Toluca vs Mazatlán Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 27 Sep 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Mazatlán

Toluca host Mazatlán in this Liga MX game at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 21:00 on Saturday 27 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

BTTS Yes the Most Likely Outcome

There’s an opportunity to bet on BTTS Yes when it comes to this Toluca vs Mazatlán contest. The odds of -137 are really attractive and we anticipate that the teams will be among the goals.

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Mazatlán Too Strong for Toluca in Last H2H

Deportivo Toluca clinched their fourth consecutive league victory in their latest Liga MX match, defeating Monterrey 6-2 at home at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Los Diablos Rojos had 47% of possession and eight shots on target, with Paulinho scoring a hat-trick.

Mazatlán had a 2-2 draw at Estadio Nou Camp in their previous game. This was away to Club León. Victor Vucetich's side had 42% possession and seven shots on goal, while Anderson Duarte scored twice.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Mazatlán beat Toluca at home when the teams last met. It was a 2-1 scoreline at Estadio El Encanto. Toluca have five wins from the previous 10 H2H meetings, with two draws and three Mazatlán triumphs also happening.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
2	Toluca	10	7	1	2	28	13	15	28:13	22
15	Mazatlán	10	1	5	4	12	17	-5	12:17	8

View Full Table

7 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw, averaging 2.8 goals from 5.9 shots on goal and 12.2 attempts. Deportivo Toluca have had 53.4% possession and 5.4 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 1.3 goals from 3.4 shots on goal and 8.5 attempts, while being awarded 4.1 corners.

Top scorer Paulinho has found the net 6 times, with Jesus Angulo, Jesus Gallardo, Robert Morales and Helinho getting 3 goals each. Alexis Vega is the leading assists maker on 6.

Mazatlán have won 1, lost 4 and drawn 5, with an average of 5.2 attempts, 2.8 shots on goal and 1.2 goals. The Sinaloa outfit average 43.5% possession, 3.6 corners awarded and 5.6 corners against them, while 1.7 goals have been conceded from 4.5 shots on goal and 10.8 attempts.

We’ve seen Anderson Duarte, Facundo Almada, Fabio Gomes and Nicolas Benedetti score 2 goals each. Lucas Merolla has been top assists provider with 2 in the previous 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Santiago Simón, Antonio Briseño, Federico Pereira, Mauricio André Isais, Franco Romero, Marcel Ruíz, Jesús Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Ernesto Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

Mazatlán predicted lineup (4-4-1-1): Ricardo Daniel Gutiérrez (GK), Bryan Colula, Facundo Almada, Lucas Merolla, Mauro Zaleta, Edgar Yoel Bárcenas, José Joaquín Esquivel, Jordan Sierra, Omar Moreno, Nicolás Benedetti, Anderson Duarte.

Toluca vs Mazatlán Prediction & Betting Tips

Unlock a complete betting breakdown for Toluca vs Mazatlán, featuring our expert match prediction, expected final score, corners insight, standout player prop picks and a ready-to-play bet builder.

Match Prediction

Toluca and Mazatlán both look capable of finding the net and we’re really taken by the -137 available when it comes to the BTTS Yes selection. This means a nice potential return for this Liga MX encounter.

Getting the lowdown on injuries and studying the Liga MX form guide are important duties ahead of making football predictions. We also place great emphasis on the stats and a data-led approach can sometimes be effective.

Key Toluca vs Mazatlán league stats:

• BTTS Yes has been covered in 5 straight Toluca games at home.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 8 of the last 10 Toluca games at home.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 13 of the last 20 Toluca games.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 4 of the last 5 Mazatlán games.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 7 of the last 10 Mazatlán games.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 3 straight Mazatlán games.

BTTS Yes Probability

Based on the latest odds from the top bookmakers, our pick carries a 57.8% chance of winning. In the opinion of our tipsters, there’s actually a probability of success between 60-65%. This bet can therefore be backed with confidence.

There are a wide range of alternative wagers and you might consider the Total Goals option, with roughly similar odds available for an Over 2.5 pick.

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Our Match Prediction

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ -137 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 2 - 1 Mazatlán

There are betting odds of +750 that Toluca land a 2-1 victory. The correct score option is popular due to the potential return that can be achieved.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nicolas Castro to Score +230

Nicolas Castro (Toluca) has managed two goals in his past five Liga MX games. Based on the stats, we think that odds of +230 are really appealing when it comes to betting on Anytime Goalscorer.

