Porto vs Nacional Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 17 May 2025
Nacional Look Value on the Asian Handicap
Nacional +1.5 look like great value on the Asian Handicap at -105 considering a one-goal loss for the outsiders would still result in a return. We are expecting them to be competitive against Porto.
Nacional Won 2-0 in Teams’ Last Meeting
FC Porto have triumphed in back-to-back games. The latest was on the road where Boavista were beaten 2-1 at Estadio do Bessa XXI. Martin Anselmi's team boasted 58% possession and had seven shots on target, with Rodrigo Mora and Ivan Marcano scoring one goal each.
Nacional drew 3-3 in their previous game. This was at home at Estadio da Madeira against Rio Ave. The White and Black had 44% possession and four shots on goal, with Andre Sousa, Leonardo Santos and Konstantinos Kostoulas (own goal) finding the net.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Nacional triumphed in the last clash between the pair. Landing a 2-0 home win when playing Porto at Estadio da Madeira. In the past 3 H2H games, we’ve seen two Porto wins and one Nacional triumph.
| Primeira Liga | G | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | GD | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |  Porto |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 14 |  Nacional |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1:3 | 1 |
Porto have 7 wins and 3 losses, averaging 1.5 goals from 4.6 shots on goal and 12.1 attempts. The Dragons have averaged 60.3% possession, 512.8 passes and 4.8 corners per game, with the opposition getting 1.1 goals from 3.5 shots on goal, 8.1 attempts and 3.7 corners.
Rodrigo Mora is the top scorer with 6 goals, while Samuel Aghehowa has 5 and Fabio Vieira 2. Francisco Moura has the most assists with 5, while goalkeeper Diogo Costa has 3 clean sheets.
Nacional – Last 10 League GamesNacional have 3 victories, 5 defeats and 2 draws, with an average of 14.2 attempts, 4.2 shots on goal and 1.1 goals. The Madeira side average 51.3% possession, 354.7 passes, 4.8 corners awarded and 4.1 corners against them, while 1.6 goals have been conceded from 5.2 shots on goal and 13.2 attempts.
The top scorers have been Joel Tagueu and Daniel Penha on 2, with Andre Sousa getting 1. Paulinho Boia and Fuki Yamada have clocked up 2 assists, with Lucas Franca keeping one clean sheet in the last 10 games.
Confirmed Lineups
Porto confirmed lineup (3-4-3): Diogo Costa (GK), Martim Fernandes, Ze Pedro, Ivan Marcano, Joao Mario, Fabio Vieira, Alan Varela, Francisco Moura, Pepe, Samuel Aghehowa, Rodrigo Mora.
Nacional confirmed lineup (3-2-4-1): Rui Encarnacao (GK), Leonardo Santos, Matheus Dias, Ze Vitor, Joao Aurelio, Jose Gomes, Ruben Macedo, Djibril Soumare, Andre Sousa, Paulinho Boia, Joel Tagueu.
Porto vs Nacional Prediction & Betting Tips
The logical play is Nacional +1.5 at odds of -105. We’re expecting them to compete well in this Primeira Liga game and the Asian Handicap option means that we land a nice payout if this wager wins.
It’s always a case of checking out the latest team news to make expert football recommendations. Then we get to work when it comes to unearthing the stats that are the most valuable.
Key Porto vs Nacional league stats:
Nacional +1.5 Probability
The betting sites make it a 51.3% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. After careful examination, our tipsters calculate this probability to be somewhere between 55-60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.
In a mission to bag bigger odds, there’s the possibility to move the line. There are lots of choices when taking this option, so you can make the selection that you like best.
Correct Score Prediction
2
-
1
Nacional
A potentially entertaining bet is going for Porto to win by a 2-1 scoreline. At odds of +700, there’s the chance to get a handsome return should this wager win.
Player Prop Picks
Fabio Vieira (Porto) has netted two goals in his past five Primeira Liga home games. There are odds of +240 available for this Anytime Goalscorer wager and we think this is a value proposition for the player to find the net.
