Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds | 20 Apr 2025

WC1 Ottawa Senators (45-30-7, 18-19-4 Away) play East Atlantic winners Toronto Maple Leafs (52-26-4, 27-13-1 at Home) in this Stanley Cup Playoffs first round game at Scotiabank Arena.

There are attractive odds about the Maple Leafs and our prediction is for them to benefit from home-ice advantage and win in 60 minutes. They can get the better of the Senators and you can get +104.

Ottawa Senators have lost their previous two on the road. Their most recent game was at home at Canadian Tire Centre where they recorded a 7-5 victory over Carolina Hurricanes. Tim Stutzle landed 3 points, featuring 1 goal and 2 assists.

Toronto Maple Leafs last game was a 4-3 (OT) victory over Detroit Red Wings at Scotiabank Arena. That means it’s now been seven home wins on the spin. The goals were shared around between four players including Christopher Tanev.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last head-to-head saw the Sens claim a 4-2 win over the Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. It’s been five victories on the bounce for the Sens when playing the Leafs. On the head-to-head front, they have won 7 of the past 10.

Starting Goalies

Linus Ullmark (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	23-11-8	2.9	.886	2
23/24	22-10-5	2.57	.915	2

Anthony Stolarz (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	10-9-3	3.3	.893	0
23/24	16-7-1	2.03	.925	2

6 wins, 2 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 3.2 goals from 30.0 shots on goal, with a 18.0% powerplay efficiency. The Sens have been giving up 2.6 goals from 29.5 shots, averaging 3.1 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 87.1%.

Thomas Chabot is the top points scorer with 10 points, 3 goals and 7 assists, with Drake Batherson recording 9 points, 5 goals and 4 assists, over the past 10 games. Goalie Anton Forsberg have a 2.57 goal against average with a .918 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Leafs have 9 wins and 1 loss, averaging 3.2 goals from 25.8 shots on goal, with a 6.7% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 1.5 goals from 30.0 shots, averaging 3.4 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 82.4%.

The top points scorer is Mitchell Marner with 13 points, 5 goals and 8 assists, while Auston Matthews is next in line after having 12 points, 5 goals and 7 assists. Goalie Anthony Stolarz have a 0.99 GAA with a .965 SV%, including three shutouts.

Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks

Game Prediction

We think that Toronto Maple Leafs should prove too strong in this NHL clash. Therefore, we’re confidently wagering them to win in 60 minutes and there’s juice in the +104 available.

Our expert NHL handicappers study the latest form, while injuries can also affect the potential outcome. Before coming up with a verdict, we combine this data with the latest player and goalie stats.

Key Senators vs Maple Leafs stats:

• Maple Leafs have won 5 of their last 5 games.
• Maple Leafs have won 9 of their last 10 games.
• Maple Leafs have won 7 consecutive games at home this season.
• Senators have lost 3 of their last 5 games on the road.
• Senators have lost 15 of their last 26 games on the road this season.
• Senators have lost their last 2 games on the road.

Leafs 3-Way Moneyline Probability

The sportsbooks make it a 49% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. Based on our in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be 55-60%. It is therefore regarded as a value wager.

We regularly consider a Match Winner & Total Goals wager as a way of backing Toronto at bigger odds. You simply need to decide whether to go Over or Under as part of the combo.

Our Game Prediction

Maple Leafs 3-Way Moneyline @ +104 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Apr 19, 21:43). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Drake Batherson Over 1.5 Shots -200

Drake Batherson (Senators) has fired Over 1.5 shots on goal in 5 straight games. If you agree with our verdict that he can cover the line again, then you can land odds of -200 that this happens.

Latest Drake Batherson Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+230

First

+1200

Shots on Goal

Over 1.5

-200

Under 1.5

+150

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Senators 1 - 4 Maple Leafs

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Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The Toronto Maple Leafs odds have been priced up by the sportsbooks and they are -169 betting favorites to land victory in this game which means a 63% chance of winning. Ottawa Senators are the underdogs at +140 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

The puck line is 1.5 and total goals is 5.5. Having a bet on Totals is one of the most popular NHL wagers. If you want to wager Over 5.5, there are odds of -112.

