América vs Toluca Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 22 May 2025

Best Bet Could Be América for the Win

Get ready for the first leg of the Liga MX Clausura Final as América clash with Toluca at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes.

We’ve identified a value bet in the form of América who are trading at odds of -109. There’s plenty of juice in the price when it comes to this Full-Time Result selection and they can beat Toluca.

América 3-0 Winners in Last H2H Battle

Club América were winners last time out. Their 2-1 victory against Cruz Azul at Estadio Azteca was their third consecutive home victory. Andre Jardine's team boasted 67% possession and had six shots on target, while Henry Martin and Cristian Borja scored one goal apiece.

Deportivo Toluca claimed a 3-0 home win over Tigres UANL at Estadio Nemesio Diez in their previous game. Los Diablos Rojos boasted 56% possession and recorded eight shots on goal, while Alexis Vega scored twice and Ivan Lopez also found the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It’s been three victories on the bounce for América when playing Toluca. Their last encounter was at Estadio Azteca, with América claiming a 3-0 home win. The past 10 H2H matches have included five América victories, three draws and two Toluca wins.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
2	América	7	5	2	0	15	6	9	15:6	17
5	Toluca	7	4	1	2	16	10	6	16:10	13

View Full Table

5 wins, 3 losses and 2 draws, averaging 1.5 goals from 4.6 shots on goal and 9.4 attempts. Club América have had 54.2% possession and 4.8 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 0.5 goals from 2.9 shots on goal and 7.4 attempts, while being awarded 4.5 corners.

Top goalscorers Victor Davila and Rodrigo Aguirre have found the net 3 times, with Alex Zendejas scoring 2. Kevin Alvarez, Alex Zendejas and Erick Sanchez are the leading assists makers with 2.

Deportivo Toluca have won 7, lost 1 and drawn 2, with an average of 2.2 goals from 6.0 shots on goal and 10.1 attempts. Antonio Mohamed's side have averaged 51.6% possession, 4.2 corners taken and 4.8 corners against, while conceding 1.2 goals from 3.7 shots on goal and 9.0 attempts.

Paulinho has scored 7 goals, followed by Alexis Vega on 5 and Jesus Gallardo with 3. Alexis Vega has managed to clock up 5 assists in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

América confirmed lineup (4-3-3): Luis Malagon (GK), Kevin Alvarez, Israel Reyes, Sebastian Caceres, Cristian Borja, Erick Sanchez, Alvaro Fidalgo, Jonathan dos Santos, Alex Zendejas, Henry Martin, Victor Davila.

Toluca confirmed lineup (5-3-2): Luis Garcia (GK), Bruno Mendez, Luan Garcia, Federico Pereira, Diego Barbosa, Jesus Gallardo, Franco Romero, Jesus Angulo, Marcel Ruiz, Robert Morales, Alexis Vega.

América vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips

We’re going for a straight pick on América as we think they’re the likely winners of this Liga MX contest. We think the hosts can achieve some kind of victory, with odds of -109 currently available.

Our football picks always stem from lots of research and it begins by looking at the latest team news and current form. When we have a strong view of what might happen, we match up the latest numbers.

Key América vs Toluca league stats:

• América have won 4 of their last 5 games at home.
• América have won 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• América have won 3 consecutive games at home.
• América have won the last 3 games between these teams.

América to Win Probability

According to the betting sites, our pick has a 52.1% chance of landing a return. In our opinion, there’s actually a probability of success closer to 60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this bet.

There’s the chance to secure bigger odds by combining América to win with BTTS No if you think that they’ll not only oblige with a victory but also keep a clean sheet during the ninety minutes.

Our Match Prediction

América To Win @ -109 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

América 2 - 1 Toluca

An exciting bet could be a 2-1 victory in favor of América at odds of +600. A correct score wager provides a fun alternative and a nice potential return on the cards.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Alexis Vega to Score +335

Alexis Vega (Toluca) has netted three goals in his past five Liga MX games. We think there’s value in backing him for an Anytime Goalscorer prop bet at +335 which will hopefully see him find the net.

