Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 24 Sep 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Monterrey

Toluca host Monterrey in this Liga MX clash at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 22:05 on Wednesday 24 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

There’s a strong argument for backing Over 2.5 in the Total Goals market at -164 based on the information to hand. We’re expecting at least three goals to be scored in the clash between Toluca and Monterrey.

If you're backing our Total Goals shout, take a minute to check our BetMGM review first, then grab the promo code before placing your bet.

Deportivo Toluca got a third consecutive victory in their last game. It was a 3-0 away win at Estadio Akron when playing Guadalajara. Los Diablos Rojos had 46% possession and totalled eleven shots on target, while Paulinho, Jesus Gallardo and Alexis Vega each scored one goal.

Monterrey hosted Club América in their previous game, ending in a 2-2 draw at Estadio BBVA. Domenec Torrent's team recorded six shots on goal and had 51% possession, while Fidel Ambriz and Sergio Canales were on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca won the last clash between the pair. Enjoying a 2-1 home triumph when facing Monterrey at Estadio Nemesio Diez. In the past 10 H2H meetings, we have seen four draws and three wins each.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Toluca	17	11	4	2	43	18	25	43:18	37
5	Monterrey	17	9	4	4	33	29	4	33:29	31

View Full Table

Deportivo Toluca have 7 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw, averaging 2.4 goals from 5.4 shots on goal and 12.1 attempts. They have averaged 52.4% possession and 5.2 corners per game, with the opposition getting 1.1 goals from 3.0 shots on goal, 7.9 attempts and 4.0 corners.

The five top scorers are Paulinho, Jesus Gallardo, Alexis Vega, Robert Morales and Helinho, with these players all scoring 3 goals. Alexis Vega is the leading assists maker with 6.

Rayados have 7 victories, 2 defeats and 1 draw, with an average of 2.1 goals from 9.7 attempts and 4.9 shots on goal. There’s been an average of 58.6% possession, 5.1 corners awarded and 5.0 corners against them, while they’ve conceded 1.3 goals from 7.2 attempts and 3.6 shots on goal.

The leading goalscorers have been Sergio Canales on 6, German Berterame with 5 and Lucas Ocampos 4. Lucas Ocampos has been top assists provider with 4 in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Toluca confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Santiago Simon, Antonio Briseno, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo, Marcel Ruiz, Franco Romero, Jesus Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

Monterrey confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Santiago Mele (GK), Erick Aguirre, Sergio Ramos, John Medina, Luis Reyes, Jorge Rodriguez, Fidel Ambriz, Sergio Canales, Oliver Torres, Jesus Corona, German Berterame.

Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction & Betting Tips

We’ve lined up expert Toluca vs Monterrey betting tips, from our match prediction and correct score call to corners betting insight, best player prop picks and bet builder advice. Read on for the full breakdown.

Match Prediction

The numbers suggest that we’ll see the net bulge a few times during this Liga MX encounter. If you agree with our prediction, you can get odds of -164 when it comes to backing Over 2.5 Goals.

The football betting tips are created after keeping tabs on the latest Liga MX team news along with the form guide. We also delve into the latest stats which can provide a barometer for how the action might play out.

Key Toluca vs Monterrey league stats:

• The 2.5 line has been covered in 8 of the last 10 Toluca games at home.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 14 of the last 20 Toluca games at home.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in the last 3 Toluca games.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 8 of the last 10 Monterrey games.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 4 of the last 5 Monterrey games.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in the last 2 games between these teams.

The odds at the best football bookies suggest our pick has a 62.1% chance of winning. Our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 65-70%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

There are lots of betting alternatives and that includes the BTTS Yes option on the Both Teams to Score market. It’s a nice simple bet where you can land a return if both teams score at least one goal before the full-time whistle.

Before placing your bet, explore our exclusive betting promo codes, welcome offers, and best free bets for today.

Our Match Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals @ -164 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 2 - 2 Monterrey

There are attractive odds of +1050 when it comes to a 2-2 draw being played out. This is a risky but potentially more rewarding bet, with this correct score option providing appeal.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Sergio Canales Over 0.5 Shots On Target -115

Sergio Canales (Monterrey) can be wagered to finish with one or more shots on goal at -115. When it comes to wagering Shots on Target, we think the betting odds really stand out for this pick.

Latest Sergio Canales Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+250

First

+700

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-111

Under 0.5

-143

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Jesús Gallardo to Score +550

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca) has managed two goals in his past five Liga MX games. This data directs us to the Anytime Goalscorer market where we can bet him to find the net at attractive odds of +550.