There are a wide range of team props and game lines when it comes to wagering on the National Hockey League and we recommend visiting the leading betting sites to find the wager that matches your view on the clash.

Moneyline

Senators

+140

Maple Leafs

-169

3-Way Moneyline

Senators

+235

Tie

+310

Maple Leafs

-105

Puck Line

Senators +1.5

-192

Maple Leafs -1.5

+152

Total Goals

Under 5.5

-108

Over 5.5

-112

Auston Matthews is the market leader at +650 to be the First Goalscorer. Should you think he will score the last goal, then a similar price can be found.

Player Goals

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

First

+104

Anytime

+650

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

First

+150

Anytime

+850

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

First

+200

Anytime

+1100

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

First

+205

Anytime

+1100

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

First

+215

Anytime

+1150

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

First

+225

Anytime

+1200

Drake Batherson (Senators)

First

+230

Anytime

+1200

Tim Stützle (Senators)

First

+255

Anytime

+1300

Dylan Cozens (Senators)

First

+300

Anytime

+1500

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

First

+340

Anytime

+1600

Ridly Greig (Senators)

First

+380

Anytime

+1800

Claude Giroux (Senators)

First

+380

Anytime

+1800

Max Domi (Maple Leafs)

First

+400

Anytime

+1900

Scott Laughton (Maple Leafs)

First

+410

Anytime

+1900

Shane Pinto (Senators)

First

+410

Anytime

+1900

David Perron (Senators)

First

+410

Anytime

+1900

Nicholas Robertson (Maple Leafs)

First

+440

Anytime

+2000

Calle Järnkrok (Maple Leafs)

First

+450

Anytime

+2000

Jake Sanderson (Senators)

First

+475

Anytime

+2200

Alexander Steeves (Maple Leafs)

First

+480

Anytime

+2200

Pontus Holmberg (Maple Leafs)

First

+480

Anytime

+2200

Fabian Zetterlund (Senators)

First

+500

Anytime

+2200

Adam Gaudette (Senators)

First

+500

Anytime

+2200

Michael Amadio (Senators)

First

+510

Anytime

+2200

Player Shots

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

Over 3.5

-114

Under 3.5

-114

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

Over 3.5

-125

Under 3.5

-105

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

-143

Under 2.5

+110

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

+150

Under 2.5

-200

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

+120

Under 2.5

-156

Jake Sanderson (Senators)

Over 2.5

+140

Under 2.5

-185

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-175

Under 1.5

+135

Drake Batherson (Senators)

Over 1.5

-200

Under 1.5

+150

Tim Stützle (Senators)

Over 1.5

-156

Under 1.5

+120

Dylan Cozens (Senators)

Over 1.5

-185

Under 1.5

+140

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-156

Under 1.5

+120

Claude Giroux (Senators)

Over 1.5

-110

Under 1.5

-118

Micro betting is something that’s really popular with bettors, with NHL fans essentially being able to bet in-game when it comes to team and player props. Sometimes these are lines where you can wager on Shots or Goals.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Ottawa Senators Stats

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 2 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.60 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 7.30 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.30 goals and allowed 2.30 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.40 pts and allowed 3.90 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.50 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 7.40 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.60 goals and allowed 3.90 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.80 goals and allowed 3.60 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 28.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.4
• Penalty Minutes: 7.5
• Blocks: 12.5
• Faceoff Wins : 30.2
• Hits: 24.2
• Giveaways: 14
• Takeaways: 6.2

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 27.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.9
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 10.2
• Blocks: 11.3
• Faceoff Wins : 27.8
• Hits: 21.7
• Giveaways: 13.6
• Takeaways: 4.8

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 29.3
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 2.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 4.9
• Blocks: 13.4
• Faceoff Wins : 29.5
• Hits: 20.6
• Giveaways: 15.3
• Takeaways: 5.1

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 27.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 6.9
• Blocks: 11.7
• Faceoff Wins : 30.6
• Hits: 23.5
• Giveaways: 14
• Takeaways: 4.5

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

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