León vs Toluca Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 04 Oct 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: León vs Toluca

León host Toluca in this Liga MX game at Estadio Nou Camp, with kick-off set for 21:00 on Saturday 4 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Toluca to Outscore León

Toluca look a good wager to defeat León on the Full-Time Result market. You can secure odds of -122 that the visitors bag a win and this looks like a value proposition based on the information available.

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Last H2H Encounter Ended in a 3-3 Draw

Club León were beaten in their last game. On their travels, they suffered a 2-0 loss against Juárez at Estadio Benito Juarez. Eduardo Berizzo's side had 44% possession and one shot on target.

Deportivo Toluca beat Mazatlán in their previous game, making it five consecutive wins. It was a 3-1 home triumph at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Los Diablos Rojos had 50% possession and recorded four shots on goal, while Hector Herrera, Bruno Mendez and Paulinho were all on target.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have avoided defeat against León in the past three meetings, with their last encounter ending in a 3-3 draw at Estadio Nou Camp. The previous 10 H2H games have resulted in six draws and two wins apiece.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Toluca	11	8	1	2	31	14	17	31:14	25
11	León	11	3	3	5	10	18	-8	10:18	12

View Full Table

Club León have 3 wins, 4 losses and 3 draws, averaging 1.0 goals from 3.2 shots on goal and 8.5 attempts. La Fiera have averaged 48.8% possession and 4.0 corners per match, with the opposition scoring 1.7 goals from 6.0 shots on goal, 12.9 attempts and 5.5 corners.

Ismael Diaz leads the way with 5 goals, James Rodriguez has 2, with Fernando Beltran and Daniel Arcila scoring 1. The top assist makers are James Rodriguez, Salvador Reyes and Ismael Diaz, all of whom have 1 on the board.

Deportivo Toluca have won 7, lost 2 and drawn 1, with an average of 2.8 goals from 5.6 shots on goal and 11.2 attempts. Antonio Mohamed's team have averaged 51.9% possession, 5.2 corners taken and 3.9 corners against, while conceding 1.3 goals from 3.4 shots on goal and 8.6 attempts.

The top scorers have been Paulinho on 7, followed by Jesus Gallardo and Robert Morales with 3. Alexis Vega has been the top assist maker with 6 in the last 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

León predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Oscar Damián García (GK), Sebastián Santos, Valentín Gauthier, Paul Bellón, Salvador Reyes, Nicolás Fonseca, Rodrigo Echeverria, Miguel Rodríguez, James Rodriguez, Ismael Díaz, José Alfonso Alvarado.

Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Santiago Simón, Mauricio André Isais, Bruno Méndez, Antonio Briseño, Franco Romero, Marcel Ruíz, Jesús Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Ernesto Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

León vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips

We’ve lined up expert León vs Toluca betting tips, from our match prediction and correct score call to corners betting insight, best player prop picks and bet builder advice. Read on for the full breakdown.

Match Prediction

We think Toluca stand a strong chance of victory when they compete in this Liga MX game, with our pick providing lots of value. Secure the odds of -122 that the visitors are able to get the job done.

The first step involves analysing the form and also getting an idea of the injury situation before making any football picks. Then it’s a case of consulting the latest Liga MX stats and seeing if they can inform our opinion.

Key León vs Toluca league stats:

• Toluca have won 5 consecutive games.
• Toluca have won 7 of their last 10 games.
• Toluca have won 13 of their last 20 games.
• León have lost 12 of their last 20 games.

Toluca to Win Probability

The latest odds at the best betting sites suggest our pick carries a 54.9% chance of winning. However, our tipsters research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.

If you anticipate that Toluca can start the game quickly, then we would point you in the direction of the Double Result market. You can bet them to be in front at the break and full-time whistle.

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Our Match Prediction

Toluca To Win @ -122 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

León 0 - 1 Toluca

There could be merit in backing Toluca to win 1-0. Odds of +800 are available about a correct score bet where a nice potential return is on the cards.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Ismael Díaz Over 0.5 Shots On Target -132

Ismael Díaz (León) can be wagered to record a minimum of one shot on goal at -132. He looks like an attractive pick and we’ll have a bet on this Shots on Target outcome as the betting odds stand out.

Latest Ismael Díaz Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+230

First

+650

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-132

Under 0.5

-122

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Nicolas Castro to Score +320

Nicolas Castro (Toluca) has racked up two goals in his past five Liga MX matches. He looks like a value bet to find the net and you’re able to back this Anytime Goalscorer pick at odds of +320.

