León vs Toluca Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 04 Oct 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: León vs Toluca

León host Toluca in this Liga MX game at Estadio Nou Camp, with kick-off set for 21:00 on Saturday 4 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Toluca look a good wager to defeat León on the Full-Time Result market. You can secure odds of -122 that the visitors bag a win and this looks like a value proposition based on the information available.

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Club León were beaten in their last game. On their travels, they suffered a 2-0 loss against Juárez at Estadio Benito Juarez. Eduardo Berizzo's side had 44% possession and one shot on target.

Deportivo Toluca beat Mazatlán in their previous game, making it five consecutive wins. It was a 3-1 home triumph at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Los Diablos Rojos had 50% possession and recorded four shots on goal, while Hector Herrera, Bruno Mendez and Paulinho were all on target.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have avoided defeat against León in the past three meetings, with their last encounter ending in a 3-3 draw at Estadio Nou Camp. The previous 10 H2H games have resulted in six draws and two wins apiece.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Toluca	17	11	4	2	43	18	25	43:18	37
17	León	17	3	4	10	14	31	-17	14:31	13

View Full Table

Club León have 3 wins, 4 losses and 3 draws, averaging 1.0 goals from 3.2 shots on goal and 8.5 attempts. La Fiera have averaged 48.8% possession and 4.0 corners per match, with the opposition scoring 1.7 goals from 6.0 shots on goal, 12.9 attempts and 5.5 corners.

Ismael Diaz leads the way with 5 goals, James Rodriguez has 2, with Fernando Beltran and Daniel Arcila scoring 1. The top assist makers are James Rodriguez, Salvador Reyes and Ismael Diaz, all of whom have 1 on the board.

Deportivo Toluca have won 7, lost 2 and drawn 1, with an average of 2.8 goals from 5.6 shots on goal and 11.2 attempts. Antonio Mohamed's team have averaged 51.9% possession, 5.2 corners taken and 3.9 corners against, while conceding 1.3 goals from 3.4 shots on goal and 8.6 attempts.

The top scorers have been Paulinho on 7, followed by Jesus Gallardo and Robert Morales with 3. Alexis Vega has been the top assist maker with 6 in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

León confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Oscar Jimenez (GK), Valentin Gauthier, Oscar Villa, Paul Bellon, Rodrigo Echeverria, Fernando Beltran, Jordi Cortizo, Jose David Ramirez, James Rodriguez, Jose Alvarado, Rogelio Funes Mori.

Toluca confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Luis Garcia (GK), Santiago Simon, Bruno Mendez, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo, Franco Romero, Helinho, Jesus Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

León vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips

We’ve lined up expert León vs Toluca betting tips, from our match prediction and correct score call to corners betting insight, best player prop picks and bet builder advice. Read on for the full breakdown.

Match Prediction

We think Toluca stand a strong chance of victory when they compete in this Liga MX game, with our pick providing lots of value. Secure the odds of -122 that the visitors are able to get the job done.

The first step involves analysing the form and also getting an idea of the injury situation before making any football picks. Then it’s a case of consulting the latest Liga MX stats and seeing if they can inform our opinion.

Key León vs Toluca league stats:

• Toluca have won 5 consecutive games.
• Toluca have won 7 of their last 10 games.
• Toluca have won 13 of their last 20 games.
• León have lost 12 of their last 20 games.

The latest odds at the best betting sites suggest our pick carries a 54.9% chance of winning. However, our tipsters research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.

If you anticipate that Toluca can start the game quickly, then we would point you in the direction of the Double Result market. You can bet them to be in front at the break and full-time whistle.

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Our Match Prediction

Toluca To Win @ -122 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

León 0 - 1 Toluca

There could be merit in backing Toluca to win 1-0. Odds of +800 are available about a correct score bet where a nice potential return is on the cards.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Ismael Díaz Over 0.5 Shots On Target -132

Ismael Díaz (León) can be wagered to record a minimum of one shot on goal at -132. He looks like an attractive pick and we’ll have a bet on this Shots on Target outcome as the betting odds stand out.

Latest Ismael Díaz Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+250

First

+750

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-125

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Nicolas Castro to Score +320

Nicolas Castro (Toluca) has racked up two goals in his past five Liga MX matches. He looks like a value bet to find the net and you’re able to back this Anytime Goalscorer pick at odds of +320.

