Monterrey vs Toluca Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 07 May 2025

Expect a Tight Affair

Get ready for the first leg of this Liga MX Clausura quarter-final tie as Monterrey clash with Toluca at Estadio BBVA.

The best plan could involve backing Toluca with a +0.25 Asian Handicap at -135 when clashing with Monterrey. Our stake is split between 0 and +0.5, allowing us to land a return in the event of a draw.

1-1 Draw in Last H2H Battle

Monterrey won their last game, beating Pumas UNAM at home. They triumphed 2-0 at Estadio BBVA. Martin Demichelis' team had five shots on target and boasted 63% possession, with German Berterame and Nelson Deossa scoring one goal apiece.

Deportivo Toluca drew 2-2 in their previous game. This was at home at Estadio Nemesio Diez against Cruz Azul. Los Diablos Rojos had the lion’s share of the ball recording 59% possession and five shots on goal, while Juan Dominguez and Jesus Gallardo were both on target.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have gone unbeaten in their past four games against Monterrey, with the last encounter ending 1-1 at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The previous 10 H2H matches have included four wins for Monterrey, two victories for Toluca along with four draws.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Monterrey	6	5	0	1	13	7	6	13:7	15
6	Toluca	6	3	1	2	13	9	4	13:9	10

View Full Table

Rayados have 6 wins, 3 losses and 1 draw, averaging 1.9 goals from 5.1 shots on goal and 10.9 attempts. They have averaged 53.8% possession and 4.3 corners per match, with their opponents getting 1.1 goals from 4.1 shots on goal, 8.5 attempts and 4.0 corners.

German Berterame is the top scorer with 5 goals, Nelson Deossa has 4, with Sergio Ramos and Sergio Canales on 3. Jesus Corona is the leading assists maker on 5.

Deportivo Toluca have 8 victories, 1 defeat and 1 draw, averaging 11.8 attempts, 7.2 shots on goal and 2.8 goals. Antonio Mohamed's side average 57.6% possession, 5.2 corners awarded and 4.6 corners against them, while 1.2 goals have been conceded from 3.7 shots on goal and 8.8 attempts.

Paulinho has recorded 10 goals, Alexis Vega 6, with Jesus Gallardo and Jesus Angulo both managing 3. Jesus Angulo, Alexis Vega and Jesus Gallardo have clocked up 4 assists each in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Monterrey confirmed lineup (4-3-3): Esteban Andrada (GK), Fidel Ambriz, John Medina, Victor Guzman, Gerardo Arteaga, Nelson Deossa, Jorge Rodriguez, Oliver Torres, Sergio Canales, German Berterame, Jesus Corona.

Toluca confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Pau Lopez (GK), Diego Barbosa, Bruno Mendez, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo, Hector Herrera, Marcel Ruiz, Juan Dominguez, Jesus Angulo, Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

Monterrey vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips

We’re siding with Toluca at -135 in this Liga MX match with a +0.25 goal advantage. It’s expected that they will have an edge and we can therefore feel bullish of a return with this wager.

It’s always a case of checking out the latest team news to make expert football recommendations. Then we get to work when it comes to unearthing the stats that are the most valuable.

Key Monterrey vs Toluca league stats:

• The +0.25 line has been covered by Toluca in all of their last 5 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Toluca in 9 of their last 10 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Toluca in 7 consecutive games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Monterrey in 11 of their last 20 games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Monterrey in 4 consecutive games against Toluca.

Toluca +0.25 Probability

According to the latest odds, there’s a 57.5% likelihood of our pick winning. Based on our tipsters research, we calculate the actual probability to be 60-65%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

Bettors have the flexibility of being able to buy or sell goals depending on whether they want a safer or a riskier wager, with the odds moving according to the line.

Our Match Prediction

Toluca Asian Hcp +0.25 @ -135 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Monterrey 1 - 2 Toluca

There are betting odds of +950 that Toluca land a 2-1 victory. The correct score option is popular due to the potential return that can be achieved.

