Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 24 Sep 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Monterrey

Toluca host Monterrey in this Liga MX clash at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 22:05 on Wednesday 24 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Expect a Generous Number of Goals

There’s a strong argument for backing Over 2.5 in the Total Goals market at -164 based on the information to hand. We’re expecting at least three goals to be scored in the clash between Toluca and Monterrey.

If you're backing our Total Goals shout, take a minute to check our BetMGM review first, then grab the promo code before placing your bet.

Toluca 2-1 Winners in Most Recent H2H

Deportivo Toluca got a third consecutive victory in their last game. It was a 3-0 away win at Estadio Akron when playing Guadalajara. Los Diablos Rojos had 46% possession and totalled eleven shots on target, while Paulinho, Jesus Gallardo and Alexis Vega each scored one goal.

Monterrey hosted Club América in their previous game, ending in a 2-2 draw at Estadio BBVA. Domenec Torrent's team recorded six shots on goal and had 51% possession, while Fidel Ambriz and Sergio Canales were on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca won the last clash between the pair. Enjoying a 2-1 home triumph when facing Monterrey at Estadio Nemesio Diez. In the past 10 H2H meetings, we have seen four draws and three wins each.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
2	Monterrey	9	7	1	1	20	11	9	20:11	22
3	Toluca	9	6	1	2	22	11	11	22:11	19

View Full Table

Deportivo Toluca have 7 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw, averaging 2.4 goals from 5.4 shots on goal and 12.1 attempts. They have averaged 52.4% possession and 5.2 corners per game, with the opposition getting 1.1 goals from 3.0 shots on goal, 7.9 attempts and 4.0 corners.

The five top scorers are Paulinho, Jesus Gallardo, Alexis Vega, Robert Morales and Helinho, with these players all scoring 3 goals. Alexis Vega is the leading assists maker with 6.

Rayados have 7 victories, 2 defeats and 1 draw, with an average of 2.1 goals from 9.7 attempts and 4.9 shots on goal. There’s been an average of 58.6% possession, 5.1 corners awarded and 5.0 corners against them, while they’ve conceded 1.3 goals from 7.2 attempts and 3.6 shots on goal.

The leading goalscorers have been Sergio Canales on 6, German Berterame with 5 and Lucas Ocampos 4. Lucas Ocampos has been top assists provider with 4 in the previous 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Luis García (GK), Diego Barbosa, Antonio Briseño, Federico Pereira, Jesús Gallardo, Franco Romero, Marcel Ruíz, Jesús Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Ernesto Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

Monterrey predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Santiago Mele (GK), Ricardo Chávez, Víctor Andrés Guzmán, Sergio Ramos, Gerardo Arteaga, Jorge Rodriguez, Fidel Ambríz, Sergio Canales, Oliver Torres, Lucas Ariel Ocampos, Anthony Martial.

Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction & Betting Tips

We’ve lined up expert Toluca vs Monterrey betting tips, from our match prediction and correct score call to corners betting insight, best player prop picks and bet builder advice. Read on for the full breakdown.

Match Prediction

The numbers suggest that we’ll see the net bulge a few times during this Liga MX encounter. If you agree with our prediction, you can get odds of -164 when it comes to backing Over 2.5 Goals.

The football betting tips are created after keeping tabs on the latest Liga MX team news along with the form guide. We also delve into the latest stats which can provide a barometer for how the action might play out.

Key Toluca vs Monterrey league stats:

• The 2.5 line has been covered in 8 of the last 10 Toluca games at home.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 14 of the last 20 Toluca games at home.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in the last 3 Toluca games.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 8 of the last 10 Monterrey games.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 4 of the last 5 Monterrey games.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in the last 2 games between these teams.

Over 2.5 Probability

The odds at the best football bookies suggest our pick has a 62.1% chance of winning. Our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 65-70%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

There are lots of betting alternatives and that includes the BTTS Yes option on the Both Teams to Score market. It’s a nice simple bet where you can land a return if both teams score at least one goal before the full-time whistle.

Before placing your bet, explore our exclusive betting promo codes, welcome offers, and best free bets for today.

Our Match Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals @ -164 Watch Live Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 2 - 2 Monterrey

There are attractive odds of +950 when it comes to a 2-2 draw being played out. This is a risky but potentially more rewarding bet, with this correct score option providing appeal.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Sergio Canales Over 0.5 Shots On Target -115

Sergio Canales (Monterrey) can be wagered to finish with one or more shots on goal at -115. When it comes to wagering Shots on Target, we think the betting odds really stand out for this pick.

Latest Sergio Canales Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+280

First

+800

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-115

Under 0.5

-135

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

---

Jesús Gallardo to Score +550

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca) has managed two goals in his past five Liga MX games. This data directs us to the Anytime Goalscorer market where we can bet him to find the net at attractive odds of +550.

