Toluca vs Mazatlán Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 27 Sep 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Mazatlán

Toluca host Mazatlán in this Liga MX game at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 21:00 on Saturday 27 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

There’s an opportunity to bet on BTTS Yes when it comes to this Toluca vs Mazatlán contest. The odds of -137 are really attractive and we anticipate that the teams will be among the goals.

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Deportivo Toluca clinched their fourth consecutive league victory in their latest Liga MX match, defeating Monterrey 6-2 at home at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Los Diablos Rojos had 47% of possession and eight shots on target, with Paulinho scoring a hat-trick.

Mazatlán had a 2-2 draw at Estadio Nou Camp in their previous game. This was away to Club León. Victor Vucetich's side had 42% possession and seven shots on goal, while Anderson Duarte scored twice.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Mazatlán beat Toluca at home when the teams last met. It was a 2-1 scoreline at Estadio El Encanto. Toluca have five wins from the previous 10 H2H meetings, with two draws and three Mazatlán triumphs also happening.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Toluca	17	11	4	2	43	18	25	43:18	37
16	Mazatlán	17	2	8	7	20	29	-9	20:29	14

View Full Table

7 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw, averaging 2.8 goals from 5.9 shots on goal and 12.2 attempts. Deportivo Toluca have had 53.4% possession and 5.4 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 1.3 goals from 3.4 shots on goal and 8.5 attempts, while being awarded 4.1 corners.

Top scorer Paulinho has found the net 6 times, with Jesus Angulo, Jesus Gallardo, Robert Morales and Helinho getting 3 goals each. Alexis Vega is the leading assists maker on 6.

Mazatlán have won 1, lost 4 and drawn 5, with an average of 5.2 attempts, 2.8 shots on goal and 1.2 goals. The Sinaloa outfit average 43.5% possession, 3.6 corners awarded and 5.6 corners against them, while 1.7 goals have been conceded from 4.5 shots on goal and 10.8 attempts.

We’ve seen Anderson Duarte, Facundo Almada, Fabio Gomes and Nicolas Benedetti score 2 goals each. Lucas Merolla has been top assists provider with 2 in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Toluca confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Santiago Simon, Antonio Briseno, Bruno Mendez, Mauricio Isais, Fernando Arce, Hector Herrera, Jesus Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Alexis Vega, Robert Morales.

Mazatlán confirmed lineup (3-5-1-1): Daniel Gutierrez (GK), Bryan Colula, Facundo Almada, Lucas Merolla, Ivan Gonzalez, Yoel Barcenas, Jose Esquivel, Jordan Sierra, Mauro Zaleta, Nicolas Benedetti, Anderson Duarte.

Toluca vs Mazatlán Prediction & Betting Tips

Unlock a complete betting breakdown for Toluca vs Mazatlán, featuring our expert match prediction, expected final score, corners insight, standout player prop picks and a ready-to-play bet builder.

Match Prediction

Toluca and Mazatlán both look capable of finding the net and we’re really taken by the -137 available when it comes to the BTTS Yes selection. This means a nice potential return for this Liga MX encounter.

Getting the lowdown on injuries and studying the Liga MX form guide are important duties ahead of making football predictions. We also place great emphasis on the stats and a data-led approach can sometimes be effective.

Key Toluca vs Mazatlán league stats:

• BTTS Yes has been covered in 5 straight Toluca games at home.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 8 of the last 10 Toluca games at home.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 13 of the last 20 Toluca games.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 4 of the last 5 Mazatlán games.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 7 of the last 10 Mazatlán games.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 3 straight Mazatlán games.

Based on the latest odds from the top bookmakers, our pick carries a 57.8% chance of winning. In the opinion of our tipsters, there’s actually a probability of success between 60-65%. This bet can therefore be backed with confidence.

There are a wide range of alternative wagers and you might consider the Total Goals option, with roughly similar odds available for an Over 2.5 pick.

Before placing a wager, see what betting offers are on the table. Our in-depth guide lists the top welcome bonuses right now.

Our Match Prediction

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ -137 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 2 - 1 Mazatlán

There are betting odds of +750 that Toluca land a 2-1 victory. The correct score option is popular due to the potential return that can be achieved.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Robert Morales Over 0.5 Shots On Target -137

Robert Morales (Toluca) can be backed to register one or more shots on goal at -137. It’s hard to turn down such attractive odds for this player when it comes to Shots on Target.

