São Paulo vs Bahia Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 25 Oct 2025

Série A Betting Preview: São Paulo vs Bahia

São Paulo host Bahia in this Brazilian Série A game, with kick-off set for 21:30 on Saturday 25 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

We’re feeling confident when it comes to Bahia on the Asian Handicap with a +0.5 goal handicap. The visitors can either land a win or draw against São Paulo, with this wager looking like a value play at -110.

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São Paulo have lost their last three games. On the road, Mirassol recently beat them 3-0. Hernan Crespo's team had the majority of the ball enjoying 60% possession and three shots on target.

Bahia have lost three consecutive games on the road. The previous contest saw a 1-0 home triumph against Internacional. The Squad of Steel had five shots on goal and boasted 54% possession, with Willian Jose scoring a 45th minute winner.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was a 2-1 home win for Bahia when they last played São Paulo. São Paulo have five wins from the previous 10 H2H meetings, with three draws and two Bahia triumphs also happening.

Série A		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
7	Bahia	38	17	9	12	50	46	4	50:46	60
8	São Paulo	38	14	9	15	43	47	-4	43:47	51

View Full Table

3 wins, 6 losses and 1 draw, averaging 0.9 goals from 3.5 shots on goal and 9.0 attempts. São Paulo have had 55.1% possession and 5.8 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 1.3 goals from 5.2 shots on goal and 10.2 attempts, while their opponents have been awarded 4.5 corners.

Gonzalo Tapia is the top goalscorer with 3, Luciano Neves has 2, with Juan Dinenno and two other players on 1. Enzo Hernan Diaz has made the most assists with 3.

Bahia have 4 victories, 5 defeats and 1 draw, with an average of 1.3 goals from 5.2 shots on goal and 10.5 attempts. There’s been an average of 54.9% possession, 4.4 corners awarded and 4.3 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.5 goals from 4.4 shots on goal and 9.8 attempts.

Willian Jose got 4 goals, Rodrigo Nestor notched 3, while Iago and two other players scored 1. Willian Jose has been the top assist maker with 2 in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

São Paulo confirmed lineup (4-4-2): Rafael (GK), Alan Franco, Robert Arboleda, Sabino, Maik Gomes, Damian Bobadilla, Pablo Maia, Enzo Hernan Diaz, Marcos Antonio, Luciano Neves, Lucas Moura.

Bahia confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Ronaldo (GK), Santiago Arias, David Duarte, Santiago Ramos, Iago, Nicolas Acevedo, Jean Lucas, Ademir Santos, Rodrigo Nestor, Tiago, Willian Jose.

São Paulo vs Bahia Prediction & Betting Tips

Get the edge with our best São Paulo vs Bahia tips: a key match prediction, expert corners pick, correct score recommendation, top player prop bets and a ready-made bet builder.

Match Prediction

Bahia +0.5 could be a value play in this Série A match. We’ll take the Asian Handicap odds of -110 for the visitors to claim a victory or a draw, giving us two outcomes against one with this bet.

The football tipsters at Sportsgambler.com regularly look at the injury situatuation along with the Série A form guide. We have a wide range of stats at our disposal which means we can illustrate the key data to readers.

Key São Paulo vs Bahia league stats:

• The +0.5 line has been covered by Bahia in 14 of their last 20 games.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Bahia in 3 of their last 5 games.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Bahia in 2 consecutive games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 3 consecutive games.

The best betting sites make it a 52.4% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. After careful examination, our tipsters calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. This is why we can recommend this wager.

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Our Match Prediction

Bahia Asian Hcp +0.5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

São Paulo 1 - 1 Bahia

Our prediction for the correct score is for the teams to play out a 1-1 draw and this is available at +525. It’s a fun wager to place which lands a bigger potential return.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Willian José Under 0.5 Shots On Target -156

Willian José (Bahia) can be backed to finish without a shot on goal at -156. The odds look attractive based on the evidence and we’ll take a chance on him on the Shots on Target market.

Latest Willian José Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+390

First

+750

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-109

Under 0.5

-156

Shots

Over 1.5

-200

Under 1.5

-

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Robert Arboleda to Score +750

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo) has scored two goals in his past eight Série A matches on home soil. We think this is the pick of the player props, with a generous +750 available when it comes to backing him to score at any time.

