Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 28 Feb 2026

NHL Betting Preview: Sabres vs Lightning

The Buffalo Sabres meet the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:00 on Saturday, February 28.

The prediction is that the Lightning will have the edge over the Sabres in regulation time, with odds of -143 currently available on the 3-Way Moneyline. That looks a price worth taking on this value selection.

Buffalo Sabres won their previous game 3-2. This road victory at Amerant Bank Arena against Florida Panthers was their second on the spin. Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs and Beck Malenstyn scored one goal each. Goalie Alex Lyon was red hot in the net, stopping 28 shots (.966).

Tampa Bay Lightning have won eleven consecutive games at home. In their last appearance, they suffered a 5-4 road defeat against Carolina Hurricanes at Lenovo Center. The goals were shared around between four players including Nikita Kucherov.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Lightning have claimed consecutive wins over the Sabres. Both victories were achieved at Benchmark International Arena, with a 7-4 followed by a 4-3 (OT) scoreline. The past 10 games between the teams have seen the Sabres win six times.

Starting Goalies

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	22-9-3	2.5	.909	1
23/24	27-22-4	2.57	.910	5

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	39-15-4	2.3	.911	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

7 wins, 2 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.7 goals from 28.1 shots on goal, with a 18.0% powerplay efficiency. The Sabres have given up 2.6 goals from 31.8 shots, averaging 3.5 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 85.7%.

Rasmus Dahlin is the top points scorer with 12 points, 4 goals and 8 assists, with Tage Thompson racking up 11 points, 5 goals and 6 assists, over the last 10 games. Goalie Alex Lyon have a 2.03 goal against average with a .939 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Lightning have 8 wins and 2 losses, averaging 3.9 goals from 32.0 shots on goal, with a 17.3% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 2.7 goals from 28.6 shots, averaging 4.7 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 87.2%.

The top points scorer is Nikita Kucherov with 25 points, 7 goals and 18 assists, while Jake Guentzel is next in line after having 14 points, 5 goals and 9 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 1.70 GAA with a .937 SV%, including one shutout.

Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

Our expert Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning betting tips include a main match prediction, a correct score pick, standout player prop selections and bet builder advice. Explore each section below for detailed insights.

Game Prediction

There is -143 available when it comes to Tampa Bay Lightning on the 60-minute line. We believe that our pick has a strong chance of winning this NHL clash and the odds makes lots of appeal.

We closely track recent form and look for patterns that may impact the outcome. The same goes for injuries to key players. When combined with the most relevant NHL stats, this gives us a strong foundation for accurate hockey predictions.

Key Sabres vs Lightning stats:

• Lightning have won 11 consecutive games at home.
• Lightning have won 17 of their last 20 games.
• Lightning have won the last 2 games between these teams.

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline Probability

The best betting sites are estimating that there is a 58.8% likelihood of this pick winning. However, our analysts have this number between 65-70% based on their in-depth research. It’s the reason why we are recommending this hockey bet.

If you want bigger odds with your 3-Way Moneyline bet, then you can combine this pick with other selections as part of a Bet Builder until you’re happy with the price.

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Our Game Prediction

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline @ -143 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Feb 28, 00:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Jack Quinn Over 1.5 Shots -189

Jack Quinn (Sabres) has recorded Over 1.5 shots on goal in 6 straight games. Out of all the prop bets available, we’re going to take the -189 when it comes to this Shots on Goal wager.