Latest Nicolas Castro Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+230

First

+750

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-149

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Corners Prediction

Under 10.5 Corners -143

In four straight Toluca home games, the 10.5 Total Corners line has not been covered. We think the teams might fall short of the mark, with odds of -143 available when it comes to this Total Corners pick.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

9.50 5.40 4.10

Home

7.80 4.50 3.30

Away

10.20 4.70 5.50

Mazatlán

Total

9.20 3.60 5.60

Home

9.20 4.60 4.60

Away

10.40 4.10 6.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-103

Under 10.5

-143

Toluca Corners

Over 6.5

+110

Under 6.5

-150

Mazatlán Corners

Over 3.5

+120

Under 3.5

-163

Most Corners

1

-455

X

+800

2

+400

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Toluca vs Mazatlán Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Bookies Running Scared of Toluca Win

Deportivo Toluca are convincing -417 favourites to land the spoils in this Liga MX encounter, which means a 81% likelihood of securing a victory according to the current betting odds. If you want to wager on the underdog, Mazatlán have been priced up at +850.

If you think Toluca might beat Mazatlán by three or more goals, the Asian Handicap -1.75 option could be for you at -112. A two-goal victory would see half your stake win and the other half refunded.

You can find the shortest odds for Over 2.5 Goals, which means three goals or more being scored. BTTS Yes is available at -137 for anyone expecting Both Teams to Score.

No matter what Liga MX match is taking place, you will find hundreds of markets being offered. Peruse the various choices that are presented at the leading football betting sites.

Full-Time Result

1

-417

X

+500

2

+850

Half-Time Result

1

-164

X

+190

2

+575

Double Chance

1X

-3333

12

-1250

X2

+235

Draw No Bet

1

-1250

2

+550

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1.75

-112

2 Hcp +1.75

-111

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+190

Over 2.5

-270

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-137

No

-104

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" Favourite to Be First Goalscorer

There is -135 available that João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" finds the net, while he is available at +290 to register the first goal which makes him favourite.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

-135

Anytime

+290

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+120

Anytime

+400

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+230

Anytime

+700

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+230

Anytime

+750

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+290

Anytime

+900

Fábio Netto (Mazatlán)

First

+300

Anytime

+950

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+350

Anytime

+1050

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+350

Anytime

+1150

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+370

Anytime

+1200

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+380

Anytime

+1200

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1200

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+420

Anytime

+1400

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+440

Anytime

+1300

Omar Moreno (Mazatlán)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Yoel Bárcenas (Mazatlán)

First

+550

Anytime

+1500

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+550

Anytime

+1800

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+550

Anytime

+1800

Nicolás Benedetti (Mazatlán)

First

+575

Anytime

+1700

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+575

Anytime

+2000

Jesus Hernandez (Mazatlán)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

Jordan Sierra Flores (Mazatlán)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Mauro Laínez (Mazatlán)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-263

Under 0.5

+160

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

-141

Under 1.5

-123

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-133

Under 0.5

-130

Fábio Netto (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

-109

Under 0.5

-161

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-149

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+128

Under 0.5

-204

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-238

Omar Moreno (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-286

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-263

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-303

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-294

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-345

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-345

Yoel Bárcenas (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

+210

Under 0.5

-370

Nicolás Benedetti (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-385

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-476

Jesus Hernandez (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-476

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-500

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-500

Mauro Laínez (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-500

Jordan Sierra Flores (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-556

Toluca Have Won Past Three H2H Estadio Nemesio Diez Meetings

Toluca have gone unbeaten at Estadio Nemesio Diez in the last three games. Los Diablos Rojos have collected seven wins, two draws and one defeat in the past 10 home games, recording an average of 2.70 goals per match and conceding 1.30.

Mazatlán have gone without an away win in the last ten games. Victor Vucetich's team have recorded seven defeats and three draws in the previous 10 away matches, netting an average of 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90.

Toluca beat Mazatlán 3-0 when they last met at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The past 5 H2H games at Estadio Nemesio Diez have included four Toluca wins along with a single draw.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		7-2-1	4.00	2.70	1.30	8	2	8	2
Mazatlán Away Stats		0-3-7	2.60	0.70	1.90	5	5	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Toluca vs Mazatlán Lineups & Team News

Check the Toluca vs Mazatlán team news before you place your bets. Stay updated with our predicted and confirmed lineups for the Liga MX and the newest injury information.

Toluca Team Page Mazatlán Team Page