Toluca vs Necaxa Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 12 Jul 2025

Liga MX Apertura Betting Preview: Toluca vs Necaxa

Toluca host Necaxa in this Liga MX Apertura match at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 21:00 on Saturday 12 July 2025. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Toluca Could Prove Too Strong

Our opinion is that Toluca will prove too strong in all departments and we’ll therefore take the -154 at BetMGM that they beat Necaxa. This Full-Time Result bet looks like a value proposition.

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Toluca 5-2 Victors When Teams Met Last

Deportivo Toluca claimed victory in their most recent match, earning a 2-0 home win over Club América at Estadio Nemesio Diez in the second leg of the Clausura final — securing a 2-0 aggregate triumph. Los Diablos Rojos recorded just 37% possession and had three shots on target, with Luan Garcia and Alexis Vega scoring one goal apiece.

In their previous match, Club Necaxa drew 2-2 with Tigres UANL at El Volcán in the second leg of the Clausura quarter-final. Fernando Gago's team recorded 47% possession and managed seven shots on goal, with Agustin Palavecino and Tomas Badaloni on the scoresheet. With the quarter-final tie level at 2-2 on aggregate, Tigres progressed due to their higher seed.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have landed victories in their last two encounters against Necaxa. There was a 5-2 home triumph at Estadio Nemesio Diez after winning 3-1 away at Estadio Victoria. The previous 10 H2H matches have ended up with six Toluca wins, one Necaxa victory and three draws.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
6	Toluca	6	3	1	2	13	9	4	13:9	10
14	Necaxa	6	1	2	3	6	10	-4	6:10	5

View Full Table

Deportivo Toluca have 6 wins, 1 loss and 3 draws, averaging 1.8 goals from 5.0 shots on goal and 9.4 attempts. Antonio Mohamed's side have averaged 47.8% possession and 3.8 corners per game, with their opponents scoring 1.0 goals from 3.0 shots on goal, 7.8 attempts and 4.7 corners.

Paulinho is the top scorer with 6 goals, Alexis Vega has 4, with Luan Garcia and Jesus Gallardo on 2. Alexis Vega and Marcel Ruiz have been top assistors with 4.

Club Necaxa have 4 victories, 3 defeats and 3 draws, with an average of 12.1 attempts, 6.1 shots on goal and 1.7 goals. The Aguascalientes outfit average 45.8% possession, 5.2 corners in their favour and 5.2 corners against, while 1.8 goals have been conceded from 5.6 shots on goal and 11.1 attempts.

Jose Paradela has scored 4 goals, followed by Agustin Palavecino and Pavel Perez on 3. Look no further than Jose Paradela for the top assist maker (5) in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Toluca confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Luis Garcia (GK), Diego Barbosa, Luan Garcia, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo, Franco Romero, Marcel Ruiz, Juan Dominguez, Jesus Angulo, Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

Necaxa confirmed lineup (3-4-3): Ezequiel Unsain (GK), Alexis Pena, Diego De Buen, Jesus Alcantar, Kevin Rosero, Jose Rodriguez, Agustin Palavecino, Cristian Calderon, Ricardo Monreal, Diber Cambindo, Pavel Perez.

Toluca vs Necaxa Prediction & Betting Tips

We cover the key Toluca vs Necaxa betting angles, showcasing our expert match prediction, best corners pick, correct score selection and a bet builder tailored for value.

Match Prediction

Toluca look like an attractive bet at -154 and we think they can win this Liga MX clash. We’ll place this wager with confidence and there’s plenty of juice in the available price.

The Liga MX experts at Sportsgambler.com always keep close tabs on team news. We also use a form guide for our football betting tips along with checking out the stats that are going to help inform our final decision.

Key Toluca vs Necaxa league stats:

• Toluca have won 9 of their last 10 games at home.
• Toluca have won 4 of their last 5 games at home.
• Toluca have won 3 consecutive games at home.
• Toluca have won the last 2 games between these teams.

Toluca to Win Probability

The best football bookies are estimating that there is a 60.6% likelihood of this pick landing a return. However, our experts think that the probability sits between 65-70% taking all factors into consideration. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this wager.

There are lots of different betting options when it comes to backing Toluca to win. This includes Asian Handicap, Double Result and Result & Both Teams to Score, with bigger odds available.

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Our Match Prediction

Toluca To Win @ -154 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 2 - 0 Necaxa

You can secure odds of +750 that Toluca are able to land a 2-0 victory. Correct score betting can provide plenty of fun and it’s a way of landing bigger odds.

Corners Prediction

Toluca Under 5.5 Corners -106

Toluca have failed to cover the 5.5 corners line in seven consecutive home matches, with Necaxa conceding under 5.5 corners in their past five games. For Team Corners, we’re expecting Toluca to fall short and you can land odds of -106.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

8.50 3.80 4.70

Home

8.10 4.10 4.00

Away

9.50 5.20 4.30

Necaxa

Total

10.40 5.20 5.20

Home

11.70 6.30 5.40

Away

9.70 4.20 5.50

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-102

Under 10.5

-147

Toluca Corners

Over 6.5

+102

Under 6.5

-161

Necaxa Corners

Over 3.5

-143

Under 3.5

-110

Most Corners

1

-244

X

+800

2

+245

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Toluca vs Necaxa Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Latest 1x2 Odds Suggest Toluca Victory

With a roughly 65% chance of triumphing, the bookmakers aren’t giving too much away with their -189 betting odds for Deportivo Toluca winning this Liga MX clash. If you want to back the outsider, Club Necaxa are available at +410.

There is odds of -118 if you want to back Toluca -1 on the Asian Handicap. A victory of two or more goals against Necaxa equals a full payout, with a one-goal triumph seeing a full refund.

Over 2.5 Goals is available at shorter odds than Under 2.5 Goals as things stand. Both Teams to Score is one of the top markets and the BTTS Yes option can be wagered at -161.

If you visit one of the recommended sports betting sites, it’s fantastic to access hundreds of markets for whichever Liga MX match appeals. Scan through the choices and pick your football wager.

Full-Time Result

1

-189

X

+320

2

+410

Half-Time Result

1

-100

X

+145

2

+390

Double Chance

1X

-833

12

-625

X2

+128

Draw No Bet

1

-476

2

+280

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1

-118

2 Hcp +1

-120

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+128

Over 2.5

-185

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-161

No

+112

Toluca Unbeaten at Home in Past Ten Games

Toluca haven’t tasted defeat in ten consecutive matches at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Los Diablos Rojos have managed nine wins and one draw in the last 10 home games, scoring an average of 2.70 goals per match and conceding 0.90.

Necaxa are unbeaten in the last four games on their travels. Fernando Gago's team have racked up five wins, three defeats and two draws in the last 10 away matches, scoring an average of 2.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50.

The past meeting at Estadio Nemesio Diez saw Toluca defeat Necaxa 5-2. There have been three Toluca victories, two draws and one Necaxa win in the previous 6 H2H meetings at Estadio Nemesio Diez.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		9-1-0	3.60	2.70	0.90	8	2	6	4
Necaxa Away Stats		5-2-3	3.50	2.00	1.50	8	2	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Toluca vs Necaxa Lineups & Team News

Make sure you're up to date on the Toluca vs Rayos team news before betting. We’ll deliver both predicted and confirmed lineups for the Liga MX as well as the latest injury reports.

Toluca Team Page Club Necaxa Team Page