Monterrey vs Toluca Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 10 Jan 2026

Liga MX Betting Preview: Monterrey vs Toluca

Monterrey clash with 2025 Apertura champions Toluca at Estadio BBVA, with kick-off set for 22:00 on Saturday 10 January.

Monterrey have the capability of securing a victory when they clash with Toluca. For this reason, we are going to take the Full-Time Result odds of -154 with a large degree of confidence.

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Deportivo Toluca have suffered successive Liga MX road losses. Their most recent league game was a 11-9 after penalties home victory at Estadio Nemesio Diez where they beat Tigres UANL. Antonio Mohamed's men enjoyed 67% possession and had twelve shots on goal, with Helinho and Paulinho on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was Toluca who came out on top when they last played Monterrey. At Estadio Nemesio Diez, a 3-2 home win was recorded. The previous 10 H2H games have featured five Toluca wins, two draws and three Monterrey victories.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
10	Monterrey	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
18	Toluca	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0

View Full Table

3 wins, 4 losses and 3 draws, averaging 1.6 goals from 4.8 shots on goal and 8.3 attempts. Rayados have had 47.4% possession and 2.8 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 1.7 goals from 4.2 shots on goal and 7.5 attempts, while their opponents have been awarded 4.4 corners.

German Berterame is the top scorer with 5 goals, Sergio Canales has 4, with Sergio Ramos and Roberto de la Rosa on 2. Jesus Corona, Sergio Canales and German Berterame have racked up the most assists with 2 each.

Deportivo Toluca have 4 victories, 2 defeats and 4 draws, averaging 4.8 shots on goal, 10.5 attempts and 2.0 goals. Los Diablos Rojos average 50.9% possession, 6.1 corners taken and 4.2 corners against them, while 1.6 goals have been conceded from 6.5 attempts and 2.4 shots on goal.

Paulinho got 5 goals, Helinho notched 3, while Federico Pereira and two other players scored 1. Helinho, Nicolas Castro and Diego Barbosa have managed 2 assists in the last 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Monterrey predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Luis Cárdenas (GK), Ricardo Chávez, Stefan Medina, Carlos Salcedo, Alonso Aceves, Jorge Rodriguez, Iker Fimbres, Oliver Torres, Sergio Canales, Anthony Martial, Germán Berterame.

Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Diego Barbosa, Antonio Briseño, Everardo del Villar, Mauricio André Isais, Fernando Arce, Marcel Ruíz, Nicolas Castro, Jesús Angulo, Ernesto Alexis Vega, Oswaldo Virgen.

Monterrey vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips

This expert Monterrey vs Toluca betting breakdown features our match prediction, a correct score tip, corners analysis, player prop suggestions and a carefully constructed bet builder to guide your wagers.

Match Prediction

It could be beneficial to back Monterrey for this Liga MX clash. There’s loads of value in the -154 that the home team get the job done and we think a victory could be on the cards.

Team news can have a significant impact on the betting odds, and we factor this in alongside recent form and the latest Liga MX stats when making our football predictions.

Key Monterrey vs Toluca league stats:

• Monterrey have won 14 of their last 20 games at home.
• Monterrey have won 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• Monterrey have won 2 consecutive games at home.
• Toluca have lost their last 2 games on the road.

The latest odds imply that our pick has a 60.6% prospect of winning. In our opinion, there’s actually a probability of success closer to 70%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this wager.

If you’re looking for greater odds, Rayados can be backed at a bigger price on the Asian Handicap. Also consider the Result & Both Teams to Score and Double Result markets for more juice.

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Our Match Prediction

Monterrey To Win @ -154 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Monterrey 2 - 0 Toluca

Monterrey can be backed to win 2-0 when it comes to the correct score. We’ll go for the +650 that this happens and hopefully we’ll get a good run for our money.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Alexis Vega Over 0.5 Shots On Target -114

Alexis Vega (Toluca) is available to have at least one shot on goal at -114. Shots on Target bettors should definitely consider him at the available odds and we’ll have a play.

Latest Alexis Vega Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+290

First

+800

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-141

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Sergio Canales to Score +170

Sergio Canales (Monterrey) has registered three goals in his past five Liga MX games on home soil. Considering the numbers, we think that odds of +170 offer plenty of appeal when it comes to wagering on Anytime Goalscorer.

