Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 29 Dec 2025

A-League Betting Preview: Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix

Melbourne Victory clash with Wellington Phoenix at AAMI Park, with kick-off set for 03:00 on Monday 29 December.

We’re confident that there will be a low goal count when Melbourne Victory and Wellington meet. The Total Goals market offers us the chance to bet on Under 2.5 and the odds of +112 look really appealing.

Thinking it’ll be a low-scoring game? Snag the newest BetMGM promo code and give our review a read before you place your bet.

Melbourne Victory have won back-to-back A-League games. A 1-0 triumph recently occurred away at AAMI Park when playing Melbourne City. Arthur Diles' team had 41% possession and recorded four shots on target, with a late goal from Matthew Grimaldi making all the difference.

Wellington Phoenix won their previous game which was at home. It was a 3-1 triumph at Sky Stadium against Central Coast Mariners. The New Zealand outfit had eight shots on goal and 44% possession, with Corban Piper, Manjrekar James and Carlo Armiento finding the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Melbourne have won the last two encounters against Wellington. When travelling to Sky Stadium, the scoreline was 3-2 following a 1-0 home win at AAMI Park. The previous 10 H2H meetings have involved five Melbourne wins, two Wellington victories and three draws.

A-League		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
5	Melb Victory	16	7	2	7	23	21	2	23:21	23
11	Wellington	16	5	4	7	26	31	-5	26:31	19

View Full Table

Victory have 3 wins, 5 losses and 2 draws, averaging 0.7 goals from 4.4 shots on goal and 10.8 attempts. The Boys in Blue have averaged 50.0% possession and 5.2 corners per match, with their opponents getting 1.3 goals from 3.7 shots on goal, 8.5 attempts and 5.0 corners.

Keegan Jelacic and Nikolaos Vergos are the top scorers with 2 goals each, while Matthew Grimaldi has 1. Denis Genreau and Matthew Grimaldi have recorded the most assists with 2 apiece.

Wellington have won 3, lost 5 and drawn 2, with an average of 4.9 shots on goal, 9.4 attempts and 1.3 goals. Giancarlo Italiano's side average 57.4% possession, 5.4 corners awarded and 4.2 corners against, while 1.7 goals have been conceded from 9.2 attempts and 5.0 shots on goal.

The leading goalscorers have been Ifeanyi Eze on 4, Carlo Armiento with 3 and Alex Rufer 2. Kazuki Nagasawa and Corban Piper have clocked up 3 assists each in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Melbourne Victory confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Jack Duncan (GK), Joshua Rawlins, Sebastian Esposito, Roderick Miranda, Jason Davidson, Louis D'Arrigo, Jordi Valadon, Nishan Velupillay, Juan Mata, Clarismario Rodrigus, Nikolaos Vergos.

Wellington Phoenix confirmed lineup (3-5-2): Eamonn McCarron (GK), Isaac Robert Hughes, Manjrekar James, Lukas Kelly-Heald, Matthew Sheridan, Ramy Najjarine, Alex Rufer, Kazuki Nagasawa, Carlo Armiento, Ifeanyi Eze, Corban Piper.

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction & Betting Tips

Take on Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix with our in-depth betting analysis, featuring an expert match prediction, scoreline advice, corners market insight, key player props and a value-driven bet builder.

Match Prediction

We are expecting a low number of goals for this A-League encounter. The odds of +112 for Under 2.5 look really attractive and we can play this bet with a fair amount of confidence.

The Sportsgambler.com football experts keep abreast of the latest A-League team news and form guide considering they could have a bearing on the outcome. It’s also important for our readers to have access to stats.

Key Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix league stats:

• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Victory games at home.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Victory games.

According to the top bookies, our pick has a 47.2% chance of landing a return. In our opinion, there’s actually a probability of success between 50-55%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this wager.

If you want to land a larger price, then there’s a chance to choose Under 2.5 Goals accompanied by a winning team. This is on offer thanks to the Result & Total Goals market.

Before placing your bet, explore our exclusive betting promo codes, welcome offers, and best free bets for today.

