Toluca vs Tijuana Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 13 Feb 2026

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Tijuana

Toluca clash with Tijuana at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 22:00 on Friday 13 February.

Toluca -1.25 at -125 look a good bet on the Asian Handicap. The home team will land a nice return if they achieve a two goal winning margin or bigger. A one goal win would mean we get half the stake returned.

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In the last Deportivo Toluca game, they played out a 1-1 draw at home to Cruz Azul at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Antonio Mohamed's side had five shots on target and boasted 54% possession, while Paulinho registered the goal.

Club Tijuana drew 0-0 against Club Puebla in their previous game. This was on home soil at Estadio Caliente. Tijuana had 44% possession and managed two shots on goal.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have not lost to Tijuana in the past four games, with the last clash seeing a 0-0 draw played out at Estadio Caliente. The past 10 H2H matches have resulted in five Toluca wins, two draws and three Tijuana victories.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
6	Toluca	5	2	3	0	5	2	3	5:2	9
10	Tijuana	5	1	4	0	5	4	1	5:4	7

View Full Table

Deportivo Toluca have 4 wins, 2 losses and 4 draws, averaging 1.9 goals from 4.9 shots on goal and 10.6 attempts. Los Diablos Rojos have averaged 50.9% possession and 5.9 corners per match, with the opposition scoring 1.5 goals from 2.9 shots on goal, 5.9 attempts and 2.7 corners.

Helinho is the top scorer with 4 goals, Paulinho has 3, with Marcel Ruiz and Federico Pereira on 1. Helinho is the top assists maker with 2.

Xolos have won 4, lost 2 and drawn 4, with an average of 1.4 goals from 7.6 attempts and 3.3 shots on goal. There’s been an average of 40.9% possession, 3.4 corners awarded and 4.2 corners against them, while they’ve conceded 1.4 goals from 8.8 attempts and 4.3 shots on goal.

Kevin Castaneda has top scored with 4, while Unai Bilbao, Mourad Daoudi and Gilberto Mora are next on 2. Kevin Castaneda and Jesus Vega have both managed 3 assists in the previous 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Jesús Gallardo, Everardo del Villar, Federico Pereira, Bruno Méndez, Nicolas Castro, Franco Romero, Santiago Simón, Marcel Ruíz, Jesús Angulo, Paulinho.

Tijuana predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): José Antonio Rodriguez (GK), Rafael Fernandez, Jackson Porozo, Unai Bilbao, Pablo Ortiz, Ignacio Rivero, Ivan Tona, Ramiro Árciga, Kevin Castañeda, Adonis Preciado, Mourad El Ghezouani.

Toluca vs Tijuana Prediction & Betting Tips

Get the full betting picture for Toluca vs Tijuana, including our expert match prediction, likely scoreline, key corners pick, must-watch player props and a tailored bet builder ready to use.

Match Prediction

We’re expecting Toluca to be too strong for the opposition in this Liga MX clash. Our Asian Handicap bet on the home team at -1.25 looks like the best betting angle to take, with odds of -125 available.

Our football betting picks come from having access to off-the-press team news along with going through the Liga MX form guide. It’s also important to identify the key stats.

Key Toluca vs Tijuana league stats:

• The +1.25 line hasn’t been covered by Tijuana in 3 of their last 5 games on the road.

The odds at the best football bookies suggest our pick has a 55.6% chance of winning. After careful examination, our tipsters calculate this probability to be somewhere between 60-65%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this bet.

We advise that you move the line if you are looking for a larger price about the same selection. Make your prediction and land the bigger odds from your wager as a result.

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Our Match Prediction

Toluca Asian Hcp -1.25 @ -125 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (04:07, 12 February 2026). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 2 - 0 Tijuana

A 2-0 win in favor of Toluca can be backed at odds of +540. We like placing a bet on correct score due to the fun element and the big potential return.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nicolas Castro to Score +280

Nicolas Castro (Toluca) has managed three goals in his past ten Liga MX home games. The Anytime Goalscorer odds look really appealing based on the stats and we’ll take a chance on him at odds of +280.

