Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 28 Mar 2026

NHL Betting Preview: Senators vs Lightning

The Ottawa Senators square off against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena, with face-off scheduled for 12:00 on Saturday, March 28.

The Senators and opponents Lightning might fail to surpass a total of 6.5 goals. We’re sweet on our Unders prediction and odds of -132 are available.

Ottawa Senators have won in back-to-back road outings. In their previous game, they were turned over 4-3 (SO) at home to Pittsburgh Penguins at Canadian Tire Centre. Drake Batherson registered two goals, with Nick Cousins scoring one. Goalie Linus Ullmark had 35 saves (.921).

Tampa Bay Lightning were defeated last time out. Benchmark International Arena saw them beaten at home to Seattle Kraken by a 4-3 (OT) scoreline. Anthony Cirelli, Jake Guentzel and Corey Perry each scored one goal.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Sens have claimed back-to-back victories over the Lightning. At Canadian Tire Centre they won 2-1 before winning 5-4 at Benchmark International Arena. The Sens have won seven of the previous 10 H2H meetings.

Starting Goalies

James Reimer (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	7-4-2	2.4	.886	1
23/24	11-8-2	3.11	.904	2

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	39-15-4	2.3	.911	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

7 wins, 2 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.0 goals from 29.9 shots on goal, with a 17.5% powerplay efficiency. The Sens have given up 2.1 goals from 22.9 shots, averaging 3.6 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 88.9%.

Drake Batherson is the top points scorer with 8 points, 6 goals and 2 assists, with Tim Stutzle recording 8 points, 2 goals and 6 assists, over the past 10 games. Goalie Linus Ullmark have a 2.28 goal against average with a .911 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Lightning have 5 wins, 3 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 4.4 goals from 27.2 shots on goal, with a 17.4% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 3.5 goals from 27.3 shots, averaging 5.2 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 84.6%.

The top points scorer is Nikita Kucherov with 21 points, 8 goals and 13 assists, while Brandon Hagel is next best after registering 13 points, 4 goals and 9 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.50 GAA with a .899 SV%.

Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

Take on Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning with our in-depth betting analysis, featuring an expert match prediction, scoreline advice, key player props and a value-driven bet builder.

Game Prediction

We’ve taken the view that the teams will go under the total goals line in this NHL clash. Therefore, our pick is to back the Under selection with confidence at -132.

We use the latest team news and injury updates to help shape the best possible hockey picks. You’ll also notice we take a stats-led approach by factoring in the key NHL numbers that truly make a difference.

Key Senators vs Lightning stats:

• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 4 Senators games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Senators games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 12 of the last 20 Senators games.

Under 6.5 Probability

The best betting sites are estimating that there is a 56.8% likelihood of this pick winning. Our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 60-65%. This is why we can recommend this hockey bet.

Bettors looking for more juice from their Unders bet can wager on Match Winner & Total Goals. Here you simply combine goals with the franchise that will win.

Claim exclusive offers now—our guide features top betting promo codes, the latest sign-up bonuses, and free bets.

Our Game Prediction

Under 6.5 Goals @ -132 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 27, 16:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nikita Kucherov Over 0.5 Assists -233

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning) has recorded at least one assist in 6 straight games. There’s an opportunity to bet on Player Assists and the odds look attractive, with -233 available that the line is covered.

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Senators 3 - 1 Lightning

We’re going for the Senators at +2200 to secure a 3-1 win. It’s exciting to bet on the correct score and this wager will hopefully be able to land a nice return.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Senators

Lightning

1-0

Senators

+6000

Lightning

+5500

2-0

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+4500

2-1

Senators

+1600

Lightning

+1400

3-0

Senators

+4000

Lightning

+3000

3-1

Senators

+2200

Lightning

+1800

3-2

Senators

+950

Lightning

+800

4-0

Senators

+5500

Lightning

+3500

4-1

Senators

+2000

Lightning

+1400

4-2

Senators

+1800

Lightning

+1400

4-3

Senators

+1100

Lightning

+950

5-0

Senators

+10000

Lightning

+5500

5-1

Senators

+3500

Lightning

+2000

5-2

Senators

+2200

Lightning

+1400

5-3

Senators

+2500

Lightning

+2000

5-4

Senators

+2000

Lightning

+1800

6-0

Senators

+15000

Lightning

+8000

6-1

Senators

+8000

Lightning

+4500

6-2

Senators

+4000

Lightning

+2500

6-3

Senators

+3500

Lightning

+2400

6-4

Senators

+5000

Lightning

+4000

6-5

Senators

+5000

Lightning

+4500

7-0

Senators

+5000

Lightning

+12500

7-1

Senators

+13000

Lightning

+7500

7-2

Senators

+11000

Lightning

+6000

7-3

Senators

+7000

Lightning

+4500

7-4

Senators

+7500

Lightning

+5500

7-5

Senators

+11000

Lightning

+9000

7-6

Senators

+11000

Lightning

+10000

8-1

Senators

+11000

Lightning

+12000

8-2

Senators

+11000

Lightning

+10000

8-3

Senators

+11000

Lightning

+11000

8-4

Senators

+13000

Lightning

+10000

8-5

Senators

+13000

Lightning

+12500

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

For this game, the sportsbooks’ Moneyline betting odds mean Tampa Bay Lightning are -145 favorites to win and that means a 59% chance of landing a victory. Ottawa Senators are the underdogs at +120 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

The puck line is calculated to be 1.5, while total goals comes in at 6.5. Having a bet on Totals is one of the most popular hockey wagers. If you’re going for Over 6.5, then the odds are -100.

There’s no shortage of betting options, with a wide range of game lines and team props offered for every matchup. Explore the top NHL sportsbooks to find the picks that deliver the best value.

Moneyline

Senators

+120

Lightning

-145

3-Way Moneyline

Senators

+210

Tie

+330

Lightning

+102

Puck Line

Senators +1.5

-213

Lightning -1.5

+172

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-122

Over 6.5

-100

If you have a view on Player Goals, Powerplay Points, Assists, Shots or Goaltender Saves, then the player and goalie prop betting could be up your street. It’s a great way of wagering on individual performance.

Micro betting is something that’s really popular with bettors, with NHL fans essentially being able to bet in-game when it comes to team and player props. Sometimes these are lines where you can wager on Shots or Goals.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Ottawa Senators Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.20 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.70 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.00 goals and allowed 2.20 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.30 pts and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 7.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 7.30 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 4.40 goals and allowed 3.50 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.90 goals and allowed 3.40 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 29.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 3.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 8.1
• Blocks: 13.8
• Faceoff Wins : 28
• Hits: 25.1
• Giveaways: 14.7
• Takeaways: 5.2

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 30.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 9.4
• Blocks: 13.1
• Faceoff Wins : 26.6
• Hits: 20.8
• Giveaways: 14.1
• Takeaways: 4.8

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 27.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 5.2
• Empty Net Goals: 0.5
• Penalty Minutes: 15.1
• Blocks: 16.4
• Faceoff Wins : 27.2
• Hits: 21.6
• Giveaways: 14.7
• Takeaways: 3.7

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 30.7
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 20.5
• Blocks: 15.6
• Faceoff Wins : 28.9
• Hits: 24.3
• Giveaways: 14
• Takeaways: 3.9

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Where to Bet on Ice Hockey Games

Top Ice Hockey Pages