Atlas vs Toluca Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 01 Nov 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Atlas vs Toluca

Atlas host Toluca in this Liga MX encounter at Estadio Jalisco, with kick-off set for 18:00 on Saturday 1 November. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Atlas +1 on the Asian Handicap could be the order of the day. We can back them at -109 against Toluca and benefit if the underdogs draw or win, while there’s stake back if they only lose by a single goal.

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Atlas have won three consecutive games at home. In their last appearance, they suffered a 4-1 road defeat against Guadalajara at Estadio Akron. Gonzalo Pineda's team had 48% of possession and four shots on target, with Mateo Ezequiel Garcia bagging the goal.

Deportivo Toluca drew their previous game which was at home. The action at Estadio Nemesio Diez ended 2-2 against Pachuca. Los Diablos Rojos had four shots on goal and enjoyed 59% possession, while Jesus Gallardo and Paulinho were on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have won three on the bounce against Atlas. In the last encounter, Toluca banked a 3-2 victory when visiting Estadio Jalisco. The previous 10 H2H meetings have involved five Toluca wins, one Atlas victory and four draws.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Toluca	17	11	4	2	43	18	25	43:18	37
14	Atlas	17	4	5	8	24	35	-11	24:35	17

View Full Table

3 wins, 5 losses and 2 draws, averaging 1.4 goals from 3.7 shots on goal and 7.4 attempts. Atlas have had 41.7% possession and 3.3 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 1.9 goals from 5.6 shots on goal and 11.2 attempts, while the opposition have been awarded 6.4 corners.

Uros Djurdjevic is the top scorer with 5 goals, while Diego Gonzalez has 4 and Mateo Ezequiel Garcia 2. Leading assistor is Gustavo Ferrareis with 3.

Deportivo Toluca have 7 victories, 1 defeat and 2 draws, with an average of 2.8 goals from 5.2 shots on goal and 10.4 attempts. Antonio Mohamed's side have averaged 53.2% possession, 5.0 corners awarded and 4.1 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.0 goals from 3.6 shots on goal and 9.9 attempts.

Paulinho got 9 goals, Alexis Vega notched 4, while Jesus Gallardo and two other players scored 3. Alexis Vega is the top assists provider in the last 10 games with 6.

Confirmed Lineups

Atlas confirmed lineup (3-4-2-1): Camilo Vargas (GK), Adrián Mora, Matheus Dória Macedo, Gaddi Aguirre, Gustavo Ferrareis, Paulo Ramírez, Aldo Paúl Rocha, Sergio Hernández, Diego González, Mateo Ezequiel Garcia, Uros Djurdjevic.

Toluca confirmed lineup (5-3-2): Luis García (GK), Santiago Simón, Bruno Méndez, Federico Pereira, Everardo del Villar, Jesús Gallardo, Franco Romero, Marcel Ruíz, Nicolas Castro, Jesús Angulo, Paulinho.

Atlas vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips

Be fully equipped for Atlas vs Toluca with our betting guide, offering a key match prediction, a correct score recommendation, valuable corners advice, top player prop picks and a bet builder tailored for value.

Match Prediction

There’s a case for siding with Atlas +1 at odds of -109 for this Liga MX match. This Asian Handicap bet looks really attractive based on the latest stats and we’re happy with the line and price for the home team.

The football experts at Sportsgambler.com check injury updates regularly and combine this with the form guide. We’re also able to consult a database of Liga MX stats and present the key numbers to our readers.

Key Atlas vs Toluca league stats:

• The +1 line has been covered by Atlas in 4 consecutive games at home.
• The +1 line has been covered by Atlas in 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• The +1 line has been covered by Atlas in 13 of their last 19 games at home.
• The -1 line hasn’t been covered by Toluca in 12 of their last 20 games on the road.
• The -1 line hasn’t been covered by Toluca in 2 consecutive games.
• The -1 line hasn’t been covered by Toluca in 8 of their last 10 games against Atlas.

The best betting sites make it a 52.1% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, we think that the probability sits between 55-60% taking all factors into consideration. This is why we can recommend this bet.

There are larger prices available to bettors who are prepared to move the line. By taking on more risk, you are able to get more juice from your selections as a result.

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Our Match Prediction

Atlas Asian Hcp +1 @ -109 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Atlas 1 - 1 Toluca

There are attractive odds of +700 when it comes to a 1-1 draw being played out. This is a risky but potentially more rewarding bet, with this correct score option providing appeal.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Diego González Under 0.5 Shots On Target -141

Diego González (Atlas) can be wagered at -141 to not have a shot on goal. He looks like an attractive wager on the Shots on Target market and we recommend backing this player prop bet selection.

