Guadalajara vs Toluca Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 20 Sep 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Guadalajara vs Toluca

Guadalajara host Toluca in this Liga MX encounter at Estadio Akron, with kick-off set for 21:07 on Saturday 20 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

We’re Expecting Toluca to Cover the Line

Toluca +0.25 at -147 on the Asian Handicap could be the bet to have. We’re expecting them to avoid defeat against Guadalajara, with our stake divided equally between 0 and +0.5 in the hope the away team can land a win.

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Toluca Beat Chivas Last Time Out

Guadalajara faced Tigres UANL at home when last in action. It was a 0-0 draw at Estadio Akron. They were dominated in possession and had just 38% of the ball, with no shots on target.

Deportivo Toluca beat Club Puebla in their previous Liga MX match, making it back-to-back league wins. It was a 3-1 home victory at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Los Diablos Rojos enjoyed 64% possession and managed five shots on goal, while Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo and Oswaldo Virgen were all on target.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca boast an unbeaten record in the past three games with Guadalajara. In their last encounter, Toluca enjoyed a 2-1 victory when hosting at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The previous 10 H2H games have featured five draws, three victories for Guadalajara and two wins for Toluca.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
4	Toluca	8	5	1	2	19	11	8	19:11	16
11	Guadalajara	8	2	2	4	11	13	-2	11:13	8

View Full Table

3 wins, 4 losses and 3 draws, averaging 1.3 goals from 4.2 shots on goal and 10.9 attempts. Chivas have had 55.7% possession and 6.2 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 1.4 goals from 3.9 shots on goal and 7.5 attempts, while their opponents have been awarded 4.5 corners.

Top goalscorer Armando Gonzalez has found the net 4 times, Roberto Alvarado 2, with Diego Campillo and two other players on 1. Erick Gutierrez and Miguel Gomez are the top assists makers with 2.

Deportivo Toluca have 6 victories, 2 defeats and 2 draws, averaging 11.1 attempts, 4.6 shots on goal and 2.1 goals. They average 52.0% possession, 4.8 corners in their favour and 3.5 corners against, while 1.1 goals have been conceded from 2.8 shots on goal and 7.4 attempts.

Robert Morales and Helinho have 3 and they’re top of the team’s scoring charts, with Jesus Gallardo on 2. Alexis Vega has had 5 assists in the previous 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Guadalajara predicted lineup (3-4-3): José Raúl Rangel (GK), Miguel Tapias, Diego Campillo, Luis Francisco Romo, Richard Ledezma, Érick Gutiérrez, Fernando González, Bryan González, Efrain Álvarez, Armando González, Cade Cowell.

Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Diego Barbosa, Federico Pereira, Bruno Méndez, Jesús Gallardo, Marcel Ruíz, Franco Romero, Jesús Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Ernesto Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

Guadalajara vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips

Step into Guadalajara vs Toluca with confidence as we bring you our main match prediction, projected scoreline, key corners betting angle, best player prop picks and a custom-built bet builder.

Match Prediction

When Toluca kick off this Liga MX match, we will wager them at -147 on the Asian Handicap +0.25. Avoiding defeat seems well within their capability and a win could be on the cards.

The Liga MX injury and suspension data can be utilised to provide expert football betting tips. You can also identify that a stats-led approach is adopted by considering the most important stats.

Key Guadalajara vs Toluca league stats:

• The +0.25 line has been covered by Toluca in 17 of their last 20 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Toluca in 8 of their last 10 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Toluca in 2 consecutive games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Guadalajara in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Guadalajara in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Guadalajara in 3 consecutive games at home.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Guadalajara in 3 consecutive games against Toluca.

Toluca +0.25 Probability

The latest betting odds imply that our pick has a 59.5% prospect of winning. However, our experts have this number between 65-70% based on their in-depth research. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

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Our Match Prediction

Toluca Asian Hcp +0.25 @ -147 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Guadalajara 1 - 2 Toluca

We’ve picked out a correct score of 2-1 being landed by Toluca. You can secure odds of +800 and this provides an alternative way to place a wager.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Alexis Vega Over 0.5 Shots On Target -137

Alexis Vega (Toluca) is available at -137 to finish with one or more shots on goal. In conclusion, we think that the odds offer plenty of appeal when it comes to betting on Shots on Target.

Latest Alexis Vega Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+210

First

+600

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-115

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Jesús Gallardo to Score +650

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca) has managed two goals in his past eight Liga MX matches. We’ll throw a dart at +650 for this Anytime Goalscorer wager as the betting odds look pretty attractive.

