Tijuana vs Toluca Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 22 Oct 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Tijuana vs Toluca

Tijuana host Toluca in this Liga MX encounter at Estadio Caliente, with kick-off set for 23:00 on Wednesday 22 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Xolos to Make it a Close Encounter

Tijuana look like the value bet on the Asian Handicap against Toluca. You can get the home team at +0.5 at -120 which means a return if they draw or win, with both outcomes possible here.

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Toluca Beat Xolos Last Time Out

Club Tijuana were defeated in their last game. On the road, they suffered a 4-3 loss against Club Puebla at Estadio Cuahutehmoc. They had three shots on target and 46% possession, while Kevin Castaneda scored two goals and Mourad Daoudi bagged the other.

Deportivo Toluca made it seven straight victories after a 4-0 home win over Querétaro at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Los Diablos Rojos had seven shots on goal and recorded 63% possession, while Nicolas Castro, Paulinho, Alexis Vega and Jesus Angulo found the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have three consecutive victories against Tijuana. In their last encounter, Toluca travelled to Estadio Caliente and landed a 4-2 win. The previous 10 H2H games have included six wins for Toluca, three triumphs for Tijuana and a single draw.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Toluca	13	10	1	2	39	16	23	39:16	31
7	Tijuana	13	5	5	3	26	17	9	26:17	20

View Full Table

Xolos have 4 wins, 2 losses and 4 draws, averaging 2.3 goals from 4.4 shots on goal and 8.8 attempts. They have averaged 49.5% possession and 3.0 corners per game, with the opposition getting 1.3 goals from 4.6 shots on goal, 9.8 attempts and 5.2 corners.

Frank Boya is the top scorer with 6 goals, while Kevin Castaneda has 4 and Gilberto Mora 3. Ramiro Arciga is the leading assists maker with 5.

Deportivo Toluca have won 8, lost 1 and drawn 1, averaging 5.3 shots on goal, 10.7 attempts and 2.9 goals. Antonio Mohamed's team average 52.0% possession, 4.6 corners taken and 4.5 corners against them, while 0.9 goals have been conceded from 9.3 attempts and 3.3 shots on goal.

Paulinho is top scorer on 9, with Alexis Vega and Jesus Angulo next on 4. Alexis Vega is the top assists provider in the last 10 games with 5.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Tijuana predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): José Antonio Rodriguez (GK), Rafael Fernandez, Jesús Alejandro Gómez, Jackson Porozo, Jesus Alan Vega, Frank Boya, Ivan Tona, Ramiro Árciga, Kevin Castañeda, Gilberto Mora, Mourad El Ghezouani.

Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Santiago Simón, Bruno Méndez, Federico Pereira, Jesús Gallardo, Marcel Ruíz, Franco Romero, Jesús Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Ernesto Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

Tijuana vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tips

Our Tijuana vs Toluca tips include the main match prediction, a correct score forecast, a corners recommendation, bet builder advice and top player prop picks. Each section below offers expert insight into the key betting angles.

Match Prediction

We’re going to side with Tijuana on the Asian Handicap with +0.5 goal start. The hosts can either win or avoid defeat in this Liga MX game, with this bet looking like a value proposition at -120.

We only create the football betting tips after consulting the latest Liga MX team news along with the form of both sides. There are also stats that can be mined to good effect to come up with predictions.

Key Tijuana vs Toluca league stats:

• The +0.5 line has been covered by Tijuana in 8 consecutive games at home.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Tijuana in 14 of their last 20 games.

Xolos +0.5 Probability

According to the latest betting odds, our pick has a 54.6% chance of winning. After careful examination, our tipsters calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

There are bigger odds available to bettors who are willing to move the line. If you’re prepared for additional risk, more juice can be landed from your betting selections.

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Our Match Prediction

Tijuana Asian Hcp +0.5 @ -120 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Tijuana 1 - 1 Toluca

Our prediction is a 1-1 draw which is available at odds of +600. Correct score betting allows us to bet at bigger odds and it’s also a fun type of wager.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Kevin Castañeda Under 0.5 Shots On Target -147

Kevin Castañeda (Tijuana) can be backed to fail to have a shot on goal at -147. He looks like an attractive wager on the Shots on Target market and we recommend backing this player prop bet selection.

Latest Kevin Castañeda Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+300

First

+900

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-109

Under 0.5

-147

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Nicolas Castro to Score +330

Nicolas Castro (Toluca) has managed three goals in his past five Liga MX matches. We’ll take a chance at +330 for this Anytime Goalscorer wager as the betting odds look really appealing.