Latest Alexis Vega Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+410

First

+800

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Corners Prediction

América Under 5.5 Corners -143

The 5.5 corners line has not been covered by América in four straight games, with Toluca conceding under 5.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 away matches. The América Team Corners line looks too high and we’re content to go under this number at odds of -143.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

América

Total

9.30 4.80 4.50

Home

9.20 4.70 4.50

Away

9.10 4.80 4.30

Toluca

Total

9.00 4.20 4.80

Home

8.70 4.20 4.50

Away

9.60 5.30 4.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-116

Under 9.5

-128

América Corners

Over 5.5

+110

Under 5.5

-150

Toluca Corners

Over 3.5

-150

Under 3.5

+110

Most Corners

1

-213

X

+575

2

+195

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América vs Toluca Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Bookies Giving América Plenty of Respect

Favourites Club América are regarded as the likeliest winners for this Liga MX clash. The -143 about them triumphing means a 59% chance of coming out on top based on their current betting odds. Deportivo Toluca are operating at larger odds than the opposition and the underdogs can be wagered at +360.

Stake is split between -0.5 and -1.0 when betting América -0.75 at -108 on the Asian Handicap. Beating Toluca by 2+ goals sees a full payout. Winning by one goal means a return on the former and a push on the latter.

You’re able to back Over 2.5 Goals or Under 2.5 Goals at roughly the same price right now. If you think both sides will find the net, then you can back the Yes option on the Both Teams to Score market at -130.

You’ll be blown away by the hundreds of markets available for Liga MX matches. Head to the best betting sites and take your pick from the various football options available.

Full-Time Result

1

-143

X

+270

2

+360

Half-Time Result

1

+128

X

+123

2

+340

Double Chance

1X

-625

12

-455

X2

-103

Draw No Bet

1

-370

2

+215

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.75

-108

2 Hcp +0.75

-122

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-116

Over 2.5

-115

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-130

No

-110

Henry Martín Heads First Goalscorer Market

Favourite Henry Martín is +340 to be the First Goalscorer, while similar odds apply when it comes to him scoring the last goal.

Henry Martín (América)

First

+148

Anytime

+340

Rodrigo Aguirre (América)

First

+195

Anytime

+440

João Paulo "Paulinho" Fernandes (Toluca)

First

+215

Anytime

+480

Paul Brian Rodríguez (América)

First

+240

Anytime

+540

Víctor Dávila (América)

First

+265

Anytime

+600

Javairô Dilrosun (América)

First

+290

Anytime

+600

Diego Valdés (América)

First

+380

Anytime

+800

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+410

Anytime

+800

Antonio Álvarez (América)

First

+430

Anytime

+850

Álex Zendejas (América)

First

+430

Anytime

+900

Erick Sanchez (América)

First

+430

Anytime

+950

Aarón Arredondo (América)

First

+460

Anytime

+1050

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+510

Anytime

+950

Dagoberto Espinoza (América)

First

+525

Anytime

+1100

Miguel Ramírez (América)

First

+540

Anytime

+1200

Edgar López (Toluca)

First

+540

Anytime

+1150

Hélio Júnio "Helinho" Nunes de Castro (Toluca)

First

+540

Anytime

+1150

Jesus Angulo (Toluca)

First

+575

Anytime

+1100

Jonathan dos Santos (América)

First

+575

Anytime

+1300

Álvaro Fidalgo (América)

First

+575

Anytime

+1300

Juan Pablo Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+1400

Cristian Calderón (América)

First

+700

Anytime

+1500

Israel Reyes (América)

First

+700

Anytime

+1500

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+1600

Kevin (1999) Alvarez (América)

First

+750

Anytime

+1600

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+1600

Igor Lichnovsky (América)

First

+750

Anytime

+1800

Franco Rossano (América)

First

+800

Anytime

+1800

Miguel Vazquez (América)

First

+850

Anytime

+1900

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+900

Anytime

+2000

América vs Toluca Lineups & Team News

It’s good to know about any injuries and this is reflected in our América vs Toluca team news, with this leading to predicted and confirmed lineups.

The Liga MX squad information is a great asset when it comes to making your bets.

América Team Page Toluca Team Page