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Sabres 2 - 3 Lightning

We’re taking a chance on the Lightning to achieve a 3-2 winning scoreline. Odds of +850 means we can place a smaller stake and still achieve a nice return.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Sabres

Lightning

1-0

Sabres

+7000

Lightning

+5500

2-0

Sabres

+7000

Lightning

+4500

2-1

Sabres

+2000

Lightning

+1500

3-0

Sabres

+6000

Lightning

+2800

3-1

Sabres

+2900

Lightning

+1700

3-2

Sabres

+1150

Lightning

+850

4-0

Sabres

+8000

Lightning

+3000

4-1

Sabres

+2900

Lightning

+1200

4-2

Sabres

+2200

Lightning

+1300

4-3

Sabres

+1200

Lightning

+900

5-0

Sabres

+14000

Lightning

+4500

5-1

Sabres

+5000

Lightning

+1700

5-2

Sabres

+2800

Lightning

+1200

5-3

Sabres

+3000

Lightning

+1800

5-4

Sabres

+2200

Lightning

+1600

6-0

Sabres

+2200

Lightning

+6600

6-1

Sabres

+12000

Lightning

+3300

6-2

Sabres

+5500

Lightning

+2000

6-3

Sabres

+4000

Lightning

+2000

6-4

Sabres

+5500

Lightning

+3500

6-5

Sabres

+5000

Lightning

+4000

7-0

Sabres

+5000

Lightning

+10000

7-1

Sabres

+5000

Lightning

+5500

7-2

Sabres

+14000

Lightning

+4500

7-3

Sabres

+9000

Lightning

+3500

7-4

Sabres

+8000

Lightning

+4500

7-5

Sabres

+11000

Lightning

+8000

7-6

Sabres

+11000

Lightning

+9000

8-0

Sabres

+11000

Lightning

+14000

8-1

Sabres

+11000

Lightning

+9000

8-2

Sabres

+11000

Lightning

+7500

8-3

Sabres

+11000

Lightning

+8000

8-4

Sabres

+11000

Lightning

+8000

8-5

Sabres

+11000

Lightning

+10000

9-1

Sabres

+11000

Lightning

+14000

9-2

Sabres

+11000

Lightning

+12500

9-3

Sabres

+11000

Lightning

+13000

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The sportsbooks are taking no chances with their Moneyline odds of -238 about Tampa Bay Lightning which reflects they have a 70% chance of winning this game. At +195, Buffalo Sabres are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

The puck line is calculated to be 1.5, while total goals comes in at 6.5. Hockey fans love the chance to get an alternative angle by going for a Totals wager. If you want to back Over 6.5, it’s -102.

Consider every angle when placing your National Hockey League wagers. The best betting apps have a huge selection of team props and game lines and it’s all about finding a bet which matches your prediction of the matchup.

Moneyline

Sabres

+195

Lightning

-238

3-Way Moneyline

Sabres

+320

Tie

+350

Lightning

-143

Puck Line

Sabres +1.5

-133

Lightning -1.5

+108

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-120

Over 6.5

-102

We’re fond of player props as an alternative to betting on the game lines. The gambling sites will have Shots, Blocked Shots, Goals, Assists and Goaltender Saves among the choices and you can take a particular view.

Micro betting is something that’s really popular with bettors, with NHL fans essentially being able to bet in-game when it comes to team and player props. Sometimes these are lines where you can wager on Shots or Goals.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Buffalo Sabres Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 10 wins and 0 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.30 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 6.30 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.70 goals and allowed 2.60 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 4.00 pts and allowed 2.30 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.80 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.30 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 4.10 goals and allowed 2.70 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 4.30 goals and allowed 2.00 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 28.1
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.5
• Penalty Minutes: 9.4
• Blocks: 13.4
• Faceoff Wins : 24.8
• Hits: 17.8
• Giveaways: 16.6
• Takeaways: 5.3

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 25.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 3.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.6
• Penalty Minutes: 6.7
• Blocks: 12
• Faceoff Wins : 22.8
• Hits: 18.7
• Giveaways: 17.1
• Takeaways: 5.8

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.9
• Shots: 32
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 16.2
• Blocks: 13.3
• Faceoff Wins : 29.3
• Hits: 20.3
• Giveaways: 16.1
• Takeaways: 4.2

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 29.7
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 17.6
• Blocks: 13.4
• Faceoff Wins : 26.7
• Hits: 19.6
• Giveaways: 14.7
• Takeaways: 4.1

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

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