Sweden vs Poland Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 31 Mar 2026

World Cup Play-Off Final Betting Preview: Sweden vs Poland

A Group F World Cup spot is at stake as Sweden host Poland in this play-off final at Strawberry Arena in Solna, Stockholm, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Tuesday 31 March.

We are wagering Poland +0.5 at -120 as we’re expecting the Eagles to avoid defeat in 90 minutes. This outcome can be achieved against Sweden, with the numbers backing up this Asian Handicap pick.

Sweden entered the play-off via their UEFA Nations League performance after finishing bottom of Group B. The Swedes struggled for form during the qualifying group stage, finishing behind Switzerland, Slovenia and Kosovo while managing just four goals in six matches. Sweden are still without star striker Alexander Isak, who is ruled out through injury.

The Swedes secured their place in this final with a 3-1 semi-final victory over Ukraine at the neutral Estadi Ciutat de Valencia in Spain. Despite Graham Potter's side having just 37% possession, they were clinical with their four shots on target, as a Viktor Gyökeres hat-trick proved the difference.

Poland secured their play-off spot by finishing second in Group G, trailing the Netherlands by three points, but finishing ahead of Finland, Malta and Lithuania

The Polish Eagles progressed to the final after a 2-1 victory over Albania at the National Stadium in Warsaw. In a closely contested semi-final where they held 49% possession, the hosts were clinical with their three shots on goal. Star man Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zielinski both found the net to ensure Poland advanced to this ultimate qualification battle.

Head-to-Head Statistics

For the second time in four years, Sweden and Poland meet in a winner-takes-all World Cup play-off final. Poland held the upper hand in the play-off final for the Qatar tournament, recording a 2-0 home win on March 29, 2022. That match at Stadion Slaski, where second-half goals from Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zielinski secured the victory, was the most recent head-to-head meeting between these two nations.

Historically, Sweden have dominated this fixture with 15 wins to Poland's 9, while 4 matches have ended in a draw. Sweden have been particularly dominant on home soil, where the Blue and Yellow have not lost to Poland since 1930. In the ten meetings in Sweden since that date, the record stands at 8 Swedish wins and 2 draws.

Europe World Cup Qualification		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4	12	-8	4:12	2
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14	7	7	14:7	17

View Full Table

4 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws, averaging 1.8 goals from 5.2 shots on goal and 11.7 attempts. Sweden have had 55.5% possession and 6.4 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 1.4 goals from 3.9 shots on goal and 9.1 attempts, while their opponents have been awarded 3.6 corners.

Top goalscorer Viktor Gyoekeres has found the net 9 times, with Dejan Kulusevski and Sebastian Nanasi scoring 2 each. Viktor Gyoekeres is the leading assists maker with 3.

Poland have 6 victories, 2 defeats and 2 draws, with an average of 1.7 goals from 6.0 shots on goal and 16.9 attempts. There’s been an average of 49.2% possession, 432.5 passes, 6.1 corners awarded and 3.5 corners against, while Jan Urban's team have conceded 1.0 goals from 3.4 shots on goal and 9.3 attempts.

Robert Lewandowski has scored 5 goals, followed by Piotr Zielinski, Jakub Kaminski, Matty Cash and Karol Swiderski on 2. Sebastian Szymanski, Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zielinski are top assists providers with 3, while Lukasz Skorupski has recorded 3 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Sweden confirmed lineup (3-4-2-1): Kristoffer Nordfeldt (GK), Gustaf Lagerbielke, Carl Starfelt, Victor Nilsson Lindeloef, Daniel Svensson, Yasin Ayari, Jesper Karlstroem, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Anthony Elanga, Benjamin Nygren, Viktor Gyoekeres.

Poland confirmed lineup (3-4-2-1): Kamil Grabara (GK), Przemyslaw Wisniewski, Jan Bednarek, Jakub Kiwior, Matty Cash, Sebastian Szymanski, Piotr Zielinski, Nicola Zalewski, Karol Swiderski, Jakub Kaminski, Robert Lewandowski.

Sweden vs Poland Prediction & Betting Tips

Explore our top Sweden vs Poland betting tips, including a match prediction, correct score forecast, expected corners bet, player performance props and a bet builder ready to use.

