Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 09 Oct 2025

NHL Betting Preview: Senators vs Lightning

The Ottawa Senators meet the Tampa Bay Lightning in this NHL matchup at Benchmark International Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:00 on Thursday, October 9. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, player stats, team news and the starting lineups.

A Low-Scoring Encounter Could Be On the Cards

Our prediction is for the Senators and the Lightning to score Under 6.5 combined. Take the -133 that the teams fail to find the net enough times to win this wager.

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Sens Are 7 From 10 on the H2H

Ottawa Senators lost their previous game, being beaten at home to Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2 at Canadian Tire Centre. Brady Tkachuk and David Perron each scored one goal.

Tampa Bay Lightning lost when they last took to the ice. At Benchmark International Arena, they were turned over 6-3 at home to Florida Panthers. Jake Guentzel, Nick Paul and Gage Goncalves scored one goal apiece.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The scoreline was 2-1 in favor of the Sens when they last played the Lightning, with the encounter taking place at Canadian Tire Centre. The previous 10 games featuring these teams have resulted in seven Sens victories.

Starting Goalies

Linus Ullmark (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	25-14-3	2.7	.909	4
23/24	22-10-5	2.57	.915	2

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	38-20-5	2.2	.921	6
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

5 wins, 2 losses and 3 overtime losses, averaging 3.5 goals from 27.2 shots on goal, with a 18.0% powerplay efficiency. The Sens have given up 3.3 goals from 25.4 shots, averaging 4.4 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 81.8%.

Tim Stutzle is the top points scorer with 12 points, 5 goals and 7 assists, with Thomas Chabot racking up 9 points, 3 goals and 6 assists, over the past 10 games. Goalie Linus Ullmark have a 3.01 goal against average with a .878 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Lightning have 3 wins, 5 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 3.0 goals from 25.0 shots on goal, with a 14.0% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 3.6 goals from 25.6 shots, averaging 3.6 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 83.3%.

The top points scorer is Nikita Kucherov with 10 points, 3 goals and 7 assists, while Jake Guentzel is next best after registering 9 points, 6 goals and 3 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 3.13 GAA with a .879 SV%.

Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

Dive into our full Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning betting preview, featuring an expert match prediction, a projected scoreline, top player prop bets and a bet builder designed for value.

Game Prediction

We don’t think that the goal line will be passed in this NHL clash. It leads us to make an Unders pick, with odds of -133 currently on offer that there are less than seven goals.

Our expert hockey predictions always start with checking the latest team news and understanding how it might impact the matchup. From there, we dive into the most valuable NHL stats to uncover the insights that matter most.

Key Senators vs Lightning stats:

• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Senators games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 10 Senators games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Senators games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Lightning games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 11 of the last 20 Lightning games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 games between these teams.

Under 6.5 Probability

If you go by the top NHL betting sites, our pick has a 57.1% chance of delivering a return. After careful examination, our analysts have this probability somewhere between 60-65%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this hockey bet.

If you’re wanting bigger odds for your Under bet, then there’s a way of changing the line and aiming for a lower goals total in the hope of a better return.

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Best Bet

Under 6.5 Goals @ -133 Watch Live Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Brady Tkachuk To Score +180

Brady Tkachuk (Senators) has been on the scoresheet in 4 of his past 5 games. We’ll use this stat and take odds of +180 that he is able to score at least one goal when it comes to wagering on Anytime Goalscorer.

Latest Brady Tkachuk Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+180

First

+1100

Assists

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-222

Shots on Goal

Over 3.5

-105

Under 3.5

-130

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Correct Score Prediction

Senators 3 - 2 Lightning

Our prediction for the correct score is the Senators to land a 3-2 victory and this is available at +950. It’s a fun wager to place which lands a bigger potential return.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Senators

Lightning

1-0

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+5000

2-0

Senators

+5000

Lightning

+4500

2-1

Senators

+1600

Lightning

+1400

3-0

Senators

+4000

Lightning

+2500

3-1

Senators

+2200

Lightning

+1700

3-2

Senators

+950

Lightning

+800

4-0

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+3000

4-1

Senators

+2000

Lightning

+1200

4-2

Senators

+1900

Lightning

+1400

4-3

Senators

+1150

Lightning

+1000

5-0

Senators

+10000

Lightning

+5000

5-1

Senators

+3500

Lightning

+1900

5-2

Senators

+2200

Lightning

+1300

5-3

Senators

+2800

Lightning

+2000

5-4

Senators

+2200

Lightning

+2000

6-0

Senators

+2200

Lightning

+7500

6-1

Senators

+9000

Lightning

+4000

6-2

Senators

+4500

Lightning

+2400

6-3

Senators

+4000

Lightning

+2500

6-4

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+4500

6-5

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+5000

7-0

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+12000

7-1

Senators

+14000

Lightning

+7000

7-2

Senators

+11000

Lightning

+6000

7-3

Senators

+7500

Lightning

+4500

7-4

Senators

+8000

Lightning

+5500

7-5

Senators

+12000

Lightning

+10000

7-6

Senators

+12500

Lightning

+12000

8-1

Senators

+12500

Lightning

+12000

8-2

Senators

+12500

Lightning

+10000

8-3

Senators

+12500

Lightning

+11000

8-4

Senators

+14000

Lightning

+10000

8-5

Senators

+14000

Lightning

+13000

View More

Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Books Make Lightning Likelier Winners

With the sportsbooks giving them a 62% probability of winning this game, Tampa Bay Lightning might be a popular parlay pick. That is reflected in their -164 Moneyline betting odds. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +136 about Ottawa Senators.

