Toluca vs Pumas Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 16 Aug 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Pumas

Toluca host Pumas in this Liga MX match at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 23:00 on Saturday 16 August. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Pumas To Have No Joy

There are several reasons to back Toluca on the Full-Time Result betting market, especially at value odds of -133. We think that the favourites will prove too strong for Pumas.

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1-1 Draw in Last H2H

Deportivo Toluca won their last game 2-0. This was an away victory at Estadio Benito Juarez against Juárez. Los Diablos Rojos managed three shots on target and recorded 40% possession, while Paulinho and Juan Dominguez each scored one goal.

Pumas UNAM hosted Club Necaxa in their previous game, ending in a 1-1 draw at Olimpico Universitario. Efrain Juarez's team racked up five shots on goal and enjoyed 66% possession, while Ruben Duarte was on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have gone unbeaten in their past four games against Pumas, with the last encounter ending 1-1 at Olimpico Universitario. The previous 10 H2H games have included four draws coupled with three victories apiece.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Toluca	13	10	1	2	39	16	23	39:16	31
10	Pumas	13	3	5	5	16	20	-4	16:20	14

View Full Table

Deportivo Toluca have 6 wins, 2 losses and 2 draws, averaging 2.2 goals from 10.1 attempts and 5.2 shots on goal. Los Diablos Rojos have averaged 47.3% possession and 4.3 corners per game, conceding 1.2 goals and 3.8 corners from 6.8 attempts and 2.9 shots on goal.

Top scorers are Alexis Vega and Paulinho on 4 goals, while Helinho has racked up 3. The leading assistor is Alexis Vega with 6.

Pumas UNAM have 3 victories, 5 defeats and 2 draws, with an average of 1.3 goals from 7.2 attempts and 2.8 shots on goal. Efrain Juarez's team average 49.5% possession, 3.4 corners awarded and 3.6 corners against them, while conceding 1.6 goals from 8.8 attempts and 3.3 shots on goal.

Guillermo Martinez has landed 4 goals, Jorge Ruvalcaba 2, with Ruben Duarte and two others scoring 1. Look no further than Adalberto Carrasquilla for the top assist maker (3) in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Toluca confirmed lineup (4-4-2): Luis Garcia (GK), Diego Barbosa, Jesus Gallardo, Federico Pereira, Everardo Del Villar, Jesus Angulo, Franco Romero, Nicolas Castro, Marcel Ruiz, Paulinho, Helinho.

Pumas confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Keylor Navas (GK), Pablo Bennevendo, Nathan Silva, Angel Azuaje, Ruben Duarte, Santiago Trigos, Jose Caicedo, Pedro Vite, Adalberto Carrasquilla, Jorge Ruvalcaba, Guillermo Martinez.

Toluca vs Pumas Prediction & Betting Tips

We’ve broken down Toluca vs Pumas from every angle, offering our expert match prediction, expected final score, best corners pick, player prop recommendations and a well-constructed bet builder.

Match Prediction

We can’t pass up the opportunity to back Toluca considering they are -133 to record a Liga MX victory. We’ll take this bet with confidence based on the stats that are available to us.

Our football experts are keen to follow the latest form and understand any patterns that emerge. The same applies to injuries that could affect key players. Combined with the best Liga MX stats, there is plenty of information to make a verdict.

Key Toluca vs Pumas league stats:

• Toluca have won 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• Toluca have won 4 of their last 5 games.
• Pumas have lost 6 of their last 10 games on the road.
• Pumas have lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Toluca to Win Probability

The best football bookies are estimating that there is a 57.1% likelihood of this pick landing a return. However, our experts think that the probability sits between 60-65% taking all factors into consideration. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.

If you think the odds for Toluca to triumph are a touch too skinny, then why not boost your price by combining this pick with both teams to find the net on the Result & BTTS market.

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Our Match Prediction

Toluca To Win @ -133 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 2 - 0 Pumas

There are betting odds of +650 that Toluca land a 2-0 victory. The correct score option is popular due to the potential return that can be achieved.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Jorge Ruvalcaba Over 0.5 Shots On Target -141

Jorge Ruvalcaba (Pumas) is available at -141 to have at least one shot on goal. In conclusion, we think that the odds offer plenty of appeal when it comes to betting on Shots on Target.

