Toluca vs Puebla Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 13 Sep 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Puebla

Toluca host Puebla in this Liga MX meeting at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 23:00 on Saturday 13 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

An Easy Win for the Favourites?

To get more juice in the Toluca odds against Puebla, why not back the hosts at -102 on the Asian Handicap -1.75. Our stake is split between -1.5 and -2.0, with a three goal winning margin the desired outcome.

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Toluca 3-0 Victors When Teams Met Last

Deportivo Toluca won their last game. It was on the road where Atlético San Luis were beaten 3-1 at Estadio Alfonso Lastras. Los Diablos Rojos had 47% possession and managed five shots on target, with Alexis Vega, Roman Torres (own goal) and Robert Morales each scoring one goal.

Club Puebla lost when last in action. In a home game at Estadio Cuahutehmoc, they were turned over 4-2 by Monterrey. Pablo Guede's side recorded just 36% possession and had three shots on goal, with Ricardo Marin and Carlos Baltazar finding the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have claimed back-to-back wins over Puebla. On their travels, a 3-0 win was secured at Estadio Cuahutehmoc and that was preceded by a 5-0 home success at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The past 10 H2H matches have resulted in four Toluca wins, three draws and three Puebla victories.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
5	Toluca	7	4	1	2	16	10	6	16:10	13
18	Puebla	7	1	1	5	6	18	-12	6:18	4

View Full Table

6 wins, 2 losses and 2 draws, averaging 2.1 goals from 4.9 shots on goal and 10.4 attempts. Deportivo Toluca have had 51.2% possession and 4.5 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 1.0 goals from 2.8 shots on goal and 7.3 attempts, while being awarded 3.5 corners.

Alexis Vega is the top scorer with 4 goals, while Robert Morales and Helinho both have 3. Alexis Vega is the leading assists maker on 5.

Club Puebla have 1 victory, 8 defeats and 1 draw, averaging 8.6 attempts, 3.0 shots on goal and 0.6 goals. Pablo Guede's team average 49.1% possession, 4.4 corners awarded and 3.8 corners against them, while 2.1 goals have been conceded from 4.1 shots on goal and 9.7 attempts.

Ricardo Marin has scored 2 goals, followed by Carlos Baltazar, Emiliano Gomez, Esteban Lozano and Edgar Guerra on 1. Emiliano Gomez has managed 2 assists in the last 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Diego Barbosa, Federico Pereira, Bruno Méndez, Jesús Gallardo, Marcel Ruíz, Franco Romero, Jesús Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Ernesto Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

Puebla predicted lineup (5-3-2): Julio González (GK), Jesús Rivas, Juan Fedorco, Jose Pachuca, Efraín Orona, Nicolás Díaz, Ariel Gamarra, Raúl Castillo, Alejandro Organista, Ricardo Marín, Emiliano Gómez.

Toluca vs Puebla Prediction & Betting Tips

We dive into the top Toluca vs Puebla betting angles, including our main match prediction, correct score play, corners market tip, standout player prop picks and a bet builder tailored for value.

Match Prediction

We really like Toluca at odds of -102 on the Asian Handicap where they’re giving up -1.75. A big victory is anticipated in this Liga MX game, with a comfortable winning margin on the cards.

Our football experts study the form, while injuries and suspensions can also affect the potential outcome. Before coming up with a verdict, we combine this data with the latest Liga MX stats.

Key Toluca vs Puebla league stats:

• The -1.75 line has been covered by Toluca in 6 of their last 10 games.
• The -1.75 line has been covered by Toluca in 3 of their last 5 games at home.
• The +1.75 line hasn’t been covered by Puebla in 3 of their last 5 games.
• The -1.75 line has been covered by Toluca in 2 consecutive games against Puebla.

Toluca -1.75 Probability

According to the latest odds, there’s a 50.5% likelihood of our pick winning. Our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be closer to 60%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

A bigger price can be landed by going down the Bet Builder route where Toluca to cover the line is one of several options. Add various legs until you’re satisfied with the odds.

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Our Match Prediction

Toluca Asian Hcp -1.75 @ -102 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 3 - 0 Puebla

Our prediction for the correct score is Toluca to land a 3-0 victory and this is available at +700. It’s a fun wager to place which lands a bigger potential return.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Alexis Vega to Score +130

Alexis Vega (Toluca) has racked up eight goals in his past nine Liga MX games on home soil. He looks like an attractive wager to be on the scoresheet and you’re able to back this Anytime Goalscorer selection at odds of +130.

