Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 10 May 2025

Toluca Look the Smart Pick

Deportivo Toluca lost the first leg 3-2 and will be looking to turn things around when they host Monterrey in the second leg of this Liga MX Clausura quarter-final tie at Estadio Nemesio Diez.

Our opinion is that Toluca will prove too strong in all departments and we’ll therefore take the -127 that they beat Monterrey. This Full-Time Result bet looks like a value proposition.

Rayados 3-2 Victors When Teams Met Last

Monterrey beat Toluca 3-2 at Estadio BBVA in the first leg, with Monterrey enjoying 54% possession and winning the shots on target 7-2. Nelson Deossa, Sergio Canales and German Berterame found the net for Rayados, while Luan Garcia and a Victor Guzman own goal were on the scoresheet for Los Diablos Rojos.

Looking back to the previous 10 H2H meetings, there has been four draws. Monterrey have won four games and Toluca two.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
3	Toluca	1	1	0	0	3	1	2	3:1	3
18	Monterrey	1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0:3	0

View Full Table

Deportivo Toluca have 7 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw, averaging 2.6 goals from 6.7 shots on goal and 11.1 attempts. They have averaged 57.0% possession and 5.2 corners per game, with their opponents scoring 1.5 goals from 4.3 shots on goal, 9.3 attempts and 4.2 corners.

Paulinho leads the way with 7 goals, while Alexis Vega and Jesus Gallardo have 6 and 3 respectively. Alexis Vega and Jesus Gallardo are the leading assists makers with 4.

Rayados have 6 victories, 3 defeats and 1 draw, with an average of 4.8 shots on goal, 9.3 attempts and 1.8 goals. Martin Demichelis' side average 53.1% possession, 3.8 corners awarded and 3.8 corners against, while 1.1 goals have been conceded from 8.2 attempts and 4.0 shots on goal.

Nelson Deossa and German Berterame top the team’s scoring charts on 5 goals, with Sergio Canales on 3. Jesus Corona and Sergio Canales are the top assist makers, managing 3 in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Toluca confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Luis Garcia (GK), Diego Barbosa, Luan Garcia, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo, Hector Herrera, Marcel Ruiz, Helinho, Jesus Angulo, Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

Monterrey confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Esteban Andrada (GK), Ricardo Chavez, Jorge Rodriguez, Victor Guzman, Gerardo Arteaga, John Medina, Fidel Ambriz, Nelson Deossa, Sergio Canales, Iker Fimbres, German Berterame.

Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction & Betting Tips

Toluca look like an attractive bet at -127 and we think they can win this Liga MX clash. We’ll place this wager with confidence and there’s plenty of juice in the available price.

The form is always taken into consideration and it’s great to combine this with team news as it becomes available. In order to provide an expert verdict, the latest stats are analysed so that we have the best information.

Key Toluca vs Monterrey league stats:

• Toluca have won 4 of their last 5 games at home.
• Toluca have won 7 of their last 10 games.

Toluca to Win Probability

According to the bookies, our pick has a 55.9% chance of landing a return. However, our experts think that the probability sits between 60-65% taking all factors into consideration. It’s the reason why we are recommending this wager.

For those who want to back Toluca at a bigger price, you can combine this selection with another pick on the Result & Both Teams to Score and Double Result markets.

Our Match Prediction

Toluca To Win @ -127 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 2 - 1 Monterrey

One bet that has caught our eye is Toluca to claim a 2-1 correct score win. This selection is available at +650 meaning that a winning selection will yield a nice return.

Corners Prediction

Toluca Under 6.5 Corners -161

Toluca have not covered the 6.5 corners line in four consecutive home games, with Monterrey conceding under 6.5 corners in their past nine away matches. The Toluca Team Corners line looks too high and we’re content to go under this number at odds of -161.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

9.40 5.20 4.20

Home

8.40 4.30 4.10

Away

9.00 5.00 4.00

Monterrey

Total

7.60 3.80 3.80

Home

8.80 4.80 4.00

Away

9.70 5.00 4.70

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-120

Under 9.5

-120

Toluca Corners

Over 5.5

-100

Under 5.5

-138

Monterrey Corners

Over 3.5

-150

Under 3.5

+110

Most Corners

1

-238

X

+600

2

+215

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Toluca vs Monterrey Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Toluca Have the Shortest Odds to Win

For this Liga MX match, the leading bookies’ betting odds mean Deportivo Toluca are the -200 favourite to win and that means a 67% chance of winning. Monterrey are the outsiders at +475 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

For those expecting a high-scoring game, Over 2.5 Goals is the shortest price.

The football betting sites offer a Draw No Bet market for all Liga MX matches and you can back Deportivo Toluca at -500 and Monterrey at +333.3.

Full-Time Result

1

-200

X

+333.3

2

+475

Half-Time Result

1

-100

X

+150

2

+450

Double Chance

1X

-699

12

-500

X2

+150

Draw No Bet

1

-500

2

+333.3

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1

-111

2 Hcp +1

-111

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+135

Over 2.5

-175

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-163

No

+120

Toluca vs Monterrey Lineups & Team News

It’s good to know about any injuries and this is reflected in our Toluca vs Rayados team news, with this leading to predicted and confirmed lineups.

If you’re looking for the latest player information, check out the Liga MX squads.

Toluca Team Page Monterrey Team Page