Latest Jesús Gallardo Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+450

First

+1300

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-286

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Corners Prediction

Monterrey Under 4.5 Corners -150

Monterrey have not covered the 4.5 corners line in 4 of the past 5 games, while the last 5 Toluca home matches have seen them concede an average of 2.20 corners. We can use these stats to our advantage, with odds of -150 that Monterrey fall short when it comes to the Team Corners line.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

9.20 5.20 4.00

Home

7.50 4.30 3.20

Away

10.20 4.70 5.50

Monterrey

Total

10.10 5.10 5.00

Home

8.20 3.70 4.50

Away

9.50 5.20 4.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-152

Under 9.5

+102

Toluca Corners

Over 5.5

+110

Under 5.5

-150

Monterrey Corners

Over 3.5

-163

Under 3.5

+120

Most Corners

1

-217

X

+650

2

+220

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Toluca vs Monterrey Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Deportivo Toluca are regarded as having a 61% chance of winning this Liga MX clash in the eyes of the bookies. It means that their current betting odds are -159. The market implies that Monterrey are the most unlikely to win at +350.

Toluca -0.75 are -125 against Monterrey on the Asian Handicap. If the favourites win by a goal, you win with half your stake and get the rest refunded. If they win by two or more, you get a full payout.

If you’re anticipating a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals has the shortest odds. If both teams to score is something you think will happen, there’s an opportunity to wager Yes at -179 on the BTTS market.

It’s fantastic to find hundreds of markets on offer for Liga MX matches. You simply need to visit the best betting apps and select from the various football options that are presented.

Full-Time Result

1

-159

X

+320

2

+350

Half-Time Result

1

+108

X

+150

2

+340

Double Chance

1X

-625

12

-588

X2

+108

Draw No Bet

1

-345

2

+235

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.75

-125

2 Hcp +0.75

-100

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+140

Over 2.5

-192

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-179

No

+123

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is priced at +340 when it comes to First Goalscorer which makes him the favourite, while he’s also available at odds of +105 to find the net anytime.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

+105

Anytime

+340

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+160

Anytime

+480

Germán Berterame (Monterrey)

First

+190

Anytime

+575

Sergio Canales (Monterrey)

First

+250

Anytime

+700

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+290

Anytime

+800

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+300

Anytime

+900

Lucas Ocampos (Monterrey)

First

+380

Anytime

+1100

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+390

Anytime

+1050

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+1200

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+475

Anytime

+1300

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+480

Anytime

+1400

Sergio Ramos (Monterrey)

First

+500

Anytime

+1500

Jesús Corona (Monterrey)

First

+525

Anytime

+1500

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+550

Anytime

+1600

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+550

Anytime

+1700

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2200

Érick Aguirre (Monterrey)

First

+750

Anytime

+2000

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Fidel Ambriz (Monterrey)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Oliver Torres (Monterrey)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Germán Berterame (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

-192

Under 0.5

+108

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-161

Under 0.5

+107

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-119

Under 0.5

-147

Sergio Canales (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

-111

Under 0.5

-143

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

+120

Under 1.5

-217

Lucas Ocampos (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+128

Under 0.5

-227

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+130

Under 0.5

-213

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-286

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-286

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-333

Sergio Ramos (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-345

Jesús Corona (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-357

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-385

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-400

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+225

Under 0.5

-417

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+255

Under 0.5

-476

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-500

Érick Aguirre (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-588

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+320

Under 0.5

-667

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+330

Under 0.5

-769

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+330

Under 0.5

-714

Fidel Ambriz (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+340

Under 0.5

-833

Oliver Torres (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+350

Under 0.5

-833

Toluca have managed seven victories, two draws and one loss in the last 10 home matches, recording an average of 2.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30.

Monterrey have now managed four away wins on the bounce. They have recorded six victories, three defeats and one draw in the previous 10 away matches, netting an average of 1.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20.

When the sides last met at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca beat Monterrey 2-1. The past 8 H2H meetings at Estadio Nemesio Diez have included four Toluca victories, three draws and one Monterrey win.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		7-2-1	3.70	2.40	1.30	8	2	8	2
Monterrey Away Stats		6-1-3	2.90	1.70	1.20	6	4	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Toluca vs Monterrey Lineups & Team News

Before placing any bets on Toluca vs Rayados, check the team news first. We’ll update you with predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups plus current injury reports.

Toluca Team Page Monterrey Team Page

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