Latest Sergio Canales Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+165

First

+525

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-192

Under 0.5

+110

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Corners Prediction

Monterrey Under 5.5 Corners -154

Monterrey have not covered the 5.5 corners line in ten consecutive matches. There’s a price of -154 for this Team Corners bet and we think the Monterrey line is too big.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Monterrey

Total

7.20 2.80 4.40

Home

9.30 4.00 5.30

Away

7.40 3.30 4.10

Toluca

Total

10.30 6.10 4.20

Home

9.00 5.60 3.40

Away

10.40 5.10 5.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-119

Under 9.5

-125

Monterrey Corners

Over 5.5

+106

Under 5.5

-167

Toluca Corners

Over 3.5

-175

Under 3.5

+112

Most Corners

1

-149

X

+600

2

+155

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Monterrey vs Toluca Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

The Monterrey betting odds are -149 which means that they’re favourites to land victory in this Liga MX encounter. It’s also suggested by the bookies that this team have a 60% chance of winning. The market implies that Deportivo Toluca are the most unlikely to win at +360.

Monterrey are -119 if you take them on the Asian Handicap at -0.75. Stakes are split between -0.5 and -1 which means you need a 2+ goal win for a full payout. A one-goal victory means a return with half your stake and the other half refunded.

For those expecting a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals is the shortest price. If you think that both sides will end up scoring, then the Both Teams to Score Yes option can be backed at -182.

Hundreds of markets are made available when it comes to Liga MX matches, with the recommended football betting sites leaving no stone unturned in terms of available options.

Full-Time Result

1

-149

X

+285

2

+360

Half-Time Result

1

+112

X

+148

2

+325

Double Chance

1X

-667

12

-500

X2

+102

Draw No Bet

1

-400

2

+230

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.75

-119

2 Hcp +0.75

-109

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+132

Over 2.5

-182

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-182

No

+125

Favourite Germán Berterame is priced at +330 to be the first player to find the net. There’s also the opportunity to back him to score any time at odds of +105.

Germán Berterame (Monterrey)

First

+105

Anytime

+330

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

+160

Anytime

+460

Sergio Canales (Monterrey)

First

+165

Anytime

+525

Lucas Ocampos (Monterrey)

First

+220

Anytime

+700

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+290

Anytime

+800

Jesús Corona (Monterrey)

First

+330

Anytime

+950

Érick Aguirre (Monterrey)

First

+475

Anytime

+1300

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Fidel Ambriz (Monterrey)

First

+550

Anytime

+1600

Oliver Torres (Monterrey)

First

+575

Anytime

+1700

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+575

Anytime

+1500

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2000

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Ricardo Chavez (Monterrey)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Stefan Medina (Monterrey)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Víctor Andrés Guzmán (Monterrey)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Alonso Aceves (Monterrey)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Jorge Rodriguez (Monterrey)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Sergio Canales (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

-192

Under 0.5

+110

Lucas Ocampos (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-139

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-141

Germán Berterame (Monterrey)

Over 1.5

+110

Under 1.5

-192

Jesús Corona (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+130

Under 0.5

-238

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

+145

Under 1.5

-270

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-313

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-313

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-417

Érick Aguirre (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+205

Under 0.5

-435

Fidel Ambriz (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+230

Under 0.5

-526

Oliver Torres (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-556

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-556

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-588

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-588

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-625

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-769

Stefan Medina (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+360

Under 0.5

-1429

Ricardo Chavez (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+370

Under 0.5

-1429

Alonso Aceves (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+370

Under 0.5

-1429

Jorge Rodriguez (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+370

Under 0.5

-1429

Víctor Andrés Guzmán (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+400

Under 0.5

-2000

Monterrey have avoided defeat in their last ten matches at Estadio BBVA. Monterrey have secured seven victories and three draws in the previous 10 home matches, netting an average of 2.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90.

Toluca have five wins, three losses and two draws in the last 10 away games, scoring an average of 1.40 goals per match and conceding 0.70.

Monterrey beat Toluca 1-0 when the teams last met at Estadio BBVA. The past 8 H2H games at Estadio BBVA have involved six Monterrey wins, one Toluca victory and one draw.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Monterrey Home Stats		7-3-0	3.00	2.10	0.90	5	5	6	4
Toluca Away Stats		5-2-3	2.10	1.40	0.70	4	6	3	7

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Monterrey vs Toluca Lineups & Team News

Be smart with your bets — check the Rayados vs Toluca team news beforehand. Stay in the know with our predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups and the latest on injuries.

Monterrey Team Page Toluca Team Page

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