Derby vs Southampton Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 04 Oct 2025

Championship Betting Preview: Derby vs Southampton

Derby host Southampton in this Championship fixture at Pride Park, with kick-off set for 10:00 on Saturday 4 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

We’re Expecting Rams to Cover the Line

Derby look a good bet to defeat Southampton and we can back the home team at -111 with a +0.25 goal start on the Asian Handicap. This means splitting the stake equally between 0 and +0.5 in the quest for a return.

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Derby Won Last H2H in Penalty Shoot-out

Derby County drew their last game 1-1 at home, with the action taking place at Pride Park against Charlton Athletic. John Eustace's men enjoyed 60% possession and managed three shots on target, while Matthew Clarke bagged the goal.

Southampton won their previous game 2-1. This was an away victory at Bramall Lane against Sheffield United. The South Coast side had five shots on goal and 52% possession, with Ross Stewart finding the net twice.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was a penalty shootout FA Cup away win (2-2 AET) for Derby when they last played Southampton. This was at St. Mary's.

Championship		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
14	Southampton	8	2	4	2	10	11	-1	10:11	10
20	Derby	8	1	4	3	10	14	-4	10:14	7

View Full Table

2 wins, 3 losses and 5 draws, averaging 1.1 goals from 2.5 shots on goal and 8.0 attempts. Derby have had 43.6% possession and 3.5 corners per game. On average, their opponents have scored 1.4 goals from 4.5 shots on goal and 12.3 attempts, while being awarded 5.3 corners.

Top scorer Carlton Morris has found the net 4 times, with Matthew Clarke, Ben Brereton Diaz, Andreas Weimann and Rhian Brewster getting 1 goals each. Patrick Agyemang is the top assists maker on 2.

Southampton have won 2, lost 4 and drawn 4, with an average of 13.0 attempts, 3.8 shots on goal and 1.1 goals. The Saints average 56.2% possession, 5.8 corners in their favour and 4.0 corners against, while 1.5 goals have been conceded from 3.3 shots on goal and 12.2 attempts.

Ross Stewart has scored 3, followed by Adam Armstrong and Ryan Manning with 2 goals apiece. Ryan Fraser and Mateus Fernandes have been the top assists providers with 2 in the last 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Derby predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Jacob Widell Zetterström (GK), Max Johnston, Dion Sanderson, Matt Clarke, Callum Elder, David Ozoh, Lewis Travis, Bobby Clark, Carlton Morris, Ben Brereton Díaz, Patrick Agyemang.

Southampton predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Alex McCarthy (GK), Ronnie Edwards, Nathan Wood, Joshua Quarshie, Ryan Manning, Caspar Jander, Shea Charles, Ryan Fraser, Jay Robinson, Adam Armstrong, Cameron Archer.

Derby vs Southampton Prediction & Betting Tips

Explore our top Derby vs Southampton betting tips, including a match prediction, correct score forecast, expected corners bet, player performance props and a bet builder ready to use.

Match Prediction

We’ll back Derby +0.25 for this Championship game, with odds of -111 available. We have a feeling that they can perform well and the Asian Handicap line looks more than fair for this outcome.

The Championship tipsters at Sportsgambler.com always have a strong handle on team news. A form guide is also utilised for our betting verdict along with checking out the numbers that are going to help inform our final football picks.

Key Derby vs Southampton league stats:

• The +0.25 line has been covered by Derby in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Derby in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Derby in 2 consecutive games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Southampton in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Southampton in 6 of their last 8 games.

Derby +0.25 Probability

According to the top betting sites, our pick has a 52.6% chance of landing a return. However, our experts have this number between 55-60% based on their in-depth research. It’s the reason why we are recommending this wager.

If you’re looking for a good alternative to backing Derby on the Asian Handicap, then consider the Winning Margin market. You can choose from a range of fixed intervals and odds.

Check our complete list of betting promo codes, free bet deals and the latest welcome bonuses before wagering.

Our Match Prediction

Derby Asian Hcp +0.25 @ -111 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Derby 1 - 0 Southampton

Derby are available to back at +650 to secure a 1-0 victory. This is a risky but potentially more rewarding bet, with this correct score option providing appeal.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Carlton Morris to Score +275

Carlton Morris (Derby) has scored four goals in his past eight Championship games. We’ll take a chance at +275 for this Anytime Goalscorer wager as the betting odds look really appealing.