Latest Jesús Gallardo Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+550

First

+1500

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-455

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Corners Prediction

Monterrey Under 4.5 Corners -150

Monterrey have not covered the 4.5 corners line in 4 of the past 5 games, while the last 5 Toluca home matches have seen them concede an average of 2.20 corners. We can use these stats to our advantage, with odds of -150 that Monterrey fall short when it comes to the Team Corners line.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

9.20 5.20 4.00

Home

7.50 4.30 3.20

Away

10.20 4.70 5.50

Monterrey

Total

10.10 5.10 5.00

Home

8.20 3.70 4.50

Away

9.50 5.20 4.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-139

Under 9.5

-108

Toluca Corners

Over 5.5

+120

Under 5.5

-163

Monterrey Corners

Over 4.5

+110

Under 4.5

-150

Most Corners

1

-172

X

+650

2

+175

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Toluca vs Monterrey Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Toluca Betting Favourites to Win

Deportivo Toluca are regarded as having a 54% chance of winning this Liga MX clash in the eyes of the bookies. It means that their current betting odds are -118. The market implies that Monterrey are the most unlikely to win at +265.

You can choose Toluca -0.5 or Monterrey +0.5 at respective Asian Handicap odds of -114 and -109. The former is the same as betting the favourites to win, with the latter giving you a return if it’s a draw.

If you’re anticipating a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals has the shortest odds. If both teams to score is something you think will happen, there’s an opportunity to wager Yes at -172 on the BTTS market.

It’s fantastic to find hundreds of markets on offer for Liga MX matches. You simply need to visit the best betting apps and select from the various football options that are presented.

Full-Time Result

1

-118

X

+280

2

+265

Half-Time Result

1

+138

X

+135

2

+280

Double Chance

1X

-435

12

-476

X2

-125

Draw No Bet

1

-238

2

+170

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

-114

2 Hcp +0.5

-109

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+120

Over 2.5

-164

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-172

No

+120

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" Favourite to Score the First Goal

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is priced at +370 when it comes to First Goalscorer which makes him the favourite, while he’s also available at odds of +120 to find the net anytime.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

+120

Anytime

+370

Germán Berterame (Monterrey)

First

+180

Anytime

+500

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+180

Anytime

+525

Sergio Canales (Monterrey)

First

+280

Anytime

+800

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+340

Anytime

+950

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+350

Anytime

+950

Lucas Ocampos (Monterrey)

First

+350

Anytime

+1050

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+420

Anytime

+1150

Sergio Ramos (Monterrey)

First

+475

Anytime

+1400

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+480

Anytime

+1300

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1500

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Jesús Corona (Monterrey)

First

+500

Anytime

+1300

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1600

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+550

Anytime

+1500

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1700

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Érick Aguirre (Monterrey)

First

+700

Anytime

+1800

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Fidel Ambriz (Monterrey)

First

+800

Anytime

+2000

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Oliver Torres (Monterrey)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Germán Berterame (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

-227

Under 0.5

+128

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-152

Under 0.5

-103

Sergio Canales (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

-115

Under 0.5

-135

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+117

Under 0.5

-208

Lucas Ocampos (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+117

Under 0.5

-204

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

+133

Under 1.5

-244

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+143

Under 0.5

-227

Sergio Ramos (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-303

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-313

Jesús Corona (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-333

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+205

Under 0.5

-370

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-385

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+235

Under 0.5

-435

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-455

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-455

Érick Aguirre (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+265

Under 0.5

-526

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-526

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-526

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+330

Under 0.5

-769

Oliver Torres (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+330

Under 0.5

-714

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+340

Under 0.5

-769

Fidel Ambriz (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+340

Under 0.5

-769

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+350

Under 0.5

-769

Past Five H2H Estadio Nemesio Diez Meetings Have Seen Toluca Unbeaten

Toluca have managed seven victories, two draws and one loss in the last 10 home matches, recording an average of 2.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30.

Monterrey have now managed four away wins on the bounce. They have recorded six victories, three defeats and one draw in the previous 10 away matches, netting an average of 1.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20.

When the sides last met at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca beat Monterrey 2-1. The past 8 H2H meetings at Estadio Nemesio Diez have included four Toluca victories, three draws and one Monterrey win.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		7-2-1	3.70	2.40	1.30	8	2	8	2
Monterrey Away Stats		6-1-3	2.90	1.70	1.20	6	4	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

It’s great to access Liga MX live streaming on your iPhone, iPad or Android device, with desktop also an option. Place a recent bet or have a funded sportsbook account.

The leading betting apps stream many of the latest events across a wide range of sports and leagues.

Deportivo Toluca vs Monterrey Live Streaming Watch Live Geo-restrictions apply. To use the services you need to be logged in, a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours.

Toluca vs Monterrey Lineups & Team News

Before placing any bets on Toluca vs Rayados, check the team news first. We’ll update you with predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups plus current injury reports.

Toluca Team Page Monterrey Team Page