Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 09 Oct 2025

NHL Betting Preview: Senators vs Lightning

The Ottawa Senators meet the Tampa Bay Lightning in this NHL matchup at Benchmark International Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:00 on Thursday, October 9. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, player stats, team news and the starting lineups.

Our prediction is for the Senators and the Lightning to score Under 6.5 combined. Take the -133 that the teams fail to find the net enough times to win this wager.

The Ottawa Senators’ 2024/25 campaign ended in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, where they fell 4–2 in the series to the Toronto Maple Leafs. In Game 6, the Senators lost 4–2 at home at Canadian Tire Centre, with Brady Tkachuk and David Perron each scoring a goal.

Tampa Bay Lightning ended last season with a first-round playoff exit, losing the series 4–1 to the Florida Panthers. The Lightning suffered a 6–3 home defeat in Game 5 at Benchmark International Arena, with Jake Guentzel, Nick Paul and Gage Goncalves finding the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The scoreline was 2-1 in favor of the Sens when they last played the Lightning, with the encounter taking place at Canadian Tire Centre. The previous 10 games featuring these teams have resulted in seven Sens victories.

Starting Goalies

Linus Ullmark (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	27-12-8	2.8	.889	2
23/24	22-10-5	2.57	.915	2

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	37-15-4	2.3	.911	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

Dive into our full Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning betting preview, featuring an expert match prediction, a projected scoreline, top player prop bets and a bet builder designed for value.

Game Prediction

We don’t think that the goal line will be passed in this NHL clash. It leads us to make an Unders pick, with odds of -133 currently on offer that there are less than seven goals.

Our expert hockey predictions always start with checking the latest team news and understanding how it might impact the matchup. From there, we dive into the most valuable NHL stats to uncover the insights that matter most.

Key Senators vs Lightning stats:

• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Senators games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 10 Senators games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Senators games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Lightning games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 11 of the last 20 Lightning games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 games between these teams.

Under 6.5 Probability

If you go by the top NHL betting sites, our pick has a 57.1% chance of delivering a return. After careful examination, our analysts have this probability somewhere between 60-65%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this hockey bet.

If you’re wanting bigger odds for your Under bet, then there’s a way of changing the line and aiming for a lower goals total in the hope of a better return.

Make the most of your next wager by unlocking the best betting offers along with the latest sign-up bonuses and promotions.

Our Game Prediction

Under 6.5 Goals @ -133 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Oct 8, 23:43). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Brady Tkachuk To Score +180

Brady Tkachuk (Senators) has been on the scoresheet in 4 of his past 5 games. We’ll use this stat and take odds of +180 that he is able to score at least one goal when it comes to wagering on Anytime Goalscorer.

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Senators 3 - 2 Lightning

Our prediction for the correct score is the Senators to land a 3-2 victory and this is available at +1000. It’s a fun wager to place which lands a bigger potential return.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Senators

Lightning

1-0

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+5000

2-0

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+4000

2-1

Senators

+1600

Lightning

+1300

3-0

Senators

+4000

Lightning

+2400

3-1

Senators

+2200

Lightning

+1600

3-2

Senators

+1000

Lightning

+800

4-0

Senators

+6000

Lightning

+2800

4-1

Senators

+2200

Lightning

+1150

4-2

Senators

+2000

Lightning

+1300

4-3

Senators

+1200

Lightning

+1000

5-0

Senators

+11000

Lightning

+4500

5-1

Senators

+4000

Lightning

+1700

5-2

Senators

+2400

Lightning

+1300

5-3

Senators

+3000

Lightning

+2000

5-4

Senators

+2400

Lightning

+2000

6-0

Senators

+2400

Lightning

+7000

6-1

Senators

+10000

Lightning

+4000

6-2

Senators

+5000

Lightning

+2400

6-3

Senators

+4000

Lightning

+2400

6-4

Senators

+6000

Lightning

+4500

6-5

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+5000

7-0

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+11000

7-1

Senators

+14000

Lightning

+6600

7-2

Senators

+13000

Lightning

+5500

7-3

Senators

+9000

Lightning

+4500

7-4

Senators

+9000

Lightning

+6000

7-5

Senators

+13000

Lightning

+10000

7-6

Senators

+13000

Lightning

+12000

8-1

Senators

+13000

Lightning

+11000

8-2

Senators

+13000

Lightning

+10000

8-3

Senators

+13000

Lightning

+11000

8-4

Senators

+14000

Lightning

+10000

8-5

Senators

+14000

Lightning

+13000

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With the sportsbooks giving them a 63% probability of winning this game, Tampa Bay Lightning might be a popular parlay pick. That is reflected in their -172 Moneyline betting odds. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +142 about Ottawa Senators.

1.5 is where the puck line lies, with total goals being 6.5 right now. A Totals bet relates to the number of goals that will be scored overall. The Over 6.5 selection is available to back at +108.

If you're looking to place a National Hockey League wager, head to the top betting apps and explore the wide range of team props and game lines. Take your time to find the lines and odds that offer the best value.

Moneyline

Senators

+142

Lightning

-172

3-Way Moneyline

Senators

+250

Tie

+340

Lightning

-116

Puck Line

Senators +1.5

-175

Lightning -1.5

+142

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-132

Over 6.5

+108

As an alternative to the game lines, check out the player prop bets that are available. It’s especially great if you have a view when it comes to Blocked Shots, Goaltender Saves or Shutouts while there are lots of other options.

There are lots of exciting NHL micro betting lines that are created and they are available in-game. Among them are next goalscorer, next team to find the net and whether a goal will be scored within the next 10 minutes.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Ottawa Senators Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.20 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.70 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.00 goals and allowed 2.20 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.30 pts and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 7.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 7.30 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 4.40 goals and allowed 3.50 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.90 goals and allowed 3.40 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 29.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 3.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 8.1
• Blocks: 13.8
• Faceoff Wins : 28
• Hits: 25.1
• Giveaways: 14.7
• Takeaways: 5.2

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 30.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 9.4
• Blocks: 13.1
• Faceoff Wins : 26.6
• Hits: 20.8
• Giveaways: 14.1
• Takeaways: 4.8

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 27.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 5.2
• Empty Net Goals: 0.5
• Penalty Minutes: 15.1
• Blocks: 16.4
• Faceoff Wins : 27.2
• Hits: 21.6
• Giveaways: 14.7
• Takeaways: 3.7

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 30.7
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 20.5
• Blocks: 15.6
• Faceoff Wins : 28.9
• Hits: 24.3
• Giveaways: 14
• Takeaways: 3.9

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

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