Latest Alexis Vega Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+130

First

+420

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-208

Under 0.5

+133

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Corners Prediction

Toluca Under 6.5 Corners -138

We’ve seen an average of 4.30 Toluca corners in the past 10 home games, with Puebla conceding under 6.5 corners in the previous seven away matches. We’re backing Toluca to fall short when it comes to Team Corners and this pick is on offer at -138.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

8.00 4.50 3.50

Home

7.20 4.30 2.90

Away

9.80 4.70 5.10

Puebla

Total

8.20 4.40 3.80

Home

9.60 4.00 5.60

Away

8.60 4.40 4.20

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-102

Under 10.5

-147

Toluca Corners

Over 6.5

-100

Under 6.5

-138

Puebla Corners

Over 3.5

+110

Under 3.5

-150

Most Corners

1

-417

X

+850

2

+390

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Toluca vs Puebla Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Toluca Big Favourites With the Bookies

Deportivo Toluca have been chalked up as the convincing -385 favourites for this Liga MX encounter. This means that the bookmakers afford them a 79% probability of winning. Club Puebla are the outsiders at +850 which suggests a low likelihood of winning.

Should you want to back Toluca to lead at the break, then there is -149 available on the Half-Time Result market. Opponents Puebla have been chalked up at +550 and the draw is +180.

The expectation is that Over 2.5 Goals will be scored according to the latest odds. BTTS wagering is popular and you can back Yes at -135 on the Both Teams to Score market.

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Full-Time Result

1

-385

X

+460

2

+850

Half-Time Result

1

-149

X

+180

2

+550

Double Chance

1X

-3333

12

-1000

X2

+215

Draw No Bet

1

-1111

2

+540

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1.75

-102

2 Hcp +1.75

-120

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+180

Over 2.5

-250

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-135

No

-105

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is the First Goalscorer Favourite

There’s the chance to back João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" at +270 to be the First Goalscorer. He’s the favourite and available at similar odds to find the net last instead.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

-147

Anytime

+270

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+130

Anytime

+420

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+250

Anytime

+750

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+250

Anytime

+800

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+300

Anytime

+900

Lucas Cavallini (Puebla)

First

+350

Anytime

+1050

Ricardo Marin (Puebla)

First

+350

Anytime

+1050

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+370

Anytime

+1050

Esteban Lozano (Puebla)

First

+380

Anytime

+1100

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+380

Anytime

+1150

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+380

Anytime

+1200

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1200

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1300

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+1400

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+1400

Fernando Monárrez (Puebla)

First

+525

Anytime

+1600

Iker Moreno (Puebla)

First

+600

Anytime

+1600

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1700

Edgar Andres Guerra (Puebla)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1900

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+2000

Owen Gonzalez (Puebla)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Raúl Castillo (Puebla)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-208

Under 0.5

+133

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

-132

Under 1.5

-132

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-139

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-172

Ricardo Marin (Puebla)

Over 0.5

+117

Under 0.5

-185

Lucas Cavallini (Puebla)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-189

Esteban Lozano (Puebla)

Over 0.5

+130

Under 0.5

-208

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-233

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-263

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-286

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-333

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-345

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-357

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+210

Under 0.5

-385

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-385

Fernando Monárrez (Puebla)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-385

Iker Moreno (Puebla)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-400

Edgar Andres Guerra (Puebla)

Over 0.5

+230

Under 0.5

-435

Owen Gonzalez (Puebla)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-476

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-526

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-588

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-556

Toluca Difficult to Beat on Home Soil

Toluca have recorded seven victories, two draws and one defeat in the previous 10 home matches, netting an average of 2.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40.

Puebla have gone without an away win in the last nine games. La Franja have collected eight defeats, one win and one draw in the previous 10 away matches, scoring an average of 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00.

The previous Estadio Nemesio Diez encounter involved a 5-0 Toluca win against Puebla. We’ve seen three Toluca wins, one Puebla victory and three draws in the past 7 H2H meetings at Estadio Nemesio Diez.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		7-2-1	4.00	2.60	1.40	8	2	8	2
Puebla Away Stats		1-1-8	2.60	0.60	2.00	4	6	3	7

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Toluca vs Puebla Lineups & Team News

Before making your bets, take a look at the Toluca vs Puebla team news. We’ll deliver the predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups as well as the most recent injury news.

Toluca Team Page Puebla Team Page