Latest Robert Morales Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+230

First

+700

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-127

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Nicolas Castro to Score +220

Nicolas Castro (Toluca) has racked up two goals in his past five Liga MX games. This statistic guides us towards Anytime Goalscorer where we’re able to back him to find the net at appealing odds of +220.

Latest Nicolas Castro Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+220

First

+750

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-109

Under 0.5

-147

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Corners Prediction

Under 10.5 Corners -143

In four straight Toluca home games, the 10.5 Total Corners line has not been covered. We think the teams might fall short of the mark, with odds of -143 available when it comes to this Total Corners pick.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

9.50 5.40 4.10

Home

7.80 4.50 3.30

Away

10.20 4.70 5.50

Mazatlán

Total

9.20 3.60 5.60

Home

9.20 4.60 4.60

Away

10.40 4.10 6.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-103

Under 10.5

-143

Toluca Corners

Over 6.5

-125

Under 6.5

-110

Mazatlán Corners

Over 2.5

-163

Under 2.5

+120

Most Corners

1

-500

X

+850

2

+430

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Toluca vs Mazatlán Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Deportivo Toluca are convincing -455 favourites to land the spoils in this Liga MX encounter, which means a 82% likelihood of securing a victory according to the current betting odds. If you want to wager on the underdog, Mazatlán have been priced up at +950.

If you think Toluca might beat Mazatlán by three or more goals, the Asian Handicap -1.75 option could be for you at -122. A two-goal victory would see half your stake win and the other half refunded.

You can find the shortest odds for Over 2.5 Goals, which means three goals or more being scored. BTTS Yes is available at -132 for anyone expecting Both Teams to Score.

No matter what Liga MX match is taking place, you will find hundreds of markets being offered. Peruse the various choices that are presented at the leading football betting sites.

Full-Time Result

1

-455

X

+525

2

+950

Half-Time Result

1

-175

X

+200

2

+600

Double Chance

1X

-5000

12

-1429

X2

+255

Draw No Bet

1

-1429

2

+600

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1.75

-122

2 Hcp +1.75

-102

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+200

Over 2.5

-286

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-132

No

-108

There is -141 available that João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" finds the net, while he is available at +280 to register the first goal which makes him favourite.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

-141

Anytime

+280

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+115

Anytime

+400

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+220

Anytime

+750

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+230

Anytime

+700

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+280

Anytime

+900

Fábio Netto (Mazatlán)

First

+320

Anytime

+1000

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+350

Anytime

+1050

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+350

Anytime

+1150

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+360

Anytime

+1200

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+380

Anytime

+1200

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1200

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+420

Anytime

+1400

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+440

Anytime

+1300

Omar Moreno (Mazatlán)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1800

Yoel Bárcenas (Mazatlán)

First

+550

Anytime

+1500

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+550

Anytime

+1800

Nicolás Benedetti (Mazatlán)

First

+575

Anytime

+1700

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+575

Anytime

+2000

Jesus Hernandez (Mazatlán)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

Mauro Laínez (Mazatlán)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Jordan Sierra Flores (Mazatlán)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-270

Under 0.5

+163

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

-147

Under 1.5

-118

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-127

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-109

Under 0.5

-147

Fábio Netto (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-164

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+123

Under 0.5

-200

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-238

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-263

Omar Moreno (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-294

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-286

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-294

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-345

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-345

Yoel Bárcenas (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

+210

Under 0.5

-370

Nicolás Benedetti (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-385

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-476

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-500

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-500

Jesus Hernandez (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-476

Mauro Laínez (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-500

Jordan Sierra Flores (Mazatlán)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-588

Toluca have gone unbeaten at Estadio Nemesio Diez in the last three games. Los Diablos Rojos have collected seven wins, two draws and one defeat in the past 10 home games, recording an average of 2.70 goals per match and conceding 1.30.

Mazatlán have gone without an away win in the last ten games. Victor Vucetich's team have recorded seven defeats and three draws in the previous 10 away matches, netting an average of 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90.

Toluca beat Mazatlán 3-0 when they last met at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The past 5 H2H games at Estadio Nemesio Diez have included four Toluca wins along with a single draw.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		7-2-1	4.00	2.70	1.30	8	2	8	2
Mazatlán Away Stats		0-3-7	2.60	0.70	1.90	5	5	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Toluca vs Mazatlán Lineups & Team News

Check the Toluca vs Mazatlán team news before you place your bets. Stay updated with our predicted and confirmed lineups for the Liga MX and the newest injury information.

Toluca Team Page Mazatlán Team Page

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