Nacional vs Vitória Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 03 May 2025

We Think Under 2.5 Goals is the Value Bet

Nacional and Vitória could fall short of the three-goal mark and that leads us to back Under 2.5 on the Total Goals market. We’ll gladly snap up the -118 when it comes to a low-scoring contest.

2-2 Draw in Previous H2H

Nacional played Moreirense on their travels in their last game. It was a 1-1 draw at Estadio C. Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. The White and Black recorded four shots on target and had 42% possession, while Ze Vitor bagged the goal.

Vitória de Guimarães secured a 3-0 home win over Rio Ave at Estadio D. Afonso Henriques in their previous game. Luis Freire's team had the lion’s share of the ball enjoying 59% possession and six shots on goal, with Theofanis Bakoulas (own goal), Joao Mendes and Telmo Arcanjo finding the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last head-to-head saw away team Nacional draw 2-2 with Vitória at Estadio D. Afonso Henriques. The previous 3 H2H meetings have included a win for Nacional, one draw and Vitória also landing a victory.

Primeira Liga		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
13	Nacional	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
18	Vitória	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0

View Full Table

Nacional have 3 wins, 5 losses and 2 draws, averaging 0.9 goals from 4.6 shots on goal and 13.8 attempts. The Madeira side have averaged 51.6% possession, 356.6 passes and 5.1 corners per game, with their opponents scoring 1.4 goals from 5.2 shots on goal, 13.3 attempts and 4.3 corners.

Daniel Penha leads the way with 3 goals, Joel Tagueu has 2, with Ze Vitor and two others on 1. Fuki Yamada has the most assists with 2, while goalie Lucas Franca has recorded one clean sheet.

Vitória have won 6, lost 1 and drawn 3, with an average of 1.4 goals from 4.6 shots on goal and 13.3 attempts. There’s been an average of 56.4% possession, 468.1 passes, 6.8 corners taken and 2.9 corners against, while they’ve conceded 0.7 goals from 3.3 shots on goal and 8.8 attempts.

Telmo Arcanjo has scored 4, followed by Joao Mendes, Gustavo Silva and Umaro Embalo with 2 goals apiece. Joao Mendes, Jesus Ramirez and Maga have clocked up 1 assists, with Bruno Varela keeping 6 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Nacional confirmed lineup (3-2-4-1): Lucas Franca (GK), Ulisses Rocha, Matheus Dias, Ze Vitor, Joao Aurelio, Jose Gomes, Paulinho Boia, Luis Esteves, Djibril Soumare, Ruben Macedo, Joel Tagueu.

Vitória confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Bruno Varela (GK), Maga, Toni Borevkovic, Filipe Relvas, Joao Mendes, Tiago Silva, Tomas Handel, Telmo Arcanjo, Joao Mendes, Gustavo Silva, Jesus Ramirez.

Nacional vs Vitória Prediction & Betting Tips

We’re delighted with the price of -118 when it comes to wagering Under 2.5 Goals, with these odds standing out for the Primeira Liga showdown. The sides might fall short on the goal front.

Sportsgambler.com boast football expertise and that comes from knowing the team news once it’s announced. The latest form will also fuel our predictions and we make sure that the best stats are on hand.

Key Nacional vs Vitória league stats:

• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Nacional games.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 10 Vitória games.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Vitória games on the road.

Under 2.5 Probability

According to the latest odds, there’s a 54.1% likelihood of our pick winning. Our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be closer to 60%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

If you want to place an Under 2.5 Goals bet at larger odds, then there’s the chance to combine this selection with BTTS No. A Total Goals & Both Teams to Score wager is a popular option.

Our Match Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals @ -118 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Nacional 0 - 1 Vitória

Vitória can be backed at +575 to triumph by a 1-0 scoreline. It can be fun to have a wager on the correct score and there’s a big potential return if the bet wins.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Úmaro Embaló To Score +180

Úmaro Embaló (Vitória) can be backed to score at +180. He looks like a value bet to find the net and we recommend backing this Anytime Goalscorer pick.

