Nacional vs Casa Pia Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 08 Feb 2026
Primeira Liga Betting Preview: Nacional vs Casa Pia
Nacional host Casa Pia at Estadio da Madeira, with kick-off set for 10:30 on Sunday 8 February.
The BTTS Yes betting option really stands out at odds of -115. We think that this price is worth taking when Nacional go up against Casa Pia, with the two teams capable of finding the net.
Think our BTTS Yes prediction will land? Unlock your BetMGM promo code and read our in-depth expert review of the site before jumping in.
Nacional suffered a defeat in their last game. A 2-1 scoreline occurred away from home at Estadio Jose Alvalade against Sporting CP. The Madeira club had just 38% possession and recorded four shots on target, while Alan Nunez bagged the goal.
Casa Pia have experienced back-to-back Primeira Liga away losses. In their previous league match, they beat Porto at home, winning 2-1 at Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior. Alvaro Pacheco's side enjoyed just 31% possession and had two shots on goal, while Gaizka Larrazabal and Thiago Silva (own goal) found the net.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Nacional have beaten Casa Pia in the last two clashes. The most recent was a 2-0 away win at Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior after a 3-1 home victory at Estadio da Madeira. In the past 3 H2H meetings, we have seen two Nacional wins and one Casa Pia victory.
| Primeira Liga | G | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | GD | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 |  Nacional |
20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27:30 | 20 |
| 15 |  Casa Pia |
20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 22:39 | 18 |
Nacional have 2 wins, 5 losses and 3 draws, averaging 1.7 goals from 11.7 attempts and 4.1 shots on goal. Tiago Margarido's team have averaged 44.4% possession, 334.5 passes and 3.0 corners per game, conceding 1.6 goals and 6.7 corners from 16.0 attempts and 4.9 shots on goal.
Jesus Ramirez leads the way with 7 goals, Ze Vitor has 3, with Alan Nunez and two others on 1. Liziero and Paulinho Boia have the most assists with 2, while goalie Kaique Pereira has recorded one clean sheet.
Casa Pia have won 2, lost 4 and drawn 4, with an average of 6.9 attempts, 2.5 shots on goal and 1.1 goals. The Geese average 43.5% possession, 314.8 passes, 3.4 corners awarded and 6.8 corners against them, while 1.7 goals have been conceded from 4.6 shots on goal and 14.1 attempts.
Gaizka Larrazabal has landed 3 goals, Renato Nhaga 2, with David Sousa and two others scoring 1. Jeremy Livolant is top assists provider with 3, while Patrick Sequeira has recorded one clean sheet in the last 10 games.
Predicted & Confirmed Lineups
Nacional predicted lineup (4-3-3): Kaique Pereira (GK), Alan Núñez, Léo Santos, Zé Vítor, Jose Gomes, Joel Silva, Matheus Dias, Liziero, Gabriel Veron, Jesús Ramírez, Paulinho Bóia.
Casa Pia predicted lineup (3-4-3): Patrick Sequeira (GK), João Goulart, Domingos José Gabriel Bandeira Kaly, David Sousa, Gaizka Larrazabal, Iyad Mohamed, Rafael Brito, Abdu Conte, Tiago Morais, Cassiano, Jeremy Livolant.
Nacional vs Casa Pia Prediction & Betting Tips
Step into Nacional vs Casa Pia with confidence as we bring you our main match prediction, projected scoreline, key corners betting angle, best player prop picks and a custom-built bet builder.
Match Prediction
Let’s take a chance on the BTTS Yes option when it comes to this Primeira Liga clash. We really like the -115 that is available and feel confident that the teams can both find the net.
Getting the lowdown on injuries and studying the Primeira Liga form guide are important duties ahead of making football predictions. We also place great emphasis on the stats and a data-led approach can sometimes be effective.
Key Nacional vs Casa Pia league stats:
According to the latest odds, our pick has a 53.5% chance of winning. After careful examination, our tipsters have this probability close to 60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.
BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 Goals are picks along the same lines and they can be combined on the Total Goals & Both Teams to Score market. In the quest for a slightly bigger price, you can take this option.
Before your next wager, read our guide featuring today’s top betting offers, free bet deals, and sign-up bonuses.
Correct Score Prediction
2
-
1
Casa Pia
There are betting odds of +600 that Nacional land a 2-1 victory. The correct score option is popular due to the potential return that can be achieved.
Player Prop Picks
Matheus Dias (Nacional) can be backed at +550 to score. There are appealing odds on offer for this Anytime Goalscorer pick and we think this is an attractive wager for him to be on the scoresheet.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Corners Prediction
Casa Pia have had over 3.5 corners in four straight away games, with Nacional conceding over 3.5 corners in their past ten home games. The Casa Pia Team Corners line looks attractive and we’re going to take the -128 that it’s covered.
Nacional
Casa Pia
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Bet Builder Tips
We’ve got a same-game multi and the legs include both teams scoring, Nacional on the Full-Time Result as well as Matheus Dias (Nacional) to find the net.
Should you want to back different outcomes for the same football game, then a bet builder will suit your needs. It’s a great bet to have if you’re confident of certain outcomes, especially as the price for each selection is combined.