Our Match Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals @ +112 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (09:07, 27 December 2025). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Victory 2 - 0 Wellington

An exciting bet could be a 2-0 victory in favor of Victory at odds of +540. A correct score wager provides a fun alternative and a nice potential return on the cards.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nishan Velupillay To Score +205

Nishan Velupillay (Victory) can be wagered at +205 to be among the goals. He looks like a value bet to find the net and we recommend backing this Anytime Goalscorer pick.

Latest Nishan Velupillay Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+210

First

+510

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Wellington Over 3.5 Corners -130

The past 10 Wellington games have involved them having an average of 5.40 corners, with Melbourne Victory conceding over 3.5 corners in their previous five matches. We’re content to wager the -130 for Wellington to cover the Team Corners line as this looks appealing.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Victory

Total

10.20 5.20 5.00

Home

9.30 5.60 3.70

Away

11.30 5.90 5.40

Wellington

Total

9.60 5.40 4.20

Home

10.20 5.30 4.90

Away

9.40 3.20 6.20

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-102

Under 10.5

-139

Victory Corners

Over 6.5

-104

Under 6.5

-143

Wellington Corners

Over 3.5

-123

Under 3.5

-120

Most Corners

1

-294

X

+750

2

+270

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Melbourne Victory are regarded as having a 65% chance of winning this A-League clash in the eyes of the bookies. It means that their current betting odds are -189. Wellington Phoenix are the +430 underdogs, while the draw can also be backed as an alternative.

One way of getting with Melbourne is taking them at -116 on the Asian Handicap -1. You’re successful if they beat Wellington by two goals and get money back if the margin is just one.

If you want to bet on three goals or more, then Over 2.5 is the shortest odds. Should you expect both teams score, then the BTTS Yes option is available at -143.

There are hundreds of markets which means lots of options to find a football wager for the latest A-League game. The leading betting apps leave no stone unturned to provide a first-class service.

Full-Time Result

1

-189

X

+330

2

+430

Half-Time Result

1

+104

X

+148

2

+380

Double Chance

1X

-833

12

-556

X2

+128

Draw No Bet

1

-476

2

+285

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1

-116

2 Hcp +1

-122

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+112

Over 2.5

-161

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-143

No

-100

Nikos Vergos is the market leader to be First Goalscorer at +240. Alternatively, there’s the chance to back him to find the net at any stage at -110.

Nikos Vergos (Victory)

First

-110

Anytime

+240

Nishan Velupillay (Victory)

First

+210

Anytime

+510

Jing Reec (Victory)

First

+220

Anytime

+575

Nikola Mileusnic (Wellington)

First

+375

Anytime

+900

Ramy Najjarine (Wellington)

First

+460

Anytime

+1100

Jordi Valadon (Victory)

First

+480

Anytime

+1150

Luke Brooke-Smith (Wellington)

First

+510

Anytime

+1200

Roderick Miranda (Victory)

First

+600

Anytime

+1500

Kazuki Nagasawa (Wellington)

First

+600

Anytime

+1400

Joshua Rawlins (Victory)

First

+650

Anytime

+1500

Joshua Inserra (Victory)

First

+700

Anytime

+1700

Fin Conchie (Wellington)

First

+750

Anytime

+1900

Paulo Retre (Wellington)

First

+850

Anytime

+2000

Gabriel Sloane-Rodrigues (Wellington)

First

+900

Anytime

+2000

Corban Piper (Wellington)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Alex Rufer (Wellington)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Matt Sheridan (Wellington)

First

+1000

Anytime

+2200

Melbourne have recorded four victories, three draws and three defeats in the previous 10 home matches, netting an average of 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20.

Wellington have not triumphed in five straight away matches. The New Zealand outfit have recorded six defeats, three draws and one victory in the previous 10 away matches, netting an average of 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30.

The past meeting at AAMI Park saw Melbourne defeat Wellington 1-0. The 10 most recent H2H meetings at AAMI Park have included five Melbourne victories along with five draws.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Melbourne Victory Home Stats		4-3-3	2.60	1.40	1.20	4	6	4	6
Wellington Phoenix Away Stats		1-3-6	3.40	1.10	2.30	6	4	8	2

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Lineups & Team News

Before making your bets, take a look at the Victory vs Wellington team news. Stay in the know with our predicted and confirmed A-League lineups and the latest on injuries.

Melbourne Victory Team Page Wellington Phoenix Team Page

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