Latest Nicolas Castro Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+280

First

+750

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Under 10.5 Corners -152

In terms of average corners for the past five Toluca matches, the number is 7.40. The last ten Tijuana games have averaged 7.60 corners. There’s everything to like about the Total Corners line which looks high and we’d expect the teams to go under at -152.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

8.60 5.90 2.70

Home

8.70 5.70 3.00

Away

9.70 5.60 4.10

Tijuana

Total

7.60 3.40 4.20

Home

6.00 2.70 3.30

Away

9.40 3.70 5.70

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

+102

Under 10.5

-152

Toluca Corners

Over 7.5

-100

Under 7.5

-159

Tijuana Corners

Over 2.5

-132

Under 2.5

-119

Most Corners

1

-714

X

+950

2

+550

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Toluca vs Tijuana Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With an estimated 74% chance of winning, the bookies are taking few chances with their -278 betting odds about Deportivo Toluca triumphing in this Liga MX clash. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +650 about Club Tijuana.

It sometimes pays to go down the Half-Time Result route and the draw is available at +160. Alternatively, Toluca can be backed at -128 and Tijuana are on offer at +510.

For those expecting a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals is the shortest price. Punters anticipating that both teams will find the net are able to land -132 for the BTTS Yes option.

If you’re wanting hundreds of football markets, then the good news is that the top betting sites can provide this. For any Liga MX match, take your pick and hopefully find a winning angle.

Full-Time Result

1

-278

X

+370

2

+650

Half-Time Result

1

-128

X

+160

2

+510

Double Chance

1X

-2000

12

-769

X2

+175

Draw No Bet

1

-1111

2

+430

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1.25

-125

2 Hcp +1.25

-104

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+132

Over 2.5

-179

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-132

No

-108

Those interested in favourite João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" to find the net first are able to get +240. If the Anytime Goalscorer angle makes more appeal, then this is -137.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

-137

Anytime

+240

Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro "Helinho" (Toluca)

First

+190

Anytime

+575

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+280

Anytime

+750

Pavel Perez (Toluca)

First

+310

Anytime

+900

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+350

Anytime

+950

Josef Martínez (Tijuana)

First

+350

Anytime

+950

Mourad El Ghezouani (Tijuana)

First

+410

Anytime

+1100

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+420

Anytime

+1150

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+430

Anytime

+1200

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+430

Anytime

+1200

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+440

Anytime

+1200

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+440

Anytime

+1200

Shamar Nicholson (Tijuana)

First

+440

Anytime

+1150

Vitor Samuel Arantes "Vitinho" (Tijuana)

First

+460

Anytime

+1200

Kevin Castañeda (Tijuana)

First

+480

Anytime

+1200

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+600

Anytime

+1700

Domingo Blanco (Tijuana)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Jose Ignacio Rivero (Tijuana)

First

+650

Anytime

+1600

Ivan Tona (Tijuana)

First

+700

Anytime

+1800

Antonio Briseño (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Bruno Méndez (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2000

Kevin Escamilla (Tijuana)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Angel Zapata (Tijuana)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Toluca have gone unbeaten at Estadio Nemesio Diez in the last ten games. Antonio Mohamed's side have racked up seven wins and three draws in the last 10 home matches, scoring an average of 2.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00.

Tijuana have recorded five losses, three draws and two wins in the previous 10 away games, scoring an average of 1.30 goals per match and conceding 2.20.

The most recent Estadio Nemesio Diez meeting saw Toluca claim a 4-0 win over Tijuana. The previous 6 H2H meetings at Estadio Nemesio Diez have involved five Toluca triumphs and just one win for Tijuana.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		7-3-0	3.60	2.60	1.00	7	3	7	3
Tijuana Away Stats		2-3-5	3.50	1.30	2.20	6	4	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Toluca vs Tijuana Lineups & Team News

Before making your bets, take a look at the Toluca vs Xolos team news. We’ll share the predicted and confirmed lineups for the Liga MX together with updated injury news.

Toluca Team Page Tijuana Team Page

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