T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+
Corners Prediction
Porto have been awarded an average of 4.80 corners in the past 10 matches, while the corner count against Nacional has been less than 7.5 in the previous ten games. We can use these stats to our advantage, with odds of -138 that Porto fall short when it comes to the Team Corners line.
Porto
Nacional
T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+
Bet Builder Tips
Our bet builder selections include Nacional with an Asian Handicap of +1.5, BTTS Yes as well as Fabio Vieira (Porto) to score at any time.
Should you want to back different outcomes for the same football game, then a bet builder will suit your needs. The bookies have created this personalised betting tool where you can hand-pick different selections and combine the odds together.
Porto vs Nacional Odds
The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.
Betting Sites Running Scared of Porto Victory
The bookies favourites are 78% likely to win the match according to the latest betting odds, with Porto priced at -357 to triumph in this Primeira Liga game. If you want to back the outsider for this match, Nacional are available at +800.
For those expecting a high-scoring game, Over 2.5 Goals is the shortest price.
If you fancy Porto but want money back if this Primeira Liga match is a draw, then you can get -1111. You can bet on Nacional at +480 on the Draw No Bet market.
Samu Aghehowa Heads First Goalscorer Market
Favourite Samu Aghehowa is priced at +265 to be the first player on the scoresheet, while there’s also the chance to back him to score any time at odds of -108.
Porto League Stats
Nacional League Stats
- 7 wins and 3 defeats in the previous 10 matches
- 6 wins, 1 defeat and 3 draws in the previous 10 home matches
- 3 wins, 5 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
- 2 wins, 6 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 2.60 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.80 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
- BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 home matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 2.70 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.20 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
- BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 away matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 4.80 corners awarded and 3.70 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 6.10 corners awarded and 3.90 corners against in the last 10 home matches
- An average of 8.50 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 10.00 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
- Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 4.80 corners awarded and 4.10 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 4.40 corners awarded and 6.60 corners against in the last 10 away matches
- An average of 8.90 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 11.00 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
- Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 3 and least corners in 6 of the last 10 away matches
- An average of 60.30% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 65.80% possession in the last 10 home matches
- Most possession in 10 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 10 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 51.30% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 45.90% possession in the last 10 away matches
- Most possession in 4 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 2 of the last 10 away matches
- Top Scorers for Porto this season are Samuel Aghehowa (18), Rodrigo Mora (9), Wenderson Galeno (8)
- Top Assistors for Porto this season are Francisco Moura (10), Martim Fernandes (5), Fabio Vieira (4)
Porto vs Nacional Lineups & Team News
It’s great to get the latest lineups for the match, with injuries being flagged up thanks to our up-to-date Porto vs Nacional team news.
We’ve got details of the Primeira Liga squads so that you know every player on the roster.
Porto Confirmed Lineup 3-4-3
Nacional Confirmed Lineup 3-2-4-1
Porto Confirmed Lineup 3-4-3
Nacional Confirmed Lineup 3-2-4-1
Porto Substitutes
- 4Otavio
- 7William Gomes
- 14Claudio Ramos
- 19Danny Namaso
- 20Andre Franco
- 25Tomas Perez
- 27Deniz Guel
- 68Andre Oliveira
- 70Goncalo Borges
Nacional Substitutes
- 10Luis Esteves
- 12Cesar
- 15Chiheb Labidi
- 17Daniel Penha
- 20Jota
- 22Gustavo Garcia
- 33Chico Goncalves
- 70Arvin Appiah
- 99Dudu Teodora
Previous Porto Lineups
Previous Nacional Lineups
Primeira Liga Table
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | 6 |
| 2 | Braga | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 6 |
| 3 | Famalicão | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 4 | Moreirense | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 5 | Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 9 | Vitória | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 10 | Arouca | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 12 | Estoril | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 13 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 14 | Nacional | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 15 | AVS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 16 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 17 | Santa Clara | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:4 | 0 |
| 18 | Tondela | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:4 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 3 |
| 2 | Braga | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 | Famalicão | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 4 | Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 5 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 6 | Vitória | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 8 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 | Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | Estrela | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 14 | Tondela | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 16 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 | AVS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 18 | Alverca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | 0 |
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