Guadalajara vs Toluca Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 20 Sep 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Guadalajara vs Toluca

Guadalajara host Toluca in this Liga MX encounter at Estadio Akron, with kick-off set for 21:07 on Saturday 20 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

We’re Expecting Toluca to Cover the Line

Toluca +0.25 at -147 on the Asian Handicap could be the bet to have. We’re expecting them to avoid defeat against Guadalajara, with our stake divided equally between 0 and +0.5 in the hope the away team can land a win.

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Toluca Beat Chivas Last Time Out

Guadalajara faced Tigres UANL at home when last in action. It was a 0-0 draw at Estadio Akron. They were dominated in possession and had just 38% of the ball, with no shots on target.

Deportivo Toluca beat Club Puebla in their previous Liga MX match, making it back-to-back league wins. It was a 3-1 home victory at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Los Diablos Rojos enjoyed 64% possession and managed five shots on goal, while Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo and Oswaldo Virgen were all on target.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca boast an unbeaten record in the past three games with Guadalajara. In their last encounter, Toluca enjoyed a 2-1 victory when hosting at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The previous 10 H2H games have featured five draws, three victories for Guadalajara and two wins for Toluca.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
2	Toluca	16	10	4	2	41	18	23	41:18	34
6	Guadalajara	16	8	2	6	25	20	5	25:20	26

View Full Table

3 wins, 4 losses and 3 draws, averaging 1.3 goals from 4.2 shots on goal and 10.9 attempts. Chivas have had 55.7% possession and 6.2 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 1.4 goals from 3.9 shots on goal and 7.5 attempts, while their opponents have been awarded 4.5 corners.

Top goalscorer Armando Gonzalez has found the net 4 times, Roberto Alvarado 2, with Diego Campillo and two other players on 1. Erick Gutierrez and Miguel Gomez are the top assists makers with 2.

Deportivo Toluca have 6 victories, 2 defeats and 2 draws, averaging 11.1 attempts, 4.6 shots on goal and 2.1 goals. They average 52.0% possession, 4.8 corners in their favour and 3.5 corners against, while 1.1 goals have been conceded from 2.8 shots on goal and 7.4 attempts.

Robert Morales and Helinho have 3 and they’re top of the team’s scoring charts, with Jesus Gallardo on 2. Alexis Vega has had 5 assists in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Guadalajara confirmed lineup (5-3-2): Jose Rangel (GK), Diego Campillo, Luis Romo, Miguel Tapias, Jose Castillo, Bryan Gonzalez, Efrain Alvarez, Fernando Gonzalez, Omar Govea, Santiago Sandoval, Armando Gonzalez.

Toluca confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Luis Garcia (GK), Diego Barbosa, Bruno Mendez, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo, Franco Romero, Marcel Ruiz, Jesus Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

Guadalajara vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips

Step into Guadalajara vs Toluca with confidence as we bring you our main match prediction, projected scoreline, key corners betting angle, best player prop picks and a custom-built bet builder.

Match Prediction

When Toluca kick off this Liga MX match, we will wager them at -147 on the Asian Handicap +0.25. Avoiding defeat seems well within their capability and a win could be on the cards.

The Liga MX injury and suspension data can be utilised to provide expert football betting tips. You can also identify that a stats-led approach is adopted by considering the most important stats.

Key Guadalajara vs Toluca league stats:

• The +0.25 line has been covered by Toluca in 17 of their last 20 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Toluca in 8 of their last 10 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Toluca in 2 consecutive games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Guadalajara in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Guadalajara in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Guadalajara in 3 consecutive games at home.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Guadalajara in 3 consecutive games against Toluca.

Toluca +0.25 Probability

The latest betting odds imply that our pick has a 59.5% prospect of winning. However, our experts have this number between 65-70% based on their in-depth research. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

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Our Match Prediction

Toluca Asian Hcp +0.25 @ -147 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Guadalajara 1 - 2 Toluca

We’ve picked out a correct score of 2-1 being landed by Toluca. You can secure odds of +750 and this provides an alternative way to place a wager.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Alexis Vega Over 0.5 Shots On Target -137

Alexis Vega (Toluca) is available at -137 to finish with one or more shots on goal. In conclusion, we think that the odds offer plenty of appeal when it comes to betting on Shots on Target.

Latest Alexis Vega Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+210

First

+575

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-118

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Jesús Gallardo to Score +650

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca) has managed two goals in his past eight Liga MX matches. We’ll throw a dart at +650 for this Anytime Goalscorer wager as the betting odds look pretty attractive.

