Toluca vs Pachuca Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 26 Oct 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Pachuca

Toluca host Pachuca in this Liga MX game at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 20:00 on Sunday 26 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

We’re Keen on Toluca to Cover the Line

Toluca can be taken at -1 on the Asian Handicap. There are odds of -106, with money back if they beat Pachuca by a single goal and a full return if there’s a winning margin of two or more goals.

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Toluca Too Good for Tuzos in Last H2H

Deportivo Toluca drew on the road in their last game. A 0-0 scoreline was played out against Club Tijuana at Estadio Caliente. Los Diablos Rojos had the majority of the ball enjoying 63% possession and two shots on target.

Pachuca lost when last in action. In a home game at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, they were turned over 2-1 by Tigres UANL. Pachuca had 53% of possession and three shots on goal, while Kenedy was on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have gone unbeaten in their past five meetings with Pachuca. In the last encounter, Toluca claimed a 3-2 victory when hosting at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The previous 10 H2H games have included five wins for Toluca, four triumphs for Pachuca and a single draw.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Toluca	14	10	2	2	39	16	23	39:16	32
7	Pachuca	14	6	3	5	19	17	2	19:17	21

View Full Table

Deportivo Toluca have 7 wins, 1 loss and 2 draws, averaging 2.7 goals from 10.7 attempts and 5.2 shots on goal. Antonio Mohamed's team have averaged 54.3% possession and 4.9 corners per game, conceding 0.9 goals and 3.9 corners from 9.1 attempts and 3.2 shots on goal.

Top scorer is Paulinho on 8 goals, while Alexis Vega and Jesus Angulo have both racked up 4. The leading assistor is Alexis Vega with 5.

Tuzos have 2 victories, 5 defeats and 3 draws, with an average of 0.9 goals from 9.7 attempts and 3.7 shots on goal. There’s been an average of 55.5% possession, 5.6 corners awarded and 4.0 corners against them, while they’ve conceded 1.5 goals from 8.0 attempts and 4.0 shots on goal.

Kenedy and Oussama Idrissi have scored 2 goals, followed by Luis Quinones with 1. Alonso Aceves has been the top assist maker with 1 in the last 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Luis García (GK), Santiago Simón, Federico Pereira, Everardo del Villar, Jesús Gallardo, Marcel Ruíz, Franco Romero, Jesús Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Ernesto Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

Pachuca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Carlos Moreno (GK), Brian García, Sergio Barreto, Jorge Berlanga, Alonso Aceves, Alán Bautista, William Carvalho, Kenedy, Víctor Guzmán, Luis Enrique Quinones, Enner Valencia.

Toluca vs Pachuca Prediction & Betting Tips

Our Toluca vs Pachuca betting tips provide expert coverage of all major angles, including our main match prediction, top player prop picks, correct score recommendation, corners betting angle and best bet builder insights.

Match Prediction

Toluca should be able to beat Pachuca by two goals or more. We’ll back the favourites -1 at -106 for this Liga MX encounter, with the stats suggesting there’s a good chance of a return.

Injuries and suspensions are studied by the team at Sportsgambler.com. Our football predictions also come from studying the latest Liga MX form, with the numbers playing a huge part before the tips are decided.

Key Toluca vs Pachuca league stats:

• The -1 line has been covered by Toluca in 4 consecutive games at home.
• The -1 line has been covered by Toluca in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The -1 line has been covered by Toluca in 12 of their last 20 games.

Toluca -1 Probability

The best betting apps make it a 51.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, our research has found that the actual probability is between 55-60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.

Buying and selling goals at a betting site gives you the opportunity to choose different lines. The former will mean shorter odds, while a sell leads to a bigger potential return.

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Our Match Prediction

Toluca Asian Hcp -1 @ -106 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 2 - 0 Pachuca

Toluca are available to back at +750 to secure a 2-0 victory. This is a risky but potentially more rewarding bet, with this correct score option providing appeal.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Enner Valencia Over 0.5 Shots On Target -147

Enner Valencia (Pachuca) can be backed to register a minimum of one shot on goal at -147. For those wanting to wager on Shots on Target, this player looks really appealing at the odds.

Latest Enner Valencia Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+240

First

+700

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-109

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Nicolas Castro to Score +300

Nicolas Castro (Toluca) has scored three goals in his past five Liga MX games. There are odds of +300 on offer for this Anytime Goalscorer bet and we think this is an attractive wager for the player to be on the scoresheet.

