Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 28 Mar 2026

NHL Betting Preview: Senators vs Lightning

The Ottawa Senators square off against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena, with face-off scheduled for 13:00 on Saturday, March 28.

The Senators and opponents Lightning might fail to surpass a total of 6.5 goals. We’re sweet on our Unders prediction and odds of -132 are available.

Ottawa Senators have won in back-to-back road outings. In their previous game, they were turned over 4-3 (SO) at home to Pittsburgh Penguins at Canadian Tire Centre. Drake Batherson registered two goals, with Nick Cousins scoring one. Goalie Linus Ullmark had 35 saves (.921).

Tampa Bay Lightning were defeated last time out. Benchmark International Arena saw them beaten at home to Seattle Kraken by a 4-3 (OT) scoreline. Anthony Cirelli, Jake Guentzel and Corey Perry each scored one goal.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Sens have claimed back-to-back victories over the Lightning. At Canadian Tire Centre they won 2-1 before winning 5-4 at Benchmark International Arena. The Sens have won seven of the previous 10 H2H meetings.

Starting Goalies

Linus Ullmark (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	23-10-8	2.8	.888	2
23/24	22-10-5	2.57	.915	2

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	34-12-4	2.3	.911	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

7 wins, 2 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.0 goals from 29.9 shots on goal, with a 17.5% powerplay efficiency. The Sens have given up 2.1 goals from 22.9 shots, averaging 3.6 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 88.9%.

Drake Batherson is the top points scorer with 8 points, 6 goals and 2 assists, with Tim Stutzle recording 8 points, 2 goals and 6 assists, over the past 10 games. Goalie Linus Ullmark have a 2.28 goal against average with a .911 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Lightning have 5 wins, 3 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 4.4 goals from 27.2 shots on goal, with a 17.4% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 3.5 goals from 27.3 shots, averaging 5.2 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 84.6%.

The top points scorer is Nikita Kucherov with 21 points, 8 goals and 13 assists, while Brandon Hagel is next best after registering 13 points, 4 goals and 9 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.50 GAA with a .899 SV%.

Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

Approach Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning fully prepared with our expert match prediction, likely correct score outcome and a hand-picked bet builder designed for value.

Game Prediction

We’ve taken the view that the teams will go under the total goals line in this NHL clash. Therefore, our pick is to back the Under selection with confidence at -132.

We use the latest team news and injury updates to help shape the best possible hockey picks. You’ll also notice we take a stats-led approach by factoring in the key NHL numbers that truly make a difference.

Key Senators vs Lightning stats:

• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 4 Senators games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Senators games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 12 of the last 20 Senators games.

Under 6.5 Probability

The best betting sites are estimating that there is a 56.8% likelihood of this pick winning. Our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 60-65%. This is why we can recommend this hockey bet.

Bettors looking for more juice from their Unders bet can wager on Match Winner & Total Goals. Here you simply combine goals with the franchise that will win.

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Our Game Prediction

Under 6.5 Goals @ -132 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 27, 17:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Senators 3 - 1 Lightning

We’re going for the Senators at +2200 to secure a 3-1 win. It’s exciting to bet on the correct score and this wager will hopefully be able to land a nice return.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Senators

Lightning

1-0

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+5000

2-0

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+4500

2-1

Senators

+1600

Lightning

+1400

3-0

Senators

+4000

Lightning

+2800

3-1

Senators

+2200

Lightning

+1700

3-2

Senators

+950

Lightning

+800

4-0

Senators

+6000

Lightning

+3300

4-1

Senators

+2200

Lightning

+1300

4-2

Senators

+1900

Lightning

+1400

4-3

Senators

+1150

Lightning

+950

5-0

Senators

+10000

Lightning

+5500

5-1

Senators

+4000

Lightning

+1900

5-2

Senators

+2200

Lightning

+1400

5-3

Senators

+2800

Lightning

+2000

5-4

Senators

+2200

Lightning

+1900

6-0

Senators

+2200

Lightning

+8000

6-1

Senators

+9000

Lightning

+4000

6-2

Senators

+4500

Lightning

+2400

6-3

Senators

+4000

Lightning

+2500

6-4

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+4000

6-5

Senators

+5000

Lightning

+4500

7-0

Senators

+5000

Lightning

+12000

7-1

Senators

+5000

Lightning

+7000

7-2

Senators

+12000

Lightning

+6000

7-3

Senators

+8000

Lightning

+4500

7-4

Senators

+8000

Lightning

+5500

7-5

Senators

+12000

Lightning

+10000

7-6

Senators

+12000

Lightning

+11000

8-1

Senators

+12000

Lightning

+12000

8-2

Senators

+12000

Lightning

+10000

8-3

Senators

+12000

Lightning

+11000

8-4

Senators

+14000

Lightning

+10000

8-5

Senators

+14000

Lightning

+12500

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

For this game, the sportsbooks’ Moneyline betting odds mean Tampa Bay Lightning are -167 favorites to win and that means a 63% chance of landing a victory. Ottawa Senators are the underdogs at +138 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

The puck line is calculated to be 1.5, while total goals comes in at 6.5. Having a bet on Totals is one of the most popular hockey wagers. If you’re going for Over 6.5, then the odds are +108.

There’s no shortage of betting options, with a wide range of game lines and team props offered for every matchup. Explore the top NHL sportsbooks to find the picks that deliver the best value.

Moneyline

Senators

+138

Lightning

-167

3-Way Moneyline

Senators

+230

Tie

+320

Lightning

-104

Puck Line

Senators +1.5

-185

Lightning -1.5

+146

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-132

Over 6.5

+108

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Ottawa Senators Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.20 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.70 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.00 goals and allowed 2.20 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.30 pts and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 7.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 7.30 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 4.40 goals and allowed 3.50 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.90 goals and allowed 3.40 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 29.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 3.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 8.1
• Blocks: 13.8
• Faceoff Wins : 28
• Hits: 25.1
• Giveaways: 14.7
• Takeaways: 5.2

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 30.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 9.4
• Blocks: 13.1
• Faceoff Wins : 26.6
• Hits: 20.8
• Giveaways: 14.1
• Takeaways: 4.8

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 27.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 5.2
• Empty Net Goals: 0.5
• Penalty Minutes: 15.1
• Blocks: 16.4
• Faceoff Wins : 27.2
• Hits: 21.6
• Giveaways: 14.7
• Takeaways: 3.7

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 30.7
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 20.5
• Blocks: 15.6
• Faceoff Wins : 28.9
• Hits: 24.3
• Giveaways: 14
• Takeaways: 3.9

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

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