Nacional vs Casa Pia Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
The bookies have Nacional at +112 when it comes to Full-Time Result. This implies that the favourites are 47% likely to win this Primeira Liga encounter according to the latest betting odds. Casa Pia are the outsiders at +235 which suggests a lower likelihood of winning.
If you think Nacional can overcome Casa Pia, then there’s an Asian Handicap option where the former are -127 with a -0.25 deficit. There’s half your money back in the event of a draw.
For the Total Goals market, Under 2.5 is the shortest price for this interesting contest. For those anticipating both sides finding the net, then BTTS Yes might prove attractive. Alternatively, you can wager BTTS No.
If you head to our recommended betting sites, then you can’t go wrong with the hundreds of markets available for each Primeira Liga match. Go through the options and choose your football bet.
Jesus Ramírez Díaz is the favourite to be First Goalscorer at +350. If you’re interested in backing him to find the net at anytime, then the price is +175.
Nacional have gone unbeaten at Estadio da Madeira in the last three games. The Madeira club have finished with five defeats, three wins and two draws in the past 10 home matches, netting an average of 1.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00.
Casa Pia have managed six losses, three victories and one draw in the last 10 away matches, recording an average of 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00.
Nacional won 3-1 when they last played Casa Pia at Estadio da Madeira.
| Last 10 League Games | W-D-L | G | GF | GA | O2.5 | U2.5 | B-Y | B-No | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Home Stats |
3-2-5 | 3.90 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 3 | |
| Casa Pia Away Stats |
3-1-6 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | |
- W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
- G = Avg. Goals
- GF = Avg. Goals For
- GA = Avg. Goals Against
- O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
- U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
- B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
- B-No = Matches BTTS No
Nacional League Stats
Casa Pia League Stats
- 2 wins, 5 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 matches
- 3 wins, 5 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 home matches
- 2 wins, 4 defeats and 4 draws in the previous 10 matches
- 3 wins, 6 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 3.30 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 3.90 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
- BTTS Yes in 8 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 7 of the previous 10 home matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 8 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 8 of the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 2.80 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 3.00 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
- BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 away matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 3.00 corners awarded and 6.70 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 4.10 corners awarded and 7.70 corners against in the last 10 home matches
- An average of 9.70 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 11.80 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
- Had the most corners in 2 and least corners in 6 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 1 and least corners in 8 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 3.40 corners awarded and 6.80 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 4.40 corners awarded and 5.70 corners against in the last 10 away matches
- An average of 10.20 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 10.10 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
- Had the most corners in 2 and least corners in 7 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 3 and least corners in 6 of the last 10 away matches
- An average of 44.40% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 45.60% possession in the last 10 home matches
- Most possession in 1 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 3 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 43.50% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 43.60% possession in the last 10 away matches
- Most possession in 3 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 2 of the last 10 away matches
- Top Scorers for Nacional this season are Jesus Ramirez (13), Ze Vitor (4), Leonardo Santos (3)
- Top Assistors for Nacional this season are Jose Gomes (4), Liziero (4), Paulinho Boia (2)
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Nacional vs Casa Pia Lineups & Team News
Make sure to look over the Nacional vs Casa Pia team news before betting. Get the predicted and confirmed Primeira Liga lineups plus the latest injury updates from us.
Nacional Predicted Lineup 4-3-3
Casa Pia Predicted Lineup 3-4-3
Nacional Predicted Lineup 4-3-3
Casa Pia Predicted Lineup 3-4-3
Previous Nacional Lineups
Previous Casa Pia Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions
Nacional Player Stats & Squad
Manager: Tiago Margarido
Casa Pia Player Stats & Squad
Primeira Liga Table| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 20 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 41:6 | 55 |
| 2 | Sporting | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 51 |
| 3 | Benfica | 20 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 42:11 | 46 |
| 4 | Braga | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 41:18 | 36 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 29:16 | 34 |
| 6 | Moreirense | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 26:27 | 30 |
| 7 | Famalicão | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 24:19 | 29 |
| 8 | Estoril | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 41:33 | 29 |
| 9 | Vitória | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 21:27 | 28 |
| 10 | Alverca | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 20:34 | 24 |
| 11 | Nacional | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 27:30 | 20 |
| 12 | Estrela | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 24:37 | 20 |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 22:38 | 20 |
| 14 | Arouca | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 23:44 | 20 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 22:39 | 18 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 16:25 | 17 |
| 17 | Tondela | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 12:33 | 13 |
| 18 | AVS | 20 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 14:51 | 5 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 32:4 | 25 |
| 2 | Porto | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 19:2 | 25 |
| 3 | Benfica | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 23:7 | 22 |
| 4 | Gil Vicente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:7 | 20 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:11 | 19 |
| 6 | Estoril | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 21:14 | 18 |
| 7 | Vitória | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15:14 | 18 |
| 8 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19:7 | 17 |
| 9 | Alverca | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 10:15 | 17 |
| 10 | Famalicão | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:8 | 14 |
| 11 | Santa Clara | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9:12 | 11 |
| 12 | Nacional | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16:17 | 10 |
| 13 | Estrela | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:17 | 10 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | 9 |
| 15 | Arouca | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12:19 | 8 |
| 17 | Tondela | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6:13 | 6 |
| 18 | AVS | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7:23 | 3 |
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