6	116.7	-0.1	7-12	8-14	4-4	11-18	4-6	1W
Nets	12	27	0.308	108.9	113.8	-4.9	6-15	6-12	3-7	9-16	2-8	1W
Wizards	10	30	0.25	112.6	124	-11.4	6-13	4-17	2-4	7-18	3-7	5L
Pacers	10	32	0.238	111	118.3	-7.3	8-16	2-16	2-7	7-20	4-6	1W

Western Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	35	7	0.833	121.1	107.7	13.4	20-3	15-4	7-2	28-6	8-2	5W
Spurs	28	13	0.683	117.6	112.5	5.1	14-5	14-8	7-1	15-11	5-5	1W
Nuggets	28	13	0.683	122.6	117.2	5.4	11-6	17-7	4-1	18-7	6-4	3W
Timberwolves	27	15	0.643	120	114.5	5.5	15-6	12-9	4-4	14-11	7-3	1L
Rockets	24	15	0.615	117.1	110.7	6.4	13-3	11-12	2-4	13-14	5-5	1W
Lakers	24	15	0.615	116.5	116.9	-0.4	11-8	13-7	4-5	18-10	5-5	1L
Suns	24	17	0.585	114.6	112	2.6	14-5	10-12	8-4	20-13	6-4	2L
Warriors	23	19	0.548	115.8	113.2	2.6	15-6	8-13	5-3	15-12	7-3	2W
Trail Blazers	20	22	0.476	115.9	118.4	-2.5	11-10	9-12	4-4	16-14	7-3	1W
Clippers	18	23	0.439	112.5	113.4	-0.9	11-9	7-14	4-4	10-14	8-2	5W
Grizzlies	17	23	0.425	114.8	116.2	-1.4	9-11	8-12	5-3	14-13	3-7	1L
Mavericks	16	26	0.381	113.6	117	-3.4	12-11	4-15	3-6	9-18	4-6	1W
Jazz	14	27	0.341	119.3	127.4	-8.1	9-12	5-15	0-8	8-19	2-8	2L
Kings	12	30	0.286	110.6	120.6	-10	9-13	3-17	2-7	8-24	4-6	4W
Pelicans	10	34	0.227	115	122.3	-7.3	7-18	3-16	3-6	4-24	2-8	1L

NBA	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	35	7	0.833	121.1	107.7	13.4	20-3	15-4	7-2	28-6	8-2	5W
Pistons	29	10	0.744	117.6	111.1	6.5	16-4	13-6	7-3	20-6	6-4	1W
Nuggets	28	13	0.683	122.6	117.2	5.4	11-6	17-7	4-1	18-7	6-4	3W
Spurs	28	13	0.683	117.6	112.5	5.1	14-5	14-8	7-1	15-11	5-5	1W
Timberwolves	27	15	0.643	120	114.5	5.5	15-6	12-9	4-4	14-11	7-3	1L
Celtics	25	15	0.625	116.7	110.2	6.5	12-7	13-8	6-4	18-9	6-4	1W
Rockets	24	15	0.615	117.1	110.7	6.4	13-3	11-12	2-4	13-14	5-5	1W
Lakers	24	15	0.615	116.5	116.9	-0.4	11-8	13-7	4-5	18-10	5-5	1L
Knicks	25	16	0.61	118.9	115.1	3.8	16-4	9-12	5-3	18-11	3-7	2L
Suns	24	17	0.585	114.6	112	2.6	14-5	10-12	8-4	20-13	6-4	2L
Raptors	25	18	0.581	114	112.3	1.7	13-10	12-8	4-8	22-12	6-4	1L
Magic	23	18	0.561	116.3	114.9	1.4	14-7	9-11	5-4	15-14	6-4	2W
Cavaliers	24	19	0.558	120	117.4	2.6	14-10	10-9	7-3	16-13	7-3	2W
76ers	22	18	0.55	116.8	115.7	1.1	10-11	12-7	8-4	17-15	6-4	2L
Warriors	23	19	0.548	115.8	113.2	2.6	15-6	8-13	5-3	15-12	7-3	2W
Heat	21	20	0.512	119.4	117.8	1.6	14-7	7-13	3-3	12-12	5-5	1L
Trail Blazers	20	22	0.476	115.9	118.4	-2.5	11-10	9-12	4-4	16-14	7-3	1W
Hawks	20	23	0.465	117.9	118.9	-1	7-11	13-12	4-3	10-15	5-5	2L
Bulls	19	22	0.463	117.3	120.7	-3.4	12-9	7-13	3-7	13-15	4-6	1L
Clippers	18	23	0.439	112.5	113.4	-0.9	11-9	7-14	4-4	10-14	8-2	5W
Grizzlies	17	23	0.425	114.8	116.2	-1.4	9-11	8-12	5-3	14-13	3-7	1L
Bucks	17	24	0.415	112.4	115.8	-3.4	9-10	8-14	5-4	13-14	5-5	3L
Mavericks	16	26	0.381	113.6	117	-3.4	12-11	4-15	3-6	9-18	4-6	1W
Hornets	15	26	0.366	116.6	116.7	-0.1	7-12	8-14	4-4	11-18	4-6	1W
Jazz	14	27	0.341	119.3	127.4	-8.1	9-12	5-15	0-8	8-19	2-8	2L
Nets	12	27	0.308	108.9	113.8	-4.9	6-15	6-12	3-7	9-16	2-8	1W
Kings	12	30	0.286	110.6	120.6	-10	9-13	3-17	2-7	8-24	4-6	4W
Wizards	10	30	0.25	112.6	124	-11.4	6-13	4-17	2-4	7-18	3-7	5L
Pacers	10	32	0.238	111	118.3	-7.3	8-16	2-16	2-7	7-20	4-6	1W
Pelicans	10	34	0.227	115	122.3	-7.3	7-18	3-16	3-6	4-24	2-8	1L

• W = Wins
• L = Losses
• PCT = Winning Percentage
• PPG = Points Per Game
• OPP PPG = Opponent Points Per Game
• DIFF = Average Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Road = Away Record
• Div = Division Record
• Conf = Conference Record
• Last 10 = Record last 10 games
• Strk = Current Streak

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