Latest Úmaro Embaló Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+180

First

+440

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Corners Prediction

Nacional Over 3.5 Corners -150

Nacional have covered the 3.5 corners line in five straight games. If you’re in agreement with our opinion that the Nacional Team Corners line is on the low side, take the odds of -150 that they go over.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Nacional

Total

9.40 5.10 4.30

Home

9.90 4.80 5.10

Away

11.00 4.40 6.60

Vitória

Total

9.70 6.80 2.90

Home

10.30 7.50 2.80

Away

10.10 6.30 3.80

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-138

Under 9.5

-100

Nacional Corners

Over 3.5

-150

Under 3.5

+110

Vitória Corners

Over 5.5

-125

Under 5.5

-110

Most Corners

1

+180

X

+600

2

-200

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Nacional vs Vitória Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Latest 1x2 Odds Suggest Vitória Victory

Vitória de Guimarães are the -125 favourites and that means a 56% chance of winning this Primeira Liga match according to the betting odds at the bookies. If you want to back the outsider for this match, Nacional are available at +333.3.

You can back Over 2.5 Goals or Under 2.5 Goals at similar odds right now.

Head over to the Bet Builder and you’ll find all the popular football betting site markets available. Primeira Liga selections can then be combined together in a same-game accumulator which you can cheer on.

Full-Time Result

1

+333.3

X

+260

2

-125

Half-Time Result

1

+350

X

+125

2

+140

Double Chance

1X

-105

12

-350

X2

-500

Draw No Bet

1

+200

2

-275

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.5

+104

2 Hcp -0.5

-116

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-105

Over 2.5

-118

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-125

No

-105

Úmaro Embaló Top of First Goalscorer List

Favourite Úmaro Embaló is priced at +440 to be the first player to find the net. There’s also the opportunity to back him to score any time at odds of +180.

Úmaro Embaló (Vitória)

First

+180

Anytime

+440

Jesus Ramírez Díaz (Vitória)

First

+190

Anytime

+410

Gustavo da Silva Cunha (Vitória)

First

+215

Anytime

+480

Nuno (1999) Santos (Vitória)

First

+330

Anytime

+650

Isaac Aguiar Tomich (Nacional)

First

+360

Anytime

+850

Luiz Eduardo Teodora da Silva (Nacional)

First

+380

Anytime

+750

Benedito Mukendi (Vitória)

First

+380

Anytime

+850

João Mendes (Vitória)

First

+430

Anytime

+900

Tiago Rafael Silva (Vitória)

First

+480

Anytime

+1000

Mikel Villanueva (Vitória)

First

+510

Anytime

+1100

Marco Sousa Cruz (Vitória)

First

+540

Anytime

+1050

Arvin Appiah (Nacional)

First

+550

Anytime

+1200

Tomas Handel (Vitória)

First

+575

Anytime

+1200

Telmo Arcanjo (Vitória)

First

+575

Anytime

+1150

Rúben Macedo (Nacional)

First

+600

Anytime

+1300

Miguel Baeza (Nacional)

First

+600

Anytime

+1300

Hevertton Ciriaco Santos (Vitória)

First

+650

Anytime

+1500

Djibril Soumaré (Nacional)

First

+700

Anytime

+1400

João Miguel Teixeira Mendes (Vitória)

First

+750

Anytime

+1500

Toni Borevkovic (Vitória)

First

+750

Anytime

+1700

Matheus Dias (Nacional)

First

+750

Anytime

+1800

Gustavo García dos Santos (Nacional)

First

+800

Anytime

+1700

Luís Esteves (Nacional)

First

+800

Anytime

+1700

Miguel Angelo Magalhaes (Vitória)

First

+850

Anytime

+1700

Óscar Rivas (Vitória)

First

+850

Anytime

+1800

Ulisses Wilson Jeronymo Rocha (Nacional)

First

+850

Anytime

+1800

André Sousa (Nacional)

First

+900

Anytime

+1900

Nacional vs Vitória Lineups & Team News

Our Nacional vs Vitória team news will highlight the injuries for both squads, with the lineups giving you a helping hand with your bets.

The Primeira Liga squad information is a great asset when it comes to making your bets.

Nacional Team Page Vitória de Guimarães Team Page