Latest Carlton Morris Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+275

First

+575

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Corners Prediction

Southampton To Have Most Corners -128

Southampton have been awarded the most corners in eight consecutive games. The most corners could go to Southampton and you can get an attractive -128.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Derby

Total

8.80 3.50 5.30

Home

9.30 5.00 4.30

Away

8.60 2.70 5.90

Southampton

Total

9.80 5.80 4.00

Home

10.90 4.20 6.70

Away

8.40 4.50 3.90

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

+104

Under 10.5

-149

Derby Corners

Over 4.5

-100

Under 4.5

-138

Southampton Corners

Over 5.5

-110

Under 5.5

-125

Most Corners

1

+135

X

+650

2

-132

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Derby vs Southampton Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Bookies Giving Southampton Plenty of Respect

With a 47% chance of winning according to the latest odds, Southampton are favourites to prosper in this Championship encounter and they’re available at +115 with the bookies. Derby County are the +245 underdogs, while the draw can also be backed as an alternative.

For those wanting to reduce their risk, Southampton are -200 on the Draw No Bet market. This means a refund if the game ends level, with Derby being priced up at +135 with the same money back guarantee.

For those anticipating a low-scoring contest, Under 2.5 is the market leader for the Total Goals market. There are always two Both Teams to Score choices, with Yes available at -116 and No at -118.

No matter what Championship match is taking place, you will find hundreds of markets being offered. Peruse the various choices that are presented at the leading football betting sites.

Full-Time Result

1

+245

X

+220

2

+115

Half-Time Result

1

+295

X

+110

2

+170

Double Chance

1X

-161

12

-333

X2

-385

Draw No Bet

1

+135

2

-200

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.25

-111

2 Hcp -0.25

-125

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-147

Over 2.5

+114

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-116

No

-118

Adam Armstrong Favourite to Score the First Goal

Adam Armstrong is the market leader at +430 to be the First Goalscorer. Should you think he will score the last goal, then a similar price can be found.

Adam Armstrong (Southampton)

First

+195

Anytime

+430

Ross Cameron Stewart (Southampton)

First

+240

Anytime

+480

Damion Downs (Southampton)

First

+250

Anytime

+525

Cameron Archer (Southampton)

First

+275

Anytime

+550

Carlton Morris (Derby)

First

+275

Anytime

+575

Patrick Agyemang (Derby)

First

+290

Anytime

+600

Leo Scienza (Southampton)

First

+300

Anytime

+600

Finn Azaz (Southampton)

First

+340

Anytime

+700

Ben Brereton (Derby)

First

+375

Anytime

+800

Andreas Weimann (Derby)

First

+390

Anytime

+850

Ryan Fraser (Southampton)

First

+420

Anytime

+850

Kayden Jackson (Derby)

First

+420

Anytime

+900

Corey Blackett-Taylor (Derby)

First

+460

Anytime

+1000

Tom Fellows (Southampton)

First

+510

Anytime

+1050

Shea Charles (Southampton)

First

+540

Anytime

+1200

Rhian Brewster (Derby)

First

+550

Anytime

+1200

Caspar Jander (Southampton)

First

+650

Anytime

+1400

Bobby Clark (Derby)

First

+700

Anytime

+1400

Joe Ward (Derby)

First

+750

Anytime

+1400

Mads Roerslev Rasmussen (Southampton)

First

+750

Anytime

+1600

Nathan Wood (Southampton)

First

+850

Anytime

+1700

David Ozoh (Derby)

First

+850

Anytime

+1900

Ebou Adams (Derby)

First

+850

Anytime

+1900

Elias Jelert (Southampton)

First

+850

Anytime

+1900

Ryan Manning (Southampton)

First

+1050

Anytime

+2000

Derby Looking to Turn a Corner on Home Soil

Derby have not won at Pride Park in the past seven matches. John Eustace's men have managed four draws, three victories and three losses in the last 10 home matches, recording an average of 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00.

Southampton have six losses, three draws and one victory in the last 10 away matches, recording an average of 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20.

It was a 2-2 draw when Derby last played Southampton at Pride Park.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Derby Home Stats		3-4-3	2.10	1.10	1.00	2	8	4	6
Southampton Away Stats		1-3-6	3.10	0.90	2.20	6	4	7	3

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Derby vs Southampton Lineups & Team News

Be smart with your bets — check the Derby vs Southampton team news beforehand. We’ll provide the predicted and confirmed lineups for the Championship along with up-to-date injury news.

Derby County Team Page Southampton Team Page