Latest Jorge Ruvalcaba Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+550

First

+1300

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

+102

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Alexis Vega to Score +210

Alexis Vega (Toluca) has netted nine goals in his past ten Liga MX games on home soil. When it comes to him scoring, we think that the +210 available is attractive when betting on the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Latest Alexis Vega Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+220

First

+500

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-122

Under 0.5

-116

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Corners Prediction

Under 8.5 Corners +110

Each of the previous three Pumas matches have featured under 8.5 corners. The corners tally could be lower than the line implies and that leads us to a wager at a price of +110.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

8.10 4.30 3.80

Home

7.90 4.70 3.20

Away

10.00 4.80 5.20

Pumas

Total

7.00 3.40 3.60

Home

9.10 5.00 4.10

Away

9.00 3.90 5.10

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-115

Under 9.5

-130

Toluca Corners

Over 5.5

-120

Under 5.5

-130

Pumas Corners

Over 3.5

-137

Under 3.5

-114

Most Corners

1

-208

X

+700

2

+225

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Toluca vs Pumas Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Latest Match Odds Suggest Toluca Win

The latest Deportivo Toluca odds are -143 which leads to them being favourites in this Liga MX clash. It’s also implied by the bookmakers that they have a 59% prospect of securing a victory. If you’re interested in wagering Pumas UNAM, you can get +340 for the underdog.

Betting Toluca -0.75 on the Asian Handicap at -112 means splitting stake between -0.5 and -1.0. Therefore, a one-goal win over Pumas means a win and a push, with a 2+ goal victory meaning a full payout.

You can find the shortest odds for Over 2.5 Goals, which means three goals or more being scored. The Yes option in the Both Teams to Score market is regarded as the most likely outcome and is trading at -133.

If you head to our recommended betting sites, then you can’t go wrong with the hundreds of markets available for each Liga MX match. Go through the options and choose your football bet.

Full-Time Result

1

-143

X

+275

2

+340

Half-Time Result

1

+125

X

+128

2

+340

Double Chance

1X

-588

12

-476

X2

-105

Draw No Bet

1

-333

2

+205

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.75

-112

2 Hcp +0.75

-127

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-106

Over 2.5

-127

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-133

No

-106

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" Favourite to Score the First Goal

Favourite João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is priced at +340 to be the first player on the scoresheet, while there’s also the chance to back him to score any time at odds of +115.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

+115

Anytime

+340

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+220

Anytime

+500

Guillermo Martinez (Pumas)

First

+240

Anytime

+600

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+370

Anytime

+950

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+410

Anytime

+950

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1200

Jorge Ruvalcaba (Pumas)

First

+550

Anytime

+1300

Pedro Vite (Pumas)

First

+550

Anytime

+1400

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+575

Anytime

+1400

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1400

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+1500

Piero Quispe (Pumas)

First

+700

Anytime

+1600

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+1700

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+1800

Rodrigo Lopez (Pumas)

First

+750

Anytime

+1700

Angel Rico (Pumas)

First

+750

Anytime

+1700

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+800

Anytime

+1900

Ulises Rivas (Pumas)

First

+850

Anytime

+1900

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+900

Anytime

+2000

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Adalberto Carrasquilla (Pumas)

First

+1050

Anytime

+2200

Jorge Ruvalcaba (Pumas)

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

+102

Guillermo Martinez (Pumas)

Over 0.5

-139

Under 0.5

-123

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-128

Under 0.5

-135

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-122

Under 0.5

-116

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

+132

Under 1.5

-238

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-204

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-270

Pedro Vite (Pumas)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-303

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+205

Under 0.5

-333

Rodrigo Lopez (Pumas)

Over 0.5

+255

Under 0.5

-417

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+255

Under 0.5

-417

Piero Quispe (Pumas)

Over 0.5

+265

Under 0.5

-435

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+265

Under 0.5

-435

Angel Rico (Pumas)

Over 0.5

+265

Under 0.5

-435

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+275

Under 0.5

-455

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-476

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-526

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+320

Under 0.5

-556

Ulises Rivas (Pumas)

Over 0.5

+330

Under 0.5

-588

Adalberto Carrasquilla (Pumas)

Over 0.5

+340

Under 0.5

-625

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+360

Under 0.5

-714

Toluca Proving Hard to Beat at Home

Toluca have eight victories, one draw and one defeat in the last 10 home matches, netting an average of 3.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30.

Pumas have finished with six defeats, three wins and one draw in the past 10 away matches, netting an average of 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90.

When Toluca last played Pumas at Estadio Nemesio Diez, they drew 1-1. The past 7 H2H meetings at Estadio Nemesio Diez have resulted in three Toluca wins, two draws and two Pumas victories.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		8-1-1	4.30	3.00	1.30	9	1	7	3
Pumas Away Stats		3-1-6	3.30	1.40	1.90	7	3	7	3

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Toluca vs Pumas Lineups & Team News

Stay ahead of the game by checking the Toluca vs Pumas team news before betting. We’ll provide full coverage of predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups alongside the newest injury information.

Toluca Team Page Pumas Team Page