Toluca vs Pumas Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 16 Aug 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Pumas

Toluca host Pumas in this Liga MX match at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 23:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Pumas To Have No Joy

There are several reasons to back Toluca on the Full-Time Result betting market, especially at value odds of -133. We think that the favourites will prove too strong for Pumas.

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1-1 Draw in Last H2H

Deportivo Toluca won their last game 2-0. This was an away victory at Estadio Benito Juarez against Juárez. Los Diablos Rojos managed three shots on target and recorded 40% possession, while Paulinho and Juan Dominguez each scored one goal.

Pumas UNAM hosted Club Necaxa in their previous game, ending in a 1-1 draw at Olimpico Universitario. Efrain Juarez's team racked up five shots on goal and enjoyed 66% possession, while Ruben Duarte was on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have gone unbeaten in their past four games against Pumas, with the last encounter ending 1-1 at Olimpico Universitario. The previous 10 H2H games have included four draws coupled with three victories apiece.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
3	Toluca	4	3	0	1	12	7	5	12:7	9
11	Pumas	4	1	1	2	5	7	-2	5:7	4

View Full Table

Deportivo Toluca have 6 wins, 2 losses and 2 draws, averaging 2.2 goals from 10.1 attempts and 5.2 shots on goal. Los Diablos Rojos have averaged 47.3% possession and 4.3 corners per game, conceding 1.2 goals and 3.8 corners from 6.8 attempts and 2.9 shots on goal.

Top scorers are Alexis Vega and Paulinho on 4 goals, while Helinho has racked up 3. The leading assistor is Alexis Vega with 6.

Pumas UNAM have 3 victories, 5 defeats and 2 draws, with an average of 1.3 goals from 7.2 attempts and 2.8 shots on goal. Efrain Juarez's team average 49.5% possession, 3.4 corners awarded and 3.6 corners against them, while conceding 1.6 goals from 8.8 attempts and 3.3 shots on goal.

Guillermo Martinez has landed 4 goals, Jorge Ruvalcaba 2, with Ruben Duarte and two others scoring 1. Look no further than Adalberto Carrasquilla for the top assist maker (3) in the last 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Diego Barbosa, Antonio Briseño, Federico Pereira, Jesús Gallardo, Franco Romero, Marcel Ruíz, Juan Pablo Domínguez, Nicolas Castro, Ernesto Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

Pumas predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Keylor Navas (GK), Pablo Bennevendo, Nathan Silva, Ángel Azuaje, Ruben Duarte, Santiago Trigos, José Caicedo, Pedro Vite, Adalberto Carrasquilla, Jorge Ruvalcaba, Guillermo Martinez Ayala.

Toluca vs Pumas Prediction & Betting Tips

Take in the full Toluca vs Pumas betting outlook — from our expert match prediction and correct score pick to sharp corners advice and a bet builder tailored for value.

Match Prediction

We can’t pass up the opportunity to back Toluca considering they are -133 to record a Liga MX victory. We’ll take this bet with confidence based on the stats that are available to us.

Our football experts are keen to follow the latest form and understand any patterns that emerge. The same applies to injuries that could affect key players. Combined with the best Liga MX stats, there is plenty of information to make a verdict.

Key Toluca vs Pumas league stats:

• Toluca have won 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• Toluca have won 4 of their last 5 games.
• Pumas have lost 6 of their last 10 games on the road.
• Pumas have lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Toluca to Win Probability

The best football bookies are estimating that there is a 57.1% likelihood of this pick landing a return. However, our experts think that the probability sits between 60-65% taking all factors into consideration. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.

If you think the odds for Toluca to triumph are a touch too skinny, then why not boost your price by combining this pick with both teams to find the net on the Result & BTTS market.

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Our Match Prediction

Toluca To Win @ -133 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 2 - 0 Pumas

There are betting odds of +700 that Toluca land a 2-0 victory. The correct score option is popular due to the potential return that can be achieved.

Corners Prediction

Under 8.5 Corners +110

Each of the previous three Pumas matches have featured under 8.5 corners. The corners tally could be lower than the line implies and that leads us to a wager at a price of +110.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

8.10 4.30 3.80

Home

7.90 4.70 3.20

Away

10.00 4.80 5.20

Pumas

Total

7.00 3.40 3.60

Home

9.10 5.00 4.10

Away

9.00 3.90 5.10

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 8.5

-150

Under 8.5

+110

Toluca Corners

Over 4.5

-163

Under 4.5

+120

Pumas Corners

Over 3.5

-120

Under 3.5

-120

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Toluca vs Pumas Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Latest Match Odds Suggest Toluca Win

The latest Deportivo Toluca odds are -143 which leads to them being favourites in this Liga MX clash. It’s also implied by the bookmakers that they have a 59% prospect of securing a victory. If you’re interested in wagering Pumas UNAM, you can get +400 for the underdog.

Betting Toluca -0.75 on the Asian Handicap at -111 means splitting stake between -0.5 and -1.0. Therefore, a one-goal win over Pumas means a win and a push, with a 2+ goal victory meaning a full payout.

If you’re betting on Total Goals, the market is finding it hard to split Unders and Overs. For Both Teams to Score betting opportunities, the market suggests that BTTS Yes and No are both equally as likely to happen.

If you head to our recommended betting sites, then you can’t go wrong with the hundreds of markets available for each Liga MX match. Go through the options and choose your football bet.

Full-Time Result

1

-143

X

+270

2

+400

Half-Time Result

1

+125

X

+125

2

+400

Double Chance

1X

-599

12

-350

X2

+110

Draw No Bet

1

-350

2

+250

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.75

-111

2 Hcp +0.75

-111

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-105

Over 2.5

-118

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-125

No

-105

Toluca Proving Hard to Beat at Home

Toluca have eight victories, one draw and one defeat in the last 10 home matches, netting an average of 3.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30.

Pumas have finished with six defeats, three wins and one draw in the past 10 away matches, netting an average of 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90.

When Toluca last played Pumas at Estadio Nemesio Diez, they drew 1-1. The past 7 H2H meetings at Estadio Nemesio Diez have resulted in three Toluca wins, two draws and two Pumas victories.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		8-1-1	4.30	3.00	1.30	9	1	7	3
Pumas Away Stats		3-1-6	3.30	1.40	1.90	7	3	7	3

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Toluca vs Pumas Lineups & Team News

Stay ahead of the game by checking the Toluca vs Pumas team news before betting. We’ll provide full coverage of predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups alongside the newest injury information.

Toluca Team Page Pumas Team Page