Match Prediction

We’re backing Poland +0.5 on the Asian Handicap for this play-off final at odds of -120. We expect the visitors to either draw or win in 90 minutes and we’re optimistic they can stay close to Sweden.

The football predictions are generated after consulting the team news for both sides along with the form. We are also able to analyse the latest World Cup qualifying stats which can suggest how the game might unfold.

Key Sweden vs Poland stats:

• The +0.5 line has been covered by Poland in 6 consecutive games.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Poland in 8 of their last 10 games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by Sweden in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by Sweden in 3 consecutive games at home.

According to the latest odds, our pick has a 54.6% chance of winning. Our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be closer to 60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this wager.

There are options to buy and sell goals and effectively choose the Asian Handicap line which makes the most appeal. It all comes down to how safe or risky you want to play things.

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Our Match Prediction

Poland Asian Hcp +0.5 @ -120 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 29, 20:57). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Sweden 1 - 1 Poland

Our prediction for the correct score is for the teams to play out a 1-1 draw and this is available at +460. It’s a fun wager to place which lands a bigger potential return.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Robert Lewandowski Over 2.5 Shots -141

Robert Lewandowski (Poland) has finished with over 2.5 shots in his past two games. If you side with our view that he can cover the Player Shots line, then you are able to secure odds of -141 for this outcome.

Latest Robert Lewandowski Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+160

First

+400

Shots

Over 2.5

-143

Under 2.5

-

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Karol Swiderski To Score +380

Karol Swiderski (Poland) is available at +380 to be on the scoresheet. We’ll take a chance with this Anytime Goalscorer wager as the betting odds look really appealing.

Latest Karol Swiderski Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+360

First

+900

Shots

Over 1.5

-118

Under 1.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Poland Over 3.5 Corners -143

Poland have had over 3.5 corners in five consecutive away matches, with Sweden conceding over 3.5 corners in the previous three games. The amount of Poland corners could be bigger than the Team Corners line suggests and that leads us to a bet at odds of -143.

Competitive Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Sweden

Total

10.00 6.40 3.60

Home

11.40 7.60 3.80

Away

8.80 5.80 3.00

Poland

Total

9.60 6.10 3.50

Home

8.40 5.20 3.20

Away

9.60 4.60 5.00

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-100

Under 10.5

-143

Sweden Corners

Over 5.5

-112

Under 5.5

-127

Poland Corners

Over 4.5

-103

Under 4.5

-139

Most Corners

1

-152

X

+650

2

+150

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Sweden vs Poland Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The bookies have Sweden as -100 favourites for this World Cup play-off final, with the Full-Time Result betting odds implying that the Blue and Yellow are 50% likely to win. Poland are seen as the most unlikely winner at +285.

You can take advantage of the Draw No Bet market if you want a less-risky option. Going down this route means you can back Sweden at -238 or instead go for Poland at +160.

For those expecting a low-scoring contest, Under 2.5 is the market leader on the Total Goals market. There are always two Both Teams to Score choices, with Yes available at -125 and No at -108.

For those visiting one of our recommended sports betting sites, you are guaranteed a fantastic service for all the World Cup qualifying matches. The hundreds of football markets always ensure lots of choice.

Full-Time Result

1

-100

X

+245

2

+285

Half-Time Result

1

+155

X

+118

2

+325

Double Chance

1X

-385

12

-333

X2

-127

Draw No Bet

1

-238

2

+160

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

-102

2 Hcp +0.5

-122

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-132

Over 2.5

-100

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-125

No

-108

Those interested in Viktor Gyökeres to find the net anytime can get +125, with the favourite on offer to score the first goal at odds of +330.

Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden)

First

+125

Anytime

+330

Robert Lewandowski (Poland)

First

+160

Anytime

+400

Gustaf Nilsson (Sweden)

First

+200

Anytime

+500

Roony Bardghji (Sweden)

First

+250

Anytime

+600

Anthony Elanga (Sweden)

First

+250

Anytime

+650

Taha Abdi Ali (Sweden)

First

+280

Anytime

+650

Benjamin Nygren (Sweden)

First

+300

Anytime

+700

Gustav Lundgren (Sweden)

First

+300

Anytime

+700

Williot Swedberg (Sweden)

First

+300

Anytime

+700

Karol Swiderski (Poland)

First

+360

Anytime

+900

Krzysztof Piątek (Poland)

First

+360

Anytime

+900

Besfort Zeneli (Sweden)

First

+410

Anytime

+1050

Mattias Svanberg (Sweden)

First

+440

Anytime

+1150

Jakub Kamiński (Poland)

First

+500

Anytime

+1200

Oskar Pietuszewski (Poland)

First

+525

Anytime

+1300

Piotr Zielinski (Poland)

First

+550

Anytime

+1300

Yasin Ayari (Sweden)

First

+550

Anytime

+1300

Lucas Bergvall (Sweden)

First

+550

Anytime

+1300

Gabriel Gudmundsson (Sweden)

First

+575

Anytime

+1400

Sebastian Szymanski (Poland)

First

+750

Anytime

+1900

Hugo Larsson (Sweden)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Michal Skóras (Poland)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Nicola Zalewski (Poland)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Jakub Moder (Poland)

First

+1000

Anytime

+2200

Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden)

Over 3.5

-116

Under 3.5

-

Robert Lewandowski (Poland)

Over 2.5

-143

Under 2.5

-

Gustaf Nilsson (Sweden)

Over 2.5

-118

Under 2.5

-

Roony Bardghji (Sweden)

Over 2.5

+120

Under 2.5

-

Anthony Elanga (Sweden)

Over 2.5

-109

Under 2.5

-

Williot Swedberg (Sweden)

Over 2.5

+140

Under 2.5

-

Nicola Zalewski (Poland)

Over 1.5

-119

Under 1.5

-

Sebastian Szymanski (Poland)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-

Lucas Bergvall (Sweden)

Over 1.5

+150

Under 1.5

-

Yasin Ayari (Sweden)

Over 1.5

+112

Under 1.5

-

Piotr Zielinski (Poland)

Over 1.5

+135

Under 1.5

-

Oskar Pietuszewski (Poland)

Over 1.5

+145

Under 1.5

-

Mattias Svanberg (Sweden)

Over 1.5

+115

Under 1.5

-

Jakub Kamiński (Poland)

Over 1.5

+118

Under 1.5

-

Besfort Zeneli (Sweden)

Over 1.5

+123

Under 1.5

-

Krzysztof Piątek (Poland)

Over 1.5

-119

Under 1.5

-

Karol Swiderski (Poland)

Over 1.5

-118

Under 1.5

-

Gustav Lundgren (Sweden)

Over 1.5

-172

Under 1.5

-

Benjamin Nygren (Sweden)

Over 1.5

-172

Under 1.5

-

Taha Abdi Ali (Sweden)

Over 1.5

-182

Under 1.5

-

Gabriel Gudmundsson (Sweden)

Over 0.5

-164

Under 0.5

-

Hugo Larsson (Sweden)

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-

Michal Skóras (Poland)

Over 0.5

-143

Under 0.5

-

Jakub Moder (Poland)

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-

Latest competitive match stats. Full Time Result and Goals.

Sweden Stats

Poland Stats

Full-Time Result

• 4 wins, 4 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 5 wins, 4 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

• 6 wins, 2 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 5 wins, 3 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

• An average of 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
• An average of 3.20 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.10 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 3 of the previous 10 home matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

• An average of 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
• An average of 2.70 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.70 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
• BTTS Yes in 7 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 away matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

• An average of 6.40 corners awarded and 3.60 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 7.60 corners awarded and 3.80 corners against in the last 10 home matches
• An average of 10.00 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 11.40 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
• Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

• An average of 6.10 corners awarded and 3.50 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 4.60 corners awarded and 5.00 corners against in the last 10 away matches
• An average of 9.60 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 9.60 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
• Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

• An average of 55.50% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 53.50% possession in the last 10 home matches
• Most possession in 7 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 6 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

• An average of 49.20% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 47.30% possession in the last 10 away matches
• Most possession in 5 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 5 of the last 10 away matches

Sweden vs Poland Lineups & Team News

Avoid surprises — review the Sweden vs Poland team news before you bet. We’ll update you with the confirmed World Cup qualifying lineups and the latest injury reports.

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