Necaxa vs Toluca Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 21 Feb 2026

Liga MX Betting Preview: Necaxa vs Toluca

Necaxa go head-to-head with Toluca at Estadio Victoria, with kick-off set for 20:00 on Saturday 21 February.

Our experts think that siding with Necaxa +0.75 at -119 on the Asian Handicap is the way forward, with stakes split between +0.5 and +1.0 against Toluca. The home team should be able to avoid defeat in this contest.

Club Necaxa have won two on the spin, triumphing 2-1 in their previous game. This was on the road against Juárez at Estadio Benito Juarez. Martin Varini's team recorded 51% possession and managed two shots on target, while Julian Carranza and Javier Ruiz each scored one goal.

Deportivo Toluca claimed a 1-0 home win over Club Tijuana at Estadio Nemesio Diez in their previous game. Los Diablos Rojos had three shots on goal and recorded 60% possession, with Paulinho firing the winner in the 21st minute.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It has been three successive wins for Toluca when playing Necaxa. In the last encounter, Toluca claimed a 3-1 victory when hosting at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The 10 most recent H2H games have included seven Toluca victories along with three draws.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
3	Toluca	13	7	5	1	19	8	11	19:8	26
9	Necaxa	13	5	1	7	16	17	-1	16:17	16

View Full Table

Club Necaxa have 5 wins, 3 losses and 2 draws, averaging 1.9 goals from 8.5 attempts and 4.2 shots on goal. The Aguascalientes club have averaged 50.3% possession and 5.8 corners per game, conceding 1.4 goals and 4.8 corners from 7.0 attempts and 3.0 shots on goal.

Tomas Badaloni is the top goalscorer with 4, Julian Carranza has 3, with Ricardo Monreal and two other players on 2. The leading assistors have been Franco Rossano and Kevin Rosero with 3.

Deportivo Toluca have 5 victories, 2 defeats and 3 draws, with an average of 2.0 goals from 10.1 attempts and 5.0 shots on goal. Antonio Mohamed's side average 51.4% possession, 5.6 corners in their favour and 2.9 corners against, while conceding 1.5 goals from 6.0 attempts and 3.1 shots on goal.

The top scorers have been Paulinho and Helinho on 4, with Marcel Ruiz getting 1. Helinho has been the chief assist maker in the previous 10 games with 2.

Confirmed Lineups

Necaxa confirmed lineup (4-4-2): Ezequiel Unsain (GK), Raul Martinez, Alexis Pena, Agustin Oliveros, Ricardo Monreal, Lorenzo Faravelli, Danny Leyva, Cristian Calderon, Israel Tello, Julian Carranza, Agustin Almendra.

Toluca confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Luis Garcia (GK), Diego Barbosa, Federico Pereira, Everardo Lopez, Jesus Gallardo, Marcel Ruiz, Franco Romero, Santiago Simon, Jesus Angulo, Pavel Perez, Paulinho.

Necaxa vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips

Get the full betting picture for Necaxa vs Toluca, including a key match prediction, our correct score selection, best corners advice, top player prop picks and a ready-made bet builder.

Match Prediction

Back Necaxa +0.75 at -119 for this Liga MX clash. Splitting stakes between +0.5 and +1.0 could be the way forward and we think odds of 2.0 are value when it comes to this team.

The latest Liga MX injuries and suspensions can affect the overall outcome and we use this information as well as the form guide. The same applies to the stats so that we can get the best understanding of how things might pan out.

Key Necaxa vs Toluca league stats:

• The +0.75 line has been covered by Necaxa in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The +0.75 line has been covered by Necaxa in 12 of their last 19 games at home.
• The +0.75 line has been covered by Necaxa in 2 consecutive games.
• The -0.75 line hasn’t been covered by Toluca in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
• The -0.75 line hasn’t been covered by Toluca in 6 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The -0.75 line hasn’t been covered by Toluca in 2 consecutive games on the road.

According to the top bookmakers, our pick has a 54.3% chance of landing a return. After careful examination, our tipsters calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this wager.

If the initial odds don’t grab your fancy, there’s the option to shoot for more juice by moving the line when it comes to your pick. It all comes down to how confident you feel.

Make smarter wagers by browsing today’s best betting offers, complete with promos, free bets, and welcome bonuses.

