Derby vs Southampton Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 04 Oct 2025

Championship Betting Preview: Derby vs Southampton

Derby host Southampton in this Championship fixture at Pride Park, with kick-off set for 10:00 on Saturday 4 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Derby look a good bet to defeat Southampton and we can back the home team at -111 with a +0.25 goal start on the Asian Handicap. This means splitting the stake equally between 0 and +0.5 in the quest for a return.

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Derby County drew their last game 1-1 at home, with the action taking place at Pride Park against Charlton Athletic. John Eustace's men enjoyed 60% possession and managed three shots on target, while Matthew Clarke bagged the goal.

Southampton won their previous game 2-1. This was an away victory at Bramall Lane against Sheffield United. The South Coast side had five shots on goal and 52% possession, with Ross Stewart finding the net twice.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was a penalty shootout FA Cup away win (2-2 AET) for Derby when they last played Southampton. This was at St. Mary's.

Championship		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
10	Derby	15	6	5	4	20	19	1	20:19	23
17	Southampton	15	4	6	5	18	21	-3	18:21	18

View Full Table

2 wins, 3 losses and 5 draws, averaging 1.1 goals from 2.5 shots on goal and 8.0 attempts. Derby have had 43.6% possession and 3.5 corners per game. On average, their opponents have scored 1.4 goals from 4.5 shots on goal and 12.3 attempts, while being awarded 5.3 corners.

Top scorer Carlton Morris has found the net 4 times, with Matthew Clarke, Ben Brereton Diaz, Andreas Weimann and Rhian Brewster getting 1 goals each. Patrick Agyemang is the top assists maker on 2.

Southampton have won 2, lost 4 and drawn 4, with an average of 13.0 attempts, 3.8 shots on goal and 1.1 goals. The Saints average 56.2% possession, 5.8 corners in their favour and 4.0 corners against, while 1.5 goals have been conceded from 3.3 shots on goal and 12.2 attempts.

Ross Stewart has scored 3, followed by Adam Armstrong and Ryan Manning with 2 goals apiece. Ryan Fraser and Mateus Fernandes have been the top assists providers with 2 in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Derby confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Jacob Widell Zetterstroem (GK), Max Johnston, Dion Sanderson, Matthew Clarke, Craig Forsyth, Lewis Travis, David Ozoh, Bobby Clark, Carlton Morris, Andreas Weimann, Patrick Agyemang.

Southampton confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Alex McCarthy (GK), Ronnie Edwards, Nathan Wood, Joshua Quarshie, Ryan Manning, Caspar Jander, Shea Charles, Ryan Fraser, Leo Scienza, Adam Armstrong, Ross Stewart.

Derby vs Southampton Prediction & Betting Tips

Explore our top Derby vs Southampton betting tips, including a match prediction, correct score forecast, expected corners bet, player performance props and a bet builder ready to use.

Match Prediction

We’ll back Derby +0.25 for this Championship game, with odds of -111 available. We have a feeling that they can perform well and the Asian Handicap line looks more than fair for this outcome.

The Championship tipsters at Sportsgambler.com always have a strong handle on team news. A form guide is also utilised for our betting verdict along with checking out the numbers that are going to help inform our final football picks.

Key Derby vs Southampton league stats:

• The +0.25 line has been covered by Derby in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Derby in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Derby in 2 consecutive games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Southampton in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Southampton in 6 of their last 8 games.

According to the top betting sites, our pick has a 52.6% chance of landing a return. However, our experts have this number between 55-60% based on their in-depth research. It’s the reason why we are recommending this wager.

If you’re looking for a good alternative to backing Derby on the Asian Handicap, then consider the Winning Margin market. You can choose from a range of fixed intervals and odds.

Check our complete list of betting promo codes, free bet deals and the latest welcome bonuses before wagering.

Our Match Prediction

Derby Asian Hcp +0.25 @ -111 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Derby 1 - 0 Southampton

Derby are available to back at +650 to secure a 1-0 victory. This is a risky but potentially more rewarding bet, with this correct score option providing appeal.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Cameron Archer Over 0.5 Shots On Target -132

Cameron Archer (Southampton) has chalked up one or more shots on goal in one of his past five league games on the road. If you side with our view that he can cover the Shots on Target line, then you are able to secure odds of -132 for this outcome.

Latest Cameron Archer Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+265

First

+550

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-133

Under 0.5

-118

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Carlton Morris to Score +275

Carlton Morris (Derby) has netted four goals in his past eight Championship matches. We’re happy to take the +275 for this Anytime Goalscorer bet as there’s value in the odds that he finds the net at least once.

Latest Carlton Morris Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+280

First

+600

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-127

Under 0.5

-125

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Corners Prediction

Southampton To Have Most Corners -128

Southampton have been awarded the most corners in eight consecutive games. The most corners could go to Southampton and you can get an attractive -128.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Derby

Total

8.80 3.50 5.30

Home

9.30 5.00 4.30

Away

8.60 2.70 5.90

Southampton

Total

9.80 5.80 4.00

Home

10.90 4.20 6.70

Away

8.40 4.50 3.90

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-147

Under 9.5

+102

Derby Corners

Over 4.5

-100

Under 4.5

-138

Southampton Corners

Over 5.5

-110

Under 5.5

-125

Most Corners

1

+143

X

+600

2

-137

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Derby vs Southampton Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

With a 48% chance of winning according to the latest odds, Southampton are favourites to prosper in this Championship encounter and they’re available at +110 with the bookies. Derby County are the +255 underdogs, while the draw can also be backed as an alternative.