Latest Jesús Gallardo Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+600

First

+1800

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-588

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Corners Prediction

Toluca Over 4.5 Corners -161

Toluca have had over 4.5 corners in two consecutive games, with Guadalajara conceding over 4.5 corners in the past two matches. We think it’s possible that Toluca will cover the Team Corners line and there are odds of -161 available.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Guadalajara

Total

10.70 6.20 4.50

Home

11.10 5.80 5.30

Away

11.10 6.20 4.90

Toluca

Total

8.30 4.80 3.50

Home

7.50 4.30 3.20

Away

9.80 4.70 5.10

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-130

Under 9.5

-114

Guadalajara Corners

Over 4.5

-125

Under 4.5

-110

Toluca Corners

Over 4.5

-110

Under 4.5

-125

Most Corners

1

+105

X

+600

2

-100

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Guadalajara vs Toluca Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Betting Sites Predicting a Close Encounter

For this Liga MX encounter, the bookmakers have Deportivo Toluca as the +128 favourites to win. This therefore implies that they have a 44% chance of triumphing. If you want to wager on the underdog, Guadalajara have been priced up at +180.

For those wanting to reduce their risk, Toluca are -147 on the Draw No Bet market. This means a refund if the game ends level, with Guadalajara being priced up at +107 with the same money back guarantee.

If you’re looking to bet on more than two goals, then Over 2.5 has the lowest price. The Yes pick in the Both Teams to Score market is considered to be the most likely result and it’s trading at -167.

For those wanting hundreds of football markets, it’s great that the best sports betting sites are on hand to offer this service. When it comes to every Liga MX match, go for the pick which stands out the most.

Full-Time Result

1

+180

X

+255

2

+128

Half-Time Result

1

+225

X

+125

2

+175

Double Chance

1X

-189

12

-417

X2

-286

Draw No Bet

1

+107

2

-147

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.25

-125

2 Hcp -0.25

-100

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+102

Over 2.5

-139

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-167

No

+118

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" Favourite to Find the Net First

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is favourite to be First Goalscorer at +400, while you can get similar odds if you want him to score the last goal.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

+150

Anytime

+400

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+210

Anytime

+575

Alan Pulido (Guadalajara)

First

+230

Anytime

+650

Javier Hernández (Guadalajara)

First

+240

Anytime

+600

Roberto Alvarado (Guadalajara)

First

+250

Anytime

+750

Armando González (Guadalajara)

First

+310

Anytime

+800

Cade Cowell (Guadalajara)

First

+330

Anytime

+900

Isaác Brizuela (Guadalajara)

First

+380

Anytime

+1000

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+390

Anytime

+1050

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+410

Anytime

+1050

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+480

Anytime

+1300

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+575

Anytime

+1500

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1600

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1600

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Bryan Gonzalez (Guadalajara)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

Érick Gutiérrez (Guadalajara)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Gilberto Sepulveda (Guadalajara)

First

+800

Anytime

+2000

Richard Ledezma (Guadalajara)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Luis Olivas (Guadalajara)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-294

Under 0.5

+155

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-118

Armando González (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-127

Alan Pulido (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-122

Javier Hernández (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

-118

Under 0.5

-133

Cade Cowell (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+125

Under 0.5

-200

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+128

Under 0.5

-227

Isaác Brizuela (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-238

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-263

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-345

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-385

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+235

Under 0.5

-435

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-588

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-588

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-556

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-714

Bryan Gonzalez (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-769

Érick Gutiérrez (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-625

Luis Olivas (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+340

Under 0.5

-769

Gilberto Sepulveda (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+350

Under 0.5

-769

Richard Ledezma (Guadalajara)

Over 0.5

+370

Under 0.5

-909

Guadalajara Hoping to Hit the Right Notes on Home Soil

Guadalajara have gone without a win at Estadio Akron in the last three games. Guadalajara have finished with five wins, three losses and two draws in the last 10 home matches, scoring an average of 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90.

Toluca have six victories, two draws and two defeats in the last 10 away matches, netting an average of 1.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00.

The most recent Estadio Akron meeting saw Guadalajara draw 0-0 with Toluca. We’ve seen the previous 8 H2H games at Estadio Akron include four Guadalajara triumphs, three draws and one Toluca win.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Guadalajara Home Stats		5-2-3	2.20	1.30	0.90	5	5	4	6
Toluca Away Stats		6-2-2	2.90	1.90	1.00	5	5	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Guadalajara vs Toluca Lineups & Team News

Before making your bets, take a look at the Chivas vs Toluca team news. Receive the predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups from us, plus the most recent injury updates.

Guadalajara Team Page Toluca Team Page