Our Match Prediction

Necaxa Asian Hcp +0.75 @ -119 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Feb 20, 02:28). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Necaxa 1 - 1 Toluca

The teams can be backed at +540 to play out a 1-1 scoreline. It can be fun to have a wager on the correct score and there’s a big potential return if the bet wins.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Julián Carranza to Score +310

Julián Carranza (Necaxa) has netted three goals in his past five Liga MX games. We think there’s value in backing him for an Anytime Goalscorer prop bet at +310 which will hopefully see him find the net.

Latest Julián Carranza Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+330

First

+900

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Necaxa Over 3.5 Corners -127

The past five Necaxa home games have seen them awarded an average of 6.40 corners, while Toluca have conceded an average 4.10 corners in their last ten away matches. There’s an opportunity to go over the Necaxa Team Corners line and we’re expecting this to happen, with odds of -127 available.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Necaxa

Total

10.60 5.80 4.80

Home

10.40 6.00 4.40

Away

9.60 4.70 4.90

Toluca

Total

8.50 5.60 2.90

Home

8.70 5.50 3.20

Away

9.70 5.60 4.10

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-132

Under 9.5

-112

Necaxa Corners

Over 3.5

-139

Under 3.5

-114

Toluca Corners

Over 5.5

-130

Under 5.5

-120

Most Corners

1

+210

X

+700

2

-213

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Necaxa vs Toluca Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Deportivo Toluca are the skinniest price to succeed in this Liga MX clash, with the favourites afforded a 58% probability based on their -139 betting odds with the bookies. If you’re searching for a different slant, Club Necaxa are available at +325.

If you fancy Toluca to be leading at the interval, then you can secure odds of +123. Alternatively, there’s the chance to wager on Necaxa at +330 on the Half-Time Result, with the draw trading at +133.

If you want to bet on three goals or more, then Over 2.5 is the shortest odds. Punters anticipating that both teams will find the net are able to land -149 for the BTTS Yes option.

The leading football betting sites provide bettors with an abundance of options. For every Liga MX match, you’re able to select from hundreds of markets and make the best choice.

Full-Time Result

1

+325

X

+285

2

-139

Half-Time Result

1

+330

X

+133

2

+123

Double Chance

1X

-105

12

-500

X2

-588

Draw No Bet

1

+205

2

-333

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.75

-119

2 Hcp -0.75

-109

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+105

Over 2.5

-143

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-149

No

+105

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is available at -100 when it comes to Anytime Goalscorer. The favourite is now priced at odds of +290 to find the net first.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

-100

Anytime

+290

Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro "Helinho" (Toluca)

First

+250

Anytime

+650

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+320

Anytime

+800

Julián Carranza (Necaxa)

First

+330

Anytime

+900

Pavel Perez (Toluca)

First

+350

Anytime

+950

Tomás Badaloni (Necaxa)

First

+360

Anytime

+1000

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+420

Anytime

+1050

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+475

Anytime

+1300

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1300

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1300

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Danny Leyva (Necaxa)

First

+550

Anytime

+1400

Ricardo Monreal (Necaxa)

First

+650

Anytime

+1600

Kevin Rosero (Necaxa)

First

+650

Anytime

+1700

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

Kevin Gutiérrez (Necaxa)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

Rogelio Cortéz (Necaxa)

First

+750

Anytime

+1900

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+800

Anytime

+2000

Lorenzo Faravelli (Necaxa)

First

+800

Anytime

+2000

Antonio Briseño (Toluca)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Bruno Méndez (Toluca)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Emilio Lara (Necaxa)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Necaxa have finished with four defeats, three wins and three draws in the past 10 home matches, netting an average of 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00.

Toluca have gone unbeaten away in the last three games. Los Diablos Rojos have racked up four victories, four draws and two defeats in the previous 10 away games, netting an average of 1.00 goals per match and conceding 0.50.

Toluca were 3-1 victors against Necaxa last time out at Estadio Victoria. It has been three Toluca victories, one Necaxa win and three draws in the previous 7 H2H games at Estadio Victoria.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Necaxa Home Stats		3-3-4	2.20	1.20	1.00	2	8	5	5
Toluca Away Stats		4-4-2	1.50	1.00	0.50	3	7	2	8

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Necaxa vs Toluca Lineups & Team News

Before making your bets, take a look at the Rayos vs Toluca team news. We’ll share both predicted and confirmed lineups for the Liga MX along with the latest injury news.

Club Necaxa Team Page Toluca Team Page

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