Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics Prediction, Picks & Odds | 04 Sep 2025

WNBA Betting Preview: Mercury vs Mystics

The Mercury meet the Mystics in this WNBA matchup at Entertainment and Sports Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 19:30 on Thursday, September 4. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.

We’re Going Over With Our Total Bet

We’ve got a strong opinion when it comes to the totals when the Mercury play the Mystics. Our prediction is that there will be Over 158.5 points and that is on offer at -108.

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88-72 Win for Mercury in Pair’s Last Encounter

Phoenix Mercury won their previous game, beating Indiana Fever at home. It was a 85-79 win at PHX Arena.

Washington Mystics were beaten last game and this was on the road at Crypto.com Arena. Los Angeles Sparks claimed a 81-78 win.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Mercury have won the last two meetings against the Mystics. They triumphed 68-62 at PHX Arena and then 88-72 at Entertainment and Sports Arena. We’ve seen six Mercury wins in the past 10 meetings between the teams.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
4  Mercury	26	14	3325	3184	141	15-6	11-8	5W
10  Mystics	16	25	3194	3345	-151	10-10	6-15	7L

View Full Standings

Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics Prediction & Picks

Approach Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics fully prepared with our expert match prediction, likely score outcome, standout player prop picks and a hand-picked bet builder.

Game Prediction

We’ll take a chance on a total bet after finding that the line is set at a generous 158.5. Bank on this number to be surpassed at -108 for this WNBA contest.

We only publish basketball predictions once we’ve got a clear and confident read on team news and the latest WNBA form. We also stay sharp by digging into the most valuable stats to support every pick we make.

Key Mercury vs Mystics stats:

• The 158.5 line has been covered in 7 of the last 10 Mercury games on the road.
• The 158.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Mercury games.
• The 158.5 line has been covered in 4 of the last 5 Mystics games.
• The 158.5 line has been covered in 7 of the last 10 Mystics games.
• The 158.5 line has been covered in the last 2 Mystics games.

Over 158.5 Probability

The top betting sites are estimating that there is a 51.8% likelihood of this pick winning. Based on our in-depth research, our analysts calculate the actual probability to be 55-60%. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.

If you have a strong hunch for Overs but want to get bigger odds, consider the Match Result & Total lines. Get both picks correct for a profitable return.

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Best Bet

Over 158.5 Points @ -108 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Satou Sabally Over 14.5 Points -122

Satou Sabally (Mercury) is available at -122 to rack up Over 14.5 points. We’ll place a bet that she is able to cover an appealing total for this Player Points wager.

Latest Satou Sabally Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 14.5

-122

Under 14.5

-106

Rebounds

Over 4.5

-106

Under 4.5

-122

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Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5 Points -105

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) can be wagered to record Over 14.5 points at -105. We’re happy to take this Player Points prop bet as she is capable of a big performance.

Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 14.5

-109

Under 14.5

-119

Assists

Over 9.5

+110

Under 9.5

-143

Rebounds

Over 8.5

-149

Under 8.5

+115

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Correct Score Prediction

Mercury 89 - 77 Mystics

There are a range of correct score lines to choose from and we’re taking a chance on the Mercury to record a 89-77 victory. There’s a massive return if we get this right.

Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Books Taking No Chances With Mercury

Phoenix Mercury are massive -476 favorites. They are regarded as 83% likely to win this WNBA game judging by the sportsbooks’ latest Moneyline odds. Washington Mystics are trading at bigger odds than their opponents and they can be backed at +340.

The spread is calculated to be 9, while total points comes in at 158.5. A Total bet relates to the number of points that will be scored overall. If you’re wanting to back Over 158.5, the odds are -108.

Whether you are betting pre-game or in-game on women's hoops, the top basketball sportsbooks offer a huge selection of team props and game lines. The options are practically endless, and it’s awesome to have so many alternatives.

Moneyline

Mercury

-476

Mystics

+340

Point Spread

Mercury -9

-114

Mystics +9

-106

Total Points

Under 158.5

-112

Over 158.5

-108

Kahleah Copper Favorite to Get Most Points

Kahleah Copper is the favorite to score most points. She is priced at -125 to score Over 15.5 points. Alternatively, you can back Under at -103.

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 15.5

-125

Under 15.5

-103

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-122

Under 14.5

-106

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-109

Under 14.5

-119

Sonia Citron (Mystics)

Over 13.5

-114

Under 13.5

-114

Kiki Iriafen (Mystics)

Over 12.5

-133

Under 12.5

+103

Shakira Austin (Mystics)

Over 11.5

-125

Under 11.5

-103

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 11.5

-100

Under 11.5

-130

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 9.5

+110

Under 9.5

-143

Kiki Iriafen (Mystics)

Over 8.5

-103

Under 8.5

-125

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-149

Under 8.5

+115

Shakira Austin (Mystics)

Over 5.5

-130

Under 5.5

+101

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 4.5

-106

Under 4.5

-122

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 4.5

+115

Under 4.5

-149

Micro Betting

You don’t have to wait for the final outcome when it comes to basketball micro betting. Instead, there’s the opportunity to wager on live lines which tend to be settled in a shorter space of time and the in-game odds are always changing.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Washington Mystics Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -9.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 1 of the last 10 games
• -9.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +9.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• +9.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 160.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 167.10 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 158.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 158.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 81.40 pts and allowed 79.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 82.20 pts and allowed 84.90 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 160.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 162.90 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 158.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 158.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 75.70 pts and allowed 84.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 80.70 pts and allowed 82.20 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 20252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	32	8	3478	3068	410	19-2	13-6	2W
2  Dream	27	14	3433	3159	274	14-6	13-8	3W
3  Aces	26	14	3308	3263	45	14-5	12-9	12W
4  Mercury	26	14	3325	3184	141	15-6	11-8	5W
5  Liberty	24	17	3463	3306	157	16-5	8-12	2L
6  Valkyries	22	18	3138	3055	83	13-7	9-11	4W
7  Storm	22	20	3464	3367	97	9-11	13-9	1L
8  Fever	21	20	3460	3372	88	11-9	10-11	2L
9  Sparks	19	21	3430	3515	-85	8-12	11-9	1L
10  Mystics	16	25	3194	3345	-151	10-10	6-15	7L
11  Sky	10	30	3045	3417	-372	6-15	4-15	1W
12  Sun	10	31	3116	3523	-407	6-14	4-17	3L
13  Wings	9	32	3340	3620	-280	5-16	4-16	8L