São Paulo vs Bahia Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 25 Oct 2025

Série A Betting Preview: São Paulo vs Bahia

São Paulo host Bahia in this Brazilian Série A game, with kick-off set for 21:30 on Saturday 25 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Bahia to Cause São Paulo Problems

We’re feeling confident when it comes to Bahia on the Asian Handicap with a +0.5 goal handicap. The visitors can either land a win or draw against São Paulo, with this wager looking like a value play at -110.

Going with our Asian Handicap pick? Make the most of it—claim the best BetMGM promo code and read our expert site review ahead of making your move.

Bahia 2-1 Win in Previous H2H Encounter

São Paulo have lost their last three games. On the road, Mirassol recently beat them 3-0. Hernan Crespo's team had the majority of the ball enjoying 60% possession and three shots on target.

Bahia have lost three consecutive games on the road. The previous contest saw a 1-0 home triumph against Internacional. The Squad of Steel had five shots on goal and boasted 54% possession, with Willian Jose scoring a 45th minute winner.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was a 2-1 home win for Bahia when they last played São Paulo. São Paulo have five wins from the previous 10 H2H meetings, with three draws and two Bahia triumphs also happening.

Série A		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
5	Bahia	29	14	7	8	40	32	8	40:32	49
9	São Paulo	29	10	8	11	31	33	-2	31:33	38

View Full Table

3 wins, 6 losses and 1 draw, averaging 0.9 goals from 3.5 shots on goal and 9.0 attempts. São Paulo have had 55.1% possession and 5.8 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 1.3 goals from 5.2 shots on goal and 10.2 attempts, while their opponents have been awarded 4.5 corners.

Gonzalo Tapia is the top goalscorer with 3, Luciano Neves has 2, with Juan Dinenno and two other players on 1. Enzo Hernan Diaz has made the most assists with 3.

Bahia have 4 victories, 5 defeats and 1 draw, with an average of 1.3 goals from 5.2 shots on goal and 10.5 attempts. There’s been an average of 54.9% possession, 4.4 corners awarded and 4.3 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.5 goals from 4.4 shots on goal and 9.8 attempts.

Willian Jose got 4 goals, Rodrigo Nestor notched 3, while Iago and two other players scored 1. Willian Jose has been the top assist maker with 2 in the last 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

São Paulo predicted lineup (3-4-1-2): Rafael (GK), Alan Franco, Robert Arboleda, Sabino, Maik, Damián Bobadilla, Rodriguinho, Enzo Díaz, Marcos Antônio, Luciano, Lucas Moura.

Bahia predicted lineup (4-3-3): Ronaldo (GK), Gilberto, Gabriel Xavier, Santi Ramos Mingo, Luciano Juba, Jean Lucas, Nicolás Acevedo, Michel Araújo, Ademir Santos, Willian José, Mateo Sanabria.

São Paulo vs Bahia Prediction & Betting Tips

Get the edge with our best São Paulo vs Bahia tips: a key match prediction, expert corners pick, correct score recommendation, top player prop bets and a ready-made bet builder.

Match Prediction

Bahia +0.5 could be a value play in this Série A match. We’ll take the Asian Handicap odds of -110 for the visitors to claim a victory or a draw, giving us two outcomes against one with this bet.

The football tipsters at Sportsgambler.com regularly look at the injury situatuation along with the Série A form guide. We have a wide range of stats at our disposal which means we can illustrate the key data to readers.

Key São Paulo vs Bahia league stats:

• The +0.5 line has been covered by Bahia in 14 of their last 20 games.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Bahia in 3 of their last 5 games.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Bahia in 2 consecutive games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The -0.5 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 3 consecutive games.

Bahia +0.5 Probability

The best betting sites make it a 52.4% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. After careful examination, our tipsters calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. This is why we can recommend this wager.

There are bigger prices on offer for bettors who are willing to move the line. If you want to take a different perspective on a team’s performance, more juice is up for grabs.

Get more from your bets—review the most up-to-date betting promo codes and sign-up offers in our exclusive bonus guide.

Our Match Prediction

Bahia Asian Hcp +0.5 @ -110 Watch Live Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Correct Score Prediction

São Paulo 1 - 1 Bahia

Our prediction for the correct score is for the teams to play out a 1-1 draw and this is available at +525. It’s a fun wager to place which lands a bigger potential return.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Willian José Under 0.5 Shots On Target -156

Willian José (Bahia) can be backed to finish without a shot on goal at -156. The odds look attractive based on the evidence and we’ll take a chance on him on the Shots on Target market.

Latest Willian José Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+400

First

+750

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-110

Under 0.5

-156

Shots

Over 2.5

+148

Under 2.5

-

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

---

Robert Arboleda to Score +750

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo) has scored two goals in his past eight Série A matches on home soil. We think this is the pick of the player props, with a generous +750 available when it comes to backing him to score at any time.