For those wanting to reduce their risk, Southampton are -208 on the Draw No Bet market. This means a refund if the game ends level, with Derby being priced up at +143 with the same money back guarantee.

For those anticipating a low-scoring contest, Under 2.5 is the market leader for the Total Goals market. There are always two Both Teams to Score choices, with Yes available at -115 and No at -120.

No matter what Championship match is taking place, you will find hundreds of markets being offered. Peruse the various choices that are presented at the leading football betting sites.

Full-Time Result

1

+255

X

+225

2

+110

Half-Time Result

1

+300

X

+110

2

+165

Double Chance

1X

-156

12

-333

X2

-400

Draw No Bet

1

+143

2

-208

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.25

-105

2 Hcp -0.25

-128

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-149

Over 2.5

+114

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-115

No

-120

Adam Armstrong is the market leader at +420 to be the First Goalscorer. Should you think he will score the last goal, then a similar price can be found.

Adam Armstrong (Southampton)

First

+200

Anytime

+420

Damion Downs (Southampton)

First

+240

Anytime

+500

Ross Cameron Stewart (Southampton)

First

+240

Anytime

+500

Cameron Archer (Southampton)

First

+265

Anytime

+550

Patrick Agyemang (Derby)

First

+270

Anytime

+600

Carlton Morris (Derby)

First

+280

Anytime

+600

Leo Scienza (Southampton)

First

+310

Anytime

+650

Finn Azaz (Southampton)

First

+335

Anytime

+700

Ben Brereton (Derby)

First

+380

Anytime

+800

Andreas Weimann (Derby)

First

+410

Anytime

+850

Kayden Jackson (Derby)

First

+420

Anytime

+900

Ryan Fraser (Southampton)

First

+440

Anytime

+900

Corey Blackett-Taylor (Derby)

First

+480

Anytime

+1000

Tom Fellows (Southampton)

First

+500

Anytime

+1000

Shea Charles (Southampton)

First

+540

Anytime

+1100

Rhian Brewster (Derby)

First

+550

Anytime

+1200

Joe Ward (Derby)

First

+700

Anytime

+1400

Bobby Clark (Derby)

First

+700

Anytime

+1400

Caspar Jander (Southampton)

First

+700

Anytime

+1400

Mads Roerslev Rasmussen (Southampton)

First

+750

Anytime

+1600

Nathan Wood (Southampton)

First

+800

Anytime

+1700

David Ozoh (Derby)

First

+900

Anytime

+1800

Ebou Adams (Derby)

First

+900

Anytime

+1800

Elias Jelert (Southampton)

First

+900

Anytime

+1800

Ryan Manning (Southampton)

First

+1050

Anytime

+2200

Max Johnston (Derby)

First

+1100

Anytime

+2200

Adam Armstrong (Southampton)

Over 0.5

-204

Under 0.5

+128

Damion Downs (Southampton)

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-108

Ross Cameron Stewart (Southampton)

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-108

Cameron Archer (Southampton)

Over 0.5

-133

Under 0.5

-118

Carlton Morris (Derby)

Over 0.5

-127

Under 0.5

-125

Patrick Agyemang (Derby)

Over 0.5

-114

Under 0.5

-137

Leo Scienza (Southampton)

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-143

Finn Azaz (Southampton)

Over 0.5

+102

Under 0.5

-159

Ben Brereton (Derby)

Over 0.5

+123

Under 0.5

-200

Andreas Weimann (Derby)

Over 0.5

+128

Under 0.5

-204

Kayden Jackson (Derby)

Over 0.5

+128

Under 0.5

-204

Ryan Fraser (Southampton)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-238

Corey Blackett-Taylor (Derby)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-263

Tom Fellows (Southampton)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-286

Shea Charles (Southampton)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-345

Caspar Jander (Southampton)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-588

Nathan Wood (Southampton)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-588

Elias Jelert (Southampton)

Over 0.5

+330

Under 0.5

-714

Ryan Manning (Southampton)

Over 0.5

+380

Under 0.5

-909

Derby have not won at Pride Park in the past seven matches. John Eustace's men have managed four draws, three victories and three losses in the last 10 home matches, recording an average of 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00.

Southampton have six losses, three draws and one victory in the last 10 away matches, recording an average of 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20.

It was a 2-2 draw when Derby last played Southampton at Pride Park.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Derby Home Stats		3-4-3	2.10	1.10	1.00	2	8	4	6
Southampton Away Stats		1-3-6	3.10	0.90	2.20	6	4	7	3

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Derby vs Southampton Lineups & Team News

Be smart with your bets — check the Derby vs Southampton team news beforehand. We’ll provide the predicted and confirmed lineups for the Championship along with up-to-date injury news.

Derby County Team Page Southampton Team Page

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