Latest Diego González Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+340

First

+1050

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-143

Under 0.5

-120

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Mateo Ezequiel Garcia to Score +750

Mateo Ezequiel Garcia (Atlas) has scored two goals in his past five Liga MX matches. This data directs us to the Anytime Goalscorer market where we can bet him to find the net at attractive odds of +750.

Latest Mateo Ezequiel Garcia Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+750

First

+2200

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-667

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Corners Prediction

Under 9.5 Corners -114

The 9.5 Total Corners line has not been covered in six straight Toluca games, while the same outcome has happened in two  consecutive Atlas matches. There’s a price of -114 for this Total Corners bet and we think the line is too big.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Atlas

Total

9.70 3.30 6.40

Home

9.60 3.60 6.00

Away

9.10 3.40 5.70

Toluca

Total

9.10 5.00 4.10

Home

7.90 5.00 2.90

Away

8.80 4.30 4.50

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-128

Under 9.5

-116

Atlas Corners

Over 4.5

+110

Under 4.5

-150

Toluca Corners

Over 5.5

-110

Under 5.5

-125

Most Corners

1

+185

X

+600

2

-179

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Atlas vs Toluca Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Deportivo Toluca are the -182 favourites on the Full-Time Result. That means a 65% chance of winning this Liga MX encounter according to the latest betting odds. If you want to wager on the underdog, Atlas have been priced up at +410.

There’s a nice alternative in the form of the Half-Time Result market. This allows you to back Toluca at -106 to lead at the break or alternatively opt for Atlas at +360. The draw is the third option at +163.

The Total Goals market reveals that Over 2.5 Goals is the current betting favourite. Punters expecting both teams to find the net can get -189 when it comes to BTTS Yes.

When it comes to every Liga MX match, you will find hundreds of markets available. Go through the various attractive options which are available at the best football betting sites.

Full-Time Result

1

+410

X

+340

2

-182

Half-Time Result

1

+360

X

+163

2

-106

Double Chance

1X

+120

12

-625

X2

-769

Draw No Bet

1

+270

2

-476

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +1

-111

2 Hcp -1

-114

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+160

Over 2.5

-222

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-189

No

+130

Favourite João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is +300 to be the First Goalscorer, while similar odds apply when it comes to him scoring the last goal.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

-114

Anytime

+300

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+150

Anytime

+450

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+280

Anytime

+800

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+280

Anytime

+850

Diego González (Atlas)

First

+340

Anytime

+1050

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+350

Anytime

+1000

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+410

Anytime

+1150

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+420

Anytime

+1200

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+430

Anytime

+1400

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+430

Anytime

+1300

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+430

Anytime

+1200

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1600

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1600

Víctor Ríos (Atlas)

First

+550

Anytime

+1600

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+2000

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2200

Mateo Ezequiel Garcia (Atlas)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-222

Under 0.5

+140

Diego González (Atlas)

Over 0.5

-143

Under 0.5

-120

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

-123

Under 1.5

-141

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-103

Under 0.5

-167

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+104

Under 0.5

-204

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+143

Under 0.5

-250

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-345

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-333

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-400

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-333

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+188

Under 0.5

-357

Víctor Ríos (Atlas)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-400

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-556

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+225

Under 0.5

-455

Mateo Ezequiel Garcia (Atlas)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-667

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-769

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-769

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+320

Under 0.5

-1000

Atlas have clocked up three straight wins at Estadio Jalisco. Gonzalo Pineda's team have racked up four draws, three wins and three losses in the previous 10 home games, netting an average of 1.90 goals per match and conceding 2.00.

Toluca have gone unbeaten away in the last four games. Los Diablos Rojos have five victories, three draws and two defeats in the last 10 away matches, netting an average of 1.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00.

Toluca won 3-2 when they last played Atlas at Estadio Jalisco. The past 6 H2H meetings at Estadio Jalisco have included three Toluca wins along with three draws.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Atlas Home Stats		3-4-3	3.90	1.90	2.00	7	3	8	2
Toluca Away Stats		5-3-2	2.90	1.90	1.00	5	5	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Atlas vs Toluca Lineups & Team News

Don’t miss the latest Atlas vs Toluca team news before you bet. We’ll bring you both the expected and confirmed lineups for the Liga MX, along with current injury news.

Atlas Team Page Toluca Team Page

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