Virginia vs SMU Prediction, Picks & Odds | 17 Jan 2026

College Basketball Betting Preview: Virginia vs SMU

The Virginia Cavaliers square off against the SMU Mustangs, with tip-off scheduled for 12:00 on Saturday, January 17.

We think a wager on the totals provides value after finding that the line is set at a generous 152.5. Expect Virginia and SMU to surpass this number at -115.

Going with our Totals selection? Make sure you’ve locked in the latest BetMGM promo code and checked out our full review before placing your wager.

Virginia Cavaliers got the win in their previous game. A 79-70 triumph occurred on the road when playing Louisville Cardinals.

SMU Mustangs won their last game, beating Virginia Tech at home. It was a 77-76 win.

Head-to-Head Statistics

SMU won the last matchup between the pair. Enjoying a 54-52 triumph when facing Virginia.

NCAAB	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Virginia	15-2	1440	1139	301	11-0	4-2	4W
SMU	13-4	1503	1309	194	12-0	1-4	1W

View Full Standings

Virginia vs SMU Prediction & Picks

Explore our best Virginia vs SMU picks, including a main match prediction, correct score forecast and a bet builder ready to use. Scroll down for full analysis.

Game Prediction

You can get -115 that there are Over 152.5 points and there’s plenty of juice in those betting odds. The two teams should be able to keep the score ticking for our pick to win.

We put solid research behind every basketball pick, starting with recent form and a clear read on injuries. From there, key college hoops stats and advanced metrics help complete the picture and support smarter betting decisions.

Key Virginia vs SMU stats:

• The 152.5 line has been covered in 6 of the last 10 Virginia games on the road.
• The 152.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Virginia games on the road.
• The 152.5 line has been covered in the last 10 SMU games at home.
• The 152.5 line has been covered in 16 of the last 20 SMU games.

Over 152.5 Probability

The best betting apps make it a 53.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. Our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be closer to 60%. This college basketball wager can therefore be backed with confidence.

There are ways to boost the odds on an Over pick and some bettors go down the Bet Builder route. It’s effectively a same game parlay where you throw in other selections.

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Our Game Prediction

Over 152.5 Points @ -115 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Virginia 78 - 80 SMU

We’re expecting this to be a close game and we’ll take the Mustangs to win 80-78. This is available at huge odds for those that want to have a speculative wager.

Virginia vs SMU Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

The latest Moneyline odds are +108 that SMU win, while Virginia have been chalked up at -130. The probability of the home team winning this college game is 48% according to the sportsbooks.

There is a spread of 1.5 and total points has a line of 153.5. Basketball bettors love the chance to get an alternative angle by going for a Total wager. If you're keen on Over 153.5, this selection is available at -115.

If you’re planning to place a bet on a college basketball contest, visit the best sportsbooks and check out the wide range of team props and game lines. Find the lines which are the most attractive.

Moneyline

Virginia

-130

SMU

+108

Point Spread

Virginia -1.5

-110

SMU +1.5

-110

Total Points

Under 153.5

-105

Over 153.5

-115

The gambling sites also allow you to place player prop bets such as Points, Assists, Steals and Rebounds. This means you can focus on an individual player’s performance rather than wager on the actual outcome of the game in question.

It’s good to consider all wagering options when it comes to college basketball and micro betting can be an exciting way to get involved in the action. When everything goes in-game, consider whether the next shot will be a Two or a Three-pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Virginia Stats

SMU Stats

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 10 wins and 0 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 149.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 152.20 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 152.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 152.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 82.70 pts and allowed 66.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 76.30 pts and allowed 75.90 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 165.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 172.10 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 152.5: Covered in 9 of the previous 10 games
• Over 152.5 at Home: Covered in the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 85.40 pts and allowed 79.80 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 96.00 pts and allowed 76.10 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAB Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Atlantic Coast	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Duke	16-1	1459	1121	338	10-0	6-1	5W
Miami	15-2	1492	1176	316	11-1	4-1	10W
Virginia	15-2	1440	1139	301	11-0	4-2	4W
Clemson	15-3	1397	1166	231	11-0	4-3	8W
North Carolina	14-3	1397	1168	229	12-0	2-3	1L
Stanford	14-4	1403	1291	112	9-3	5-1	1W
SMU	13-4	1503	1309	194	12-0	1-4	1W
Virginia Tech	13-5	1475	1331	144	11-1	2-4	1L
California	13-5	1413	1261	152	13-2	0-3	3L
Syracuse	12-5	1290	1137	153	9-2	3-3	3W
NC State	12-5	1471	1211	260	9-3	3-2	2W
Louisville	12-5	1483	1193	290	9-2	3-3	1L
Wake Forest	10-7	1390	1282	108	8-3	2-4	2L
Notre Dame	10-7	1245	1158	87	8-3	2-4	3L
Georgia Tech	10-8	1358	1314	44	10-4	0-4	3L
Pittsburgh	8-9	1260	1179	81	6-5	2-4	1W
Florida State	7-10	1413	1395	18	7-5	0-5	4L
Boston College	7-10	1154	1160	-6	6-6	1-4	4L

• Overall = Overall Wins-Losses
• PF = Total Points For
• PA = Total Points Against
• N. Pts = Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Away = Away Record
• Strk = Current Streak

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