1.5 is where the puck line lies, with total goals being 6.5 right now. A Totals bet relates to the number of goals that will be scored overall. The Over 6.5 selection is available to back at +110.

If you're looking to place a National Hockey League wager, head to the top betting apps and explore the wide range of team props and game lines. Take your time to find the lines and odds that offer the best value.

Moneyline

Senators

+136

Lightning

-164

3-Way Moneyline

Senators

+220

Tie

+330

Lightning

-103

Puck Line

Senators +1.5

-179

Lightning -1.5

+146

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-133

Over 6.5

+110

Nikita Kucherov Favorite to Find the Net First

Favorite Nikita Kucherov is priced at +1000 to be the first player to light the lamp. There’s also the opportunity to back him to score at anytime at odds of +150.

Player Goals

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

First

+150

Anytime

+1000

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

First

+150

Anytime

+1000

Brayden Point (Lightning)

First

+155

Anytime

+1000

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

First

+180

Anytime

+1100

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

First

+230

Anytime

+1600

Tim Stützle (Senators)

First

+250

Anytime

+1700

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

First

+300

Anytime

+1900

Shane Pinto (Senators)

First

+310

Anytime

+2000

Dylan Cozens (Senators)

First

+320

Anytime

+1900

Fabian Zetterlund (Senators)

First

+333

Anytime

+2000

Oliver Bjorkstrand (Lightning)

First

+375

Anytime

+2200

David Perron (Senators)

First

+380

Anytime

+2200

Gage Goncalves (Lightning)

First

+400

Anytime

+2200

Claude Giroux (Senators)

First

+425

Anytime

+2500

Ridly Greig (Senators)

First

+450

Anytime

+2800

Mitchell Chaffee (Lightning)

First

+500

Anytime

+3000

Victor Hedman (Lightning)

First

+525

Anytime

+3000

Yanni Gourde (Lightning)

First

+525

Anytime

+3000

Michael Amadio (Senators)

First

+550

Anytime

+3000

Jake Sanderson (Senators)

First

+650

Anytime

+3500

Thomas Chabot (Senators)

First

+650

Anytime

+3500

Conor Geekie (Lightning)

First

+750

Anytime

+4000

Pontus Holmberg (Lightning)

First

+900

Anytime

+4500

Darren Raddysh (Lightning)

First

+900

Anytime

+5500

Lars Eller (Senators)

First

+950

Anytime

+4500

Nick Cousins (Senators)

First

+1100

Anytime

+5000

Artem Zub (Senators)

First

+1400

Anytime

+6600

Erik Cernak (Lightning)

First

+1700

Anytime

+8000

Nick Jensen (Senators)

First

+1900

Anytime

+8000

Maxwell Crozier (Lightning)

First

+1900

Anytime

+8000

Player Assists

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

Over 0.5

-189

Under 0.5

+140

Victor Hedman (Lightning)

Over 0.5

-100

Under 0.5

-135

Jake Sanderson (Senators)

Over 0.5

+105

Under 0.5

-145

Tim Stützle (Senators)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-161

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

Over 0.5

+125

Under 0.5

-164

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-185

Brayden Point (Lightning)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-189

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-222

Thomas Chabot (Senators)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-250

Claude Giroux (Senators)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-278

Dylan Cozens (Senators)

Over 0.5

+210

Under 0.5

-303

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-303

Player Shots

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

Over 3.5

-105

Under 3.5

-130

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-161

Under 2.5

+120

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-110

Under 2.5

-120

Brayden Point (Lightning)

Over 2.5

+125

Under 2.5

-164

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

+125

Under 2.5

-164

Victor Hedman (Lightning)

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-154

Jake Sanderson (Senators)

Over 2.5

+130

Under 2.5

-175

Tim Stützle (Senators)

Over 1.5

-161

Under 1.5

+120

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

Over 1.5

-161

Under 1.5

+115

Dylan Cozens (Senators)

Over 1.5

-185

Under 1.5

+130

Fabian Zetterlund (Senators)

Over 1.5

-154

Under 1.5

+115

Thomas Chabot (Senators)

Over 1.5

-185

Under 1.5

+130

Micro Betting

There are lots of exciting NHL micro betting lines that are created and they are available in-game. Among them are next goalscorer, next team to find the net and whether a goal will be scored within the next 10 minutes.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Ottawa Senators Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.80 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.70 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.50 goals and allowed 3.30 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 2.60 pts and allowed 3.10 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.60 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 7.30 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.00 goals and allowed 3.60 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 4.20 goals and allowed 3.10 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.9
• Shots: 27.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 4.4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 10.1
• Blocks: 14.6
• Faceoff Wins : 27.1
• Hits: 36.4
• Giveaways: 12.7
• Takeaways: 4.5

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 27.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4.4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 10.2
• Blocks: 15.9
• Faceoff Wins : 28.9
• Hits: 29.5
• Giveaways: 12.6
• Takeaways: 4.2

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 25
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 9.1
• Blocks: 13.3
• Faceoff Wins : 26.7
• Hits: 23.8
• Giveaways: 15.2
• Takeaways: 4.8

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 25.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 8
• Blocks: 13.1
• Faceoff Wins : 26.8
• Hits: 20.9
• Giveaways: 16.2
• Takeaways: 4.4

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Team News

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.