Latest Nicolas Castro Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+300

First

+900

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-175

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Corners Prediction

Under 9.5 Corners -111

It’s been five consecutive Toluca matches where the 9.5 Total Corners line has not been covered, while we’ve seen an average of 8.80 corners in the last five Pachuca games. There is juice when it comes to going under the Total Corners line and this is priced at -111.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

8.80 4.90 3.90

Home

8.10 4.90 3.20

Away

8.80 4.30 4.50

Pachuca

Total

9.60 5.60 4.00

Home

10.60 6.60 4.00

Away

9.00 4.50 4.50

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-135

Under 9.5

-111

Toluca Corners

Over 5.5

+110

Under 5.5

-150

Pachuca Corners

Over 3.5

-150

Under 3.5

+110

Most Corners

1

-161

X

+600

2

+165

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Toluca vs Pachuca Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Latest Odds Suggest Toluca Win

The favourites have a 64% likelihood of success according to the bookies, with Deportivo Toluca chalked up at -179 to land a win in this Liga MX clash. If you’re searching for a different slant, Pachuca are available at +390.

You can back Toluca at +102 on the Half-Time Result market, meaning you need them to be ahead at the break. Pachuca are +350 and the draw is chalked up at +155.

For those expecting a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals is the shortest price. For those expecting both sides to find the net, Both Teams to Score Yes is available at -175.

For those visiting the best betting sites, you are guaranteed a fantastic service for all the Liga MX games. The hundreds of football markets always ensure lots of choice.

Full-Time Result

1

-179

X

+335

2

+390

Half-Time Result

1

+102

X

+155

2

+350

Double Chance

1X

-769

12

-625

X2

+120

Draw No Bet

1

-455

2

+260

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1

-106

2 Hcp +1

-116

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+150

Over 2.5

-208

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-175

No

+123

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is the First Goalscorer Favourite

You will find favourite João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" at +340 to be First Goalscorer and there’s also the chance to get -100 that he finds the net any time.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

-100

Anytime

+340

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+150

Anytime

+475

Jhonder Cádiz (Pachuca)

First

+210

Anytime

+600

Enner Valencia (Pachuca)

First

+240

Anytime

+700

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+290

Anytime

+850

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+300

Anytime

+900

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+350

Anytime

+1000

Gastón Togni (Pachuca)

First

+380

Anytime

+1100

Javier López (Pachuca)

First

+420

Anytime

+1200

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+430

Anytime

+1200

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+430

Anytime

+1300

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+1400

Oussama Idrissi (Pachuca)

First

+450

Anytime

+1200

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+460

Anytime

+1300

Alán Bautista (Pachuca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1500

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1700

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+575

Anytime

+1900

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+2000

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2200

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2200

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-222

Under 0.5

+140

Jhonder Cádiz (Pachuca)

Over 0.5

-167

Under 0.5

+106

Enner Valencia (Pachuca)

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-109

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

-111

Under 1.5

-156

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-104

Under 0.5

-167

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-175

Gastón Togni (Pachuca)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-192

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-227

Javier López (Pachuca)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-227

Oussama Idrissi (Pachuca)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-263

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-286

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-333

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-333

Alán Bautista (Pachuca)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-333

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-333

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-333

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+230

Under 0.5

-417

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+230

Under 0.5

-417

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-588

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+295

Under 0.5

-625

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-625

Toluca Have the Winning Habit at Home

Toluca have managed four consecutive victories at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Los Diablos Rojos have secured eight wins, one draw and one defeat in the last 10 home matches, scoring an average of 3.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10.

Pachuca have gone unbeaten away in the last three games. Pachuca have collected four wins, three draws and three defeats in the past 10 away games, recording an average of 1.50 goals per match and conceding 1.40.

Toluca beat Pachuca 3-2 when the teams last met at Estadio Nemesio Diez. There have been four Pachuca triumphs and three Toluca wins in the previous 7 H2H meetings at Estadio Nemesio Diez.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		8-1-1	4.10	3.00	1.10	8	2	7	3
Pachuca Away Stats		4-3-3	2.90	1.50	1.40	6	4	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Toluca vs Pachuca Lineups & Team News

Before placing any bets on Toluca vs Tuzos, check the team news first. We’ll bring you the expected and confirmed lineups for the Liga MX along with up-to-date injury news.

Toluca Team Page Pachuca Team Page