Latest Jesús Gallardo Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+650

First

+1800

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-500

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Corners Prediction

Toluca Over 4.5 Corners -161

Toluca have had over 4.5 corners in two consecutive games, with Guadalajara conceding over 4.5 corners in the past two matches. We think it’s possible that Toluca will cover the Team Corners line and there are odds of -161 available.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Guadalajara

Total

10.70 6.20 4.50

Home

11.10 5.80 5.30

Away

11.10 6.20 4.90

Toluca

Total

8.30 4.80 3.50

Home

7.50 4.30 3.20

Away

9.80 4.70 5.10

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-141

Under 9.5

-106

Guadalajara Corners

Over 4.5

-125

Under 4.5

-110

Toluca Corners

Over 4.5

-110

Under 4.5

-125

Most Corners

1

+117

X

+600

2

-111

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Guadalajara vs Toluca Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Betting Sites Predicting a Close Encounter

If you want to back Deportivo Toluca to win this Liga MX clash, then the bookies have priced them up at +150 on the 1x2 market. Guadalajara are available at betting odds of +145 and the draw is +270.

For those wanting to reduce their risk, Guadalajara are -119 on the Draw No Bet market. This means a refund if the game ends level, with Toluca being priced up at -114 with the same money back guarantee.

If you’re looking to bet on more than two goals, then Over 2.5 has the lowest price. The Yes pick in the Both Teams to Score market is considered to be the most likely result and it’s trading at -189.

For those wanting hundreds of football markets, it’s great that the best sports betting sites are on hand to offer this service. When it comes to every Liga MX match, go for the pick which stands out the most.

Full-Time Result

1

+145

X

+270

2

+150

Half-Time Result

1

+190

X

+135

2

+190

Double Chance

1X

-227

12

-435

X2

-217

Draw No Bet

1

-119

2

-114

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.25

+117

2 Hcp +0.25

-147

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+118

Over 2.5

-161

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-189

No

+132

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" Favourite to Find the Net First

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is favourite to be First Goalscorer at +420, while you can get similar odds if you want him to score the last goal.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

+150

Anytime

+420

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+210

Anytime

+600

Alan Pulido (Guadalajara)

First

+210

Anytime

+600

Javier Hernández (Guadalajara)

First

+220

Anytime

+600

Roberto Alvarado (Guadalajara)

First

+250

Anytime

+750

Armando González (Guadalajara)

First

+280

Anytime

+750

Cade Cowell (Guadalajara)

First

+310

Anytime

+900

Isaác Brizuela (Guadalajara)

First

+350

Anytime

+1000

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1050

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1100

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+480

Anytime

+1300

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+575

Anytime

+1500

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1600

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1600

Bryan Gonzalez (Guadalajara)

First

+650

Anytime

+1800

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+1800

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+1800

Érick Gutiérrez (Guadalajara)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2000

Gilberto Sepulveda (Guadalajara)

First

+750

Anytime

+2000

Richard Ledezma (Guadalajara)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Luis Olivas (Guadalajara)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-303

Under 0.5

+160

Alan Pulido (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

-139

Under 0.5

-111

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-115

Armando González (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-115

Javier Hernández (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

-130

Under 0.5

-120

Cade Cowell (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+115

Under 0.5

-182

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+123

Under 0.5

-217

Isaác Brizuela (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-222

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-250

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-345

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-385

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+235

Under 0.5

-435

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-500

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-500

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-500

Bryan Gonzalez (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-556

Érick Gutiérrez (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-588

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-588

Luis Olivas (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+330

Under 0.5

-769

Gilberto Sepulveda (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+340

Under 0.5

-769

Richard Ledezma (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+370

Under 0.5

-909

Guadalajara Hoping to Hit the Right Notes on Home Soil

Guadalajara have gone without a win at Estadio Akron in the last three games. Guadalajara have finished with five wins, three losses and two draws in the last 10 home matches, scoring an average of 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90.

Toluca have six victories, two draws and two defeats in the last 10 away matches, netting an average of 1.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00.

The most recent Estadio Akron meeting saw Guadalajara draw 0-0 with Toluca. We’ve seen the previous 8 H2H games at Estadio Akron include four Guadalajara triumphs, three draws and one Toluca win.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Guadalajara Home Stats		5-2-3	2.20	1.30	0.90	5	5	4	6
Toluca Away Stats		6-2-2	2.90	1.90	1.00	5	5	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Guadalajara vs Toluca Lineups & Team News

Before making your bets, take a look at the Chivas vs Toluca team news. Receive the predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups from us, plus the most recent injury updates.

Guadalajara Team Page Toluca Team Page