Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds | 28 Feb 2026

NHL Betting Preview: Senators vs Maple Leafs

The Ottawa Senators meet the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:00 on Saturday, February 28.

The Senators and the Maple Leafs should be able to light the lamp multiple times and that leads us to backing the -141 that there are Over 5.5 goals.

Ottawa Senators were defeated in their previous game. They were beaten at home to Detroit Red Wings by a 2-1 (OT) scoreline at Canadian Tire Centre. Sens racked up 27 shots and Brady Tkachuk bagged the only goal.

Toronto Maple Leafs have lost five consecutive games at home. In their last appearance, they suffered a 5-1 road defeat against Florida Panthers at Amerant Bank Arena. Leafs had 29 shots and John Tavares scored the only goal.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Leafs have claimed back-to-back victories over the Sens. At Canadian Tire Centre they won 4-2 before winning 7-5 at Scotiabank Arena. Both teams have five wins on the board when we look at the 10-game H2H record.

Starting Goalies

Linus Ullmark (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	16-8-6	2.8	.884	1
23/24	22-10-5	2.57	.915	2

Joseph Woll (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	13-8-4	2.9	.909	2
23/24	12-11-1	2.93	.907	0

6 wins, 3 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.3 goals from 28.5 shots on goal, with a 14.3% powerplay efficiency. The Sens have been giving up 2.3 goals from 20.4 shots, averaging 3.1 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 83.9%.

Tim Stutzle is the top points scorer with 13 points, 7 goals and 6 assists, with Brady Tkachuk racking up 11 points, 5 goals and 6 assists, in the last 10 games. Goalie James Reimer have a 2.71 goal against average with a .867 save percentage.

The Leafs have 3 wins, 6 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 2.5 goals from 29.3 shots on goal, with a 27.3% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 3.9 goals from 33.1 shots, averaging 2.3 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 91.3%.

The top points scorer is Max Domi with 8 points, 3 goals and 5 assists, while Auston Matthews is next best after registering 8 points, 1 goal and 7 assists. Goalie Joseph Woll have a 2.98 GAA with a .911 SV%.

Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks

We’ve got your Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs bets covered, including our expert match prediction, correct score recommendation and a hand-picked bet builder tailored for value.

Game Prediction

We’ve found some value for this NHL encounter as we expect the lamp to be lit at least six times. It means that Overs could be on the cards and that is available at -141.

Recent form is always part of the equation and we combine it with team news as soon as it’s available. To deliver expert hockey picks, our handicappers also analyze the latest NHL stats to ensure we’re working with the best information possible.

Key Senators vs Maple Leafs stats:

• The 5.5 line has been covered in 6 of the last 10 Senators games on the road.
• The 5.5 line has been covered in 12 of the last 20 Senators games on the road.
• The 5.5 line has been covered in the last 4 Maple Leafs games.
• The 5.5 line has been covered in 7 of the last 10 Maple Leafs games.
• The 5.5 line has been covered in 14 of the last 20 Maple Leafs games.
• The 5.5 line has been covered in the last 2 games between these teams.

Over 5.5 Probability

According to the top betting sites, there’s a 58.5% chance of our pick landing a return. Based on our in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be 65-70%. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.

There’s an opportunity to place a Bet Builder which includes an Over leg along with other selections. The odds for each pick combine to give you a potentially bigger payout.

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Our Game Prediction

Over 5.5 Goals @ -141 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Feb 27, 23:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Senators 5 - 3 Maple Leafs

The Senators are available to back at +2200 to secure a 5-3 victory. This is a risky but potentially more rewarding bet, with this correct score option providing appeal.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Senators

Maple Leafs

1-0

Senators

+5000

Maple Leafs

+5000

2-0

Senators

+4500

Maple Leafs

+4500

2-1

Senators

+1400

Maple Leafs

+1400

3-0

Senators

+3300

Maple Leafs

+3300

3-1

Senators

+1800

Maple Leafs

+1900

3-2

Senators

+850

Maple Leafs

+850

4-0

Senators

+4000

Maple Leafs

+4000

4-1

Senators

+1500

Maple Leafs

+1600

4-2

Senators

+1500

Maple Leafs

+1600

4-3

Senators

+1000

Maple Leafs

+1050

5-0

Senators

+7000

Maple Leafs

+7500

5-1

Senators

+2500

Maple Leafs

+2800

5-2

Senators

+1700

Maple Leafs

+1800

5-3

Senators

+2200

Maple Leafs

+2400

5-4

Senators

+2000

Maple Leafs

+2000

6-0

Senators

+10000

Maple Leafs

+11000

6-1

Senators

+5500

Maple Leafs

+6600

6-2

Senators

+3000

Maple Leafs

+3500

6-3

Senators

+2900

Maple Leafs

+3300

6-4

Senators

+5000

Maple Leafs

+5000

6-5

Senators

+5000

Maple Leafs

+5000

7-1

Senators

+10000

Maple Leafs

+11000

7-2

Senators

+8000

Maple Leafs

+9000

7-3

Senators

+5500

Maple Leafs

+6600

7-4

Senators

+6600

Maple Leafs

+7000

7-5

Senators

+11000

Maple Leafs

+11000

7-6

Senators

+12000

Maple Leafs

+12000

8-2

Senators

+13000

Maple Leafs

+14000

8-3

Senators

+13000

Maple Leafs

+14000

8-4

Senators

+12000

Maple Leafs

+12500

8-5

Senators

+14000

Maple Leafs

+14000

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Toronto Maple Leafs have been given Moneyline odds of -102 against Ottawa Senators who are -118. The hosts have a 51% chance of victory in the eyes of the leading sportsbooks.

1.5 is where the puck line lies, with total goals being 5.5 right now. A Totals wager is always available and can often provide value selections. The Over 5.5 selection is available to back at -139.

Every National Hockey League matchup brings hundreds of team props and game lines to explore, with the top betting apps delivering a deep lineup of pre-game and in-game markets.

Moneyline

Senators

-118

Maple Leafs

-102

3-Way Moneyline

Senators

+138

Tie

+320

Maple Leafs

+155

Puck Line

Senators -1.5

+210

Maple Leafs +1.5

-263

Total Goals

Under 5.5

+112

Over 5.5

-139

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Ottawa Senators Stats

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 2 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.60 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 7.30 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.30 goals and allowed 2.30 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.40 pts and allowed 3.90 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.50 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 7.40 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.60 goals and allowed 3.90 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.80 goals and allowed 3.60 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 28.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.4
• Penalty Minutes: 7.5
• Blocks: 12.5
• Faceoff Wins : 30.2
• Hits: 24.2
• Giveaways: 14
• Takeaways: 6.2

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 27.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.9
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 10.2
• Blocks: 11.3
• Faceoff Wins : 27.8
• Hits: 21.7
• Giveaways: 13.6
• Takeaways: 4.8

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 29.3
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 2.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 4.9
• Blocks: 13.4
• Faceoff Wins : 29.5
• Hits: 20.6
• Giveaways: 15.3
• Takeaways: 5.1

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 27.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 6.9
• Blocks: 11.7
• Faceoff Wins : 30.6
• Hits: 23.5
• Giveaways: 14
• Takeaways: 4.5

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

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