Latest Nicolas Castro Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+320

First

+950

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+102

Under 0.5

-159

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Corners Prediction

Toluca Over 4.5 Corners -150

Toluca have had over 4.5 corners in five consecutive matches, with León conceding over 4.5 corners in the previous four home games. We think this presents a convincing argument and we’ll bet on Toluca to cover the Team Corners line which is on offer at odds of -150.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

León

Total

9.50 4.00 5.50

Home

8.60 4.10 4.50

Away

8.90 4.30 4.60

Toluca

Total

9.10 5.20 3.90

Home

8.10 4.90 3.20

Away

10.20 4.70 5.50

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-109

Under 9.5

-137

León Corners

Over 3.5

-150

Under 3.5

+110

Toluca Corners

Over 4.5

-163

Under 4.5

+120

Most Corners

1

+170

X

+600

2

-159

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León vs Toluca Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Toluca Trading at Shorter Odds Than León

Deportivo Toluca are the -122 favourites on the Full-Time Result. That means a 55% chance of winning this Liga MX encounter according to the latest betting odds. Club León are an outside chance to get the job done and you can now back them at +265.

If you want to back Toluca to win, then you can take the Asian Handicap -0.5 option. This selection is priced at -119, although León +0.5 is -104 and the latter puts the draw on your side.

Over 2.5 Goals is trading at a shorter price than Under 2.5 Goals right now. BTTS wagering is popular and you can back Yes at -192 on the Both Teams to Score market.

The top football betting sites provide hundreds of markets for the latest Liga MX matches. Be sure to peruse all of the available options before going ahead with your preferred wager.

Full-Time Result

1

+265

X

+295

2

-122

Half-Time Result

1

+285

X

+145

2

+125

Double Chance

1X

-119

12

-500

X2

-455

Draw No Bet

1

+170

2

-244

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.5

-104

2 Hcp -0.5

-119

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+135

Over 2.5

-185

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-192

No

+132

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" Top of First Goalscorer List

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is priced at +350 when it comes to First Goalscorer. He’s the favourite and also available at odds of +115 to find the net anytime.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

+115

Anytime

+350

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+170

Anytime

+500

Ismael Díaz (León)

First

+230

Anytime

+650

Rogelio Funes Mori (León)

First

+240

Anytime

+700

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+320

Anytime

+950

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+340

Anytime

+950

James Rodríguez (León)

First

+370

Anytime

+1100

Ettson Ayon (León)

First

+400

Anytime

+1150

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+420

Anytime

+1150

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+480

Anytime

+1200

Jordi Cortizo de la Piedra (León)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1600

Rodrigo Echeverría (León)

First

+525

Anytime

+1600

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1400

Ángel Estrada (León)

First

+525

Anytime

+1500

Héctor Uribe (León)

First

+525

Anytime

+1500

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+540

Anytime

+1600

Fernando Beltrán (León)

First

+575

Anytime

+1600

Carlos Cisneros (León)

First

+575

Anytime

+1700

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1700

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1700

Sebastian Santos (León)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Nicolás Fonseca (León)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-233

Under 0.5

+148

Rogelio Funes Mori (León)

Over 0.5

-141

Under 0.5

-123

Ismael Díaz (León)

Over 0.5

-132

Under 0.5

-122

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

-123

Under 1.5

-141

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-114

Under 0.5

-154

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+102

Under 0.5

-159

Ettson Ayon (León)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-244

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+143

Under 0.5

-233

James Rodríguez (León)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-233

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-294

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-333

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-357

Jordi Cortizo de la Piedra (León)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-333

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-345

Rodrigo Echeverría (León)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-357

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-357

Héctor Uribe (León)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-400

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-435

Fernando Beltrán (León)

Over 0.5

+230

Under 0.5

-417

Sebastian Santos (León)

Over 0.5

+235

Under 0.5

-526

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-588

León Difficult to Beat on Home Soil

León have not lost at Estadio Nou Camp in the past three matches. Eduardo Berizzo's side have finished with five defeats, three wins and two draws in the past 10 home matches, netting an average of 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40.

Toluca have managed six victories, two draws and two losses in the last 10 away matches, recording an average of 1.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00.

When the sides last met at Estadio Nou Camp, León drew 3-3 with Toluca. The past 8 H2H matches at Estadio Nou Camp have seen four León triumphs, one Toluca win and three draws.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
León Home Stats		3-2-5	2.60	1.20	1.40	5	5	5	5
Toluca Away Stats		6-2-2	2.90	1.90	1.00	5	5	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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León vs Toluca Lineups & Team News

Always review the León vs Toluca team news before locking in your bets. We’ll keep you posted with predicted and confirmed lineups for the Liga MX and all current injury news.

León Team Page Toluca Team Page