Latest Nicolas Castro Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+330

First

+950

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+117

Under 0.5

-175

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Corners Prediction

Under 9.5 Corners -120

It has been four consecutive Tijuana home matches involving the 9.5 Total Corners line not being covered, with four  straight Toluca games seeing the same thing happen. We’re happy to back the -120 when it comes to the teams falling short of the Total Corners line which looks generous.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Tijuana

Total

8.20 3.00 5.20

Home

9.40 4.70 4.70

Away

8.80 3.00 5.80

Toluca

Total

9.10 4.60 4.50

Home

8.10 4.90 3.20

Away

9.80 4.50 5.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-122

Under 9.5

-122

Tijuana Corners

Over 4.5

+110

Under 4.5

-150

Toluca Corners

Over 4.5

-150

Under 4.5

+110

Most Corners

1

+148

X

+600

2

-139

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Tijuana vs Toluca Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Latest Match Odds Suggest Toluca Victory

Deportivo Toluca are the -104 favourites on the Full-Time Result. That means a 51% chance of winning this Liga MX encounter according to the latest betting odds. Club Tijuana are trading at a bigger price than their opponents and the outsiders can be backed at +225.

Toluca can be backed alternatively on the Draw No Bet market and that means getting -200. However, if you want insurance on the underdogs instead, Tijuana are +143.

If you’re anticipating a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals has the shortest odds. An alternative angle is a Both Teams to Score bet and Yes has been chalked up at -204.

You’ll love the hundreds of markets if you want to bet on the Liga MX coupon and we advise heading to the top sports betting sites to get the football wager that you think is value.

Full-Time Result

1

+225

X

+290

2

-104

Half-Time Result

1

+260

X

+143

2

+138

Double Chance

1X

-139

12

-476

X2

-357

Draw No Bet

1

+143

2

-200

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.5

-120

2 Hcp -0.5

-102

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+140

Over 2.5

-192

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-204

No

+143

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" Shortest Odds for First Goalscorer

There’s the chance to back João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" at +370 to be the First Goalscorer. He’s the favourite and available at similar odds to find the net last instead.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

+120

Anytime

+370

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+180

Anytime

+525

Shamar Nicholson (Tijuana)

First

+240

Anytime

+700

Vitor Samuel Arantes "Vitinho" (Tijuana)

First

+270

Anytime

+750

Kevin Castañeda (Tijuana)

First

+300

Anytime

+900

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+330

Anytime

+950

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+340

Anytime

+950

Ezequiel Bullaude (Tijuana)

First

+370

Anytime

+1200

Domingo Blanco (Tijuana)

First

+380

Anytime

+1150

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1150

Ivan Tona (Tijuana)

First

+440

Anytime

+1200

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1500

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1500

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1500

Joe Corona (Tijuana)

First

+550

Anytime

+1600

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+1800

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-213

Under 0.5

+132

Shamar Nicholson (Tijuana)

Over 0.5

-159

Under 0.5

-110

Vitor Samuel Arantes "Vitinho" (Tijuana)

Over 0.5

-133

Under 0.5

-130

Kevin Castañeda (Tijuana)

Over 0.5

-109

Under 0.5

-147

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

-108

Under 1.5

-161

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-103

Under 0.5

-172

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+117

Under 0.5

-175

Ezequiel Bullaude (Tijuana)

Over 0.5

+123

Under 0.5

-200

Domingo Blanco (Tijuana)

Over 0.5

+128

Under 0.5

-204

Ivan Tona (Tijuana)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-233

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-263

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-313

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-333

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-345

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-357

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-357

Joe Corona (Tijuana)

Over 0.5

+210

Under 0.5

-370

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+230

Under 0.5

-417

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+235

Under 0.5

-455

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-625

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+310

Under 0.5

-667

Tijuana Difficult to Beat on Home Soil

Tijuana haven’t tasted defeat in eight consecutive matches at Estadio Caliente. They have five wins, three draws and two losses in the last 10 home games, scoring an average of 2.30 goals per match and conceding 1.30.

Toluca have clocked up three straight away wins. Los Diablos Rojos have six victories, two draws and two defeats in the last 10 away matches, netting an average of 2.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00.

Toluca enjoyed a 4-2 winning scoreline when last meeting Tijuana at Estadio Caliente. We’ve seen three Tijuana wins, two Toluca victories and two draws for the past 7 H2H matches at Estadio Caliente.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Tijuana Home Stats		5-3-2	3.60	2.30	1.30	7	3	6	4
Toluca Away Stats		6-2-2	3.00	2.00	1.00	5	5	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Tijuana vs Toluca Lineups & Team News

Don’t bet on Xolos vs Toluca without reviewing the latest team news. We’ll deliver both predicted and confirmed lineups for the Liga MX as well as the latest injury reports.

Tijuana Team Page Toluca Team Page