Corners Prediction

Monterrey Over 4.5 Corners -159

Monterrey have averaged 5.70 corners in the past 10 home matches, with the corner count against Toluca going over 4.5 in their previous three games. The number of Monterrey corners might be larger than the line implies and that means a bet at odds of -159.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Monterrey

Total

8.30 4.30 4.00

Home

9.60 5.70 3.90

Away

9.70 5.00 4.70

Toluca

Total

9.80 5.20 4.60

Home

8.40 4.30 4.10

Away

9.30 5.00 4.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-106

Under 9.5

-139

Monterrey Corners

Over 4.5

-163

Under 4.5

+120

Toluca Corners

Over 4.5

-120

Under 4.5

-120

Most Corners

1

-154

X

+575

2

+148

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Monterrey vs Toluca Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Tight Affair Likely According to the Betting Sites

The bookies have priced up the Full-Time Result betting odds and Monterrey are +112 to land a Liga MX home victory, while Deportivo Toluca are +245 to win on the road. The draw is trading at +210 should you think the clash will end all square.

The expectation is that Over 2.5 Goals will be scored according to the latest odds.

The leading football betting sites allow customers to place a Bet Builder when it comes to Liga MX matches. Simply pick out the selections that you fancy and then combine them together on your bet slip.

Full-Time Result

1

+112

X

+210

2

+245

Half-Time Result

1

+170

X

+112

2

+270

Double Chance

1X

-400

12

-333

X2

-164

Draw No Bet

1

-213

2

+133

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.25

-125

2 Hcp +0.25

-109

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-133

Over 2.5

-102

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-143

No

+102

Germán Berterame Favourite to Score the First Goal

Germán Berterame is the market leader at +360 to be the First Goalscorer. Should you think he will score the last goal, then a similar price can be found.

Germán Berterame (Monterrey)

First

+155

Anytime

+360

João Paulo "Paulinho" Fernandes (Toluca)

First

+165

Anytime

+380

Sergio Canales (Monterrey)

First

+205

Anytime

+480

Roberto De La Rosa (Monterrey)

First

+245

Anytime

+510

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+310

Anytime

+600

Jose Alvarado (Monterrey)

First

+330

Anytime

+700

Nelson Alexander Deossa (Monterrey)

First

+380

Anytime

+850

Jesús Corona (Monterrey)

First

+390

Anytime

+800

Jordi Cortizo de la Piedra (Monterrey)

First

+410

Anytime

+800

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+440

Anytime

+850

Hélio Júnio "Helinho" Nunes de Castro (Toluca)

First

+480

Anytime

+1200

Lucas Ocampos (Monterrey)

First

+480

Anytime

+1200

Érick Aguirre (Monterrey)

First

+480

Anytime

+1050

Jesus Angulo (Toluca)

First

+480

Anytime

+950

Edgar López (Toluca)

First

+480

Anytime

+850

Oliver Torres (Monterrey)

First

+550

Anytime

+1200

Fidel Ambriz (Monterrey)

First

+550

Anytime

+1300

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+575

Anytime

+1300

Juan Pablo Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1200

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1400

José Urías (Monterrey)

First

+600

Anytime

+1150

Ricardo Chavez (Monterrey)

First

+650

Anytime

+1800

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+1800

Hector Moreno (Monterrey)

First

+800

Anytime

+1800

Tony Leone (Monterrey)

First

+850

Anytime

+2000

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+850

Anytime

+1700

Luis Reyes (Monterrey)

First

+850

Anytime

+1800

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+850

Anytime

+1800

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+900

Anytime

+1900

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+950

Anytime

+2000

Monterrey vs Toluca Lineups & Team News

It’s great to get the latest lineups for the match, with injuries being flagged up thanks to our up-to-date Rayados vs Toluca team news.

Getting the player information you need is easy thanks to the Liga MX squads.

Monterrey Team Page Toluca Team Page