Latest Robert Arboleda Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+750

First

+1800

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-667

Shots

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Corners Prediction

Over 9.5 Corners -111

In four of the past five games featuring São Paulo, the 9.5 Total Corners line has been covered. The last two Bahia matches have also seen the line covered. We’re happy to back the -111 when it comes to the teams covering the Total Corners line which looks generous.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

São Paulo

Total

10.30 5.80 4.50

Home

8.90 5.40 3.50

Away

10.70 5.60 5.10

Bahia

Total

8.70 4.40 4.30

Home

8.20 4.90 3.30

Away

9.70 4.50 5.20

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-109

Under 9.5

-130

São Paulo Corners

Over 5.5

+110

Under 5.5

-150

Bahia Corners

Over 3.5

-163

Under 3.5

+120

Most Corners

1

-167

X

+650

2

+185

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

São Paulo vs Bahia Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Bookies Giving São Paulo Plenty of Respect

São Paulo are regarded as having a 53% chance of winning this Série A clash in the eyes of the bookies. It means that their current betting odds are -114. At +310, Bahia are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

If you want to back the favourites to be ahead by the break, then São Paulo are +160 on the Half-Time Result market. Alternatively, Bahia are +350 and the draw is priced at +108.

Under 2.5 Goals is operating at the shortest price for those anticipating two or less goals. An alternative angle is a BTTS bet and Both Teams to Score No is available at -149.

The best football betting sites definitely give customers lots of choice. When it comes to Série A matches, choose from hundreds of markets until you find the most attractive odds.

Full-Time Result

1

-114

X

+245

2

+310

Half-Time Result

1

+160

X

+108

2

+350

Double Chance

1X

-455

12

-345

X2

-120

Draw No Bet

1

-270

2

+180

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

-112

2 Hcp +0.5

-110

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-172

Over 2.5

+132

Both Teams to Score

Yes

+104

No

-149

Luciano da Rocha Heads First Goalscorer Market

There is +195 available that Luciano da Rocha finds the net, while he is available at +400 to register the first goal which makes him favourite.

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

First

+195

Anytime

+400

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

First

+280

Anytime

+540

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

First

+290

Anytime

+600

Willian José (Bahia)

First

+400

Anytime

+750

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

First

+400

Anytime

+850

Kayky da Silva Chagas (Bahia)

First

+400

Anytime

+900

Mateo Sanabria (Bahia)

First

+450

Anytime

+950

Maílton (São Paulo)

First

+475

Anytime

+1050

Ademir da Silva Santos Júnior (Bahia)

First

+650

Anytime

+1200

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

First

+650

Anytime

+1400

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

First

+700

Anytime

+1500

Michel Araujo (Bahia)

First

+750

Anytime

+1400

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

First

+750

Anytime

+1800

Jean Lucas Souza Oliveira (Bahia)

First

+800

Anytime

+1500

Cauly Souza Oliveira (Bahia)

First

+800

Anytime

+1500

Erick Luis Carvalho (Bahia)

First

+800

Anytime

+1600

Luiz Gustavo (São Paulo)

First

+850

Anytime

+1800

Rodrigo Nestor (Bahia)

First

+900

Anytime

+1700

Wendell (São Paulo)

First

+950

Anytime

+2000

Marcos Antônio Silva Santos (São Paulo)

First

+1000

Anytime

+2000

Alisson Castro (São Paulo)

First

+1150

Anytime

+2200

Pablo Maia (São Paulo)

First

+1150

Anytime

+2200

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-263

Under 0.5

+155

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-167

Under 0.5

+105

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-156

Under 0.5

-104

Willian José (Bahia)

Over 0.5

-110

Under 0.5

-156

Kayky da Silva Chagas (Bahia)

Over 0.5

-106

Under 0.5

-156

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+112

Under 0.5

-175

Mateo Sanabria (Bahia)

Over 0.5

+118

Under 0.5

-179

Ademir da Silva Santos Júnior (Bahia)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-263

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-294

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-313

Maílton (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-333

Michel Araujo (Bahia)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-333

Jean Lucas Souza Oliveira (Bahia)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-370

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-667

Luiz Gustavo (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-556

Marcos Antônio Silva Santos (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+310

Under 0.5

-625

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

Over 3.5

+108

Under 3.5

-

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

-110

Under 2.5

-

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

-103

Under 2.5

-

Willian José (Bahia)

Over 2.5

+148

Under 2.5

-

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-125

Under 1.5

-

Kayky da Silva Chagas (Bahia)

Over 1.5

-167

Under 1.5

-

Mateo Sanabria (Bahia)

Over 1.5

-120

Under 1.5

-

Ademir da Silva Santos Júnior (Bahia)

Over 1.5

+118

Under 1.5

-

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+145

Under 1.5

-

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-100

Under 1.5

-

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-

You can watch and bet on Série A games thanks to the live streaming service that’s available. This is only available to eligible sportsbook customers and is subject to geo-restrictions.

You’re never short of viewing opportunities. Check out the daily list of sporting events that are being covered through this service.

São Paulo vs Bahia Live Streaming Watch Live Geo-restrictions apply. To use the services you need to be logged in, a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours.

São Paulo vs Bahia Lineups & Team News

Avoid surprises — review the São Paulo vs Bahia team news before you bet. We’ll update you with predicted and confirmed Série A lineups plus current injury reports.

São Paulo Team Page Bahia Team Page