Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 31 Mar 2026
World Cup Play-Off Final Betting Preview: Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy
Only one step remains on the road to North America as Bosnia-Herzegovina host Italy in this World Cup play-off final at Bilino Polje Stadium in Zenica, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Tuesday 31 March. The winner will end up in Group B, joining co-hosts Canada, Qatar and Switzerland
Bosnia-Herzegovina +1 could be the way forward on the Asian Handicap. You can get odds of -105 that the Dragons benefit from having a one-goal start and that means money back if they are narrowly defeated by Italy.
Bosnia-Herzegovina reached this play-off final following a resilient penalty shootout victory over Wales at the Cardiff City Stadium. Despite facing significant pressure from the hosts, who registered seven shots on target over 120 minutes and hit the woodwork twice, the visitors found an 86th-minute lifeline through a trademark Edin Dzeko header.
After the match finished 1-1 following extra time, 18-year-old Kerim Alajbegovic held his nerve to score the winning spot-kick, securing a 4-2 shootout win and keeping their World Cup dreams alive.
Italy progressed to the play-off final with a 2-0 victory over Northern Ireland. Playing at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo, Gennaro Gattuso’s side controlled proceedings with 61% possession and registered seven shots on target.
The deadlock was broken early in the second half when Sandro Tonali thrashed home a powerful first-time strike from the edge of the box. Tonali then turned provider in the 80th minute, setting up Moise Kean, who sealed the result with a clinical finish in off the post.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Italy are unbeaten in their last four meetings with Bosnia-Herzegovina. In their most recent clash at the Grbavica Stadium, Gli Azzurri secured a 2-0 Nations League away victory. This dominant run across the past four head-to-head matches includes three Italian wins and a single draw.
| Europe World Cup Qualification | G | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | GD | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  Bosnia and H. |
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 17:7 | 17 |
| 2 |  Italy |
8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 21:12 | 18 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina have 6 wins, 1 loss and 3 draws, averaging 2.3 goals from 9.8 attempts and 4.4 shots on goal. Sergej Barbarez's men have averaged 46.6% possession and 3.9 corners per game, conceding 1.1 goals and 3.8 corners from 9.0 attempts and 2.9 shots on goal.
Top scorer is Edin Dzeko on 6 goals, while Haris Tabakovic and Ermedin Demirovic have both racked up 2. The leading assistors are Amar Memic and Amar Dedic with 2, while goalie Nikola Vasilj has recorded 3 clean sheets.
Italy have won 7, lost 2 and drawn 1, averaging 19.4 attempts, 6.4 shots on goal and 2.6 goals. Gli Azzurri average 58.6% possession, 554.2 passes, 7.2 corners in their favour and 3.4 corners against, while 1.5 goals have been conceded from 3.5 shots on goal and 9.4 attempts.
The top scorers have been Moise Kean with 7, Mateo Retegui on 5 and Giacomo Raspadori 4. Mateo Retegui and Federico Dimarco are the top assist makers on 4, with Gianluigi Donnarumma recording 4 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips
This expert Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy betting breakdown features our match prediction, a correct score tip, corners analysis, player prop suggestions and a carefully constructed bet builder to guide your wagers.
Match Prediction
We’re expecting Bosnia-Herzegovina to give a good account of themselves and you can get odds of -105 about the underdogs with a +1 goal start. We think that they will play well in this play-off final.
The football experts at Sportsgambler.com check injury updates regularly and combine this with the form guide. We’re also able to consult a database of World Cup qualifying stats and present the key numbers to our readers.
Key Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy stats:
When you look at the latest odds, our pick has a 51.3% chance of winning. However, our experts have this number between 55-60% based on their in-depth research. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.
It can be beneficial to consider a Bet Builder if you want bigger odds for Bosnia-Herzegovina to cover the line. Choose additional legs until you’re happy with the overall price for your wager.
Before you make your picks, explore our detailed betting guide filled with free bets, the latest promo codes and welcome bonuses.
Correct Score Prediction
1
-
1
Italy
We’ve found an attractive bet at odds of +550 and it involves the game ending in a 1-1 scoreline. We like a wager on correct score as there’s the chance to bank a bigger return.
Player Prop Picks
Giacomo Raspadori (Italy) has covered the 2.5 shots total in back-to-back away matches. We think this could be a decisive stat and we’ll bet on him to cover the Player Shots line which is on offer at odds of +102.
Moise Kean (Italy) has found the net in four consecutive matches. We’ll use this stat and take odds of +145 that he is able to score at least one goal when it comes to wagering on Anytime Goalscorer.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Corners Prediction
Bosnia-Herzegovina have had under 3.5 corners in two consecutive matches, with Italy conceding under 3.5 corners in the previous five games. There’s the opportunity to go under the Bosnia-Herzegovina Team Corners line and we’re expecting this to happen, with odds of -161 available.
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Italy
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Bet Builder Tips
You’re welcome to follow our bet builder which has Bosnia-Herzegovina to cover the +1 Asian Handicap, both teams to score combined with Bosnia-Herzegovina to finish with under 3.5 corners.