Latest Robert Arboleda Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+750

First

+1800

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-625

Shots

Over 0.5

-135

Under 0.5

-

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Corners Prediction

Over 9.5 Corners -111

In four of the past five games featuring São Paulo, the 9.5 Total Corners line has been covered. The last two Bahia matches have also seen the line covered. We’re happy to back the -111 when it comes to the teams covering the Total Corners line which looks generous.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

São Paulo

Total

10.30 5.80 4.50

Home

8.90 5.40 3.50

Away

10.70 5.60 5.10

Bahia

Total

8.70 4.40 4.30

Home

8.20 4.90 3.30

Away

9.70 4.50 5.20

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-102

Under 9.5

-139

São Paulo Corners

Over 5.5

+110

Under 5.5

-150

Bahia Corners

Over 3.5

-163

Under 3.5

+120

Most Corners

1

-156

X

+650

2

+175

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São Paulo vs Bahia Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

São Paulo are regarded as having a 51% chance of winning this Série A clash in the eyes of the bookies. It means that their current betting odds are -104. At +295, Bahia are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

For those wanting to reduce their risk, São Paulo are -244 on the Draw No Bet market. This means a refund if the game ends level, with Bahia being priced up at +170 with the same money back guarantee.

Under 2.5 Goals is operating at the shortest price for those anticipating two or less goals. An alternative angle is a BTTS bet and Both Teams to Score No is available at -159.

The best football betting sites definitely give customers lots of choice. When it comes to Série A matches, choose from hundreds of markets until you find the most attractive odds.

Full-Time Result

1

-104

X

+235

2

+295

Half-Time Result

1

+170

X

+106

2

+340

Double Chance

1X

-435

12

-333

X2

-130

Draw No Bet

1

-244

2

+170

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

-103

2 Hcp +0.5

-119

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-185

Over 2.5

+140

Both Teams to Score

Yes

+112

No

-159

There is +175 available that Luciano da Rocha finds the net, while he is available at +350 to register the first goal which makes him favourite.

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

First

+175

Anytime

+350

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

First

+310

Anytime

+600

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

First

+310

Anytime

+600

Willian José (Bahia)

First

+390

Anytime

+750

Kayky da Silva Chagas (Bahia)

First

+400

Anytime

+950

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

First

+410

Anytime

+850

Mateo Sanabria (Bahia)

First

+475

Anytime

+950

Maílton (São Paulo)

First

+475

Anytime

+950

Ademir da Silva Santos Júnior (Bahia)

First

+600

Anytime

+1150

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

First

+700

Anytime

+1500

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

First

+750

Anytime

+1800

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

First

+750

Anytime

+1500

Michel Araujo (Bahia)

First

+750

Anytime

+1400

Cauly Souza Oliveira (Bahia)

First

+800

Anytime

+1500

Jean Lucas Souza Oliveira (Bahia)

First

+850

Anytime

+1600

Erick Luis Carvalho (Bahia)

First

+850

Anytime

+1800

Luiz Gustavo (São Paulo)

First

+850

Anytime

+1800

Wendell (São Paulo)

First

+950

Anytime

+2000

Rodrigo Nestor (Bahia)

First

+1100

Anytime

+2000

Marcos Antônio Silva Santos (São Paulo)

First

+1100

Anytime

+2000

Pablo Maia (São Paulo)

First

+1150

Anytime

+2200

Alisson Castro (São Paulo)

First

+1150

Anytime

+2200

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-263

Under 0.5

+155

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-152

Under 0.5

-103

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-143

Under 0.5

-110

Willian José (Bahia)

Over 0.5

-109

Under 0.5

-156

Kayky da Silva Chagas (Bahia)

Over 0.5

-102

Under 0.5

-154

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+112

Under 0.5

-179

Mateo Sanabria (Bahia)

Over 0.5

+117

Under 0.5

-189

Ademir da Silva Santos Júnior (Bahia)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-278

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-303

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-333

Maílton (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-345

Michel Araujo (Bahia)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-333

Jean Lucas Souza Oliveira (Bahia)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-400

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-625

Luiz Gustavo (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-588

Marcos Antônio Silva Santos (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+320

Under 0.5

-667

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

Over 3.5

+115

Under 3.5

-

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

-100

Under 2.5

-

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

+108

Under 2.5

-

Willian José (Bahia)

Over 1.5

-200

Under 1.5

-

Kayky da Silva Chagas (Bahia)

Over 1.5

-156

Under 1.5

-

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-118

Under 1.5

-

Mateo Sanabria (Bahia)

Over 1.5

-119

Under 1.5

-

Ademir da Silva Santos Júnior (Bahia)

Over 1.5

+118

Under 1.5

-

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+150

Under 1.5

-

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+105

Under 1.5

-

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-135

Under 0.5

-

São Paulo vs Bahia Lineups & Team News

Avoid surprises — review the São Paulo vs Bahia team news before you bet. We’ll update you with predicted and confirmed Série A lineups plus current injury reports.

São Paulo Team Page Bahia Team Page

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