Latest Nicolas Castro Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+310

First

+900

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-100

Under 0.5

-159

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Corners Prediction

Toluca Over 4.5 Corners -150

Toluca have had over 4.5 corners in five consecutive matches, with León conceding over 4.5 corners in the previous four home games. We think this presents a convincing argument and we’ll bet on Toluca to cover the Team Corners line which is on offer at odds of -150.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

León

Total

9.50 4.00 5.50

Home

8.60 4.10 4.50

Away

8.90 4.30 4.60

Toluca

Total

9.10 5.20 3.90

Home

8.10 4.90 3.20

Away

10.20 4.70 5.50

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-111

Under 9.5

-135

León Corners

Over 3.5

-163

Under 3.5

+120

Toluca Corners

Over 5.5

+110

Under 5.5

-150

Most Corners

1

+195

X

+600

2

-185

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León vs Toluca Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Deportivo Toluca are the -147 favourites on the Full-Time Result. That means a 60% chance of winning this Liga MX encounter according to the latest betting odds. Club León are an outside chance to get the job done and you can now back them at +320.

Backing Toluca -0.75 at -114 on the Asian Handicap line means they need to win by two goals or more against León for a full payout. A one-goal success would see you get paid out on the -0.5 part and money back on the -1.0 part.

Over 2.5 Goals is trading at a shorter price than Under 2.5 Goals right now. BTTS wagering is popular and you can back Yes at -185 on the Both Teams to Score market.

The top football betting sites provide hundreds of markets for the latest Liga MX matches. Be sure to peruse all of the available options before going ahead with your preferred wager.

Full-Time Result

1

+320

X

+310

2

-147

Half-Time Result

1

+325

X

+150

2

+110

Double Chance

1X

-100

12

-556

X2

-556

Draw No Bet

1

+210

2

-313

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.75

-109

2 Hcp -0.75

-114

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+138

Over 2.5

-189

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-185

No

+128

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is priced at +340 when it comes to First Goalscorer. He’s the favourite and also available at odds of +110 to find the net anytime.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

+110

Anytime

+340

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+165

Anytime

+475

Ismael Díaz (León)

First

+250

Anytime

+750

Rogelio Funes Mori (León)

First

+260

Anytime

+750

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+300

Anytime

+850

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+310

Anytime

+900

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+390

Anytime

+1050

James Rodríguez (León)

First

+410

Anytime

+1200

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+430

Anytime

+1150

Ettson Ayon (León)

First

+430

Anytime

+1200

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+480

Anytime

+1300

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1500

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1500

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Jordi Cortizo de la Piedra (León)

First

+525

Anytime

+1500

Ángel Estrada (León)

First

+550

Anytime

+1600

Rodrigo Echeverría (León)

First

+550

Anytime

+1700

Héctor Uribe (León)

First

+575

Anytime

+1600

Carlos Cisneros (León)

First

+600

Anytime

+1700

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1700

Fernando Beltrán (León)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Sebastian Santos (León)

First

+600

Anytime

+1900

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2000

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Nicolás Fonseca (León)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-250

Under 0.5

+155

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

-137

Under 1.5

-127

Rogelio Funes Mori (León)

Over 0.5

-132

Under 0.5

-132

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-128

Under 0.5

-135

Ismael Díaz (León)

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-125

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-100

Under 0.5

-159

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+130

Under 0.5

-208

Ettson Ayon (León)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-263

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-250

James Rodríguez (León)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-244

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-278

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-303

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-303

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-313

Jordi Cortizo de la Piedra (León)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-333

Rodrigo Echeverría (León)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-370

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+205

Under 0.5

-385

Héctor Uribe (León)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-417

Fernando Beltrán (León)

Over 0.5

+235

Under 0.5

-435

Sebastian Santos (León)

Over 0.5

+245

Under 0.5

-556

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-526

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-556

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-556

León have not lost at Estadio Nou Camp in the past three matches. Eduardo Berizzo's side have finished with five defeats, three wins and two draws in the past 10 home matches, netting an average of 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40.

Toluca have managed six victories, two draws and two losses in the last 10 away matches, recording an average of 1.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00.

When the sides last met at Estadio Nou Camp, León drew 3-3 with Toluca. The past 8 H2H matches at Estadio Nou Camp have seen four León triumphs, one Toluca win and three draws.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
León Home Stats		3-2-5	2.60	1.20	1.40	5	5	5	5
Toluca Away Stats		6-2-2	2.90	1.90	1.00	5	5	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

León vs Toluca Lineups & Team News

Always review the León vs Toluca team news before locking in your bets. We’ll keep you posted with predicted and confirmed lineups for the Liga MX and all current injury news.

León Team Page Toluca Team Page

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