A bet builder is a great alternative for football punters who want to focus their wagering on a single game. Bettors enjoy creating a tailored wager based on their predictions for how a match is likely to turn out.
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
The Full-Time Result odds of -200 suggest that Italy are likely victors and there’s a 67% probability that the favourites win this World Cup play-off final. If you’re searching for a different slant, Bosnia-Herzegovina are available at +650.
Italy can be backed alternatively on the Half-Time Result market and that means getting +105. However, Bosnia-Herzegovina are +525 and the draw is +128 if you want to take a different option.
Under 2.5 Goals is operating at the shortest price for those anticipating two or less goals. As long as one team or more fails to score, then the No option on the Both Teams to Score market will pay out at -154.
All of the World Cup qualifying matches see the best betting apps go to town with their service. Bettors can find the best approach from the hundreds of markets which are presented to them each time.
Favourite Mateo Retegui is available at +290 to be the First Goalscorer. Similar odds apply if you’re interested in him to score the last goal.
- World Cup Qualification UEFA 2nd Round: 26/03 Wales 3 Bosnia and H.5
- World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. H: 18/11 Austria 1 Bosnia and H.1
- World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. H: 15/11 Bosnia and H. 3 Romania1
- Friendlies: 12/10 Malta 1 Bosnia and H.4
- World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. H: 09/10 Cyprus 2 Bosnia and H.2
- World Cup Qualification UEFA 2nd Round: 26/03 Italy 2 Northern Ireland0
- World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. I: 16/11 Italy 1 Norway4
- World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. I: 13/11 Moldova 0 Italy2
- World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. I: 14/10 Italy 3 Israel0
- World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. I: 11/10 Estonia 1 Italy3
Latest competitive match stats. Full Time Result and Goals.
Bosnia-Herzegovina Stats
Italy Stats
- 6 wins, 1 defeat and 3 draws in the previous 10 matches
- 3 wins, 6 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 home matches
- 7 wins, 2 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
- 6 wins, 2 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 2.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 3.40 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.90 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
- BTTS Yes in 7 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 7 of the previous 10 home matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 2.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 4.10 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 3.60 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
- BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 away matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 3.90 corners awarded and 3.80 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 3.60 corners awarded and 3.50 corners against in the last 10 home matches
- An average of 7.70 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 7.10 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
- Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 7.20 corners awarded and 3.40 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 5.60 corners awarded and 3.50 corners against in the last 10 away matches
- An average of 10.60 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 9.10 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
- Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 away matches
- An average of 46.60% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 46.80% possession in the last 10 home matches
- Most possession in 4 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 4 of the last 10 home matches
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy Lineups & Team News
The latest Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy team news could impact your bets — review it first. We’ll update you on the confirmed World Cup qualifying lineups as well as all recent injury developments.
Previous Bosnia-Herzegovina Lineups
Previous Italy Lineups
Bosnia-Herzegovina Player Stats & Squad
Manager: Sergej Barbarez
Italy Player Stats & Squad
World Cup qualifying Table| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16:3 | 15 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6:8 | 12 |
| 3 | Northern Ireland | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7:6 | 9 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1:13 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14:2 | 14 |
| 2 | Kosovo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Slovenia | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 4 | Sweden | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4:12 | 2 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scotland | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13:7 | 13 |
| 2 | Denmark | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16:7 | 11 |
| 3 | Greece | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10:12 | 7 |
| 4 | Belarus | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4:17 | 2 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16:4 | 16 |
| 2 | Ukraine | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:11 | 10 |
| 3 | Iceland | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13:11 | 7 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3:16 | 1 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21:2 | 16 |
| 2 | Turkey | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17:12 | 13 |
| 3 | Georgia | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7:15 | 3 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:19 | 3 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 20:7 | 13 |
| 2 | Ireland | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 3 | Hungary | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11:10 | 8 |
| 4 | Armenia | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:19 | 3 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 27:4 | 20 |
| 2 | Poland | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:7 | 17 |
| 3 | Finland | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8:14 | 10 |
| 4 | Malta | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4:19 | 5 |
| 5 | Lithuania | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6:15 | 3 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 22:4 | 19 |
| 2 | Bosnia and H. | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | 17 |
| 3 | Romania | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19:10 | 13 |
| 4 | Cyprus | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 8 |
| 5 | San Marino | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2:39 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norway | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37:5 | 24 |
| 2 | Italy | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 21:12 | 18 |
| 3 | Israel | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19:20 | 12 |
| 4 | Estonia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | 4 |
| 5 | Moldova | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:32 | 1 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 29:7 | 18 |
| 2 | Wales | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 21:11 | 16 |
| 3 | North Macedonia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13:10 | 13 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:13 | 8 |
| 5 | Liechtenstein | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0:31 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22:0 | 24 |
| 2 | Albania | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | 14 |
| 3 | Serbia | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9:10 | 13 |
| 4 | Latvia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:15 | 5 |
| 5 | Andorra | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3:16 | 1 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatia | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 26:4 | 22 |
| 2 | Czech Republic | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18:8 | 16 |
| 3 | Faroe Islands | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11:9 | 12 |
| 4 | Montenegro | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3:28 | 0 |
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